普京治下的俄罗斯铁律:违抗者后果自负_OK阅读网
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普京治下的俄罗斯铁律:违抗者后果自负
Rule No. 1 in Putin’s Russia: Defy Him at Your Peril

来源:纽约时报    2023-08-25 01:34



        When President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia let the mercenary tycoon Yevgeny V. Prigozhin escape seemingly unscathed after launching a mutiny in June, critics around the world seized on the Russian leader’s apparent show of wartime weakness. Some even said the brief rebellion presaged the start of the post-Putin era.        雇佣兵大亨叶夫根尼·普里戈任在6月发动兵变后,俄罗斯总统普京似乎让他毫发无损地逃脱了,世界各地的批评人士纷纷指出这位俄罗斯领导人在战时明显表现出了软弱。一些人甚至说,这场短暂的叛乱预示着后普京时代的开始。
        Two months later, Mr. Prigozhin is presumed dead in the mysterious crash of a private jet in a field between Moscow and St. Petersburg. Mr. Putin is securely in the Kremlin, publicly eulogizing Mr. Prigozhin as a talented person with a “complicated fate,” who made many mistakes in life. And the remaining Wagner group leadership is either dead or silent.        两个月后,一架私人飞机神秘坠毁在莫斯科和圣彼得堡之间的一片空地上,据推测普里戈任就在机上,已经死亡。普京安坐克里姆林宫,公开悼念普里戈任是一个“命运多舛”的天才,一生中犯了许多错误。剩下的瓦格纳集团领导层不是已经死去就是保持沉默。
        U.S. and other Western officials said their leading theory is that the plane was brought down by an explosion, and several, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said they believed Mr. Putin ordered it destroyed.        美国和其他西方官员表示,他们的主要看法是,飞机因爆炸坠毁,几名不愿透露姓名的官员说,他们认为是普京下令将飞机摧毁。
        In Mr. Putin’s Russia, fates can quickly change in a system where existential affronts to the leader are neither forgiven nor forgotten. For more than two decades, individuals who have posed threats to the Russian leader have regularly found themselves exiled, imprisoned or dead, swiftly stripped of their power.        在普京治下的俄罗斯,对领导人生死攸关的威胁不会被原谅,也不会被忘记,因此,人们的命运可以迅速改变。二十多年来,对这位俄罗斯领导人构成威胁的人经常被流放、监禁或死亡,他们的权力被迅速剥夺。
        The pattern began in the Russian leader’s earliest days, when Boris A. Berezovsky, an oligarch influential in Mr. Putin’s rise, ran afoul of him and fled, treated for years as a public enemy before his death in Britain in 2013 under murky circumstances. Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky, another oligarch who failed to fall in line, spent more than a decade in prison.        这种模式从这位俄罗斯领导人的统治初期就已经开始,当时对普京的崛起起到很大作用的寡头鲍里斯·别列佐夫斯基与普京发生冲突并出逃,多年来一直被视为公敌,2013年他在英国不明不白地死去。另一位不服从命令的寡头米哈伊尔·霍多尔科夫斯基在监狱里度过了十多年。
        Former members of the Russian security services considered traitors have met the grimmest fates. Alexander V. Litvinenko, a former spy who publicly accused Mr. Putin of running Russia like a crime syndicate, was fatally poisoned with a rare radioactive isotope in 2006. Sergei V. Skripal, the onetime intelligence officer who had been a double agent for the British, was derided by Mr. Putin as a “scumbag” and a “traitor,” after narrowly surviving a 2018 assassination attempt with a deadly nerve agent.        被视为叛徒的前俄罗斯安全部门成员命运最为悲惨。前间谍亚历山大·利特维年科曾公开指责普京像管理犯罪集团一样管理俄罗斯,2006年,他被一种罕见的放射性同位素毒死。谢尔盖·斯克里帕尔曾是情报官员,是英国的双面间谍,普京讥讽他是“人渣”和“叛徒”,2018年,他侥幸逃过了一场致命神经毒剂暗杀行动。
        Those posing political threats to Mr. Putin have also suffered. Opposition campaigner Boris Y. Nemtsov was gunned down on a bridge near the Kremlin in 2015. Pro-democracy campaigner Aleksei A. Navalny remains in prison in Russia, after surviving poisoning in 2020 with a nerve agent similar to the one used on Mr. Skripal.        对普京构成政治威胁的人也深受其害。2015年,反对派活动人士鲍里斯·涅姆佐夫在克里姆林宫附近的一座桥上被枪杀。亲民主活动人士阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼如今仍在俄罗斯的监狱中,2020年,他中了一种和斯克里帕尔一案类似的神经毒剂,侥幸活了下来。
        Although Mr. Prigozhin’s remains have not been officially identified, Mr. Putin said he had been briefed by investigators and “initial data” indicated members of the Wagner group were on board the plane that crashed.        尽管普里戈任的遗体尚未得到正式确认,但普京表示,调查人员已经向他汇报了情况,“初步数据”显示,失事飞机上有瓦格纳集团的成员。
