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| Sourabh Gupta, a senior fellow at the Institute for China-American Studies in Washington, said the large-volume green products China was providing more cheaply than others "will go a long way to facing down the climate challenge, especially as these products go mainstream in developing countries where the vast body of humanity lives". |
| "Even more impressive than the provision of these large-volume, low-price green products is the Chinese government's resolve to stand behind and support the creation of markets at scale for these products, such that many renewables and green products are cost-competitive today or likely to be cost-competitive soon with the more emissions-heavy products that dominate the marketplace currently." |
| Yellen has her reasons for leveling the allegations against China regarding overcapacity and dumping in foreign markets, Gupta said. "China is moving away from that overinvestment model, but the level of domestic savings remains excessively high. As such, there are understandable fears that these savings will macroeconomically manifest themselves in the form of domestic overproduction dumped overseas in export markets. |
| "Of course, balanced against this argument is the fact that China enjoys real comparative as well as competitive advantages in many of the product groups which it is now being accused of dumping," Gupta said, pointing out that China's lead in EVs and the battery sector is the result of innovation and highly competitive capabilities. |
| The Chinese government was wise, via its industrial policy planning, to be an early mover to incubate these industries of the future at scale, he said. "Yellen's statements and the Joe Biden administration's approach involve double standards and protectionism. There is also more complexity." |
| The US has already found additional ways to exclude Chinese goods from its marketplace, he said, whether via the import route or the foreign direct investment route, drawing on its "foreign entity of concern" rules contained in the CHIPS Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. |
| "These rules will be enforced aggressively. That said, the latter two pieces of legislation do contain exemption pockets to enable qualifying China-originating components or licensed items to enter the US marketplace, particularly where alternatives to Chinese content in these green products and industries of the future do not exist. But by and large, the US goal is to minimize the scope of such content and, over the longer run", eliminate or desensitize these supply chains of China-originating content. |
| US subsidies for EVs clearly violate WTO rules, Gupta said, and it is only a matter of time before a panel in Geneva finds them to violate US multilateral trade commitments. |
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