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| A model Chinese property developer in a sector replete with risk takers is teetering on the edge of default. Short of cash, one of China’s biggest asset managers has missed payments to investors. And billions of dollars have flowed out of the country’s stock markets. | 房地产行业充斥着背负高风险的参与者，一家堪称典范的中国房地产开发商正在违约的边缘摇摇欲坠。由于缺乏现金，中国最大的资产管理公司之一未能向投资者付款。数十亿美元已从该国股市撤出。 |
| In China, August has been a dizzying ride. | 在中国，这个8月事件频出，令人眼花缭乱。 |
| What started three years ago as a crackdown on risky business behavior by home builders, and then an ensuing housing slowdown, has spiraled rapidly this month. The broader economy has been threatened, and the confidence of consumers, businesses and investors undermined. So far, China’s typically hands-on policymakers have done little to ease anxieties and seem determined to reduce the country’s economic reliance on real estate. | 政府从三年前开始打击住宅建筑商的高风险商业行为，房地产市场随后开始放缓，在本月则迅速失控。这威胁到了更广泛的经济领域，削弱了消费者、企业和投资者的信心。到目前为止，一向亲力亲为的中国政策制定者几乎没有采取任何措施来缓解人们的焦虑，而且似乎决心减少该国经济对房地产的依赖。 |
| “What is happening in the Chinese property market is really unprecedented,” said Charles Chang, who heads corporate credit ratings for Greater China at Standard & Poor’s. | 标准普尔大中华区企业信用评级主管张积豪表示：“中国房地产市场正在发生的事情确实是前所未有的。” |
| For the last three decades, as China’s population surged and its people flocked to cities seeking economic opportunity, developers couldn’t build modern apartments fast enough, and the property sector became the engine of a transforming economy. Real estate employed millions and provided a store for household savings. Today, the property sector accounts for more than a quarter of all economic activity. | 过去30年里，随着中国人口激增，人们涌入城市寻求经济机会，开发商建造的现代化公寓供不应求，房地产行业成为经济转型的引擎。房地产业雇用了数百万人，还成为家庭积蓄的存储手段。如今，房地产行业占全部经济活动的四分之一以上。 |
| China’s dependence on real estate was lucrative during what seemed like a never-ending property boom, but it has become a liability after years of excessive borrowing and overbuilding. When China was growing faster, the excesses were papered over as developers borrowed more to pay off mounting debts. But now China is struggling to regain its footing after emerging from the paralyzing pandemic lockdowns its leaders imposed, and many of its economic problems are pointing back to real estate. | 在看似永远不会结束的房地产繁荣时期，中国对房地产的依赖带来了丰厚的利润，但经过多年的过度借贷和过度建设，它已成为一种负担。当中国经济增长较快时，开发商借入更多资金来偿还不断增加的债务，从而掩盖了过度开发。但自从该国领导人实施的导致经济瘫痪的新冠封锁措施被取消后，中国正在艰难地试图重新站稳脚跟，许多经济问题又回到了房地产的问题上。 |
| Chinese consumers are spending less, in part because a slump in housing prices has affected their savings, much of which are tied up in property. Jobs tied to housing that were once abundant — construction, landscaping, painting — are disappearing. And the uncertainty of how far the crisis might spread is leaving companies and small businesses afraid to spend. | 中国消费者的支出减少，部分原因是房价暴跌影响了人们的积蓄，其中大部分与房地产相关。建筑、景观、涂料等与住房相关的行业的工作机会在过去很充足，而现在越来越少。人们不确定危机会蔓延到什么程度，这让公司和小企业不敢花钱。 |
| Local governments, which rely on land sales to developers to pay for municipal programs, are cutting back on services. | 依靠向开发商出售土地来支付市政项目费用的地方政府正在削减服务。 |
| Financial institutions known as trust companies, which invest billions of dollars on behalf of companies and rich individuals, are staring at losses from risky loans handed out to property firms, prompting protest from angry investors. | 信托公司——代表公司和富人投资数十亿美元的金融机构——曾向房地产公司发放高风险贷款，现在面临损失，引发了愤怒的投资者的抗议。 |