        Whatever happened, questions about Mr. Prigozhin’s fate have stalked his every move from the moment Mr. Putin delivered an address on June 24 accusing him of “betrayal.”        不管发生了什么,从普京6月24日发表讲话指责普里戈任“背叛”的那一刻起,有关普里戈任命运的疑问就一直尾随着他。
        The word choice was unmistakable coming from an authoritarian leader who came up through the KGB and once famously called betrayal an unforgivable act.        对于一个克格勃出身、曾称背叛不可饶恕的专制领导人来说,选择这样的词,含义是明确无误的。
        Alexander Baunov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, wrote Thursday that when the word “traitor” is uttered by the leader in such a system, it must come with consequences.        周四,卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心高级研究员亚历山大·鲍诺夫写道,在这样一个体制下,当领导人说出“叛徒”这个词时,必然会带来后果。
        “Otherwise a system built on informal, conceptual principles and practices, rather than on institutions, risks becoming unmanageable,” Mr. Baunov said. “The absence of clear signs of the punishment of Prigozhin,” and the fact that he seemed to travel freely within Russia, “were increasingly interpreted as signs of helplessness and flabbiness in the system.”        “否则,一个建立在非正式的、观念性的原则和实践而非制度之上的体系,就有可能变得难以管理,”鲍诺夫说。“没有对普里戈任的明确惩罚,”以及他似乎在俄罗斯境内自由活动的事实,“越来越多地被解读为这个体系的无助和软弱。”
        The Wagner mutiny, which Mr. Prigozhin said was aimed at toppling Moscow’s military leadership but not the president, presented one of the biggest threats of Mr. Putin’s 23-year rule.        普里戈任说,瓦格纳兵变的目的是推翻莫斯科的军事领导层,而不是推翻总统。这是普京23年统治期间遭遇的最大威胁之一。
        “This is a knife in the back of our country and our people,” Mr. Putin said then, noting that “inflated ambitions and personal interests” had led to “treason.”        “这是在我们的国家和人民背后捅刀,”普京当时说,并指出“膨胀的野心和个人利益”导致了“叛国”。
        Mr. Putin refused to mention the tycoon by name, his common practice with those he views as enemies. The Russian leader vowed harsh punishment.        普京拒绝说出这位大亨的名字,这是他对待被他视为敌者的惯常做法。这位俄罗斯领导人发誓要做出严厉惩罚。
        So the response was collective puzzlement when hours later the Kremlin announced a deal to end the mutiny, whereby Mr. Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries would escape punitive measures and Mr. Prigozhin would leave for Belarus without facing prosecution.        因此,几小时后,当克里姆林宫宣布一项结束兵变的协议时,人们都感到困惑,根据协议,普里戈任的瓦格纳雇佣军将逃脱惩罚,普里戈任将前往白俄罗斯,而不会受到起诉。
        Some Kremlinologists theorized that Mr. Prigozhin escaped because he was too useful to the Kremlin, in Africa and potentially once again in Ukraine, where his forces wrested control of the city of Bakhmut in a rare Russian victory. Others said his fighters were too heavily armed and posed too big an immediate threat to be neutralized on the spot.        一些克里姆林宫问题专家推测,普里戈任之所以能够逃脱,是因为他对克里姆林宫太有用了,无论是非洲,或甚至可能再次回到乌克兰——在那里,他的军队夺取了巴赫穆特市的控制权,为俄罗斯打了一场罕见的胜仗。其他人则说,他的战士武装火力过重,构成的直接威胁太大,无法当场消灭。
        Still, some predicted a denouement that had yet to come.        尽管如此,一些人预测到了一个当时还未到来的结局。
        Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said the next day, “I don’t think we’ve seen the final act.” President Biden, asked about Mr. Prigozhin the following month, said, “If I were he, I would be careful what I ate.”        国务卿安东尼·布林肯第二天表示,“我认为我们还没有看到最终的结果。”拜登总统在下个月被问及普里戈任时说:“如果我是他,我吃东西时会小心。”
        Though his forces stood down, Mr. Prigozhin could hardly take back all that he had said in tirades against the Russian military leadership. His broadsides risked gaining traction among the Russian public, as he attacked corrupt and incompetent Russian elites waging an ill-managed war with little concern for the lives of rank-and-file soldiers.        尽管他的军队停了下来,但普里戈任针对俄罗斯军事领导层的长篇大论已是覆水难收。他攻击俄罗斯精英腐败无能,称他们发动了一场管理不善的战争,几乎不关心普通士兵的生命,他的这些猛烈抨击有可能引起俄罗斯公众的关注。
        For two months, Mr. Prigozhin functioned as a kind of ghost. He moved around Russia stealthily. He ceased releasing public statements. He slipped back into the shadows from which he had emerged the previous year.        两个月来,普里戈任就像一个影子。他在俄罗斯各地偷偷摸摸地活动。他不再发表公开声明。他去年从暗处现身,现在又回到了暗处。
