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| The probability of a recession hitting the US economy is rising after a flurry of signals have flashed in recent weeks and months. |
| 在近期（最近几周和数月内）一系列信号亮起后，美国经济陷入衰退的可能性正在上升。 |
| That's according to economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research, who compiled a list of recessionary indicators in a note on Friday. |
| 美国罗森伯格研究公司总裁大卫·罗森伯格在8月30日发布的一份报告中汇编了一份衰退指标清单。 |
| "What is the best recession indicator? That's a hard question to answer — why not dodge it completely and just look at all of them?" Rosenberg asked. |
| 他提出：“最准确的衰退指标是什么？这是一个很难回答的问题——为什么不避开这个问题，看看所有这些指标呢？” |
| According to Rosenberg, some worrying signals have historically only flashed on the precipice of an economic downturn. |
| 罗森伯格表示，在历史上，一些令人担忧的信号只有在经济即将陷入衰退时才会出现。 |
| "The 'indicator of indicators' indicates recession," Rosenberg said. |
| 罗森伯格称：“‘指标的指标’预示着经济衰退。” |
| Of the 20 recession indicators compiled by Rosenberg, nine have been triggered. |
| 罗森伯格编制的20个衰退指标中，有9个已经触发。 |
| Some of the recession signals that have flashed include the Sahm Rule, the Leading Economic Indicator Index, and the inverted yield curve, among others. |
| 被触发的衰退指标包括萨姆规则、先行指数和倒挂的收益率曲线等。 |
| "Currently, 45% of the recession indicators we tracked have been triggered. Going back to 1999, that's never happened without a recession occurring," Rosenberg said. |
| 罗森伯格说：“目前，我们追踪的经济衰退指标中有45%已经触发。自1999年以来，从来没有出现这种情况而不发生衰退的。” |
| The list of signals flashing has steadily risen since 2022, when only 10% were triggered. That rose to about 25% in 2023 and the first half of 2024. |
| 自2022年以来，预示美国经济陷入衰退的信号数量一直都在稳步上升，当时只有10%被触发。2023年和2024年上半年，这一比例上升到了25%左右。 |
| But since then, the recession warnings have been growing. |
| 而自那以后，关于美国经济衰退的警告越来越多。 |
| "Sometimes more is more, and this is a case in point. Looking at recession thresholds across different sectors of the economy makes it clear that something has been changing since mid-2024 — the long-anticipated slowdown may finally be arriving," Rosenberg said. |
| 罗森伯格说：“有时更多就是更多，这就是一个很好的例证。观察不同经济部门的衰退阈值可以清楚地看出，自2024年中期以来，一些事情一直在发生变化——经济衰退可能真的要来了。” |
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