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美中恢复沟通渠道,但对话前景仍不明朗
The U.S. and China Are Talking Again. Where It Will Lead Is Unclear.

来源:纽约时报    2023-09-01 02:17



        When Gina Raimondo, the commerce secretary, visited China this week, she joined a long line of U.S. politicians who have come to the country to try to sway Chinese officials to open their market to foreign businesses and buy more American exports, in addition to other goals.
        商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多于本周访问中国,成为一系列来到中国,试图说服中国官员向外国企业开放市场、购买更多美国出口商品以及实现其他目标的美国政界人士之一。
        Ms. Raimondo left Shanghai on Wednesday night with no concrete commitments from China to treat foreign businesses more equitably or step up purchases of Boeing jets, Iowa corn or other products. In a farewell news conference, she said that hoping for such an outcome would have been unrealistic.
        雷蒙多周三晚间离开上海时,中国没有做出公平对待外国企业,或增加波音飞机、艾奥瓦州玉米或其他产品采购力度的具体承诺。在告别新闻发布会上,她说,期望这样的结果是不现实的。
        Instead, Ms. Raimondo said her biggest accomplishment was restoring lines of communication with China that would reduce the chance of miscalculation between the world’s two largest economies. She and Chinese officials agreed during the trip to create new dialogues between the countries, including a working group for commercial issues that American businesses had urged her to set up.
        相反,雷蒙多说,她最大的成就是恢复了与中国的沟通渠道,这将减少世界上两个最大经济体之间出现误判的可能性。访华期间,她和中国官员同意在两国间建立新的对话,包括美国企业敦促她建立的一个商业问题工作组。
        “The greatest thing accomplished on both sides is a commitment to communicate more,” Ms. Raimondo said on Wednesday.
        “双方最大的成就是承诺加强沟通,”雷蒙多于周三说。
        She had also delivered what she described as a tough message. The Biden administration was willing to work to promote trade with China for many categories of goods. But the administration was not going to heed China’s biggest request: that the United States reduce stringent controls on exports of the most advanced semiconductors and the equipment to make them.
        她还传达了她所称的强硬信息。拜登政府愿意努力促进与中国的多类商品贸易,但不打算理会中国最大的要求:美国减少对最先进半导体及其制造设备出口的严格控制。
        “We don’t negotiate on matters of national security,” Ms. Raimondo told reporters during her visit.
        “我们不就国家安全问题进行谈判,”雷蒙多在访问期间告诉记者。
        While she called the trip “an excellent start,” the big question is where it will lead. There is a long history of frustrating and unproductive economic dialogues between the United States and China, and there are not many reasons to believe this time will prove different.
        虽然她称这次访问是“一个很好的开端”,但真正的问题是它能带来什么。长期以来,美中之间的经济对话一直令人沮丧,而且毫无成果,没有太多理由相信这一次会有所不同。
        Forums for discussion may have helped resolve some individual business complaints, but they did not reverse a broad, yearslong slide toward more conflict in the bilateral relationship. Now, the U.S.-China relationship faces a variety of significant security and economic issues, including China’s more aggressive posture abroad, its use of U.S. technology to advance its military and its recent raids on foreign-owned businesses.
        论坛讨论可能有助于解决一些个别企业的抱怨,但它们并没有扭转数年来双边关系中出现更多冲突的普遍趋势。现在,美中关系面临着一系列重大的安全和经济问题,包括中国在海外采取更加咄咄逼人的姿态,利用美国的技术来提升自己的军事实力,以及最近对外资企业的突击搜查。
        Ms. Raimondo says she has the backing of the president and U.S. officials. And Biden administration officials argue that even the shift to begin talking has been significant, after a particularly tense period. Relations between the United States and China became frosty last August when Representative Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker at the time, visited Taiwan, and they froze entirely after a Chinese surveillance balloon flew across the United States in February.
        雷蒙多表示,她得到了总统和美国官员的支持。拜登政府认为,在经历了一段特别紧张的时期后,即使是开始对话这样的转变也意义重大。去年8月,时任众议院议长佩洛西访台,美中关系一度陷入僵局。今年2月,中国的一个监控气球飞越美国上空,导致两国关系跌至冰点。
        Ms. Raimondo’s trip capped a summer of outreach by four senior Biden officials. R. Nicholas Burns, the U.S. ambassador to China, who took office in January 2022 and accompanied Ms. Raimondo on the trip, said on Tuesday that American officials “literally were not talking to the Chinese leadership at a senior level, my first 15 months here.”
        雷蒙多的访问为拜登四位高级官员的夏季外联活动画上了句号。2022年1月上任的美国驻华大使伯恩斯在雷蒙多访华期间陪同,他于周二表示,“在我来中国的头15个月里“,美国官员“实际上没有同中国领导层展开高层对话”。
        “In a very, very challenging relationship, intensive diplomacy is critical,” he added.
        “在一种非常、非常具有挑战性的关系中,密集的外交至关重要,”他还说。
        Not everyone views re-engagement as a good thing. Republican lawmakers, in particular, increasingly see the conflict between the United States and China as a fundamental clash of national interests. Critics view the outreach as an invitation for China to drag out reforms, or a signal to Beijing that the United States is willing to make concessions.
