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| China should aim for an economic expansion of "around 5 percent" for 2024, as that will help boost confidence and revive its recovery momentum, Bloomberg Economics' chief economist Tom Orlik said. |
| "I think a target of around 5 percent is probably sufficiently ambitious to boost confidence for businesses, and it is not too stretching so as to avoid the risk of overinvestment and over-stimulus," he told China Daily in an exclusive interview. |
| Orlik said China has the scope to keep monetary and fiscal policy supportive to help bolster recovery of the economy. |
| In the monetary realm, a further reduction in the reserve requirement ratio as well as policy rate cuts will be likely in the following months, he said. |
| Orlik said a forceful fiscal policy will play a bigger role in stimulating domestic demand. |
| The focus should be on spurring household spending and stimulating the development of emerging fields, including providing subsidies for households and increasing spending on city transport and green transition. |
| "I think the big remaining opportunity for China in terms of delivering stimulus is to leverage the central government's balance sheet. And that means a bigger fiscal deficit and a bigger role for fiscal policy in driving growth," he said. |
| Considering stronger policy support, pressure from a real estate downturn, and slowing global growth, Orlik anticipates that China's economy will expand by around 4.5 percent in 2024. |
| He said booming emerging fields, such as electric vehicles, sustainable energy and high-speed railways, will offer continued growth opportunities for the Chinese economy. |
| Orlik also expressed optimism about China's medium -and long-term development prospects, saying there is huge growth potential. "China's overall GDP per capita is just one-third of the level in Japan, so China is still a middle-income country. That means there's a huge amount of development space left." |
| Going forward, Orlik said China will remain one of the biggest contributors to global growth, creating significant opportunities around the world. |
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