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| The ruler of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, is a key American ally who counts on the United States to defend his country. |
| 阿拉伯联合酋长国的统治者谢赫穆罕默德·本·扎耶德是美国的重要盟友，他需要依靠美国来保卫自己的国家。 |
| But he has traveled twice to Russia over the past year to meet with President Vladimir V. Putin, and in June, his country was celebrated as the guest of honor at the Russian leader’s flagship investment forum. Later this month, the Emirati and Chinese air forces plan to train together for the first time, a notable shift for an oil-rich Gulf nation that has long relied on American fighter jets, weapons and protection. |
| 但在过去一年里，他两次前往俄罗斯，与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京会面。今年6月，阿联酋作为主宾出席了俄罗斯领导人的旗舰投资论坛。本月晚些时候，阿联酋和中国空军计划首次联合演习，这对于一个长期依赖美国战斗机、武器和保护的海湾石油大国来说是一个显著的转变。 |
| These deepening relationships show how a Middle Eastern leader viewed by the U.S. government as an important partner is increasingly striking out on his own path. American officials have had limited success in persuading Sheikh Mohammed to align with U.S. foreign policy — particularly when it comes to limiting Chinese military ties and isolating Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. |
| 这些不断加深的关系表明，这位被美国政府视为重要合作伙伴的中东领导人正越来越多地走自己的路。美国官员试图说服谢赫穆罕默德与美国外交政策保持一致，但收效甚微——尤其是在限制与中国的军事关系以及在入侵乌克兰后孤立俄罗斯方面。 |
| Instead, the Emirates has thrived on inflows of Russian money, oil and gold, fueling a feeding frenzy in real estate in the glittering metropolis of Dubai. The growing ties with both American rivals and expanding economies like India are all in preparation for a world that may someday be no longer dominated by the United States. |
| 阿联酋反过来却因俄罗斯资金、石油和黄金的流入而蓬勃发展，在闪闪发光的大都市迪拜，这助长了房地产市场的狂热。阿联酋与美国的对手以及印度等不断扩张的经济体之间发展日益密切的关系，是为了迎接一个有朝一日可能不再由美国主宰的世界。 |
| “What we’re seeing in the international order is not necessarily a multipolar world, but we’re seeing a more fluid world where things are changing,” Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic adviser to Sheikh Mohammed, told The New York Times recently. In a lecture in Arabic last year, he was much blunter, declaring that Western hegemony was “in its final days.” |
| “我们在国际秩序中看到的不一定是一个多极世界，但我们看到的是一个更不稳定的世界，事情正在发生变化，”谢赫穆罕默德的外交顾问安瓦尔·加尔加什前不久接受《纽约时报》采访时说。在去年的一次阿拉伯语演讲中，他更加直言不讳，宣称西方霸权“已经步入尾声”。 |
| Over the past decade, Emirati leaders have grown concerned about Washington’s long-term commitment to the Middle East, which still hosts tens of thousands of American military personnel. They fear a decline in American interest in the region — and the military defense that comes with it — and argue that Washington has not done enough to deter threats from Iran. |
| 在过去的十年里，阿联酋领导人越来越对华盛顿对中东的长期承诺感到担忧，中东仍然驻扎着数万名美国军事人员。他们担心美国对该地区的兴趣下降，以及随之而来的军事防御能力下降，并认为华盛顿在遏制来自伊朗的威胁方面做得不够。 |
| But at the same time, they continue to seek greater protection from the United States. |
| 但与此同时，他们继续寻求美国的更大保护。 |
| “I think it’s a hard moment,” Dana Stroul, deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, told The New York Times’s editorial board in June when asked about the Emirati misgivings. The United States is still present in the region, but is “asking our partners to step up and do more, and that is a shift,” she added. |
| “我认为这是一个艰难的时刻，”6月，当被问及阿联酋的疑虑时，负责中东事务的国防部副助理部长达娜·斯特劳尔对时报社论编委会说。她还说，美国在该地区仍有存在，但“需要我们的伙伴站出来，出更多力，这是一种转变”。 |
| A federation of seven sheikhdoms perched on the Persian Gulf, the Emirates is roughly the size of South Carolina. Though small, it is one of the world’s leading oil exporters, and its sovereign wealth funds control an estimated $1.5 trillion in assets — more than the market capitalization of Amazon. |
| 阿联酋是波斯湾的一个由七个酋长国组成的联邦，面积与南卡罗来纳州大致相当。虽然很小，阿联酋却是世界上主要的石油出口国之一，其主权财富基金控制着大约1.5万亿美元的资产——超过亚马逊的市值。 |
| As its authoritarian rulers test the boundaries of their relationship with Washington, they are relying on the outsize international influence that they have built through wealth. |
| 在其威权主义统治者试探与华盛顿关系的边界时，他们依靠的是通过财富建立起来的巨大国际影响力。 |
