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| Russia has started the largest war in Europe since World War II. | 俄罗斯发动了“二战”以来欧洲最大规模的战争。 |
| China has become more bellicose toward Taiwan. | 中国加剧对台湾的武力威胁。 |
| India has embraced a virulent nationalism. | 印度在奉行一种具有毒性的民族主义。 |
| Israel has formed the most extreme government in its history. | 以色列组建了历史上最极端的政府。 |
| And on Saturday morning, Hamas brazenly attacked Israel, launching thousands of missiles and publicly kidnapping and killing civilians. | 上周六上午，哈马斯悍然攻击以色列，发射了数以千计的导弹，并公开绑架和杀害平民。 |
| All these developments are signs that the world may have fallen into a new period of disarray. Countries — and political groups like Hamas — are willing to take big risks, rather than fearing that the consequences would be too dire. | 所有这些事态发展都表明世界可能已经陷入了一个新的混乱时期。各国——以及像哈马斯这样的政治团体——愿意冒很大的风险，而不是去担心造成太过严重的后果。 |
| The simplest explanation is that the world is in the midst of a transition to a new order that experts describe with the word multipolar. The United States is no longer the dominant power it once was, and no replacement has emerged. As a result, political leaders in many places feel emboldened to assert their own interests, believing the benefits of aggressive action may outweigh the costs. These leaders believe that they have more sway over their own region than the U.S. does. | 最简单的解释是，世界正处于向新秩序过渡的过程中，专家们用“多极”一词来形容这种新秩序。美国不再是主导力量，也没有替代者出现。因此，许多地方的政治领导人认为，采取激进行动的好处可能大于成本，因此敢于维护自身利益。这些领导人认为，他们在自己所在的地区拥有比美国更大的影响力。 |
| “A fully multipolar world has emerged, and people are belatedly realizing that multipolarity involves quite a bit of chaos,” Noah Smith wrote in his Substack newsletter on Saturday. | “一个完全多极的世界已经出现，人们迟迟才意识到，多极化包含着相当多的混乱，”诺亚·史密斯上周六在他的Substack时事通讯中写道。 |
| Zheng Yongnian, a Chinese political scientist with ties to the country’s leaders, has similarly described the “old order” as disintegrating. “Countries are brimming with ambition, like tigers eyeing their prey, keen to find every opportunity among the ruins of the old order,” Zheng wrote last year. | 与中国领导人有联系的中国政治学家郑永年也同样认为“旧的秩序”正在瓦解。“各国野心勃勃，虎视眈眈，希冀在旧秩序的废墟上寻找一切机会，”郑永年去年写道。 |
| A weaker U.S. … | 一个疲软的美国…… |
| Why has American power receded? Some of the change is unavoidable. Dominant countries don’t remain dominant forever. But the U.S. has also made strategic mistakes that are accelerating the arrival of a multipolar world. | 为什么美国的实力在衰退？有些变化是不可避免的。主导国家不会永远保持主导地位。但美国也犯了战略错误，加速了多极世界的到来。 |
| Among those mistakes: Presidents of both parties naïvely believed that a richer China would inevitably be a friendlier China — and failed to recognize that the U.S. was building up its own rival through lenient trade policies, as the political scientist John Mearsheimer has argued. In Afghanistan and Iraq, the U.S. spent much of the early 21st century fighting costly wars. The Iraq war was especially damaging because it was an unprovoked war that George W. Bush chose to start. And the humiliating retreat from Afghanistan, overseen by President Biden, made the U.S. look weaker still. | 正如政治学家约翰·米尔斯海默指出的那样，这些错误包括：两党总统都天真地认为一个更富裕的中国必然会成为一个更友好的中国，而没有认识到美国正在通过宽松的贸易政策建立自己的竞争对手。在阿富汗和伊拉克，美国在21世纪初的大部分时间里都在打代价高昂的战争。伊拉克战争的破坏性尤为严重，因为那是乔治·W·布什无端挑起的战争。在拜登总统的监督下，美国从阿富汗耻辱地撤退，使美国看起来实力减退。 |
