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| As Israeli soldiers have massed to enter Gaza in force, the defense minister has promised them, “You see Gaza now from a distance; you will soon see it from inside.” |
| 随着以色列士兵集结起来准备大举进入加沙，该国国防部长向他们保证：“你们现在看加沙是从远处；你们很快将看到它里面的样子。” |
| Yet despite this vow from the minister, Yoav Gallant, it is not clear when Israel will mount a ground invasion. And if the government appears hesitant to enter Gaza — more than two weeks since the Hamas attack that killed more than 1,400 Israelis — there are good reasons to be. |
| 然而，尽管国防部长加兰特这样发誓，但以色列何时发动地面入侵尚不清楚。如果说该政府对进入加沙犹豫不决——哈马斯发动袭击造成1400多名以色列人死亡已经过了两周多——它是有充分理由的。 |
| What lies ahead is a kind of sustained urban warfare that the country’s military forces have not encountered for nearly a decade, and in pursuit of a political end that remains unclear aside from vanquishing Hamas, which controls Gaza, so that it can never again threaten Israeli citizens. |
| 如果入侵，以色列军队未来将面临的是持续的城市巷战，以军已将近十年没有遇到过这种局面了，而且入侵追求的政治目标仍不清楚——除了消灭控制加沙的哈马斯，使其永远无法再威胁以色列公民外。 |
| By itself, that is a tall order that will require the Israelis to establish control over Gaza for themselves, and one which will cost significant amounts of blood, treasure and international outrage over civilian deaths. |
| 这本身就是一项艰巨的任务，需要以色列人对加沙建立自己的控制，这将付出大量血的代价，耗费大量资金，以及引发国际社会对平民死亡的愤怒。 |
| And hovering over everything is the political conundrum of what happens to Gaza after the war ends. Once in, how does Israel get out? Once it has dismantled Hamas, if it can, to whom will it hand the keys? If Hamas no longer governs Gaza, who will? |
| 而且这一切之上还有复杂难解的政治问题：战争结束后加沙将发生什么？一旦进去，以色列将如何出来？一旦以色列废除了哈马斯（如果它做得到的话），它会把控制权交给谁？如果哈马斯不再统治加沙，由谁来统治？ |
| For the moment, Israeli officials say, those questions are not their immediate concern. But they will be unavoidable, even if Gaza becomes the responsibility of a new Israeli government. |
| 以色列官员表示，这些问题目前不是他们担心的事情。但这些问题将不可避免，即使加沙将来成为一个新以色列政府的责任。 |
| “In truth, there are no good options for an Israeli ground offensive in Gaza,” Tom Beckett, a retired lieutenant general of the British Army and executive director of the Middle East for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, wrote in a brief analysis. |
| “事实上，就以色列在加沙发动地面进攻而言，没有什么好的选择，”英国陆军退役中将、国际战略研究所中东执行主任汤姆·贝克特在一份简短的分析中写道。 |
| “No matter how successful the operation proves in defeating Hamas as a military organization, Hamas’s political imperative and the population’s support for the resistance will continue,” he wrote. “Israel either reoccupies Gaza to control it or, by withdrawing after an offensive, cedes ground to people for whom the resistance is existence.” |
| “无论入侵多么成功地击败了作为军事组织的哈马斯，哈马斯的政治重要性，以及民众对抵抗的支持都将继续下去，”他写道。“以色列或者为控制加沙重新将其占领，或者在入侵后撤军，将其留给那里的人民，对这些人来说抵抗就是存在。” |
| Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the Israeli Army spokesman, has said that the military “is focused on the objectives of the war as defined by the political echelon: the rout of Hamas and the elimination of its leaders after the slaughter they perpetrated on Shabbat.” |
| 以色列军方发言人、海军少将丹尼尔·哈加里表示，军队“关心的重点是政治阶层确定的战争目标：彻底打败哈马斯，消灭其领导人，他们犯下了在（犹太人的）安息日屠杀无辜的罪行”。 |
| “This organization will not rule Gaza military and politically, ” he added. |
| “该组织将不在军事上和政治上统治加沙，”他补充道。 |
