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为何俄美双双向朝鲜半岛寻求武器弹药
History Turns Upside Down in a War Where the Koreas Are Suppliers

来源:纽约时报    2023-09-15 12:35



        Washington and Moscow flooded the Korean Peninsula with arms and aid as they fueled the war between South and North seven decades ago. Now, in a fateful moment of history turning back on itself, Russia and the United States are reaching out to those same allies to supply badly needed munitions as the powers face each other down again, this time on the other side of the globe, in Ukraine.        70年前,美国和莫斯科介入朝鲜战争时,大量来自华盛顿和莫斯科的武器和援助涌入朝鲜半岛。如今,历史出现了宿命的反转,俄罗斯和美国正在寻找各自在朝鲜半岛的盟友来提供急需的武器弹药,这两个大国已再次发生对峙,这次是在位于地球另一端的乌克兰。
        When President Vladimir V. Putin met North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, in Russia’s far east on Wednesday, they struck what North Korea called “a satisfactory agreement​” on “the immediate cooperation matters​” between the two states, which have found common interests in opposing the United States and its allies. If any specific arms deal was struck, neither Moscow nor Pyongyang was expected to announce it. Buying weapons from North Korea or providing help for its weapons programs are violations of United Nations Security Council resolutions that Russia itself voted for.        俄罗斯总统普京周三在俄罗斯远东地区与朝鲜领导人金正恩会晤,他们就两国的“当前合作事项”(用朝鲜官媒的说法)“满意地达成协议”,两国已在反对美国及其盟友上找到了共同利益。如果两国达成了任何具体武器交易的话,估计莫斯科和平壤都不会宣布。从朝鲜购买武器,或支持其武器项目违反了俄罗斯自己曾投票支持的联合国安理会决议。
        Matthew Miller, a spokesman for the State Department in Washington,​ characterized the meeting ​as Mr. Putin “​begging Kim Jong-un for help.” But it is not just Russia turning to the Korean Peninsula for aid: Under deals worked out quietly with Washington, South Korea has been shipping large amounts of artillery shells to the United States for months. It insists that it is not supplying any lethal weapons directly to Ukraine. But its shipments to the U.S. military help free up American stocks for Ukraine to use in fighting Russia.        美国国务院发言人马修·米勒将两人的见面描述为普京“乞求金正恩的帮助”。但向朝鲜半岛寻求帮助的不只是俄罗斯:按照与美国悄悄达成的协议,韩国几个月来一直在向美国运送大量火炮弹药。韩国坚称自己不直接向乌克兰提供任何杀伤性武器。但这些交付美国军方的炮弹让美国可以将自己的库存转给乌克兰,用于和俄罗斯作战。
        The Korean War never officially ended after the guns fell silent in a cease-fire in 1953. ​Still technically at war, ​both Koreas have since engaged in an arms race, building two of the world’s largest standing armies, with large stockpiles of weapons.        朝鲜战争在1953年签订停火协议后平息了战火,但从未正式结束。严格说来,朝鲜半岛的双方仍处于战争状态,停战以来,朝鲜和韩国都一直在进行军备竞赛,建立了在世界上位居前列的常备军和大量武器库存。
        ​North Korea, though isolated and impoverished, has prioritized a military buildup, with its propaganda machines urging constant vigilance against American invasion. It developed its missiles by reverse-engineering Soviet systems. It is believed to have built its first intercontinental ballistic missiles with black-market rockets from Ukraine. The country has also earned cash by selling weapons to countries like Syria and Iran.        虽然朝鲜在国际上被孤立,国家处于贫困状态,但加强军事建设一直是优先事务,其宣传机器号召人民时刻警惕美国的入侵。朝鲜通过对苏联导弹系统进行逆向工程研发出自己的导弹。外界认为,朝鲜制造的第一枚洲际弹道导弹使用了来自乌克兰的黑市火箭。朝鲜还通过向叙利亚和伊朗等国出售武器来赚取外汇。
        South Korea has built its defense industry by copying weapons provided in military aid from the United States. It also grabbed technology where it could, developing its first space rocket with Russian technology. It, too, leveraged its arms industry for exports, winning multibillion-dollar contracts ​to sell tanks, howitzers, warplanes, missiles and armored vehicles to help feed the demand driven, in part, by the war in Ukraine.        韩国通过仿制美国军事援助提供的武器建起国防工业,也从各种可能的地方获取技术,使用俄罗斯技术研发出了自己的第一枚太空火箭。韩国还在出口上充分利用本国的军火工业,赢得了价值数十亿美元的坦克、榴弹炮、战斗机、导弹和装甲车销售合同,以帮助满足市场对武器的需求,这种需求部分是俄乌战争引发的。