        并非所有人都认为重新接触是件好事。尤其是共和党议员,他们日益把美中之间的冲突视为国家利益的根本冲突。批评人士认为,这是在鼓励中国拖延改革,或者是向北京发出美国愿意让步的信号。
        “Of the more than two dozen great-power rivalries over the past 200 years, none ended with the sides talking their way out of trouble,” Michael Beckley, an associate professor of political science at Tufts University, wrote in Foreign Affairs this month. He added, “The bottom line is that great-power rivalries cannot be papered over with memorandums of understanding.”
         “在过去200年间发生的二十多次大国对抗中,没有哪一次是靠双方谈判解决问题来终止对抗的,”塔夫茨大学政治学副教授迈克尔·贝克利本月在《外交事务》杂志撰文称。他还表示,“关键在于,谅解备忘录掩盖不了大国竞争的事实。”
        The space for compromise also seems narrow. Both governments have little desire to be seen by domestic audiences as making concessions. And in both countries, the share of trade that is considered off limits or a matter of national security concerns is growing.
        妥协的空间似乎也不大。两国政府都不希望在国内被视为做出了让步。而在这两个国家,被视为禁区或国家安全问题的贸易越来越多。
        Ms. Raimondo expressed wariness at being drawn into unproductive talks with China — a persistent issue over the last several decades. But she also described herself as a pragmatist, who would push to accomplish what she could and not waste time on the rest.
        对于可能陷入徒劳的对华谈判——这是过去几十年来都存在的顽疾——雷蒙多表达了她的担忧。但她也称自己是务实主义者,会尽其所能达成目标,不会把时间浪费在其他问题上。
        “I don’t want to return to the days of dialogue for dialogue’s sake,” she said. “That being said, nothing good comes from shutting down communication. What comes from lack of communication is mis-assessment, miscalculation and increased risk.”
        “我不希望回到为了对话而对话的日子,”她说。“话虽如此,停止交流没有任何好处。缺乏沟通将会导致错误评估、误判以及风险的增加。”
        “We have to make it different,” Ms. Raimondo said of her new dialogue, adding that the U.S.-China relationship was too consequential. “We have to commit ourselves to take some action. And we can’t allow ourselves to devolve into a cynical place.”
        “我们必须换种方式,”雷蒙多在谈到她所谓的新对话时表示,并称美中关系的重要性不容低估。“我们必须承诺要采取行动,不能任由自己陷入犬儒氛围之中。”
        Kurt Tong, a former U.S. consul general in Hong Kong who is now a managing partner at the Asia Group, a Washington consulting firm, said Ms. Raimondo had offered China half of what it wanted. She sent a clear message that many American companies should feel free to do business in China, after years of receiving criticism for doing so during the Trump administration and still from many Republicans in Congress. But she did not agree to relax American export controls.
        美国前驻香港总领事、现任华盛顿咨询公司亚洲集团合伙人的唐伟康(Kurt Tong)表示,雷蒙多只满足了中国的一半要求。她发出了一个明确信号,即许多美国企业应该可以自由地在中国开展业务,但在特朗普执政的几年间,这些企业一直因此受到批评,至今国会里许多共和党人仍抱有这种态度。但她没有同意放松美国的出口管制。
        “China is essentially forced by circumstances to accept that half a loaf,” Mr. Tong said, adding, “I do sense there is a real desire in Beijing to stabilize the relationship, both because of the geopolitical relationship but also, perhaps more important, the doldrums on the economic side.”
        唐伟康说,“中国基本上是迫于形势,被迫接收这半块面包的。”他还说,“我是有感觉到北京确实希望稳定两国关系,这既有地缘政治关系的考虑,但可能更重要的还是因为经济上的低迷。”
        The recent weakness in the Chinese economy may create some opening for compromise. The Chinese economy has only limped back from its pandemic lockdowns. China’s youth unemployment rate has risen, its debt is piling up, and foreign investment in the country has fallen, as multinational companies look for other places to set up their factories.
        中国经济近来出现的疲软可能会促使其做出一些让步。该国经济刚从疫情封锁中勉强恢复过来。中国的青年失业率不断上升,债务堆积,外国投资也不断下降,因为跨国企业都在寻找其他地方建厂。
        In a meeting with Ms. Raimondo on Wednesday, the Shanghai party secretary, Chen Jining, admitted that the sluggish economy made business ties more crucial.
        周三,上海市委书记陈吉宁在会见雷蒙多时承认,低迷的经济使得维持商业联系变得更加重要。
        “The business and trade ties serve the role as stabilizing ballast for the bilateral ties,” Mr. Chen said. “However, the world today is quite complicated. The economic rebound is a bit lackluster. So stable bilateral ties in terms of trade and business is in the interest of two countries and is also called for by the world community.”