| But somebody must. That is one weakness of the Israeli strategy, because Hamas represents a political and religious idea that cannot be dismantled, and it is an organization that has thrived on its reputation among Palestinians for embracing armed struggle and “martyrdom” against Israel. |
| 但必须有人统治加沙。这是以色列战略的一个弱点，因为哈马斯代表的政治和宗教理念是无法瓦解的，而且这个组织的成功在于其在巴勒斯坦人中的名声，那就是欣然接受与以色列的武装斗争，不惜为之“牺牲”。 |
| “Even if militarily defeated, Hamas cannot be neutralized,” said Lina Khatib, director of the Middle East Institute at SOAS University of London. “That the existence or legitimacy of Hamas is linked to its military success is false. It can be militarily defeated and remain politically relevant,” she said. “It can present any defense as heroic martyrdom for the sake of the liberation of the Palestinian people.” |
| “即使在军事上击败哈马斯，也无法使这个组织瓦解，”伦敦大学亚非学院中东研究所所长莉娜·哈提布说。“认为哈马斯的存在或合法性与其军事上的成功相关联是错误的。哈马斯能在军事上被击败，但仍然保持政治上的意义，”她说。“它能把任何防御呈现为为了巴勒斯坦人民的解放所做的英勇牺牲。” |
| For Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London, Israel’s challenge is “to align its military means with its political ends.” However competent a military, he said in an interview, a political goal that is too ambitious will result in frustration or failure. |
| 在伦敦国王学院战争研究荣誉退休教授劳伦斯·弗里德曼看来，以色列面临的挑战是“让它的军事手段与政治目标保持一致”。他在接受采访时表示，无论一支军队多么有能力，过于雄心勃勃的政治目标将导致挫折或失败。 |
| Examples abound, including American military victories in Iraq and Afghanistan in the name of broad and ambitious political goals, like democratization and gender equality, that have resulted in failure. Easy conquests ended in long, vicious counterinsurgency campaigns against local militias and radical Islamist fighters who knew the territory, who lived among the population and who did not obey the Geneva Convention or the rules of war. |
| 这种例子比比皆是，其中一个是美国在伊拉克和阿富汗取得的军事胜利，名义上是为了民主化和性别平等泛泛且雄心勃勃的政治目标，但最终都以失败告终。征服这两个国家很容易，但美国最终陷入与当地的民兵和伊斯兰武装极端分子残酷的反叛乱长期军事行动中，后者熟悉地形，生活在老百姓当中，而且不按照《日内瓦公约》或战争规则作战。 |
| And the governments established by the Americans required huge and continued amounts of Western cash and military support to survive. |
| 而且，美国人在当地建立起来的政府需要西方持续提供大量资金和军事支持才能存在下去。 |
| Mr. Freedman wrote about some of his concerns in The Financial Times. The Israelis, he said in a subsequent interview, risk a similar fate. “They have set themselves an ambition that is extremely hard to meet, because even if they deliver Hamas a heavy blow, they can’t stop its regeneration,” he said. Israel cannot occupy Gaza indefinitely and doesn’t want to, he said, adding, “And it can’t push the population into Egypt, which wants nothing to do with Gaza either.” |
| 弗里德曼在《金融时报》的一篇文章里写到了他的一些担忧。他后来接受采访时说，以色列人也有面临类似命运的风险。“他们为自己设定了一个极其难以实现的雄心，因为即使给予哈马斯沉重打击，也无法阻止其再生，”他说。以色列不能无限期地占领加沙，也不想这样做，他还补充说，“以色列也不能迫使加沙人口进入埃及，埃及不想与加沙有任何瓜葛。” |
| So without a clear political strategy, Mr. Freedman said, “it’s hard to see if this goes anywhere.” |
| 所以如果没有一个明确的政治策略的话，“很难看出这会有什么样的结果”，弗里德曼说道。 |
| In August 2014, after a serious Israeli-Hamas conflict, ideas were floated about what to do with Gaza, in a confidential options paper provided to The Times. It stated, presciently, that “a return to the status quo ante will produce a new war” and that the Palestinian Authority is “too weak and divided to govern.” |
| 时报从获得的一份保密文件中了解到，2014年8月，以色列与哈马斯发生了一次严重冲突后曾有过许多如何处理加沙的想法。文件有先见之明地指出，“恢复以前的原状将产生新的战争”，文件还说巴勒斯坦权力机构“太软弱，太分裂，无法管理国家”。 |
| The best solution, the paper suggested, was authorizing United Nations forces to control Gaza’s borders while Palestinian militias are disbanded and disarmed and the Israeli and Egyptian blockade of Gaza is gradually lifted. In 2014, the paper presumed that Hamas would still control Gaza but might agree to moderate its behavior in return. |
