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| Heavy fire from rooftops and booby-trapped apartments. Armor-piercing projectiles blowing up troop carriers. Fighters blending in with civilians, launching drone ambushes, or surging from tunnels full of enough ammunition, food and water to sustain a long war. | 来自屋顶的猛烈火力和布设了诡雷的公寓。穿甲弹炸毁运兵车。战斗人员混进平民之中，发动无人机伏击，或者从地道中冲出来，那些地道里储备了足以支撑一场长期战争的弹药、食物和水。 |
| As the Israeli Army gathers tanks at the Gaza border for a threatened invasion aimed at crushing Hamas, experts are warning that the country’s troops could face some of the fiercest street-to-street combat since World War II in Gaza City and other densely packed areas. | 当以色列军队在加沙边境集结坦克，准备一场其宣称将致力于摧毁哈马斯的入侵之际，专家警告称，在加沙城和其他人口密集地区，以色列军队可能会面临“二战”以来最激烈的巷战。 |
| Urban warfare studies and American officials offer dire comparisons to Iraq: Think of Falluja in 2004, the most intense battles that American troops had faced since Vietnam, or the nine-month fight to defeat the Islamic State in Mosul in 2016, which led to 10,000 civilian deaths. Then multiply the destructive toll, possibly exponentially. | 城市战研究人员和美国官员将其与伊拉克进行了可怕的比较：想想2004年的费卢杰，那是美国军队自越战以来经历的最激烈的战斗，或者是2016年在摩苏尔击败伊斯兰国的战斗，那次战斗持续了九个月，导致一万名平民死亡。然后再把造成的毁灭性损失加倍，甚至是指数级增加。 |
| Hamas has three to five times as many fighters — perhaps 40,000 in all — as the Islamic State had in Mosul. It can draw reserves from a young, restive population, and has international support from countries like Iran. Even on its own, Hamas’s leadership has had years to prepare for battle across Gaza, including in city streets, where the superiority of tanks and precise munitions can be stymied by guerrilla tactics. | 哈马斯拥有的战斗人员数量是伊斯兰国在摩苏尔的三到五倍，总数可能达到4万人。它可以从年轻而焦躁的人口中获取后备人员，并得到伊朗等国的国际支持。哈马斯领导层自己就为加沙地带的战斗做了多年的准备，包括在城市街道的战斗，在那里，坦克和精确弹药的优势可能会被游击战术所阻碍。 |
| “It’s going to be ugly,” said Lt. Col. Thomas Arnold, a U.S. Army strategist who has published studies on urban operations in the Middle East. “Cities are the devil’s playground — they make everything infinitely more difficult.” | “局面会很难看，”美国陆军策略师托马斯·阿诺德中校说，他曾发表过关于中东城市作战的研究报告。“城市是魔鬼的游乐场——它们让一切变得无限困难。” |
| Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, has vowed to “demolish Hamas.” Without sharply defining what that means, he pledged to remove the group from Gaza after its Oct. 7 attack on Israel killed 1,400 people and led to the kidnapping of more than 200 others. | 以色列总理内塔尼亚胡誓言要“摧毁哈马斯”。在哈马斯10月7日袭击以色列导致1400人死亡、200多人被绑架之后，他承诺将该组织清除出加沙，但没有明确定义这意味着什么。 |
| But Gaza, heavily urbanized, with Hamas deeply entrenched, is an especially complex battlefield. Concerned about the challenges ahead, the Biden administration has sent senior military officers to provide advice to the Israelis, based on their own experiences in Iraq, while pressing Israel to delay the invasion, to leave more time to negotiate the release of hostages taken by Hamas and to deliver more humanitarian aid. American officials worry that Israel lacks a plan with clear, achievable objectives that would prevent an enormous loss of life among Gaza’s more than two million Palestinian civilians. | 但哈马斯在高度城市化的加沙已经深深扎下根，使之成为一个格外复杂的战场。出于对未来挑战的担忧，拜登政府已派出高级军官，根据他们在伊拉克的经验，向以色列提供建议，同时敦促以色列推迟入侵，留出更多时间，就被哈马斯劫持的人质的释放事宜进行谈判，并提供更多人道主义援助。美国官员担心，以色列缺乏一个明确的、可实现的目标，去防止加沙200多万巴勒斯坦平民遭受巨大生命损失。 |
