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拜登的生涯时刻:证明美国是决定世界历史走向的唯一国家
Biden’s Moment: A President Convinced of America’s Role in the World

来源:纽约时报    2023-10-20 04:03



        President Biden could very well go down in history as the last American president born during World War II and shaped by a view of American power nurtured in the Cold War. No other leader on the world stage today can boast that they sat in the Israeli prime minister’s office 50 years ago with Golda Meir, or discussed dismantling Soviet nuclear weapons with Mikhail Gorbachev.        拜登总统很可能将作为最后一位在“二战”时出生并被“冷战”时的美国权力观塑造的美国总统而留名史册。在当今世界舞台上,没有哪位领导人像他一样,能夸口称自己曾在50年前与果尔达·梅厄在以色列总理办公室相谈甚欢,还跟米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫讨论过解除苏联核武器的问题。
        So perhaps it is no surprise that the twin wars in which Mr. Biden has chosen to insert the United States — defending Ukraine as it tries to repel a nuclear-armed invader, and now promising aid to Israel in wiping out the leadership of Hamas — have brought out a passion, emotion and a clarity that is usually missing from the president’s ordinarily flat and meandering speeches.        因此,不管是支持乌克兰击退拥有核武器的入侵者,还是如今又承诺帮助以色列消灭哈马斯首脑,拜登让美国同时干涉这两场战争的决定展现出与这位总统通常平淡散漫的讲话完全不同的热忱、情感和清晰,也就不足为奇了。
        It rang out on Thursday evening, as Mr. Biden combined the two struggles in his Oval Office address, declaring that while President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Hamas “represent different threats,” they “both want to completely annihilate a neighboring democracy.”        周四晚上,拜登在椭圆形办公室的讲话中把这两场斗争放到了一起,宣称虽然俄罗斯总统普京和哈马斯“所代表的威胁不同”,但他们的“目的都在于彻底摧毁相邻的民主国家”。
        Throughout the speech, Mr. Biden toggled between the two crises, making the case that if America does not stand up in both conflicts the result will be “more chaos and death and more destruction.” That argument reflects his certainty that this is the moment he has trained for his entire political career, a point he often makes when challenged about his age.        拜登在演讲中反复提及这两场危机,他认为美国若不能挺身而出,必将导致“更多混乱、死亡和破坏”。此论调说明他确信这就是他整个政治生涯都为之磨练的时刻——当有人质疑他的年纪时,他总会强调这一点。
        His sense of mission explains why, at age 80, he has in the past eight months visited two countries in the midst of active wars. But at the same time he has married his public embraces with private cautions to American allies, while carefully keeping American troops out of both conflicts — so far. He seems determined to prove that for all the critiques that the United States is a divided, declining power, it remains the only nation that can mold events in a world of unpredictable mayhem.        这种使命感解释了80岁高龄的他为何要在过去八个月中造访两个战火纷飞的国家。但另一方面,他又在公开声援的同时对美国盟友谨慎表态,并小心翼翼地防止美国军队介入这两场冲突——至少目前如此。哪怕无数批评都在说美国是一个分裂的、正在衰落的大国,但他似乎誓要证明美国仍是唯一一个能在不可预测的混乱世界中决定历史走向的国家。
        “When presidents get into their sweet spot you usually see and hear it, and in the past few weeks you have seen and heard it,” said Michael Beschloss, the historian and author of “Presidents of War,” which traces the rocky history of Mr. Biden’s predecessors as they plunged into global conflicts, avoided a few, and sometimes came to regret their choices.        “进入最佳状态的总统往往都锋芒毕露,过去几周大家都看到也听到了,”历史学家迈克尔·贝施洛斯说,他的著作《战时总统》(Presidents of War)追溯了拜登前任们经历过的动荡历史,他们有时被卷入全球冲突,有时得以回避,有时也会对自己的决策懊悔不迭。
