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| The most sweeping invasion of Israeli territory in decades, conducted by a Hamas force that had been widely seen as a ragtag collection of militants, has delivered a psychological shock to Israel so great that its very foundations are being questioned: its army, its intelligence services, its government and its capacity to control the millions of Palestinians in its midst. | 一支被普遍认为由各种武装分子混杂而成的哈马斯武装对以色列领土发起了几十年来最大规模的侵略，给后者带来极大的心理冲击，以至于令人对其国家根基产生质疑，也就是它的军队、情报机构、政府，以及它管控数百万生活于其中的巴勒斯坦人的能力。 |
| The war that began with a Hamas assault that has taken as many as 700 Israeli lives is not an existential struggle for the survival of the Israeli state itself, as were the 1948 war triggered by Israel’s foundation or the 1973 Yom Kippur War. But 75 years, and a half-century, respectively, from those conflicts, the sight of villages once again overrun, hostages seized and desperate civilians being killed by Palestinian militants has awakened a kind of primal dread. | 这场因哈马斯的袭击而起的战争已经导致700名以色列人丧生，但与1948年因色列建国引发的战争或1973年赎罪日战争不同，它并非是一场关乎以色列国家存亡的斗争。然而，在那两场战争已经分别过去75年和半个世纪后，村庄再一次被践踏、人质被劫持、平民百姓在绝望中被巴勒斯坦武装人员杀死，这一切都唤醒了一种原始的恐惧感。 |
| “Israelis are shaken to the core,” said Yuval Shany, a professor of international law at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “There is outrage at Hamas, but also at the political and military leadership that allowed this to happen. You would expect a state this strong to prevent such things, yet 75 years from Israel’s creation the government has failed in its principal responsibility: the protection of the lives of its citizens.” | “以色列的震惊是刻骨铭心的，”耶路撒冷希伯来大学国际法教授尤瓦尔·沙尼说。“这其中有对哈马斯的愤怒，也有对让这一切得以发生的政治和军事领导层的愤怒。这么强势的一个政府理应防止这种事情发生，然而建国75年后的今天，政府没能履行其首要职责：保护国民的生命。” |
| As with the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War, disbelief has mingled with anger at a colossal intelligence failure. | 和赎罪日战争爆发时一样，如此重大的情报失败令人在愤怒中还夹杂着难以置信。 |
| In 1973, the assumption was that after Israel’s lightning victory in the 1967 Six-Day War, Syria and Egypt were spent forces. Today, the belief had grown that Hamas was uninterested in large-scale violence and that it could even be a useful vehicle for weakening the more moderate Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, thus burying talk of a Palestinian state. | 1973年时，人们认为在1967年以色列以迅雷之势取得六日战争胜利后，叙利亚和埃及已经是强弩之末。在今天，人们渐渐开始相信哈马斯对大规模的暴力已经失去兴趣，甚至可以利用它去削弱约旦河西岸相对温和的巴勒斯坦民族权力机构，从而打消巴勒斯坦建国的可能性。 |
| “The fact that we were allowing the most extreme Palestinian elements to grow stronger was overlooked, and Israel was revealed as totally unprepared, strategically and operationally,” said Shlomo Avineri, a political scientist in Jerusalem. | “我们是在容许巴勒斯坦最极端的势力发展壮大，这一点被忽视了，现在大家都看到以色列毫无准备，无论战略还是操作，”耶路撒冷政治学家什洛莫·阿维内里说。 |
| A page has been turned, whatever the outcome of the war that has just begun. Israel has not, after all, moved beyond the conflict that has haunted it since the creation of the modern state in 1948: the claims of two peoples, Jewish and Palestinian, to the same narrow strip of land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River. | 无论这场刚刚开始的战争将会如何收场，书都翻到了新的一页。到头来，以色列还是没能摆脱自1948年建立现代国家以来一直纠缠着它的冲突：两个群体——犹太人和巴勒斯坦人——对地中海和约旦河之间的同一个狭长地带持有领土主张。 |
| Its wealth, vibrant start-up culture and increasing acceptance in the Middle East could not forever mask a fundamental Israeli instability. Now the shock to its self-image is so great that, after the initial rallying to the flag, Israel could be projected into a period of profound social and political turbulence. | 它的富有、繁荣的创业公司文化和日益为中东地区所接纳并不能永远掩盖以色列从根本上的不稳定性。如今它的形象受到了严重破坏，在最初同仇敌忾的情绪过后，以色列在社会和政治层面应该会面临一场深刻的动荡。 |
