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解读中国最新经济数据:触底反弹在即还是持续疲软
China’s Slumping Economy: What the Latest Numbers Are Signaling

来源:纽约时报    2023-09-18 09:08



        China’s trains, planes, stores and beaches were a little fuller last month than a year ago, and the pace of activity picked up at factories, particularly those making mobile phones and semiconductors.        相比去年同期,8月中国乘坐火车和飞机、前往商店和海滩的人稍微多了一些,工厂的运转节奏有所加快,尤其是手机和半导体制造商。
        A batch of numbers released on Friday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed a modest improvement in the country’s overall retail sales and industrial production during August. A series of small steps taken by the government over the summer, including two rounds of interest rate cuts, seems to be yielding a slightly better-than-expected improvement in the country’s economy.        中国国家统计局周五公布的一系列数据显示,8月全国零售额和工业生产略有提振。政府今夏采取的一揽子微调措施——包括两轮降息——似乎为中国经济带来了略好于预期的改善。
        “The national economy has accelerated its recovery, production and supply have increased steadily, market demand has gradually improved,” Fu Linghui, China’s director of national economic statistics, said at a news conference.        “国民经济加快恢复,生产供给稳中有升,市场需求逐步改善,”国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在新闻发布会上表示。
        But many foreign economists were more guarded.        但许多外国经济学家对此保持了较为谨慎的态度。
        “Some may be of the view that China’s economy has already bottomed out, but we remain cautious,” said a research note from Nomura, a Japanese bank.        “可能有观点认为中国的经济已经触底,但我们仍然存疑,”日本银行野村证券在一份研究报告中表示。
        Real estate remains a persistent risk.        房地产的风险持续存在。
        The broad troubles of China’s real estate sector continue to cast a long shadow over the country’s economic prospects. Property investment plummeted nearly a fifth in August from the same month a year ago, an even steeper decline than in July.        中国房地产行业普遍陷入困境,给其经济前景蒙上了深重阴影。8月房地产投资同比暴跌近五分之一,降幅甚至比7月更大。
        Construction sites around China appear visibly less busy, although activity has not stopped entirely and tower cranes still dot the skyline.        全国各地的建筑工地明显没有以往繁忙,虽然不见得完全停止了活动,天际线上也还是点缀着塔吊。
        Construction of new apartment towers has faltered because of falling apartment prices.        由于房价不断下跌,新房建设已经停滞不前。
        Based on data released on Friday for prices of new apartments in 70 large and medium-sized cities across China, Goldman Sachs calculated that prices were falling in August at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.9 percent, compared with 2.6 percent in July.        根据周五公布的中国70个大中城市的新房价格数据,高盛计算出中国8月经季节调整后的房价下降年率为2.9%,而7月为2.6%。
        The statistics for new apartments considerably understate the speed and extent of price declines, however, as local governments have put heavy pressure on developers not to cut prices.        不过,由于地方政府向开发商施加了巨大压力,要求其不准降价,新房数据大大低估了房价下跌的速度和程度。
        Prices of existing homes in 100 cities across China fell an average of 14 percent by early August from their peak two years earlier, according to the Beike Research Institute, a Tianjin research firm. Rents have fallen 5 percent.        天津研究机构贝壳研究院的数据显示,截至8月初,中国100个城市的现房价格较两年前的峰值平均下跌14%。租金也下降了5%。
        Construction and related activities, including public works projects, make up at least a quarter of the Chinese economy. The government has tried to offset the plunge in apartment construction by demanding that already deeply indebted local and provincial governments undertake a debt-fueled wave of large projects, including new subways, municipal water systems, highways, public parks, high-speed rail lines and other infrastructure.        包括公共工程项目在内的建筑及相关活动至少占到中国经济四分之一。为了弥补住房开发暴跌的损失,政府要求本已债台高筑的地方和省级政府来承担大量举债支撑的大型项目,包括新地铁、市政供水系统、高速公路、公园、高铁线路和其它基础设施。
        Banks are being squeezed.        银行正在受到挤压。
        Loans that China’s banks have made to property developers, dozens of which have defaulted on debt payments, are in trouble. So are loans to local governments and their financial affiliates involved in real estate. Banks are allowed to demand immediate repayment if work on a construction project has stopped, but they are reluctant to do so. Demand for new real estate loans remains weak.        中国银行向房地产开发商发放的贷款已经问题重重,数十家开发商出现还款违约的情况。向地方政府及其涉及房地产业务的金融分支机构发放的贷款也是如此。如果建设项目停止,银行可以要求立即偿付,但它们不愿这样做。新开发项目的贷款需求仍然疲软。
        The central bank, the People’s Bank of China, announced on Thursday that it was freeing banks to set aside smaller reserves and start extending more credit. The move was widely seen as intended to accommodate an upcoming large batch of bond issuance by local and provincial governments to pay for their infrastructure projects.        央行中国人民银行周四宣布,将允许银行降低存款准备金,开始扩大放贷。此举被普遍认为是为地方和省级政府即将发行的大量债券提供资金,以支付基础设施项目的费用。
        Investment in fixed assets was held back by property woes.        固定资产投资也受到了房地产危机的抑制。
        Overall investment in what are known as fixed assets was up 3.2 percent for the first eight months of this year compared to the same months last year — infrastructure spending plus some manufacturing investment offset the property nosedive. The pace through August represented a slowdown from 3.4 percent the prior month.        与去年同期相比,今年前八个月的固定资产总投资增长了3.2%,基础设施支出加上一些制造业投资弥补了房地产的暴跌。8月增速较上个月的3.4%有所放缓。
        The production of semiconductors rose 21.1 percent in August from a year earlier. The government has more heavily subsidized chip-making as the United States has restricted the export to China of a few of the highest-speed computer chips and of the gear to manufacture them.        8月半导体产量比去年同期增加了21.1%。由于美国限制向中国出口少数速度最快的计算机芯片及其制造设备,中国政府加大了对芯片制造业的补贴力度。
        The value of China’s industrial production, a proxy for the activity of factories, rose 4.5 percent in August from a year ago after adjusting for considerable deflation in wholesale prices for factory goods over the past year. The increase had been 3.7 percent in July.        8月,中国工业产值——反映工厂活动的指标——在扣除过去一年工业品批发价格大幅下跌的因素后,较去年同期增长4.5%。7月的增幅为3.7%。
        Consumers are changing how they spend.        消费者的消费方式正在改变。
        Retail sales were up 4.6 percent in August from the same month last year, as rising energy prices likely pushed up retail sales, Nomura said.        野村证券表示,8月零售额较去年同期增长4.6%,原因是能源价格上涨可能推高了零售。
        A main reason that retail sales rebounded was because a year ago, people in China were still living under stringent “zero Covid” measures that restricted their activity.        零售额反弹的一个主要原因是,中国民众一年前仍生活在严格的“新冠清零”措施之中,活动受到限制。
        Beer and wine production dropped from a year ago while output rose for bottled water, carried by many Chinese people during outdoor activities, and production of fruit and vegetable juices climbed sharply.        啤酒和葡萄酒产量较一年前有所下降,而许多中国人在户外活动时随身携带的瓶装水产量上升,果蔬汁产量也大幅增加。
                
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