| 该文件建议，最好的解决方案是授权联合国部队控制加沙的边境，同时解散巴勒斯坦民兵组织并解除其武装，逐步解除以色列和埃及对加沙的封锁。这份2014年的文件假设哈马斯仍将控制加沙，但也许会同意缓和其行为，作为继续控制的回报。 |
| The paper also pointed out that the existing U.N. Truce Supervision Organization, founded in 1948, retains a legal mandate to patrol Gaza, even though it left in 1996 after the Oslo Accords. Under a reconfigured mandate, UNTSO could both patrol Gaza’s borders and help disarm militias, while another existing international committee would coordinate donor aid. |
| 该文件还指出，成立于1948年的现有联合国停战监督组织（简称UNTSO）保留其在加沙巡逻的法律授权，尽管该组织已在1996年的《奥斯陆协议》签署后离开。按照重新设定的授权，UNTSO可在加沙边境巡逻并帮助解除民兵武装，而另一个现有的国际委员会将协调捐助者的援助。 |
| Nine years later, the paper may serve as a starting point. If Hamas and similar groups are destroyed in Gaza, as Israel vows, perhaps UNTSO could help keep the peace inside Gaza too as a kind of supplementary police force while the status and credibility of the Palestinian Authority are somehow resurrected there. |
| 九年后，这份文件也许能作为一个起点。如果像以色列决意要做的那样，在加沙将哈马斯和类似的组织消灭的话，也许UNTSO能作为增补性的警力，帮助维持加沙内部的和平，同时让巴勒斯坦权力机构的地位和信誉得到某种程度的恢复。 |
| The 2014 discussion was real, said Robert Serry, a Dutch diplomat who served as the U.N. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process. “We had hoped that the Palestinian Authority could be brought back,” he said. |
| 曾担任联合国中东和平进程特别协调员的荷兰外交官罗伯特·塞里表示，2014年的讨论是真有其事。“我们曾希望巴勒斯坦权力机构重返和平进程，”他说。 |
| While that may be as unrealistic now as then, each time “we allowed the situation to go back to the status quo,” with a fragile cease-fire and “minimum arrangements to keep Gaza afloat,” Mr. Serry said. |
| 虽然这在眼下和当时一样不切实际，但只是达成不牢固的停火协议和“维持加沙运转的最低安排”，每次“我们都让局面回到了现状”，塞里说。 |
| Now, he said: “I hope Israel learns a lesson. If they keep ignoring the Palestinian question, it will from time to time explode, it’s just a question of when.” |
| 他说，现在，“我希望以色列吸取教训。如果他们继续无视巴勒斯坦问题，它将时不时爆发，只是什么时候爆发的问题。” |
| Israel tried to rid itself of responsibility for Gaza once before and failed. Its political answer to who would run Gaza proved faulty, and it essentially tossed the keys to Gaza into the street. |
| 以色列此前曾试图摆脱对加沙的责任，但失败了。事实证明，以色列对谁来管理加沙的政治答案是错的，它实际上把加沙的管理权扔在了街上。 |
| In 2005, when Israel withdrew all its troops and citizens from Gaza, it handed over power there to the Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas, dominated by Fatah. But Fatah lost a legislative election the next year to Hamas, and in 2007, when Fatah broke an agreement with Hamas, Hamas seized power in Gaza in a short and brutal civil war, dividing the Palestinians not only territorially, but politically. |
| 2005年，以色列从加沙撤出所有军队和公民后，将那里的权力移交给了马哈茂德·阿巴斯领导的巴勒斯坦权力机构，该机构由法塔赫主导。但法塔赫在第二年的立法会选举中输给了哈马斯。2007年，法塔赫违反了与哈马斯签署的一份协议后，哈马斯在一场短暂但残酷的内战中在加沙夺取了政权，让巴勒斯坦人不仅在领土上分裂，而且在政治上分裂。 |
| In the current conflict, Israel will need to control what’s left of Gaza and garrison Israeli forces there until a political solution of some kind allows them to leave, which will stretch the army, especially if Hezbollah opens a second front from southern Lebanon or if there is a surge of violence in the occupied West Bank between Israeli settlers and Palestinians. |
| 在当前的冲突中，以色列将需要控制加沙留下来的部分，在那里驻扎以色列军队，直到某种政治解决方案允许他们离开，这将分散以色列军队的力量，尤其是如果真主党从黎巴嫩南部开辟第二条战线的话，或者如果在被占领的约旦河西岸以色列定居者与巴勒斯坦人之间的暴力事件激增的话。 |
