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| The probability of a recession hitting the US economy is rising after a flurry of signals have flashed in recent weeks and months. |
| That's according to economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research, who compiled a list of recessionary indicators in a note on Friday. |
| "What is the best recession indicator? That's a hard question to answer — why not dodge it completely and just look at all of them?" Rosenberg asked. |
| According to Rosenberg, some worrying signals have historically only flashed on the precipice of an economic downturn. |
| "The 'indicator of indicators' indicates recession," Rosenberg said. |
| Of the 20 recession indicators compiled by Rosenberg, nine have been triggered. |
| Some of the recession signals that have flashed include the Sahm Rule, the Leading Economic Indicator Index, and the inverted yield curve, among others. |
| "Currently, 45% of the recession indicators we tracked have been triggered. Going back to 1999, that's never happened without a recession occurring," Rosenberg said. |
| The list of signals flashing has steadily risen since 2022, when only 10% were triggered. That rose to about 25% in 2023 and the first half of 2024. |
| But since then, the recession warnings have been growing. |
| "Sometimes more is more, and this is a case in point. Looking at recession thresholds across different sectors of the economy makes it clear that something has been changing since mid-2024 — the long-anticipated slowdown may finally be arriving," Rosenberg said. |
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