| Certainly, heady talk of a transformative normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, brokered by the Biden administration, seems optimistic as a result of the Hamas attack. | 人们曾经忘乎所以地谈论着在拜登政府的斡旋下，沙特和以色列会如何达成划时代的关系正常化协议，如今由于哈马斯的袭击，这无疑显得过于乐观了。 |
| This blow to Israel comes at a time of deep internal unease. Dismay that the Israel Defense Forces, the revered institution at the core of the nation’s security, could allow such a multipronged Palestinian assault to happen — and then appear slow to react — has been compounded by a widespread sense that the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was fatally distracted. | 遭受这一打击之际，以色列内部正深陷不安。作为国家安全核心而备受敬仰的以色列国防军居然让巴勒斯坦实现这样一场多面夹击的进攻——后来又表现得反应迟缓，人们对此感到失望，并普遍认为内塔尼亚胡政府注意力严重分散。 |
| Its focus on a fiercely contested judicial overhaul that would weaken the independence of the judiciary, and so compromise democratic checks and balances, appeared to leave the situation in Gaza as a low priority. | 它正在全力推进一场引发剧烈争议的司法改革，最终会削弱司法的独立性，从而破坏民主的权力制衡，这似乎让加沙的局势成了不那么重要的事。 |
| Such were the Israeli protests against the government program that the military had to deal with more than 10,000 reservists threatening to refuse service, a major distraction. There have been no such threats since the Hamas attack. Distracting, too, were the wild settler projects in the West Bank backed by hard-right government ministers. | 以色列人对政府这一计划的抗议之强烈导致军方要面对超过10000名预备役军人威胁拒绝服役的状况，这极大地分散了军方的注意力。哈马斯的袭击发生后，这样的威胁不存在了。同样在分散注意力的还有强硬派政府部长们支持的那些疯狂的西岸定居点计划。 |
| “The government was fixated with a plan that had nothing to do with national security,” Mr. Shany said. “There is a clear link between that and the dismal Israeli performance. It does not look good for Mr. Netanyahu.” | “政府把心思都放在一个跟国家安全无关的计划上，”沙尼说。“这和以色列糟糕的表现是有明确关联的。这对内塔尼亚胡的形象没什么好处。” |
| The Yom Kippur war, an equally profound psychological shock for Israel, did not immediately turn national politics on its head. But within four years, in 1977, the Labor government that had run Israel since its foundation was defeated, a right-wing Likud government took power with a landslide victory, and Labor has scarcely recovered in the almost five decades since. | 赎罪日战争给以色列造成了同样的心理休克，但没有在第一时间导致国家政治的转向。然而在四年后的1977年，自建国以来一直领导国家的工党败选，右翼的利库德政府以一边倒的优势上台，此后的近50年里，工党始终没能真正恢复过来。 |
| Certainly, Mr. Netanyahu’s right-wing government appears to be in a deep hole, facing agonizing decisions over how sweeping the Israeli retaliation in Gaza should be. Gaza, controlled by Hamas, which the United States identifies as a terrorist organization, has long seethed in an overcrowded state of poverty and resentment, under a 16-year Israeli blockade. | 内塔尼亚胡的右翼政府无疑正处在一个非常尴尬的境地，他们需要做出痛苦的抉择——以色列在加沙的报复行动究竟应该进行到什么程度。在被美国认定为恐怖主义组织的哈马斯掌控下，拥挤的加沙常年处于贫困和怨恨中，被以色列封锁了16年。 |
| For many years the assumption had grown within Israel that the Palestinian question had become a nonissue and that a policy of tactical procrastination, as Israeli settlements in the West Bank grew ever larger, would ensure that no Palestinian state ever came into being. | 多年来，以色列内部渐渐开始认为，巴勒斯坦问题已经不构成问题，随着以色列在约旦河西岸的定居点不断扩张，战术性拖延政策可以确保巴勒斯坦国永远不能成为现实。 |