| “I’ve encouraged them to conduct their operations in accordance with the law of war,” Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said on Sunday. | “我鼓励他们依据战争法的规定开展行动，”美国国防部长劳埃德·J·奥斯汀三世周日说。 |
| With history as a guide, three factors would most likely shape a ground war in Gaza’s cities: the urban environment, the interaction between fighters and civilians, and political pressures. | 以史为鉴，有三个因素最有可能影响加沙城市的地面战争：城市环境、战斗人员与平民之间的互动以及政治压力。 |
| The Landscape | 城市环境 |
| The Gaza Strip is about 140 square miles, a narrow band slightly larger in area than Las Vegas, with a cluster of urban population centers. Gaza City, the capital, has around 700,000 people packed into around 20 square miles, with more tall buildings than U.S.-led forces faced in the battle for Mosul, creating a more dangerous three-dimensional front. | 加沙地带面积约为360平方公里，是一个比拉斯维加斯略大的狭长地带，有多个城市人口中心。首府加沙城的50平方公里内聚集了大约70万人，高大建筑比美国为首的联军在摩苏尔战役中遇到的还要多，形成了一个更加危险的立体前线。 |
| Many urban invasions — from the Middle Ages to modernity — have started off with a rapid advance, only to later bog down in districts that favor defenders. Mosul is a prime example; another is last year’s siege of Mariupol. A few thousand Ukrainian soldiers held the city for nearly three months against an advancing Russian force five to eight times as large. | 从中世纪到现代，许多城市入侵都以快速推进开始，但后来却在有利于防御者的地区陷入僵局。摩苏尔就是一个典型的例子；另一个例子是去年马里乌波尔的围攻战。数千名乌克兰士兵在这座城市里，与规模是他们五到八倍的俄罗斯军队对峙了近三个月。 |
| “They leveraged the city’s heavy-clad, industrial buildings and its subterranean network very effectively,” John W. Spencer, chair of urban warfare studies with the Modern War Institute at the U.S. Military Academy, wrote in a report about the first year of the Ukraine war. | “他们非常有效地利用了这座城市厚重的工业建筑及其地下网络，”美国军事学院现代战争研究所城市战争研究主任约翰·斯宾塞在一份关于乌克兰战争第一年的报告中写道。 |
| Cities can also be malleable. Israel has destroyed hundreds of Gaza buildings in airstrikes. Hamas, long before its assault on Israel this month, had built hundreds of miles of tunnels under Gaza City that can be used to move between attack positions, hide hostages and protect supplies. | 城市也可以是可塑的。以色列在空袭中摧毁了数百座加沙建筑。早在本月袭击以色列之前，哈马斯就在加沙城地下修建了数百公里的隧道，可以用来在攻击地点之间移动、隐藏人质和保护物资。 |
| Additional surprises — rocket factories under schools; weapons stored in mosques — are likely to be found if Israel invades. | 如果以色列发动入侵，很可能会发现更多意外情况——学校下面的火箭工厂；储存在清真寺的武器。 |
| “Cities can mitigate your technological advantages,” said Colonel Arnold, who is completing a Ph.D. at the University of Virginia. “While Israel is biding its time — setting the conditions, dropping buildings, getting its troops ready — the other side is almost certainly getting ready as well.” | “城市可以削弱你的技术优势，”正在弗吉尼亚大学攻读博士学位的阿诺德说。“以色列正在等待时机——创造条件、拆除建筑、让部队做好准备——另一方几乎肯定也在做准备。” |
| The People | 人 |
| Civilian or combatant? Urban warfare tends to blur the line more often, in deadly ways. | 平民还是战斗人员？城市战争往往更容易以致命的方式模糊这条界线。 |
| Israel has already been accused of killing thousands of civilians in air attacks, including 1,200 children, according to the Hamas-run Ministry of Health in Gaza. Those figures could not be independently verified, but the risk to civilians clearly remains high. | 哈马斯管理的加沙卫生部已经指责以色列通过空袭杀害了数以千计平民，其中包括1200名儿童。这些数字无法得到独立核实，但平民面临的风险显然仍然很高。 |
