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中美芯片冲突的关键机器:光刻机
The Multimillion-Dollar Machines at the Center of the U.S.-China Rivalry

来源:纽约时报    2023-10-23 09:22



        They are smooth white boxes, roughly the size of large cargo vans, and they are now at the heart of the U.S.-Chinese technology conflict.
        这些设备从外表看是光滑的白色箱子,体积与大型货车相当,如今,它们是美中技术冲突的要害所在。
        As the United States tries to slow China’s progress toward technological advances that could help its military, the complex lithography machines that print intricate circuitry on computer chips have become a key choke point.
        随着美国试图减缓中国在可能有助于提高其军事能力的技术方面取得进步,将错综复杂的电路印到计算机芯片上的复杂光刻机已成了一个关键的钳制点。
        The machines are central to China’s efforts to develop its own chip-making industry, but China does not yet have the technology to make them, at least in their most advanced forms. This week, U.S. officials took steps to curb China’s progress toward that goal by barring companies globally from sending additional types of chip-making machines to China, unless they obtain a special license from the U.S. government.
        虽然这些光刻机是中国发展本国芯片制造业的重要组成部分,但中国尚不具备制造它们的技术,至少不具备制造最先进光刻机的技术。美国官员上周采取了限制中国实现半导体制造目标的步骤,禁止全球的公司向中国出口更多类型的芯片制造机器,除非得到美国政府的特别许可。
        The move could be a significant blow to China’s chip-manufacturing ambitions. It is also an unusual flexing of American regulatory power. American officials took the position that they could regulate equipment manufactured outside the United States if it contains even just one American-made part.
        此举可能给中国的芯片制造雄心带来重大打击。这也是美国对其监管权力不同寻常地使用。美国官员认为,只要在美国境外制造的设备上有一个美国制造的零件的话,他们就能对其进行监管。
        That decision gives U.S. officials new sway over companies in the Netherlands and Japan, where some of the most advanced chip machinery is made. In particular, U.S. rules will now stop shipments of some machines that use deep ultraviolet, or DUV, technology made mainly by the Dutch firm ASML, which dominates the lithography market.
        这项决定让美国官员对荷兰和日本的公司有了新的控制力,一些最先进的芯片制造设备正是来自这两个国家。具体来说,美国的规定将导致一些使用深紫外技术的设备无法运往中国,该技术主要由光刻机市场占主导地位的荷兰公司ASML制造。
        Vera Kranenburg, a China researcher at the Clingendael Institute, a Dutch think tank, said that while ASML had made clear that it would follow the regulations, the company was already chafing under earlier regulations that barred it from exporting a more sophisticated lithography machine to China.
        荷兰智库克林亨达尔国际关系研究所的中国问题研究员何森璱(Vera Kranenburg)表示,虽然ASML已明确表示将遵守这些规定,但美国此前禁止其向中国出口更先进光刻机的规定已经令它感到恼火。
        “They’re of course not happy about the export controls,” she said.
        “他们当然对这些出口管制不满,”她说。
        After being thrust into geopolitics yet again, ASML has been careful in its response, saying in a statement this week that it complies with all laws and regulations in the countries where it operates. Peter Wennink, the chief executive, said the company would not be able to ship certain tools to “just a handful” of Chinese chip factories. But “it is still sales that we had in 2023 that we’ll not have in 2024,” he added.
        再次被卷入地缘政治之后,ASML在回应的时候始终保持着谨慎,公司上周在一份声明中表示,遵守业务所在国的所有法律法规。首席执行官彼得·温宁克称,公司将无法再把某些工具运往“少数”中国芯片工厂。但他补充说,“我们2023年卖出去的设备仍将发货,只是2024年我们不能再卖了。”
        In a statement, the Dutch foreign trade minister, Liesje Schreinemacher, said that the Netherlands shared U.S. security concerns and continuously exchanges information with the United States, but that “ultimately, every country decides for itself what export restrictions to impose.” She pointed to more permissive restrictions announced by the Dutch government in June.
        荷兰外贸与发展合作大臣莉谢·施赖纳马赫在一份声明中表示,荷兰与美国有同样的安全担忧,并在不断与美国交换信息,但“最终,每个国家将自行决定采取哪些出口限制措施”。她指出,荷兰政府已在今年6月宣布了更宽松的措施。
        A spokesman for the U.S. Department of Commerce declined to comment.