| Emirati rulers wrote the playbook that other Gulf governments — notably Saudi Arabia — are borrowing from as they try to diversify their economies away from dependence on oil and expand their sway overseas, including through sports. |
| 其他海湾国家（尤其是沙特阿拉伯）都在借鉴阿联酋统治者的策略，试图实现经济多元化，减少对石油的依赖，并扩大在海外的影响力（包括通过体育）。 |
| The Emirates moved earlier than its neighbors to pursue a more independent foreign policy and deal more assertively with the United States — a strategy that Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has since adopted. |
| 阿联酋比其邻国更早采取行动，追求更独立的外交政策，并以更强硬的方式与美国打交道——沙特阿拉伯事实上的统治者穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼王储后来也采取了这一战略。 |
| It was a shift that developed partly out of a sense of vulnerability. |
| 这种转变在一定程度上源于一种危机感。 |
| Until they united in the 1970s, the disparate territories that formed the Emirates had been British protectorates with a combined population of a few hundred thousand people. The new state was sandwiched between larger neighbors — Iran and Saudi Arabia — and some early observers expected it to be subsumed by them. |
| 在20世纪70年代合并之前，组成阿联酋的各地区一直是英国的受保护领地，总人口只有几十万。这个新国家被夹在伊朗和沙特阿拉伯这两个更大的邻国之间，早期一些观察人士预计它将被两个邻国吞并。 |
| Instead, the Emirates turned into a regional power center. Today, Dubai is home to one of the world’s busiest airports, the world’s tallest skyscraper and a port company that operates facilities far beyond the Middle East. |
| 然而，阿联酋最终成了一个地区权力中心。如今，迪拜拥有世界上最繁忙的机场之一，世界上最高的摩天大楼，以及一家业务远及中东以外的广阔领域的港务公司。 |
| Over the past few years, the Emirati leaders have seized opportunities presented by various calamities — including the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine — to cement their nation’s status as a triumphant entrepôt, where British multimillionaires mingle with Russian oligarchs and Indian tycoons. |
| 在过去的几年里，阿联酋领导人抓住了各种灾难——包括新冠病毒大流行和乌克兰战争——带来的机会，巩固了本国作为一个成功的转口贸易中心的地位，英国千万富翁与俄罗斯寡头和印度大亨们在这里打成一片。 |
| “The whole world knows us now,” Mohammed Al Gergawi, an Emirati government minister, said in a rare appearance on a Saudi podcast last year. “They know our importance, and they know our influence on the world.” |
| “现在全世界都知道我们了，”阿联酋政府部长穆罕默德·阿里·格加维去年罕见地在沙特的一个播客上发言。“他们知道我们的重要性，也知道我们对世界的影响。” |
| The country’s bolder foreign policy began to emerge a decade ago, when the Arab Spring revolutions toppled regional strongmen around the same time that President Barack Obama declared a pivot to Asia. As the uprisings rearranged the Middle East’s power structure, the Emirates sent soldiers and weapons into the multiple regional wars that ensued. |
| 十年前，“阿拉伯之春”革命推翻了该地区的铁腕人物，与此同时，奥巴马总统宣布将重心转向亚洲。随着起义带来中东权力结构的重组，阿联酋向由此而起的多场地区战争输送了士兵和武器。 |
| In 2014, the country launched airstrikes in Libya without notifying the United States, American officials said at the time. And in 2015, after an Iran-backed militia seized control of Yemen’s capital, Emirati forces joined a Saudi-led military coalition to intervene. That war is still continuing, and it has plunged Yemen into one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. |
| 美国官员当时表示，2014年，阿联酋在没有通知美国的情况下发动了对利比亚的空袭。2015年，在伊朗支持的民兵控制了也门首都之后，阿联酋军队加入了沙特领导的军事联盟进行干预。这场战争今天仍在继续，也门陷入了世界上最严重的人道主义危机之一。 |
| In 2019, the Emirates declared a withdrawal of their forces in Yemen. That marked the beginning of a period in which the government shifted its rhetoric — if not always its actions — to a softer, economically driven diplomacy and preached peacemaking across a region exhausted by conflict. |
| 2019年，阿联酋宣布从也门撤军。这标志着一个新时期的开始：阿联酋政府在口头上（未必总是见诸行动）转向更温和的、以经济为驱动的外交，在一个因冲突而精疲力尽的地区倡导建立和平。 |
| The country emphasized de-escalating tensions, particularly with Iran — an approach that Saudi Arabia also embraced when it restored diplomatic relations with Tehran in a deal brokered by China this year. |
| 阿联酋强调缓和紧张局势，尤其是与伊朗的紧张关系。今年，在中国的斡旋下，沙特与德黑兰恢复外交关系，也体现了这种思维。 |
| Emirati frustrations with the United States have continued to simmer, though. |
| 不过，阿联酋对美国的不满情绪仍在持续发酵。 |
| Sheikh Mohammed has not visited the United States since 2017. A deal to buy American F-35 fighter jets stalled in 2021, and the Emirates has sealed a number of agreements to obtain weaponry from other countries since then, including light attack aircraft from China. |
