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| Tremors in China’s real estate market are shaking the country’s economy, as well as the world, which has come to rely on China as a reliable engine of growth. |
| 中国房地产市场的震荡正在动摇中国经济，也动摇了已经开始依赖中国作为可靠增长引擎的世界经济。 |
| Major developers are faltering as they face huge losses, struggle with mountains of debt and miss payments to lenders. A long-running building boom that propelled China’s growth has come to a halt, threatening the jobs and savings of millions of households. China’s markets have tumbled and its currency has weakened as officials take action to spur growth. |
| 大型开发商举步维艰，面临巨额损失，在堆积如山的债务中挣扎，无力偿还贷款。推动中国经济增长的长期建筑热潮已经停止，威胁到数百万家庭的就业和储蓄。随着官员采取行动刺激经济增长，中国股市暴跌，人民币贬值。 |
| Here’s what you need to know: |
| 以下是你需要了解的内容： |
| What’s going on with real estate and China’s economy? |
| 房地产和中国经济到底怎么了？ |
| For decades, China’s economy was dependent on a booming real estate sector fueled by population growth. The housing market created jobs and served as a place to store wealth for China’s growing middle class. Local governments also depended on revenue from land sales. |
| 几十年来，中国经济依赖人口增长推动的蓬勃发展的房地产业。房地产市场创造了就业机会，同时中国不断壮大的中产阶级在这里投入他们的财富。地方政府也依靠出让土地获得收入。 |
| But the country’s population isn’t growing the way it used to, and years of strict Covid-19 restrictions shook Chinese consumers. The government has also cracked down on risky practices in the industry, a combination that has left real estate developers with enormous debt and more new housing units than buyers. |
| 但中国的人口不再像以前那样增长，而且执行了数年的严格新冠限制措施改变了中国消费者。该行业的高风险行为加上政府对这些行为的打击导致房地产开发商背负巨额债务，新房数量供大于求。 |
| Home prices have slumped, denting Chinese households’ savings, and confidence, as the government tries to transition from an economy powered by state-directed investments and exports to one led by domestic consumer spending. |
| 在政府试图从国家主导的投资和出口驱动的经济转型为国内消费支出主导的经济之际，房价暴跌，削弱了中国家庭的储蓄和信心。 |
| How bad is it? |
| 有多严重？ |
| By one estimate from Gavekal Research, unpaid bills from private Chinese developers total $390 billion, a major threat looming over the economy. |
| 根据龙洲经讯的一项估计，中国民营开发商的未付账单总额达3900亿美元，这是对经济的一个重大威胁。 |
| Economists have downgraded their forecasts for China’s economic growth, many to below the government’s target of about 5 percent. |
| 经济学家们纷纷下调了对中国经济增长的预测，很多预测低于政府设定的约5%的目标。 |
| Both imports and exports have fallen in recent months, and foreign investment into the country dropped more than 80 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier. Consumer prices in China fell in July for the first time in two years, a sign that Chinese households were spending less. |
| 近几个月来，进出口双双下降，第二季度外国对华投资同比下降80%以上。7月中国消费者价格两年来首次下降，这表明中国家庭支出在减少。 |
| The Hang Seng Index of stocks listed in Hong Kong entered into a bear market on Friday, falling more than 20 percent from its high in January. |
| 香港恒生指数上周五进入熊市，较1月份高点下跌逾20%。 |
| What companies are at the center of the crisis? |
| 哪些公司处于危机的中心？ |
| Country Garden, China’s largest real estate developer, said this month that it expected to report a loss of up to $7.6 billion for the first six months of this year. The company’s share price has tanked as investors fear it could default on billions of dollars in loans. |
| 中国最大的房地产开发商碧桂园本月表示，预计今年前六个月的亏损将高达76亿美元。该公司股价暴跌，因为投资者担心它可能会出现数十亿美元的贷款违约。 |
