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| The United States has spent the past five years pushing to reduce its reliance on China for computer chips, solar panels and various consumer imports amid growing concern over Beijing’s security threats, human rights record and dominance of critical industries. |
| 在过去五年里，出于对中国所构成的安全威胁、它的人权记录以及在关键行业取得主导地位的日益担心，美国已在计算机芯片、太阳能电池板以及各种消费品的进口方面减少对中国的依赖。 |
| But even as policymakers and corporate executives look for ways to cut ties with China, a growing body of evidence suggests that the world’s largest economies remain deeply intertwined as Chinese products make their way to America through other countries. New and forthcoming economic papers call into question whether the United States has actually lessened its reliance on China — and what a recent reshuffling of trade relationships means for the global economy and American consumers. |
| 但就在美国的政策制定者和企业高管们寻找办法切断与中国的联系之际，有越来越多的证据表明，中国的产品正在通过其他国家进入美国，这两个世界最大经济体仍深深地纠缠在一起。新发表和即将发表的经济学论文对美国是否真的减少了对中国的依赖表示怀疑，阐述了贸易关系最近的重新调整对全球经济和美国消费者意味着什么。 |
| Changes to global manufacturing and supply chains are still unfolding, as both punishing tariffs imposed by the administration of former President Donald J. Trump and tougher restrictions on the sale of technology to China imposed by the Biden administration play out. |
| 由于前总统唐特朗普政府实施的惩罚性关税，以及拜登政府更严格地限制向中国出售技术的措施仍在继续，全球制造业和供应链的变化仍在进行中。 |
| The key architect of the latest restrictions — Gina Raimondo, the commerce secretary — is meeting with top Chinese officials in Beijing and Shanghai this week, a visit that underscores the challenge facing the United States as it seeks to reduce how much it depends on China when the countries’ economies share so many ties. |
| 最新限制措施的主要设计者是美国商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多，她本周在北京和上海与中国高级官员举行了会晤，突显了美国在寻求减少其对中国依赖程度上面临的挑战，因为两国经济仍有如此之多的联系。 |
| These reworked trade rules, along with other economic changes, have caused China’s share of imports into the United States to fall as the share of imports from other low-cost countries like Vietnam and Mexico have climbed. The Biden administration has also pumped up incentives for producing semiconductors, electric cars and solar panels domestically, and manufacturing construction in the United States has been rising quickly. |
| 美国改写贸易规则，加上其他经济变化，已导致中国产品在美国进口中的占比下降，同时，来自越南和墨西哥等其他低成本国家的产品在美国进口中的占比上升。拜登政府还加大了刺激力度，推动国内的半导体、电动汽车和太阳能电池板生产，美国制造业的建设已经加快。 |
| But new research discussed at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual conference at Jackson Hole in Wyoming on Saturday found that while global trade patterns have reshuffled, American supply chains have remained very reliant on Chinese production — just not as directly. |
| 但堪萨斯城联邦储备银行周六在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的年度会议上讨论的最新研究发现，虽然全球贸易格局已重新调整，但美国的供应链仍高度依赖中国的生产，只不过没有那么直接而已。 |
| In their paper, the economists Laura Alfaro at Harvard Business School and Davin Chor at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth wrote that China’s share of U.S. imports fell to about 17 percent in 2022 after peaking at about 22 percent in 2017, as the country accounted for a smaller share of America’s imports in categories like machinery, footwear and telephone sets. As that happened, places like Vietnam gained ground — supplying the United States with more apparel and textiles — while neighbors like Mexico began sending more car parts, glass, iron and steel. |
| 哈佛商学院的经济学家劳拉·阿尔法罗和达特茅斯塔克商学院的经济学家达文·卓尔在他们的论文中写道，中国在美国商品进口中所占的比例在2017年达到22%的峰值后，已在2022年降至约17%，主要是因为中国产品在美国进口的机械设备、鞋子、电话机等产品类别中的占比降低。与此同时，越南等国家增加了向美国出口服装和纺织品，而墨西哥等邻国已开始向美国出口更多的汽车零部件、玻璃，以及钢铁。 |