        “In the post-Cold War era, South and North Korea have been virtually the only countries that have remained on a constant war footing, with large artillery and other weapons stockpiles ready to use,” said Yang Uk, a military expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul. “The fact that South and North Korea remain stuck in a Cold War armed confrontation explains why Washington and Moscow come to them seeking weapons.”        “在冷战后的时代,几乎只有韩国和朝鲜一直是时刻准备要打仗的国家,它们都拥有大量可投入使用的火炮和其他武器库存,”首尔的峨山政策研究院的军事专家杨旭(音)说。“韩国和朝鲜仍处于冷战时代的武装冲突,这个事实解释了为什么华盛顿和莫斯科来向这两个国家寻求武器帮助。”
        Artillery ammunition has been in particular demand as both sides in the Ukraine conflict tear through their stores faster than production can catch up. South Korean and American officials have been tight-lipped about how many shells South Korea has provided to the United States, and Seoul treats information on its weapons stocks as top secret. But recent news reports indicated that South Korea has sold or lent at least hundreds of thousands of artillery shells to the U.S. military.        由于俄乌冲突双方的炮弹生产跟不上消耗的速度,对炮弹的需求尤其旺盛。韩国和美国的官员们一直对韩国已向美国提供了多少炮弹守口如瓶,韩国政府对有关本国武器库存的信息守口如瓶。但最近的新闻报道显示,韩国已向美军出售或出借了至少数十万枚炮弹。
        Moscow has repeatedly warned Seoul against supplying weapons to Ukraine. But South Korea has been pressed by the United States, its most important ally, to help the war effort. The administration of President Yoon Suk Yeol decided to supply shells to the United States, designating it as the “end user” for the munitions.        莫斯科已多次警告首尔,不要向乌克兰提供武器。但韩国一直受到来自其最重要的盟友美国的压力,美国要求韩国为这场战争提供帮助。尹锡悦总统的政府已决定向美国供应炮弹,将美国指定为这些炮弹的“终端用户”。
        “It’s basically left to the U.S. to decide whether to send the shells it received from South Korea to Ukraine,” Mr. Yang said.        “这基本上是让美国来决定是否把从韩国获得的炮弹运往乌克兰,”杨旭说。
        So far, no evidence has emerged that shells made in South Korea have been used in Ukraine. Nor has there been any public evidence that Russia has used North Korean arms and ammunition on the battlefield in Ukraine — evidence that Washington would be eager to publicize. But U.S. officials have repeatedly warned that North Korea was shipping artillery shells and rockets to Russia.        到目前为止,还没有证据表明韩国制造的炮弹已在乌克兰使用。也没有任何公开证据表明俄罗斯已在乌克兰战场上使用朝鲜制造的武器弹药,如果有的话,华盛顿会迫不及待地公布这些证据。但美国官员已多次警告,朝鲜正在向俄罗斯运送炮弹和火箭。
        Arms deals between Mr. Kim and Mr. Putin could prompt hawks in South Korea to call for sending weapons directly to Ukraine — another reason Moscow and Pyongyang would likely refrain from publicizing such deals. But North Korea does have what Mr. Putin is seeking.        金正恩和普京之间的武器交易可能会促使韩国鹰派人士呼吁直接向乌克兰运送武器,这也是莫斯科和平壤可能不把这种交易公开的另一个原因。但朝鲜确实有普京想要的东西。
        “Most likely, North Korea has tens of millions of shells for artillery in stock,” said Siemon T. Wezeman, an arms researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden, noting that the country is estimated to have up to 10,000 artillery guns of 100 mm or higher calibers — more than the total of such weapons in use by all NATO countries. North Korea’s weapons are based off Soviet designs, and its artillery shells are in calibers used by Russia.        “朝鲜很可能有数千万枚火炮炮弹的库存,”在瑞典斯德哥尔摩的国际和平研究所研究武器的专家西蒙·T·韦泽曼说。他指出,朝鲜据估计拥有多达1万门100毫米或更大口径的火炮,多于所有北约国家部署的这类武器的总和。朝鲜的武器以苏联的设计为基础,其炮弹的口径与俄罗斯相同。