| The current property crisis is a problem of the government’s own making. Regulators allowed developers to gorge themselves on debt to finance a growth-at-all-costs strategy for decades. Then they intervened suddenly and drastically in 2020 to prevent a housing bubble. They stopped the flow of cheap money to China’s biggest real estate companies, leaving many short on cash. | 当前的房地产危机是政府自己一手造成的问题。监管机构允许开发商大肆举债，为几十年来不惜一切代价的增长战略提供资金。然后他们在2020年突然大举干预，以防止房地产泡沫。他们阻止廉价资金流向中国最大的房地产公司，导致许多公司出现现金短缺。 |
| One after another, the companies began to crumble as they could not pay their bills. More than 50 Chinese property developers have defaulted or failed to make debt payments in the last three years, according to credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s. The defaults have exposed a reality of China’s property boom: the borrow-to-build model works only as long as prices keep going up. | 一家又一家的公司因无力支付账单而开始倒闭。据信用评级机构标准普尔称，过去三年已有超过50家中国房地产开发商违约或无法偿还债务。这些违约事件暴露了中国房地产表面繁荣的现实：只有在价格持续上涨的情况下，借钱建房的模式才有效。 |
| As the property crisis has worsened, Chinese policymakers have defied calls to step in with a major rescue package. They have opted instead for modest gestures like relaxing mortgage requirements and cutting interest rates. | 随着房地产危机的恶化，中国政策制定者并没有听从用大规模救助项目介入的呼吁。相反，他们选择了放宽抵押贷款要求和降低利率等温和举措。 |
| In an editorial on Friday, the state-run Economic Daily said it would take time for recent policies to take effect: “We must be soberly aware that the process of defusing risk cannot be completed overnight, and the market must give it a certain amount of patience.” | 官方报纸《经济日报》在周五的社论中表示，近期政策的效果需要时间：“同时要清醒认识到，风险化解过程不可能一蹴而就，市场要给予一定的耐心。” |
| Policymakers have tolerated the fallout of the real estate crackdown because even the companies that aren’t able to pay all their bills have continued to build and deliver apartments. | 政策制定者容忍了打压房地产造成的后果，因为即使是那些无力支付所有账单的公司也在继续建造和交付公寓。 |
| China Evergrande, for example, defaulted on $300 billion of debt in 2021 and yet managed to finish and deliver 300,000 apartments out of the more than 1 million that it had taken money for but not completed at the time of its collapse. Evergrande filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States on Thursday. | 例如，中国恒大在2021年拖欠了3000亿美元的债务，危机发生时已收到款项但未完工的公寓超过100万，但最终设法建成30万套公寓并交付。恒大集团周四在美国申请破产保护。 |
| But a lot has changed in recent months. Households pulled back on big purchases, and apartment sales abruptly plummeted. That shock altered the fortunes of Country Garden, a real estate giant that was once put forward as a model by the government. The company is now anticipating a loss of as much as $7.6 billion in the first half of the year and says it is facing the biggest challenge to its business in its three-decade history. | 但最近几个月发生了很多变化。家庭减少了大额购买，公寓销量陡然暴跌。房地产巨头碧桂园曾经被政府列为典范，这样的冲击改变了它的命运，现在，该公司预计今年上半年亏损高达76亿美元，并表示其业务正面临着30年来最大的挑战。 |
| Country Garden has just weeks to come up with the cash to make interest payments on some of its bonds, or join its peers in default. It also has hundreds of billions of dollars in unpaid bills. | 碧桂园需要在几周内拿出现金来支付部分债券的利息，否则就会和同行一起进入违约公司的行列。它还有数千亿美元的未付账单。 |
| These developments have spooked home buyers, who were already wary. In July, new home sales at China’s 100 biggest property developers fell 33 percent from a year earlier, according to data from the China Real Estate Information Corp. Sales also fell 28 percent in June. | 这些事态发展让本来就持谨慎态度的购房者感到惊慌。中国房地产信息集团的数据显示，7月中国100家最大房地产开发商的新房销售量同比下降33%。6月销售量也下降了28%。 |
| Investors worry that policymakers are not acting quickly enough to prevent a bigger crisis. | 投资者担心政策制定者行动不够迅速，无法防止更大的危机发生。 |