| That would seem to be a sign that the United States is lessening its reliance on China. But there’s a hitch: Both Mexico and Vietnam have themselves been importing more products from China, and Chinese direct investment into those countries has surged, indicating that Chinese firms are setting up more factories there. |
| 这似乎表明美国正在减少对中国的依赖。但这里面有个问题：墨西哥和越南等国都在从中国进口更多的产品，而中国对这些国家的直接投资已在激增，表明中国企业正在那里开设更多的工厂。 |
| The trends suggest that firms may simply be moving the last steps in their lengthy supply chains out of China, and that some companies are using countries like Vietnam or Mexico as staging areas to send goods that are still partly or largely made in China into the United States. |
| 这些趋势暗示，企业可能只是在将它们漫长供应链的最后部分转移出中国，而且一些企业正在把越南或墨西哥等国家作为中转站，从那里将部分或大部分仍在中国制造的商品运往美国。 |
| While proponents of decoupling argue that any move away from China may be a good thing, the reshuffling appears to have other consequences. The paper finds that shifting supply chains are also associated with higher prices for goods. |
| 尽管支持脱钩的人提出理由称，任何从中国转移出去的做法可能都是好事，但这种重新调整看来会有其他后果。该论文发现，供应链的转移与商品价格的上涨也有关系。 |
| A drop of five percentage points in the share of imports coming from China may have pushed prices on Vietnamese imports up 9.8 percent and Mexican imports up 3.2 percent, based on the authors’ calculations. While more research is needed, the effect could be slightly contributing to consumer inflation, they say. |
| 据论文作者计算，中国在美国商品进口中占比下降五个百分点，也许会导致美国从越南进口的产品价格上涨9.8%，从墨西哥进口的产品价格上涨3.2%。他们说，虽然还需要做更多的研究，但这种效应可能会对消费者价格指数上涨产生轻微影响。 |
| “That is our first caution — this is likely to have cost effects — and the second caution is that it is unlikely to diminish dependence” on China, Ms. Alfaro said in an interview. |
| “这是我们的第一个警告——转移供应链很可能会影响成本，我们的第二个警告是，这样做不太可能减少（对中国的）依赖，”阿尔法罗在接受采访时说。 |
| The research echoes findings from a forthcoming paper by Caroline Freund of the University of California, San Diego, and economists at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, which examined how trade in specific imports from China had changed since Mr. Trump began imposing tariffs on them. |
| 他们的研究与加州大学圣迭哥分校的卡罗琳·弗罗因德和世界银行以及国际货币基金组织的经济学家们即将发表的论文结果相符，后者研究了从中国进口的特定进口商品在特朗普对它们加征关税后，这些商品的贸易发生了怎样的变化。 |
| That paper found that tariffs had a substantial impact on trade, reducing U.S. imports of the goods that were subject to the levies, even as the absolute value of U.S. trade with China continued to rise. |
| 这篇论文发现，关税对贸易有很大影响，加征关税减少了美国对相关商品的进口，尽管美中贸易的绝对值持续上升。 |
| The countries that were able to capture the market share lost by China were those that already specialized in making the products that were subject to tariffs, like electronics or chemicals, as well as countries that were deeply integrated into China’s supply chains and had a lot of trade back and forth with China, Ms. Freund said. They included Vietnam, Mexico and Taiwan. |
| 能从中国失去的市场份额中分一杯羹的国家是那些已经擅长生产受关税影响产品（如电子产品或化学品）的国家，以及那些深度融入中国的供应链、与中国有大量贸易往来的国家，弗罗因德说。它们包括越南、墨西哥，以及台湾。 |
| “They’re also increasing imports from China, precisely in those products that they’re exporting to the U.S.,” she said. |
| “它们也正在增加从中国的进口，恰恰是那些它们出口到美国的产品，”她说。 |
| What this all means for efforts to bring manufacturing back to the United States is unclear. The researchers come to different conclusions about how much that trend is occurring. |
| 所有这一切对将制造业转移回美国的努力意味着什么尚不清楚。研究人员对这个趋势的发生程度意见不一。 |