        “Basically, Russia has a large number of guns that are compatible with North Korean ammunition,” Mr. Wezeman said. “The only ammunition North Korea cannot supply is smart ammunition. North Korea produces mainly the good, old, dumb, unguided — and thus not very precise — shells and not the more effective guided shells.”        “基本上,俄罗斯有大量与朝鲜的弹药兼容的武器,”韦泽曼说。“朝鲜唯一无法提供的弹药是智能弹药。朝鲜主要生产老式的非智能、非制导——因而也不是很精确的——弹药,而不是更有效的制导弹药。”
        One big question is how fast North Korea could supply munitions in the amounts Russia needs without being caught.        一个大问题是,朝鲜能以多快的速度向俄罗斯提供其所需的弹药而不被外界发现。
        North Korea runs a vast network of munitions factories, including 100 plants that each employ more than 10,000 workers, said Hong Min, an expert on the North Korean military at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul.​ One site Kim Jong-un visited in August, described in state media as “a new light electrical appliance factory” under construction, is involved in making shells and gunpowder, Mr. Hong said.        朝鲜运行着一个庞大的军火工厂网,包括100家军工厂,每家雇有逾1万名工人,首尔韩国国家统一研究院的朝鲜军事问题专家洪敏(音)说。金正恩今年8月视察的一家工厂在朝鲜官媒的报道中被描述为正在建设的“生产轻型电机机械的新工厂”,洪敏说,这家工厂主要生产炮弹和火药。
        “There seems to have been behind-the-scenes negotiation for North Korea to serve as a rear base of supplies for Russia,” he said.        “似乎一直有让朝鲜成为俄罗斯的后方供应基地的幕后谈判,”他说。
        In return for its weapons, North Korea hopes to get Russian food, energy and parts for its aging fleet of Soviet-era warplanes, tanks, howitzers and submarines, analysts said. It also covets recent versions of Russia’s Sukhoi fighter jets and its S-300 and S-400 air defense systems, they said. While hosting Mr. Kim at the new Russian spaceport, the Vostochny Cosmodrome, Mr. Putin indicated that Russia may help North Korea with its troubled military spy satellite program.        分析人士称,朝鲜提供武器想得到的回报是从俄罗斯获得食品和能源,以及其年久失修的苏联时代战斗机、坦克、榴弹炮和潜艇等的零部件。他们说,朝鲜还想得到最新款的俄罗斯苏霍伊战斗机及其S-300和S-400防空系统。普京在俄罗斯的新航天发射场东方航天发射场接待金正恩时表示,俄罗斯可能会为朝鲜陷入困境的军事间谍卫星项目提供帮助。
        ​Mr. Kim was expected to visit weapons factories and naval facilities in Komsomolsk-on-Amur and Vladivostok in Russia’s far east later this week.​        预计金正恩将在本周晚些时候访问位于俄罗斯远东阿穆尔河畔共青城和符拉迪沃斯托克的武器工厂和海军设施。
        Analysts warn that Mr. Kim’s diplomacy with Mr. Putin entails more than weapons trade, signaling a broader shift in his policy — from seeking negotiations with Washington to more definitively aligning with Russia and China against the United States.        分析人士警告,金正恩与普京的外交不仅仅牵涉到武器贸易,也表明金正恩的对外政策正在发生更广泛的转变,从寻求与美国谈判转向更明确地与俄罗斯和中国结盟对抗美国。
        But despite the warming ties between Russia and North Korea, there is still doubt that Mr. Putin would go so far as to provide North Korea with technology to perfect its ICBMs or build nuclear-powered submarines.        但尽管俄罗斯和朝鲜的关系不断升温,人们仍然不确定,普京是否会走到为朝鲜完善其洲际弹道导弹或建造核动力潜艇提供技术帮助那一步。
        “Even a desperate war machine does not trade its military crown jewels for old, dumb munitions,” said Professor Leif-Eric Easley of Ewha Womans University in Seoul. “Trust is so low among Russia, North Korea and China that a real alliance of the three isn’t credible or sustainable.”        “就算是俄罗斯的战争机器铤而走险,也不会用自己军事皇冠上的明珠来换取老旧的非智能弹药,”首尔梨花女子大学教授李雷夫(Leif-Eric Easley)说。“俄罗斯、朝鲜和中国之间的信任如此之低,三国的真正联盟让人难以置信,也不会持久。”
                
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