        Mr. Putin, all the while, chipped away at the mercenary chief’s stature in public.        而普京一直在公开削弱这位雇佣军首领的形象。
        The Russian president emphasized that Wagner had been funded by the Russian state. The Russian defense ministry announced that it had collected the private military outfit’s vast arsenal of weaponry. Russian authorities set about dismantling the tycoon’s business empire.        俄罗斯总统强调瓦格纳是由俄罗斯资助的。俄罗斯国防部宣布已收缴这家私人军事机构的庞大武器库。俄罗斯当局着手瓦解这位大亨的商业帝国。
        Five days after the mutiny, during a meeting with Wagner’s top leadership at the Kremlin, Mr. Putin asked the commanders if they would be prepared to fight under a different leader, according to an interview the Russian leader gave to the newspaper Kommersant. Mr. Putin claimed he saw many heads nod in agreement, before Mr. Prigozhin, who was seated in front of the fighters and couldn’t see their faces, refused.        据《生意人报》对普京的采访报道称,兵变五天后,普京在克里姆林宫会见瓦格纳最高领导层,询问指挥官们是否准备好在另一位领导人的领导下作战。普京声称,他看到许多人点头表示同意,但普里戈任拒绝了,他坐在这些战士前面,看不到他们的脸。
        Legally speaking, Wagner doesn’t even exist, Mr. Putin told the paper, noting that Russian law didn’t allow for private military companies.        普京告诉该报,从法律上讲,瓦格纳根本不存在,并指出俄罗斯法律不允许私营军事公司存在。
        In late July, Mr. Prigozhin popped up in St. Petersburg while a Russia-Africa summit was taking place there. It yet again disproved the notion that he would retire to exile in Belarus and gave rise to speculation that he may have retained his influence at least as the Kremlin’s go-to man in Africa.        7月下旬,俄罗斯-非洲峰会正在圣彼得堡举行,普里戈任突然出现。这再次反驳了他将退休并流亡白俄罗斯的说法,并引发了人们的猜测,即他可能至少作为克里姆林宫在非洲的核心人物保留了影响力。
        The mercenary tycoon sought to propagate that idea in a video he released earlier this week, his first since the days of the mutiny.        这位雇佣军大亨试图在本周早些时候发布的一段视频中传达这一想法,这是他自兵变以来的第一个视频。
        Appearing in military fatigues in a place he said was 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit), he said Wagner fighters were carrying out search and reconnaissance activities, “making Russia greater on all continents and making Africa even freer.”        他身着军装,称当地温度高达50摄氏度,他说瓦格纳的战士正在进行搜索和侦察活动,“让俄罗斯在各大洲变得更强大,让非洲更加自由。”
        The following day, a private jet with Mr. Prigozhin’s name on the passenger manifest went down in a field in the Tver region while flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg.        第二天,一架乘客名单上有普里戈任的私人飞机在从莫斯科飞往圣彼得堡途中坠毁于特维尔地区的一片田野。
        Since the crash, Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels have been promising a statement by the remaining leaders of the group, which also apparently lost its founding commander, Dmitri V. Utkin, in the crash. As of late Thursday night, no statement had materialized.        自坠机事件发生以来,与瓦格纳关联的Telegram频道一直承诺该组织的其余领导人将发表声明,看起来该组织还在坠机事件中失去了其创始指挥官德米特里·V·乌特金。截至周四深夜,尚未有任何声明。
        The Russian military leaders that Mr. Prigozhin targeted in his short-lived mutiny, Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery V. Gerasimov, have remained in their positions. Mr. Putin regularly praises the Russian armed forces for holding back a Ukrainian counteroffensive.        普里戈任在其短暂兵变中针对的俄罗斯军事领导人——国防部长谢尔盖·绍伊古和总参谋长瓦列里·V·格拉西莫夫——仍然在任。普京经常赞扬俄罗斯武装部队阻止了乌克兰的反攻。
        In his remarks on Thursday, Mr. Putin underscored the contribution Wagner fighters had made to Russia’s war against Ukraine, an attempt to address its members — many of whom feel used and discarded after heavy losses in battle — and their supporters.        普京在周四的讲话中强调了瓦格纳战士对俄罗斯的乌克兰战争做出的贡献,这是在试图向其成员及其支持者讲话,瓦格纳的许多成员在战斗中遭受惨重损失后感到被利用和抛弃。
        Mr. Putin also expressed his “sincere sympathies” for the family members of those on board the flight and said an investigation would get to the bottom of what happened.        普京还对飞机上乘客的家属表示“诚挚的慰问”,并表示将进行调查,查明事件真相。
        “It will be carried out in full and completed,” Mr. Putin said. “There is no doubt about that.”        “将展开全面完整的调查,”普京说。“毫无疑问。”
                
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