| 谢赫穆罕默德自2017年以来就没有访问过美国。购买美国F-35战斗机的交易在2021年陷入僵局，此后阿联酋签署了一系列从其他国家获得武器装备的协议，包括从中国购买轻型攻击机。 |
| “You really want a firm commitment to your security in a very difficult area,” said Mr. Gargash, the adviser to Sheikh Mohammed, calling this an “existential issue.” |
| 谢赫穆罕默德的顾问加尔贾什说：“在一个困难重重的地区，你会非常希望得到对你的安全的坚定承诺。”他称这是一个“生死攸关的问题”。 |
| The Emirates’ status as a hub for business and tourism hinges on its relative safety in a volatile region. |
| 阿联酋作为商业和旅游中心的地位取决于它在一个动荡地区的相对安全。 |
| But in January 2022, the capital, Abu Dhabi, came under drone and missile attacks claimed by the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen. One attack was thwarted with U.S. help — the Americans deployed Patriot missile defenses from an air base. But another attack killed three people, and Emirati officials argued that the American response had been insufficient, with reassurance taking too long. |
| 但在2022年1月，首都阿布扎比遭到无人机和导弹袭击，伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装声称对此负责。其中一次袭击在美国的帮助下被挫败——美国人从一个空军基地启动了爱国者导弹防御系统。但另一起袭击造成三人死亡，阿联酋官员认为美国没有做出充分的应对，迟迟不肯给出保证。 |
| “Can the American system actually provide you with what you want?” Mr. Gargash said, signaling that he foresees a longer-term problem. “It’s not about Biden. It’s not about Trump. It’s not about whoever comes later.” |
| “美国的系统真能提供你想要的东西吗？”加尔贾什说道，他表示这是在未雨绸缪。“这与拜登无关。与特朗普无关。与接下来谁当美国总统都无关。” |
| At a conference in the Gulf nation of Bahrain in November, Brett McGurk, a senior White House official handling Middle East policy, said he heard constant concerns about the American commitment to the region. |
| 去年11月在海湾国家巴林举行的一次会议上，负责中东政策的白宫高级官员布雷特·麦格克说，他不断听到人们对美国在该地区的承诺表示担忧。 |
| “We unquestionably are here to stay,” he said. |
| “毫无疑问，我们会留在这里，”他说。 |
| Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year brought these tensions to the forefront. |
| 俄罗斯去年对乌克兰的入侵将这些紧张关系推向风口浪尖。 |
| The Emirates, along with many other countries, has made clear that it will not be forced to take sides. And Emirati officials argue they must keep dialogue open with Russia to pursue peace efforts and mediation. |
| 阿联酋和其他许多国家都已明确表示，不会选边站队。阿联酋官员认为，他们必须与俄罗斯保持对话，以寻求和平与调解。 |
| When the Emirates abstained from a U.N. Security Council vote condemning Russia shortly after it invaded Ukraine, critics “came up with this phrase of ‘fence-sitting,’” said Mohammed Baharoon, head of B’huth, a Dubai research center. |
| 迪拜研究机构B’huth的负责人穆罕默德·巴哈龙说，在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后不久，阿联酋在联合国安理会谴责俄罗斯的投票中弃权，批评人士“采用了‘骑墙’的说法”。 |
| “It presumes there is a good side and a bad side — you have to choose one, our way or the highway,” he said. |
| “它假定有好的一面和坏的一面——你必须选择一个，要不跟我们走，要不就分道扬镳，”他说。 |
| Nevertheless, the top priority of Emirati leaders is still “to ensure that the U.S. has a greater stake in the region, not a lesser stake,” said Dina Esfandiary, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group for the Middle East and North Africa. |
| 尽管如此，阿联酋领导人的首要任务仍然是“确保美国增加而不是减少与该地区的利益捆绑”，中东北非国际危机组织的高级顾问迪娜·埃斯凡迪里表示。 |
| Indeed, some of the Emirati foreign-policy shifts have been firmly in line with the interests of the White House. The Emirates was the Gulf’s earliest proponent of normalizing relations with Israel, which it did in 2020 in a deal brokered by Donald J. Trump. |
| 事实上，阿联酋外交政策的部分转变与白宫的利益是一致的。阿联酋是海湾地区最早支持与以色列关系正常化的国家，在特朗普的斡旋下，它在2020年与以色列正式建立外交关系。 |
| At the same time, a gradual decline in American soft power is palpable across the Middle East, local scholars and businesspeople say. |
| 与此同时，当地的学者和商界人士表示，在整个中东地区，美国软实力的逐渐衰落是显而易见的。 |
| A recent survey sponsored by a Dubai-based public relations firm asked Arab youth which country had the most influence over their region. About a third of respondents said it was still the United States. But the second-most-common answer was not China or Russia — it was the Emirates. |
| 迪拜一家公关公司最近做了一项调查，询问阿拉伯年轻人哪个国家对他们的地区影响最大。约三分之一的受访者表示，仍然是美国。但第二个最常见的答案不是中国或俄罗斯，而是阿联酋。 |
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