        Whether Mr. Biden can bring the American population along, however, is a more unsettled question than at any moment in his presidency, and was the backdrop of his Oval Office address.        然而,拜登能否得到美国民众的支持却成了他担任总统以来最大的不确定,而这正是他在椭圆形办公室讲话的大背景。
        Polls show that a growing number of Americans are uneasy with the role of defender of the existing order, and the existing rules, that Mr. Biden describes as the essence of America. In the generation in which he grew up, his Thursday declaration that “American leadership is what holds the world together” would have been uncontroversial. Today it is a central point of debate, along with his insistence that “American alliances are what keep us, America, safe.”        民调显示越来越多的美国人对既有秩序与规则的捍卫者这一角色存有忧虑,也就是被拜登成为美国之根本的东西。他在周四的讲话中宣称的“美国的领导让世界免于分崩离析”,对他那一代人来说不算什么争议性言论。如今这是争论的一个核心,此外还有他坚称的“美国的结盟确保了我们的安全”。
        For Mr. Biden, the democratic order is at risk if the rest of the world balks at toppling Hamas and neutralizing Russia. But he is finding that a far harder case to make now than in February 2022, when Mr. Putin tried a lightning-strike attack to overthrow an imperfect democracy in Ukraine and restore the Russian empire of Peter the Great.        在拜登看来,如果美国以外的世界对推翻哈马斯和压制俄罗斯这样的事感到踌躇,那么民主秩序就面临风险。然而他发现,现在要说服人民相信这一点,比2022年2月的时候更难了,当时普京试图以快速打击的方式推翻乌克兰并不完美的民主体制,恢复彼得大帝时代的俄罗斯帝国。
        The initial overwhelming support for Ukraine — one of the few issues that seemed to unify Democrats and Republicans — is clearly shattering, with a growing part of the Republican Party arguing that this is not America’s fight. The slog across the Donbas, and the prospect of a long conflict in which Mr. Putin is waiting to see if America will elect former President Donald J. Trump or someone of similar antipathy to the war effort, only complicates the picture.        乌克兰最初得到了全面的支持——那是少数让民主党和共和党团结起来的问题之一——如今这种团结显然在动摇,越来越多的共和党人开始说,这不是美国的斗争。在顿巴斯各地的苦战,冲突演变为长期缠斗的可能性——普京在观望,看看美国会不会选举前总统特朗普或其他什么对战争行动有类似恶感的人——都让局势变得复杂。
        Now Mr. Biden’s whole-body embrace of Israel, so vivid in his seven-hour visit to Tel Aviv on Wednesday, may prove an equal challenge. After the horrific scenes of burned babies and kibbutz residents shot, raped or taken hostage by Hamas, he will almost certainly get the billions he is expected to ask for tonight to defend Israel. He has already invoked the history of Harry Truman’s momentous decision in 1948 to recognize Israel moments after it declared its independence, arguing that 75 years later “we will make sure the Jewish and democratic state of Israel can defend itself today, tomorrow — as we always have.”        拜登对以色列的全心支持,在周三用时七小时的特拉维夫之行中得到充分体现,如今这种支持可能同样是一个挑战。经过被焚烧的婴儿和基布兹居民被哈马斯射杀、强奸、劫持这样的恐怖场面后,他在今晚提出向以色列提供数十亿美元用于防务的要求,几乎肯定会得到批准。他还提起了1948年哈里·杜鲁门做出的那个重大决定,在以色列宣布独立后立刻予以承认,他认为,75年后,“我们将确保犹太人和以色列民主政权在今天、在明天能够保卫自己——我们一直是这么做的。”
        But already his administration is hearing strident criticism — some within his own administration — that he has tilted too far, and done too little to restrain Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from cutting off food, water and electricity in Gaza and from preparing for a ground invasion that could kill thousands more Palestinians. The critique of American policy is most audible in some corners of the State Department, where there are already widespread reports of dissent that the U.S. support for Israel comes at the expense of protecting Palestinian civilians.        然而他的政府已经能听到尖锐的批评——包括他自己的政府内部——认为他过分向以色列倾斜,没有做些什么来阻止本雅明·内塔尼亚胡总理对加沙断粮、断水、断电,并准备一场可能杀死成千上万巴勒斯坦人的地面入侵。在国务院的某些角落传出了对美国政策最明确的批评,有人质疑美国对以色列的支持是罔顾巴勒斯坦平民的安危,这些消息已经广泛传播开来。