| Still, both sets of researchers — as well as other economists at Jackson Hole, the Fed’s most closely watched annual conference — pushed back on the idea that these supply-chain shifts meant that global trade overall was retrenching, or that the world was becoming less interconnected. |
| 尽管如此，这两组研究人员以及在杰克逊霍尔参加美联储最受关注的年度会议的其他经济学家都不认同一种观点，那就是，这些供应链的转移意味着全球贸易已在整体上出现缩减，或世界的相互联系正在减少。 |
| The pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and tensions between the United States and China have prompted some analysts to speculate that the world may turning away from globalization, but economists say that trend is not really borne out in the data. |
| 新冠病毒大流行、俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，以及美中两国的紧张关系，已导致一些分析人士推测，世界也许正在朝着逆全球化的方向发展，但经济学家们说，这个趋势并没有真正得到数据的证实。 |
| “We don’t see de-globalization at a macro level,” Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the director general of the World Trade Organization, said during a panel at the Jackson Hole symposium. But she pointed to what she characterized as a worrying change in expectations. |
| “我们没有在宏观层面上看到去全球化，”世界贸易组织总干事恩戈齐·奥孔乔-伊维拉在杰克逊霍尔的一个小组会上说。但她也提到了其所谓预期中存在的令人担忧的变化。 |
| “Rhetoric on de-globalization is taking hold, and that feeds into the political tensions and then into the policymaking,” she said. “My fear is that rhetoric might turn into reality and we might see this shift in investment patterns.” |
| “去全球化的言论正在盛行，加剧了政治紧张局势，进而影响到政策制定，”她说。“我担心的是，言论可能会变成现实，我们可能会在投资模式上看到这种变化。” |
| Others at Jackson Hole warned of other consequences, such as product shortages. |
| 还有一些出席杰克逊霍尔会议的人对其他的后果（如产品短缺）发出了警告。 |
| A move toward production domestically or in only closely allied countries could “imply new supply constraints, especially if trade fragmentation accelerates before the domestic supply base has been rebuilt,” Christine Lagarde, the head of the European Central Bank, said in a speech on Friday. |
| 转向国内生产或只在密切盟友国家生产会“意味着新的供应制约，尤其是如果贸易碎片化在国内的供应基础重建之前加速的话”，欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德在上周五的讲话中说。 |
| Global supply chains tend to change slowly, because it takes time for companies to plan, invest in and construct new factories. Economists are continuing to track current changes to global sourcing. |
| 全球供应链的转移往往缓慢，因为企业制定计划、进行投资、建设新工厂需要时间。经济学家们正在继续跟踪当前全球采购的变化。 |
| Given growing geopolitical tensions with China as well as more recent troubles in the country’s economy, further shifts in global supply chains may be unavoidable. |
| 考虑到与中国有关的地缘政治紧张局势日益加剧，以及中国经济最近出现的问题，全球供应链的进一步转移也许不可避免。 |
| One question for economists now, Ms. Alfaro said, is whether the economic benefits from moving factories back to the United States or other friendly countries — like innovation in the U.S. manufacturing sector — will ultimately outweigh the costs of the strategy, for example, the higher prices paid by consumers. |
| 阿尔法罗说，经济学家们现在面临的一个问题是，将工厂迁回美国或迁到其他友好国家的经济效益（比如美国制造业的创新）最终是否会超过这个战略的成本（比如消费者支付的价格更高）。 |
| And separately, Ms. Freund said she believed the costs of reshoring had been “really under considered” by the government and others. |
| 另外的问题是，弗罗因德说，她认为政府和其他部门尚未“认真考虑”制造业回流的成本。 |
| The typical narrative was that “we’re going to bring it all back and we’re going to have all these jobs and it’s all going to be hunky-dory, but, in fact, it’s going to be extremely costly to do that,” she said. “Part of the reason we had such low inflation in the past was because we were bringing in lower-cost goods and improving productivity through globalization.” |
| 官员们的典型说法是，“我们将把所有的制造业带回来，我们将拥有所有这些工作岗位，这一切都将带来皆大欢喜的结果，但事实上，这样做的成本将极其高昂，”她说。“我们以前有那么低的通货膨胀率，部分原因是通过全球化，我们将低成本商品带回来，提高了生产率。” |
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