        “经贸关系是中美关系的压舱石,”陈吉宁表示。“但当今世界形势十分复杂。经济反弹有些许乏力。因此,稳定双边经贸关系符合两国利益,也是国际社会的共同呼声。”
        Ms. Raimondo responded that she was looking forward to discussing “concrete” ways they might be able to work together to accomplish business goals and “to bring about a more predictable business environment, a predictable regulatory environment and a level playing field for American businesses here in Shanghai.”
        雷蒙多回应道,她期待能就“具体”办法进行讨论,以便共同致力于实现商业目标,并“创造一个更稳定的商业环境,更可预知的监管环境,和一个对在上海的美国企业来说更公平的竞争环境”。
        Some of the issues that Ms. Raimondo raised during her visit — including intellectual property theft, patent protection and the inability of Visa and Mastercard to receive final approval for access to the Chinese market — are the very same ones that were discussed in economic dialogues with China more than a decade ago, including under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama.
        雷蒙多在访问期间提出的一些问题——包括知识产权窃取、专利保护以及Visa和万事达卡无法获得中国市场最终准入——都与十几年前美中经济对话中讨论的问题如出一辙,这可以追溯到小布什和奥巴马总统任内。
        For instance, China promised in 2001 as part of its entry into the World Trade Organization that it would quickly allow American credit card companies into its market, and it lost a W.T.O. case on the issue in 2012. But 22 years later, Visa and Mastercard still do not have equal access to the Chinese market.
        举个例子,中国在2001年加入世界贸易组织时承诺,很快就将允许美国的信用卡公司进入中国市场,2012年,中国还曾因此事在世贸组织败诉。但在22年后,Visa和万事达仍未获得中国市场的平等准入机会。
        For more than three decades, commerce secretary visits to China followed a familiar script. The visiting American official would call on China to open its markets to more American investment, and to allow more equal competition among foreign and local companies. Then the commerce secretary would attend the signing of contracts for exports to China.
        30多年来,历任美国商务部长在访华时都遵循着一个相似的套路。来访美国官员总会呼吁中国向更多的美资开放市场,并允许外企与本国企业进行更公平的竞争。商务部长随后则会出席各种对华出口协议的签约仪式。
        That included Barbara H. Franklin, who in 1992, at the end of the George H.W. Bush administration, oversaw the signing of $1 billion in contracts and the re-establishment of commercial relations with China after the deadly Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989.
        这包括1992年访华的芭芭拉·富兰克林,当时正值老布什执政末期,在1989年天安门广场的血腥镇压事件后,她主导签署了10亿美元的合约,并重建了美国对华商业关系。
        Gary Locke of the Obama administration oversaw the signing of a broad contract in 2009 for the provision of American construction services. And Wilbur Ross, who went to China on behalf of President Donald J. Trump in 2017, came back with $250 billion in deals for everything from smartphone components to helicopters to Boeing jets.
        2009年,奥巴马政府官员骆家辉主导签署了一份提供美国建筑服务的宽泛合约。2017年,威尔伯·罗斯代表特朗普总统访华,带回了价值2500亿美元的贸易合约,从智能手机零部件到直升机再到波音喷气机,产品种类包罗万象。
        These deals did little to erase China’s enormous trade imbalance with the United States. China has fairly consistently sold $3 to $4 a year worth of goods to the United States for each dollar of goods that it purchased.
        但这些合约仍没能消除美国对华贸易的巨大逆差。一直以来,中国每年从美国购买一美元商品,就会向美国出售价值三到四美元的产品。
        In a sign of how much the focus of the relationship has shifted, Ms. Raimondo’s trip contained more discussion of national security than of new contracts. She gave her final news conference in a hangar at Shanghai Pudong Airport near two Boeing 737-800s, but did not mention the contract for several Boeings that China has yet to accept, much less any new sales.
        雷蒙多此行更多是在讨论国家安全问题而非签署新合约,足以说明两国关系的焦点议题发生了多么重大的改变。在上海浦东机场的一处停机库,她在两架波音737-800飞机旁举行了最后一场新闻发布会,但没有提及中国尚未接受的几架波音飞机订单,更不用提开拓什么新销路了。
        China, the world’s largest single market for new jetliners in recent years, essentially stopped buying Boeing jets during the Biden administration and switched to Airbus planes from Europe to show its unhappiness with American policies. Ms. Raimondo said on Tuesday that she had raised the lapse of Boeing purchases with Chinese leaders during her two days in Beijing.
        作为近年来全球最大的单一新客机市场,中国在拜登执政期间实际上停止了波音飞机的采购,转而从欧洲购买空客飞机,以表达对美国政策的不满。雷蒙多周二表示,在访问北京的两天时间里,她向中方领导人提到了中国停止采购波音的情况。
        “I brought up all those companies,” Ms. Raimondo said. “I didn’t receive any commitments. I was very firm in our expectations. I think I was heard. And as I said, we’ll have to see if they take any action.”
        “我提到了所有这些企业,”雷蒙多说。“我没有得到任何承诺。对于我方的期望,我的立场十分坚定。我相信中方听到了我的话。正如我所说的,我们需要等待中方拿出具体行动。”
        
        
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