        美国商务部发言人拒绝就本文置评。
        ASML’s technology has enabled leaps in global computing power. The increasing precision of its machines — which have tens of thousands of components and cost as much as hundreds of millions of dollars each — has allowed circuitry on chips to get progressively smaller, letting companies pack more computing power into a tiny piece of silicon.
        ASML的技术让全球计算能力实现了飞跃。ASML光刻机有数万个零部件,每台售价高达数亿美元,光刻精度的不断提高使得芯片上的电路越来越小,从而让芯片制造商能将更多的计算能力集成到一个微小的硅片上去。
        The technology has also given the United States and its allies an important source of leverage over China, as governments compete to turn technological gains into military advantages. Although Beijing is pouring money into the semiconductor industry, Chinese chip-making equipment remains many years behind the prowess of ASML and other key machine suppliers, including Applied Materials and Lam Research in the United States and Tokyo Electron and Canon in Japan.
        随着各国政府竞相把技术成果转化为军事优势,光刻技术也成了美国及其盟友对中国施加影响的重要杠杆。尽管中国政府正在向半导体行业注入大量资金,但它的芯片制造设备在技术上仍比ASML和其他主要设备供应商落后很多年,这些供应商包括美国的应用材料公司和泛林集团,以及日本的东京电子和佳能。
        But U.S. efforts to weaponize this technological advantage against China appear to be straining alliances. In Europe, government officials increasingly agree with the United States that China poses a geopolitical and economic threat. But they are still wary of undercutting their own companies by blocking them from China, one of the world’s largest and most vibrant tech markets.
        但美国将这种技术优势武器化以对抗中国的努力看来正在让盟友关系变得紧张。欧洲国家的政府官员越来越同意美国认为中国构成地缘政治和经济威胁的观点。但他们仍担心,不让本国的公司进入中国这个全球最大、最有活力的技术市场之一,会损害这些企业的利益。
        Dutch technology, in particular, has been the focus of a multiyear pressure campaign from the United States. In 2019, the Trump administration persuaded the Dutch to block shipments to China of ASML’s most state-of-the-art machine, which uses extreme ultraviolet technology.
        尤其是处于美国多年施压行动焦点的荷兰技术。特朗普政府在2019年说服荷兰,不允许ASML将使用极紫外技术的最先进光刻机卖给中国。
        After months of diplomatic pressure from the Biden administration, the governments of the Netherlands and Japan agreed in January that they would also independently curb sales of some deep ultraviolet lithography machines and other types of advanced chip-making equipment to China.
        在拜登政府施加了几个月的外交压力后,荷兰和日本的政府在今年1月同意,两国也将单独限制向中国销售某些深紫外光刻机和其他类型的先进芯片制造设备。
        The United States and its allies have viewed sales of the deep ultraviolet lithography machines as less of a national security risk. The chips they produce are considerably less advanced than those built with the most cutting-edge machines, which now power the latest smartphones, supercomputers and A.I. models.
        美国及其盟友曾认为,深紫外光刻机的销售给国家安全带来的风险较小。这种光刻机制造的芯片与最尖端光刻机制造的用于最新智能手机、超级计算机和驱动人工智能的芯片有相当大的差距。
        But that position was tested this summer when a Chinese firm used ASML’s deep ultraviolet lithography technology along with other advanced machines to blow past a technological barrier that U.S. officials had hoped to keep China from reaching.
        但这个观念在今年夏天受到了考验。一家中国公司用ASML的深紫外光刻技术和其他先进设备突破了一个技术障碍,美国官员曾认为中国做不到这点。
        In August, the Chinese telecom giant Huawei unexpectedly released a new smartphone containing a Chinese-made chip with transistor dimensions rated at seven nanometers, just a couple of technology generations behind the latest chips made in Taiwan. Analysts have concluded that China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation made the chip with the use of the Dutch deep ultraviolet lithography machinery.
        今年8月,中国电信设备巨头华为出人意料地发布了一款新智能手机,手机使用了中国制造的7纳米芯片,在技术上只比台湾制造的最先进芯片落后两代。分析人士得出的结论是,中国的中芯国际使用荷兰的深紫外光刻机造出了7纳米芯片。
        Gregory C. Allen, a technology expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, said the new export control rules had been in the works long before the Huawei announcement. But, he said, the development “helped leaders throughout the U.S. government understand that there was no more time to waste and that updated controls were urgently needed.”