| Even as Israel encourages people in Gaza City to move south to safer areas, many are obeying instructions by Hamas or religious leaders to stay, or saying they cannot afford to go. | 尽管以色列劝说加沙城的居民转移到南部更安全的地区，但许多人还是听从哈马斯或宗教领袖的指示留下来，或者说他们无法负担离开的代价。 |
| It’s a familiar problem. In 2004, the Bush administration gave U.S. Marines only 72 hours to plan an invasion of Falluja after four American contractors were killed, their mutilated bodies lashed to a bridge. Commanders warned that a revenge-driven operation would endanger civilians and fail, and they pulled back after heavy losses, giving Iraqis six months to flee before a second push. | 这是一个常见的问题。2004年，在四名美国承包商工作人员被杀，残缺不全的尸体被绑在一座桥上后，布什政府只给美国海军陆战队72小时的时间来计划入侵费卢杰。指挥官警告说，由报复驱动的行动会危及平民，而且会失败，他们在损失惨重后撤退，给伊拉克人六个月的时间逃离，然后才发动第二次攻势。 |
| An estimated 30,000 to 90,000 stayed. | 估计有3到9万人留了下来。 |
| “A lot of the innocent civilians were not allowed to leave,” said Freddie Blish, a retired U.S. Marine lieutenant colonel who was deployed to Falluja as a combat engineer. “And that’s what’s going to happen with Hamas — they’re going to use them as human shields.” | “很多无辜的平民不被允许离开，”退役海军陆战队中校弗雷迪·布利什说，他是当时被派往费卢杰的一名工程兵。“这就是哈马斯要做的，他们会把这些人当作人肉盾牌。” |
| Israel has emphasized that it does not target civilians. But in urban battles, commanders often take fire from structures housing both fighters and families, forcing a judgment call: clear the rooms with troops, putting them at risk, or call in a heavier response that might kill civilians. | 以色列强调不以平民为攻击目标。但在城市战斗中，指挥官经常会受到来自武装人员和家属居住的建筑物的攻击，迫使他们做出判断——是派出士兵冒着危险去肃清该建筑物的威胁；还是做出可能杀死平民的更猛烈反应。 |
| The tolerance for troop losses tends to decrease as urban warfare drags on. | 随着城市战争的拖延，对部队损失的容忍度往往会下降。 |
| It took 252 days and 100,000 Iraqi troops, with American air support, to rid Mosul of ISIS. Along with 10,000 civilians, 8,200 Iraqi soldiers died, and at least 13,000 buildings were made uninhabitable, according to the United Nations. | 在美国的空中支援下，10万名伊拉克士兵花了252天的时间才将伊斯兰国赶出摩苏尔。联合国的数据显示，除了1万名平民之外，还有8200名伊拉克士兵丧生，至少1.3万幢建筑无法居住。 |
| Israeli troops, while better trained than the Iraqi Army, with years to prepare invasion plans and special engineering units for challenges like tunnels, will face a tougher adversary. | 以色列军队虽然比伊拉克军队更训练有素，多年来都在为入侵计划做准备，并为解决隧道等障碍训练了特殊工程部队，但他们面临的对手也更强悍了。 |
| There were 3,000 to 5,000 ISIS fighters in Mosul at the start of the operation, according to initial U.S. military estimates, and a few thousand more came later. Hamas’s military wing, the Al Qassam Brigades, is estimated to number 30,000 to 40,000, not including thousands of militants with other groups like Palestinian Islamic Jihad. | 据美国军方初步估计，在行动开始时，摩苏尔有3000到5000名伊斯兰国武装分子，后来又增加了几千人。哈马斯的军事部门“卡桑旅”估计有3到4万人，这还不包括“巴勒斯坦伊斯兰圣战运动”等其他组织中成千上万的武装分子。 |
| Most ISIS fighters were also from other countries. Hamas fighters grew up in Gaza. Their units are bonded together by location, family, faith and shared frustration with Israel. | 大多数伊斯兰国武装分子来自其他国家。哈马斯武装分子则在加沙长大。地域、家庭、信仰和对以色列的共同失望将他们的部队紧紧联系到了一起。 |
