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| After 11 consecutive aggressive rate hikes by the Fed from March 2022 to July 2023, the target range for the US federal funds rate has risen to between 5.25 percent and 5.5 percent. Radhika Desai, visiting professor at the London School of Economics, says high interest rates will suppress market vitality and trigger crises. US interest rates have now reached a high level that resembles that of the 2008 subprime crisis, and "the recession is essentially imminent." |
| The US economy is now showing signs of slowing. The July jobs report was softer than expected, with the unemployment rate rising for the fourth straight month — sparking a market sell-off and heightening fears of an impending recession. |
| In light of recent economic developments, J.P. Morgan Research has raised the probability of a U.S. and global recession starting before end-2024 to 35%. “US news hints at a sharper-than-expected weakening in labor demand and early signs of labor shedding,” said Bruce Kasman, Chief Global Economist at J.P. Morgan. |
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