| The conflict became “the situation,” a bland term expressing a combustible status quo. Mr. Netanyahu emerged as the champion of a kick-the-can-down-the-road approach that left the two-state idea on life support. Israel normalized relations with several smaller Arab states. The Palestinian issue all but disappeared from the global agenda. There was talk of a new Middle East. | 冲突变成了“状况”，用这样一个平淡的词来表达一种会爆发的现状。内塔尼亚胡成了拖延方案的倡导者，两国方案已经名存实亡。以色列与多个较小的阿拉伯国家实现关系正常化。巴勒斯坦问题几乎已经从全球议题中消失。人们开始谈论一个全新的中东。 |
| All this, however, could not hide the elephant in the room: the growing Palestinian fury at humiliation and marginalization that had already led to a spike in West Bank violence this year. | 然而这一切都无法掩盖房间里那只大象：被欺辱和边缘化的巴勒斯坦人的愤怒与日俱增，今年已经出现暴力事件增加的迹象。 |
| The status quo was never really that. It incubated bloodshed by institutionalizing the steady advance of Israeli control over the more than 2.6 million Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Israel’s stranglehold on encircled Gaza, where another estimated 2.1 million Palestinians live. | 现状从来就不是那样。以色列稳步扩大对西岸占领区逾260万巴勒斯坦人的控制，并遏制被包围的加沙——那里生活着另外210万巴勒斯坦人，这一切的常态化，是在酝酿流血。 |
| In a recorded message, Muhammad Deif, the leader of Hamas’s military wing, described the objective of the “operation” as ensuring that “the enemy will understand that the time of their rampaging without accountability has ended.” The statement was clearly intended to rouse Palestinians from their acquiescence to powerlessness in Gaza and the West Bank. | 哈马斯军事机构领导人穆罕默德·德伊夫通过预先录制的视频表示，此次“行动”的目标是确保“敌人能明白，他们肆意横行的日子已经过去”。这段声明显然是希望在加沙和西岸的巴勒斯坦人站起来，不要甘于任人宰割。 |
| But the cost for both sides could be very high. The operation showed the world that, as Mr. Avineri put it, “Every Israeli Jew is, for Hamas, a legitimate target for killing.” That will not help the broader Palestinian cause with Western governments. | 但双方都要付出巨大的代价。阿维内里说，这场行动向世界表明，“对哈马斯来说，每一个以色列犹太人都是合理的击杀目标。”这无助于让西方政府接受巴勒斯坦人在更广泛层面上的诉求。 |
| Mr. Netanyahu has promised a “long and difficult war” now entering an “offensive phase, which will continue with neither limitations nor respite until the objectives are achieved.” Already more than 350 Palestinians have been killed. | 内塔尼亚胡承诺一场“漫长而艰难的战争”现在已经进入“进攻阶段”，不会有任何的约束和暂缓，直到达到自己的目的。已经有超过350名巴勒斯坦人丧生。 |
| The temptation is clearly strong for an overwhelming Israeli offensive to make sure Hamas is never again able to mount such an operation. A model could be the massive 2006 offensive in southern Lebanon; since then the border has been relatively quiet, although Hezbollah fired artillery shells Sunday on three Israeli posts in the contested Shebaa Farms area. | 用一场压倒性的进攻让哈马斯再也不能发起类似的行动显然是一个很有吸引力的目标。可以借鉴2006年在黎巴嫩南部的大规模进攻；那里的边境地区此后一直相对平静，不过本周日真主党对双方争夺中的舍巴农场的三个以色列哨所进行了火炮打击。 |
| But in Gaza, the presence of perhaps dozens of Israeli hostages seized by Hamas is a deeply complicating factor. Israel does not abandon its own. Executions of hostages in response to an Israeli assault would become an explosive domestic political issue. After what looks like a serious blunder, Mr. Netanyahu faces one of his most delicate challenges. | 然而在加沙，哈马斯可能掌握着数十名以色列人质，这将是一个令情况变得非常棘手的因素。以色列是不会放下自己人不管的。如果以色列的进攻导致对方处决人质，在国内政坛就会成为一个爆炸性的问题。在最初看起来相当蹩脚的表现之后，内塔尼亚胡要面对的是他生涯中最为复杂的一场挑战。 |
| “Issues of international law are certain to arise, around proportionality and collateral damage,” Mr. Shany said about the looming Israeli offensive, referring to legal restraints on the use of military force. “But the political interest in restraint is very limited. This will be a serious test for Israel. | “不成比例的、附带性的损害会促使人们提起国际法问题，”沙尼在提及以色列即将开展的进攻时，谈了使用军事力量的法律限制。“但是政治上没有多少理由去限制。这对以色列将是一个严峻的考验。” |
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