| China Evergrande, another major real estate developer, recently filed for U.S. bankruptcy as it restructures its debt. The company defaulted on $300 billion of debt in 2021, one of the first major signs that China’s real estate industry was in trouble. |
| 另一家大型房地产开发商中国恒大最近在美国申请破产，以进行债务重组。该公司在2021年违约了3000亿美元的债务，这是中国房地产行业陷入困境的首批重大迹象之一。 |
| The sector’s troubles are also spreading to China’s financial trust companies, which offer investments with higher returns than standard bank deposits and often invest in real estate projects. |
| 房地产行业的问题也蔓延到了中国的金融信托公司，这些公司提供的投资回报率高于正常的银行存款利率，并且往往是投资于房地产项目。 |
| Zhongrong International Trust, which manages about $85 billion in assets, has recently missed payments to investors. Videos circulating on social media showed a crowd of investors protesting outside the firm’s offices in Beijing, demanding that the company pay them back. |
| 管理着约850亿美元资产的中融国际信托最近未能向投资者兑付。社交媒体上流传的视频显示，一群投资者在该公司北京办公室外抗议，要求偿还资金。 |
| What is China’s government doing about all this? |
| 面对这一切，中国政府在做什么？ |
| Chinese regulators started cracking down on reckless borrowing in 2020, which forced companies to reduce their debt levels before taking on more debt. |
| 中国的监管机构从2020年开始打击过度借贷，迫使企业在进一步举债前要先降低债务水平。 |
| That led to the trouble at heavily indebted developers like Evergrande and Country Garden. More than 50 real estate developers in China have failed to make payments in the past three years, according to Standard & Poor’s. |
| 这给恒大和碧桂园等负债累累的开发商带来了麻烦。标准普尔的数据显示，过去三年中国有超过50家房地产开发商未能还款。 |
| The government recently outlined programs aimed at spurring spending and investment, but the details have been opaque. |
| 政府最近出台了刺激支出和投资的计划，但细节仍不明确。 |
| China’s central bank on Monday cut its one-year loan rate, which is used for most corporate loans, but left its five-year rate, used to price mortgages, unchanged. Economists had expected more aggressive moves. |
| 中国央行周一下调了一年期贷款利率，大多数企业贷款基于这一利率，但用于抵押贷款定价的五年期贷款利率保持不变。经济学家此前曾预期有更激进的举措。 |
| What effect could China’s troubles have on the global economy? |
| 中国的麻烦会对全球经济产生什么影响？ |
| Over the past decade, China has been the source of more than 40 percent of global economic growth, compared with 22 percent from the United States and 9 percent from the eurozone, according to BCA Research. |
| BCA研究的数据显示，过去十年，中国对全球经济增长的贡献率超过40%，而美国和欧元区的贡献率分别为22%和9%。 |
| A decline in consumer spending in China hurts companies that do business there, like American technology firms and European luxury goods groups. A weaker Chinese economy also means less appetite for oil, minerals and other building blocks of industry. China is one of the United States’ largest trading partners, purchasing billions of dollars of American crops and machinery each year. |
| 中国消费者支出的下降损害了在华开展业务的公司，例如美国科技企业和欧洲奢侈品集团。中国经济疲软也意味着对石油、矿产和其他工业基础材料的需求减少。中国是美国最大的贸易伙伴之一，每年购买数十亿美元的美国农作物和机械。 |
| That said, the reaction from global investors has been relatively muted so far. The S&P 500 recently fell for three consecutive weeks amid the signs of distress in China’s economy, but remains higher for the year, propelled by big technology firms. Investors in the United States and Europe have also been occupied with their national central banks’ next moves on interest rates as their countries face stubborn inflation. |
| 尽管如此，迄今为止全球投资者的反应相对平静。由于中国经济出现困境，标准普尔500指数最近连续三周下跌，但在大型科技公司的推动下，今年仍保持走高。美国和欧洲面临顽固的通货膨胀，这些地方的投资者也一直关注其国家央行的下一步利率举措。 |
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