| Perhaps the biggest damage to American prestige has come from Donald Trump, who has rejected the very idea that the U.S. should lead the world. Trump withdrew from international agreements and disdained successful alliances like NATO. He has signaled that, if he reclaims the presidency in 2025, he may abandon Ukraine. | 也许对美国声望造成最大损害的是特朗普，他拒绝接受美国应该领导世界的观点。特朗普退出了国际协议，对北约等成功的联盟不屑一顾。他曾表示，如果他在2025年重新当选总统，他可能会放弃乌克兰。 |
| In the case of Israel, Trump encouraged Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, to show little concern for Palestinian interests and instead seek a maximal Israeli victory. Netanyahu, of course, did not start this new war. Hamas did, potentially with support from Iran, the group’s longtime backer, and Hamas committed shocking human rights violations this past weekend, captured on video. | 在以色列问题上，特朗普鼓励以色列总理内塔尼亚胡对巴勒斯坦人的利益毫不关心，寻求让以色列取得最大的胜利。当然，发动这场新战争的不是内塔尼亚胡，而是哈马斯，它可能得到了该组织长期资助者伊朗的支持。哈马斯在上周末犯下了令人震惊的侵犯人权行为，且有视频记录在案。 |
| But Netanyahu’s extremism has contributed to the turmoil between Israel and Palestinian groups like Hamas. An editorial in Haaretz, an Israeli newspaper, yesterday argued, “The prime minister, who has prided himself on his vast political experience and irreplaceable wisdom in security matters, completely failed to identify the dangers he was consciously leading Israel into when establishing a government of annexation and dispossession.” Netanyahu, Haaretz added, adopted “a foreign policy that openly ignored the existence and rights of Palestinians.” | 但内塔尼亚胡的极端主义加剧了以色列和哈马斯等巴勒斯坦组织之间的动荡。以色列报纸《国土报》(Haaretz)昨天在社论中指出：“这位以丰富的政治经验和安全事务方面无可替代的智慧而自豪的总理完全没有认识到，他在建立一个吞并和剥夺的政府之时，故意把以色列带入了危险之中。”《国土报》还说，内塔尼亚胡采取了“公然无视巴勒斯坦人的存在和权利的外交政策”。 |
| … but still powerful | ……但依然强大 |
| Even with the rise of multipolarity, the U.S. remains the world’s most powerful country, with a unique ability to forge alliances and peace. In the Middle East, the Trump administration persuaded Israel and four other countries — the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco — to sign unprecedented diplomatic agreements, known as the Abraham Accords. In recent months, the Biden administration has made progress toward an even more ambitious deal, between Israel and Saudi Arabia. | 即使在多极化崛起的情况下，美国仍然是世界上最强大的国家，拥有建立联盟与和平的独特能力。在中东，特朗普政府说服以色列和其他四个国家——阿拉伯联合酋长国、巴林、苏丹和摩洛哥——签署了前所未有的外交协议，即《亚伯拉罕协议》(Abraham Accords)。最近几个月，拜登政府在以色列和沙特阿拉伯之间达成一项更具雄心的协议方面取得了进展。 |
| Hamas attacked Israel in part to undermine an Israeli-Saudi deal, many experts believe. Such a deal could isolate Iran, Hamas’s patron, and could lead to an infusion of Saudi money for the Palestinian Authority, a more moderate group than Hamas (as Thomas Friedman explains in this column). But if the recent Hamas attacks lead Israel to reduce the Gaza Strip to rubble in response, Saudi Arabia will have a hard time agreeing to any treaty. | 许多专家认为，哈马斯袭击以色列的部分原因是为了破坏以色列和沙特之间的协议。这样的协议可能会孤立哈马斯的资助者伊朗，并可能导致沙特向巴勒斯坦民族权力机构注入资金，后者是一个比哈马斯更温和的组织（正如托马斯·弗里德曼在这篇专栏文章中所解释的那样）。但是，如果哈马斯最近的袭击导致以色列将加沙地带夷为平地作为回应，沙特阿拉伯将很难同意任何条约。 |
| “This will slow considerably if not kill the Saudi Abraham Accords deal,” Mara Rudman, a former U.S. diplomat, told The Times. | 前美国外交官玛拉·鲁德曼对《纽约时报》表示：“这即使不会扼杀沙特《亚伯拉罕协议》，也会大大拖慢其进展。” |