        华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心的技术专家格雷戈里·艾伦说,新的出口管制规定早在华为推出新手机前就已在酝酿之中。但他说,这一进展“帮助美国政府各个部门的领导人认识到,没有更多可浪费的时间了,迫切需要更新出口管制措施”。
        Mr. Allen said the controls would not necessarily break China’s most advanced chip-makers immediately, since they had already stockpiled a lot of advanced machinery. But it would “dramatically restrict” their ability to manufacture the most advanced kinds of semiconductors, like seven-nanometer chips, he said.
        艾伦说,出口管制措施不一定会马上摧毁中国最先进的芯片制造商,因为它们已经储备了大量的先进设备。但他说,新措施将“极大地限制”他们制造最先进半导体的能力,比如7纳米芯片。
        For now, ASML is still doing brisk business with China. In its earnings report this week, ASML said sales to China had surged in the third quarter to account for 46 percent of the company’s global total, far above historical levels.
        从目前来看,ASML与中国的业务仍然红火。它在本周的财报中表示,第三季度在华销售额猛增,占到了公司全球总销售额的46%,远高于历史水平。
        Analysts at TD Cowen estimated that ASML’s China sales would reach 5.5 billion euros (about $5.8 billion) this year, more than double the total last year. Next year, the new export controls could cut 10 to 15 percent off the company’s China revenues, they projected.
        据TD Cowen的分析师估计,今年ASML在华销售额将达到55亿欧元(约合58亿美元),是去年总销售额的两倍多。他们预计,新的出口管制出台后,公司明年来自中国市场的收入可能会减少10%到15%。
        Roger Dassen, ASML’s chief financial officer, said in the earnings call that most of the orders that ASML was completing this year had been placed in 2022 or even the year before, and were largely for machines that would make slightly older types of chips.
        ASML首席财务官罗杰·达森在财报电话会议上说,公司今年完成的大部分订单都是2022年甚至前一年下的,而且主要是用于生产稍微更老类型芯片的机器。
        All the shipments were “very much within the limits of export regulation,” Mr. Dassen said.
        所有发货“完全没有超出出口监管的范围”,达森说。
        For the machines that face new U.S. restrictions, the Dutch company will now be barred from supplying replacement parts and helping to service those systems. That will mean Chinese companies are likely to have manufacturing problems at some point.
        对受美国新出口管制限制的机器来说,ASML今后将被禁止提供替换零件或帮助维修系统。这将意味着,中国企业可能会在某个时候出现制造问题。
        These hugely expensive machines rely on regular software and maintenance support to continue churning out chips, said Joanne Chiao, a semiconductor analyst at TrendForce, a market research firm.
        这些极其昂贵的机器继续生产芯片需要定期更新软件和维修支持,市场研究公司集邦咨询的半导体产业分析师乔安(Joanne Chiao)说。
        ASML is not the only equipment supplier caught up in the latest restrictions. Other kinds of advanced machines that are essential to produce the most advanced chips, like those from the U.S. companies Applied Materials and Lam Research, are detailed in the latest restrictions.
        ASML并不是受最新限制影响的唯一设备供应商。生产最先进芯片所必需的其他类型的先进设备,比如美国的应用材料公司和泛林集团的设备,也详细地列在最新限制中。
        Lam, in a conference call on Wednesday, said revenue from China jumped 48 percent in its first fiscal quarter as companies stocked up on machines to make both mature chips and advanced products. It had already estimated that restrictions on sales to China would hold down revenue this year by $2 billion; executives added that the expanded rules issued this week wouldn’t materially change that estimate.
        泛林在周三的电话会议上表示,由于中国企业储备用于制造成熟芯片和先进产品的设备,泛林今年第一财季来自中国的营收增长了48%。公司此前曾估计,对华销售限制将导致公司今年的收入减少20亿美元;高管们补充说,上周发布的新规定不会让这个估计发生实质性的改变。
        An Applied Materials spokesman said the company was still reviewing the new rules to gauge their potential impact.
        应用材料公司的发言人表示,公司仍在仔细研究新规定,以评估可能的影响。
        
        
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