        “I recognize the Israeli government’s right to respond and to defend themselves,” Josh Paul, a longtime diplomat in the State Department’s Bureau of Political and Military Affairs, which oversees much of the American aid to Israel, told The Washington Post as he announced his resignation late Wednesday. “I guess I question how many Palestinian children have to die in that process.”        “我承认以色列政府有权作出回应并捍卫自己,”国务院政治和军事事务局的约什·保罗上周三宣布辞职时对《华盛顿邮报》说,这位资深外交官负责了许多美国援助以色列的工作。“我想我的疑问是,在这个过程中到底要死多少巴勒斯坦儿童。”
        In private conversations and some social media chats, there is a growing wave of internal critique that Mr. Biden and his aides mistook a quieter moment in the Middle East before the Hamas invasion as an indication the status quo in Gaza and the West Bank was sustainable. And in private, even some aides around Mr. Biden say they fear the narrative around Israel and Hamas already is shifting, with memories of the horror of that bloody Saturday morning 12 days ago giving way to imagery of the destruction and desperation in Gaza.        在私下的交谈和一些社媒聊天中,内部人士对拜登及其助手表达了越来越多的批评,认为他们错误地根据哈马斯入侵前中东较为平静的一段时间做出判断,加沙和约旦河西岸的现状是可持续的。甚至一些拜登身边的助手私下里都说,他们担心围绕以色列和哈马斯的叙事风向在变,12天前那个血腥的周六上午留下的骇人记忆,将让位于加沙的毁灭和绝望。
        Mr. Biden’s response is that experience has taught him that the best way to moderate Mr. Netanyahu’s behavior is to wrap him in support — and whisper a warning into his ear. He has made sure that members of his administration and allies are constantly in the country, and in Mr. Netanyahu’s war room, to keep the Israelis from rushing into a broad invasion.        拜登的回应是,过去的经验告诉他,约束内塔尼亚胡行为的最佳方式是给他全部的支持——然后在耳边小声地警告他。他保证他的政府和盟友会时刻有人在以色列,在内塔尼亚胡的战情室里,防止以色列人草率发起全面入侵。
        Mr. Biden’s strategy has another element to it: While he is showing his support for both Ukraine and Israel, he has ruled out putting Americans directly into the fight. That is drawn from the experiences of Afghanistan and Iraq, where support for the American effort was drained by the scenes of casualties that seemed increasingly pointless, and by the failure of American ambitions — a reality Mr. Biden alluded to in Tel Aviv when he spoke of the mistakes that grew from a post-Sept. 11 focus on vengeance.        拜登的战略还有一个元素:他展现了对乌克兰和以色列的支持,但又排除了让美国人直接加入战斗的可能性。这是在吸取阿富汗和伊拉克的教训,在这两个地方,随着伤亡的场面越来越让人觉得没有意义,对美国行动的支持也枯竭了——拜登在特拉维夫谈起9·11之后一心复仇的美国所犯下的错误时,就提到了这一现实。
        On Thursday night, Mr. Biden made his most explicit case yet for why Americans, and the world, should rally behind four major goals. The first is to keep the aid flowing into Ukraine, so that Mr. Putin cannot wait out the West and strangle the country. The second goal for Mr. Biden is killing off Hamas. The third is to keep both wars from spreading.        对于为什么美国乃至世界应该在四个主要目标上团结起来,拜登在周四晚做出了最清晰的论述。第一个目标是继续向乌克兰提供援助,让普京不能拖到西方放弃,扼住乌克兰的喉咙。拜登的第二个目标是消灭哈马斯。第三是避免两场战争的扩散。
        And the final objective is to accomplish all this without bringing more death and misery to noncombatants caught in a world once again on fire.        最后一个目标,是在实现前三个目标的同时,让再度陷入战火的非战斗人员得以避免进一步的死亡和苦难。
                
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