| In these ways, you can think of Hamas’s attacks as an attempt to prevent a reassertion of American power — and instead to continue pushing the world toward multipolarity. | 从这些方面来看，你可以认为哈马斯的袭击是为了阻止美国重新确立其权力，而不是继续推动世界走向多极化。 |
| I understand that some readers may question whether the long era of American power that’s now fading was worth celebrating. Without question, it included some terrible injustices, be they in Vietnam, Iran, Guatemala or elsewhere. But it also made possible the most peaceful era in recorded history, with a sharp decline in deaths from violence, as Steven Pinker noted in his 2011 book, “The Better Angels of Our Nature.” And the number of people living in a democracy surged. | 我明白，一些读者可能会质疑，漫长的、现在正在消逝的美国强权时代是否值得赞美。毫无疑问，它包含了一些可怕的不公正，无论是在越南、伊朗、危地马拉还是其他地方。但是，正如史蒂芬·平克在他2011年出版的《人性中的善良天使》(The Better Angels of Our Nature)中指出的那样，它也造就了有史以来最和平的时代，暴力致死人数大幅下降。生活在民主国家的人数激增。 |
| Smith concluded his Substack newsletter on the new Middle Eastern war this way: | 史密斯在他关于新中东战争的Substack通讯中总结道： |
| Over the past two decades it had become fashionable to lambast American hegemony, to speak derisively of “American exceptionalism,” to ridicule America’s self-arrogated function of “world police” and to yearn for a multipolar world. Well, congratulations, now we have that world. See if you like it better. | 在过去的二十年里，抨击美国霸权，嘲笑“美国例外论”，嘲笑美国自诩的“世界警察”职能，渴望多极世界，已经成为一种时尚。恭喜你，现在我们拥有了那样的世界。看看你是否更喜欢它。 |
| More Israel-Hamas coverage | 更多关于以色列和哈马斯的报道 |
| • Israel is fighting to retake towns and ordered a “complete closure” of Gaza. More than 700 people have died in Israel. | • 以色列正为夺回城镇而战，并下令“全面封锁”加沙。有700多人在以色列丧生。 |
| • Israel just struck a marketplace in Gaza, and hundreds of other strikes have leveled whole buildings and homes. At least 493 Palestinians have died. | • 以色列刚刚袭击了加沙的一个市场，另有数以百次的攻击，将整栋建筑和房屋夷为平地。至少有493名巴勒斯坦人丧生。 |
| • “Everyone was surprised”: Palestinians also said they were shocked by the Hamas attack. This video shows the destruction in Gaza. | • “所有人都很惊讶”：巴勒斯坦人也表示，他们对哈马斯的袭击感到震惊。这段视频显示了加沙的破坏情况。 |
| • Thousands of Israeli soldiers and tanks are on the southern border with Gaza, a possible prelude to a ground assault. “We are embarking on a long and difficult war,” Netanyahu said. | • 成千上万的以色列士兵和坦克部署在与加沙接壤的南部边境，这可能是地面进攻的前奏。内塔尼亚胡说：“我们正在展开一场漫长而艰难的战争。” |
| • Hamas and other militants are holding an estimated 150 hostages. They could become human shields or bargaining chips. | • 哈马斯和其他武装分子扣押了约150名人质。他们可能成为人肉盾牌或谈判筹码。 |
| • Militants killed ravers and took hostages at a music festival just after dawn on Saturday. Read how the massacre unfolded and watch a video of one abduction. | • 上周六黎明时分，武装分子在一个音乐节上杀害了正在锐舞狂欢的人，并劫持人质。了解大屠杀是如何展开的，以及其中一场绑架的视频。 |
| • The Pentagon announced it would send munitions to Israel and move Navy warships, including an aircraft carrier, closer to the region. | • 五角大楼宣布将向以色列运送弹药，并将包括一艘航空母舰在内的海军军舰调往离该地区更近的地方。 |
| • People demonstrated in solidarity with the Palestinians across the Middle East. | • 中东各地的人们举行示威，声援巴勒斯坦人。 |
| • The failure of Israel’s intelligence agencies to foresee the attack could affect their reputation — and the political future of Netanyahu. | • 以色列情报机构未能预见到袭击，这可能会影响它们的声誉——以及内塔尼亚胡的政治未来。 |
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