| “I don’t think they have yet found the right solution to solve the problems,” said Ting Lu, chief China economist for Nomura. He and his colleagues have warned that falling home sales and defaulting developers risk a chain reaction that threatens the broader economy. | 野村证券首席中国经济学家陆挺表示：“我认为他们还没有找到解决问题的正确方案。”他和他的同事警告，房屋销售下降和开发商违约可能会引发连锁反应，威胁到更广泛的经济领域。 |
| The fears have spread to other markets. In Hong Kong, where many of China’s biggest companies are listed, confidence has plunged so drastically that stocks have fallen into a bear market, down 21 percent from their peak in January. Over the last two weeks, investors have pulled $7.5 billion out of Chinese stocks. | 这种担忧已经蔓延到其他市场。中国最大的一些公司在香港上市，那里的投资者信心急剧下降，导致股市陷入熊市，较1月的峰值下跌了21%。过去两周，投资者已从中国股市撤资75亿美元。 |
| The real estate troubles are also spreading to China’s so-called shadow banking system of financial trust companies. These institutions offer investments with higher returns than standard bank deposits and often invest in real estate projects. | 房地产问题也正在蔓延到金融信托公司，即中国所谓的影子银行体系。这些机构提供的投资回报率高于标准银行储蓄，并且通常投资于房地产项目。 |
| The latest troubles surfaced earlier this month. Two publicly traded Chinese companies warned that they had invested money with Zhongrong International Trust, which is managing about $85 billion in assets, and said that Zhongrong had failed to pay the companies what they were owed. While it was not clear that those investments were tied to real estate, Zhongrong had been a major shareholder in several property projects of developers in default, according to the South China Morning Post. Zhongrong did not respond to an email seeking comment. | 本月初，新的麻烦出现了。两家中国上市公司警告称，它们向中融国际信托进行了投资，但管理着约850亿美元资产的中融未能支付所欠款项。据《南华早报》报道，虽然尚不清楚这些投资是否与房地产相关，但中融是这些违约开发商的多个房地产项目的主要股东。中融没有回复寻求置评的电子邮件。 |
| A crowd of angry Chinese investors gathered outside the Beijing offices of Zhongrong demanding that the company “pay back the money” and calling for an explanation. It was not clear when the protest took place; videos of it were uploaded to Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok, this month. | 一群愤怒的中国投资者聚集在中融北京办公室外，要求该公司“还钱”并做出解释。抗议活动的相关视频在本月被上传到抖音，目前尚不清楚是什么时候发生的。 |
| The demonstration was reminiscent of other acts of defiance in China rooted in the housing crisis. While such occurrences are rare, there are a few recent examples. | 这次抗议让人想起中国因住房危机而发生的其他反抗行为。虽然这种情况很少见，但最近出现了几起。 |
| In February, thousands of retirees in Wuhan confronted officials to protest cuts in government-provided medical insurance for seniors. The cutbacks were a sign of the strain on local governments caused in part by the downturn in real estate that had hurt land sales, a reliable source of revenue. | 今年2月，武汉数千名退休人员与官员对峙，抗议削减政府为老年人提供的医疗保险。这些削减表明地方政府面临压力，部分原因是房地产市场低迷，损害了作为可靠收入来源的土地销售。 |
| Last year, hundreds of thousands of homeowners refused to pay mortgage loans on unfinished apartments. Some staged protest videos on social media, while collectives of homeowners tracked boycotts online. | 去年，数十万房主拒绝偿还未完工公寓的抵押贷款。有人在社交媒体上发布抗议视频，业主群体纷纷效仿，在网上发起抵制。 |
| Both protests drew notice, but the momentum petered out as the government intervened to limit discussion on social media, while adopting some steps to ease tensions. Last week, a new video outside of Zhongrong’s offices showed no demonstrations but police cars and vans were parked in and near the facility. | 这两起抗议活动都引起了人们的关注，但随着政府介入限制社交媒体上的讨论，同时采取一些措施缓解紧张局势，抗议势头逐渐减弱。上周，一段新视频显示，中融办公室外没有抗议活动，但大楼和附近都停着警车。 |
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