| Of course, if Gaza’s urban centers are smashed and the ground operations lead to the displacement of large parts of the population, it will be easier for the Israeli military to control Gaza without fully occupying it, said Ms. Khatib of SOAS. “It’s a tactic of war used by other regimes in the Mideast,” she said, citing President Bashar al-Assad of Syria and his scorched-earth tactics against his opponents there. |
| 当然，如果加沙的城市中心被摧毁，地面行动导致大部分人口流离失所的话，以色列军队将更容易控制加沙，而不需要完全占领它，伦敦亚非学院的哈提布说。“这是中东其他政权使用的战争策略，”她说，并提到了叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德，他针对自己的对手采用了焦土政策。 |
| Mr. Beckett agreed. “Brutality can reduce the numbers required for a counterinsurgency,” he wrote, citing the crushing of resistance in 1982 at Hama by the former Syrian president, Hafez al-Assad. His son, “Bashar Assad, supported by Russia, has applied indiscriminate brutality throughout the Syrian civil war,” he added. |
| 贝克特同意这个观点。“残暴可以减少反叛乱所需的人员数量，”他写道，并给了1982年叙利亚前总统哈菲兹·阿萨德在哈马镇压抵抗运动的例子。他的儿子“巴沙尔·阿萨德在俄罗斯的支持下，在整个叙利亚内战中使用了不加选择的暴行”，贝克特补充说。 |
| While the world is appalled by the Hamas killings and will likely give Israel more time than in the past to defeat Hamas, there are already calls for Israel to obey the Geneva Convention and the rules of war, including from President Biden and Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken. |
| 尽管世界对哈马斯残杀平民感到惊骇，并有可能会给以色列比过去更多的时间击败哈马斯，但已经有要求以色列遵守《日内瓦公约》和战争规则的呼声，包括美国总统拜登和国务卿布林肯。 |
| The inevitable deaths and wounding of civilians will, as it has always done, eventually bring significant pressure on Israel to negotiate a cease-fire, pressure, especially from Washington, that could become too much to bear before Israel has accomplished its stated military goal. |
| 与以往一样，不可避免的平民伤亡最终将给以色列带来进行停火谈判的巨大压力，尤其是来自华盛顿的压力，这种压力在以色列实现其既定军事目标前可能会变得难以承受。 |
| Israel is already trying to prepare its supporters around the world, and especially in the United States, to resist that kind of pressure to stop its operation before Hamas is dismantled. |
| 以色列已在努力让世界各地的支持者们，尤其是美国的支持者们做好准备，抵制那种在哈马斯被废除前停止以军行动的压力。 |
| Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, a spokesman for the Israeli military, recently urged the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a pro-Israel lobbying group based in Washington, to stick with Israel regardless of criticism. |
| 以色列军方发言人乔纳森·康里克斯中校最近敦促总部位于华盛顿的亲以色列游说团体美国以色列公共事务委员会，不理会批评，继续支持以色列。 |
| “Even when the going gets ugly and the scenes out of Gaza will be hard to stomach — not as hard as the things that were coming out of Kibbutz Be’eri and Kfar Aza, but they will be hard to stomach — then we will need the support of anybody who loves freedom and wants to stand up for what’s right,” Colonel Conricus said in a webcast, referring to two of the Israeli villages where Hamas killed civilians. |
| “即使当局势变得很糟糕，来自加沙的情景让人难以接受时（虽然不像贝埃里基布兹和卡法阿扎的情景那么难以接受，但也不会让人好过），我们仍将需要任何热爱自由、想坚守正义事业的人的支持，”康里克斯在网络直播中说，他指的是哈马斯杀害平民的两个以色列村庄。 |
| In the past, he said, after “a small window of international legitimacy and support,” public opinion shifts “and Israel is forced by powerful countries around the world to limit its movement. We have seen that and that is unfortunately what we’ve faced in the past. This time,” he said, “must be different.” |
| 他说，以前，在“国际合法性和国际支持的一个小窗口”过后，公众舆论发生变化，“世界各地的强国迫使以色列限制自己的行动。我们已经看到过这种情况，那是我们过去不幸遇到的情况。这次必须有所不同，”他说。 |
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