| “They know the streets, they know the tunnels,” said Mr. Blish, the retired lieutenant colonel. “It’s going to be a tough slog.” | “他们熟悉这些街区和隧道，”退休中校布利什说。“这将是个非常艰巨的过程。” |
| Geopolitics | 地缘政治 |
| Recent wars have rarely gone as quickly as either side expected: Mosul was supposed to be cleared in three months, not nine; Russia expected a rush to victory in Kyiv. And as the death toll mounts and economies crater, international support often weakens. | 近年爆发的战争很少能如交战双方所预期的那样进展迅速：摩苏尔本应在三个月内收复，结果用了九个月时间；俄罗斯以为能迅速打下基辅。随着死亡人数上升和经济的萧条，国际支持往往会随之衰竭。 |
| Ukraine’s leaders know this better than most, but Israel also has experience with the political and military challenge that comes with extended conflict. Israel’s last ground invasion in Gaza, in 2014, lasted less than three weeks. As Mr. Spencer at West Point’s Modern War Institute recently pointed out, Israel “has fought almost every war of its history in a race against time, seeking to achieve its goals before international pressure forces it to stop operations.” | 乌克兰领导人对此再清楚不过，但以色列也有应对长期冲突带来的政治和军事挑战的经验。以色列上一次对加沙进行地面入侵是在2014年，持续时间不到三周。正如西点军校现代战争研究所的斯宾塞最近所言，以色列“历史上的几乎每场战争都是与时间赛跑，努力在国际压力迫使其停止行动之前实现目标”。 |
| In the current case, Israeli officials have warned that they are expecting several months of fighting, if not years. That would mean a spike in demand for weapons, and added global volatility. American officials are worried about the potential for the war to spread to Lebanon and Iran, along with possible attacks on American troops in Iraq. Those concerns could affect how Washington advises Israel as the conflict evolves. | 以色列官员警告称，在当前形势下他们预计战斗将持续数月——甚至可能是数年。这将意味着对武器的需求激增，并加剧全球动荡。美国官员担忧战争可能会蔓延至黎巴嫩和伊朗，驻伊美军也可能遭受袭击。随着冲突演变，这些担忧可能会影响华盛顿对以色列的建议。 |
| In past wars, the Israeli public supported military operations as long as they showed progress, with evidence of destroyed weapons stockpiles and other tangible results. Casualties — 66 Israeli soldiers died in the 2014 war — mattered less than “perceptions of the campaign’s success,” according to a RAND Corporation report from 2017. | 在以往的战争中，军事行动要赢得以色列公众支持的前提是取得进展，能拿出销毁武器库或取得其他切实成果的证据。根据兰德公司在2017年的一份报告，比起“对行动取得成功的认知”，伤亡人数并没有那么重要。2014年的战争中有66名以色列士兵阵亡。 |
| Now, however, polls show that Israelis have less faith in their government under Mr. Netanyahu’s divisive leadership, and after his failure to prevent the recent attack. The definition of success is also broader this time and may be harder to achieve in part because Hamas has grown stronger with Iran’s help, vastly increasing its rocket stockpiles and deploying new technology like drones. | 但如今的民调显示，以色列民众对政府的信心有所下降，因为内塔尼亚胡的统治分裂了社会，他也未能阻止最近的这场袭击。这一次，对军事行动成功的定义也更加宽泛，而这种成功可能更难实现的部分原因在于哈马斯在伊朗的帮助下变得更加强大，火箭弹库存大幅增加，还部署了无人机等新技术。 |
| Hamas and Israel have already engaged in a contest for sympathy that has spurred angry protests around the world and again made the Middle East a source of international anxiety. How both sides fight with arsenals of weapons in crowded cities will create an even more transformative test of competing narratives and willpower as long as the war lasts. | 哈马斯和以色列已经开始争夺国际的同情，这件事在世界各地引发了愤怒抗议，并让中东问题再次成为国际社会焦虑的根源。只要战争继续进行，双方如何在拥挤的城市中运用大量武器作战，将对双方针锋相对的叙事和决心构成更加根本性的考验。 |
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