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中国出口连续三个月下降,经济复苏仍疲软
China’s Exports Fall Again, Imperiling Its Economic Recovery

来源:纽约时报    2023-08-09 10:22



        The News        新闻
        China’s trade numbers dropped in July, according to government data released Tuesday, a sign that the country’s economic rebound was lagging despite efforts by officials in Beijing to revive growth.        根据周二公布的政府数据,中国7月的贸易数据下降,这表明尽管北京官员努力重振增长,但该国的经济反弹仍然滞后。
        Exports from China, which has the world’s second-largest economy after that of the United States, have now declined for three months in a row while imports have fallen for five consecutive months. The numbers reflect declining foreign demand for Chinese-made products, falling domestic demand, a real estate crisis and geopolitical tensions, including the war in Ukraine.        作为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体,中国的出口已连续三个月下降,进口也连续五个月下降。这些数字反映了国外对中国制造产品的需求下降、国内需求下降、房地产危机和地缘政治紧张局势,包括乌克兰战争。
        Exports will probably continue to fall for the rest of the year, Nomura economists wrote in a note to investors.        野村证券的经济学家在给投资者的一份报告中写道,在今年余下的时间里,出口可能会继续下降。
        “These readings point to worsening growth prospects,” they said. “A worsening export contraction means weaker production, while rapidly deteriorating imports reflects weaker demand within China.”        “这些数据表明增长前景正在恶化,”他们表示。“出口收缩恶化意味着生产疲软,而进口迅速恶化则反映出中国国内需求疲软。”
        The Numbers        数据
        China’s exports dropped 14.5 percent in July from the same point last year, the biggest decline since February 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic sent the world into lockdown and tangled global supply chains. Imports fell 12.3 percent in the same period.        7月中国出口较去年同期下降14.5%,这是自2020年2月以来的最大降幅,当时新冠病毒大流行导致世界陷入封锁,全球供应链混乱。同期进口下降12.3%。
        In the first seven months of the year, exports to the United States declined 18.6 percent from a year earlier, while shipments to the European Union fell 5 percent. Exports to Russia, which has been hit with Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, increased more than 70 percent.        今年前7个月,对美国的出口同比下降18.6%,对欧盟的出口下降5%。俄罗斯因入侵乌克兰而受到西方制裁,中国对俄出口增长了70%以上。
        Mexico and Canada surpassed China this year as the United States’ top trading partners, as American companies seek to bring their supply chains closer to home. Foreign investment in China dropped more than 80 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to Chinese government data released Friday.        由于美国公司寻求转移供应链至靠近本国的地方,墨西哥和加拿大今年超过中国成为美国最大的贸易伙伴。中国政府周五公布的数据显示,二季度中国的外国投资同比下降了80%以上。
        Why It Matters        为什么这很重要
        As developed countries like the United States tackle inflation by cooling demand, consumers are shifting spending from goods to services, Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS, said in a note to investors.        瑞银首席经济学家保罗·多诺万在给投资者的一份报告中表示,随着美国等发达国家通过冷却需求来应对通胀,消费者正在将支出从商品转向服务。
        “There has been general weakness in demand for China’s exports,” he said.        “中国出口需求普遍疲软,”他表示。
        Officials in Beijing have been trying to foster a rebound from an economic slump after nearly three years of pandemic restrictions. After China ended its lockdowns last December, many expected the economy to bounce back, but recovery has been halting.        经过近三年的大流行限制措施后,北京官员一直在努力促进经济从衰退中反弹。去年12月中国结束封锁后,许多人预计经济将会反弹,但复苏一直停滞不前。
        A real estate crisis and weak spending by consumers have put pressure on Beijing to increase exports to help stabilize the economy. But the trade numbers released on Tuesday suggest that weak demand may exacerbate a global slowdown.        房地产危机和消费者支出疲软给北京带来了增加出口以稳定经济的压力。但周二公布的贸易数据表明,需求疲软可能会加剧全球经济放缓。
                
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