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| Remember China Evergrande, that Chinese real estate behemoth whose mountain of debt sent global markets spiraling in 2021? Its collapse signaled the start of a crisis for China’s housing market, where sales of apartments ground to a halt and developers big and small found themselves unable to pay their bills. |
| 还记得中国房地产巨头中国恒大吗？它的巨额债务导致2021年全球市场陷入螺旋式下降。恒大爆雷标志着中国房地产市场危机的开始，公寓销售陷入停滞，大大小小的开发商无力支付账单。 |
| Now, financial troubles at Country Garden, another real estate giant, are raising fresh concerns. They are also a flashing warning sign about China’s economy. |
| 现在，另一家房地产巨头碧桂园的财务问题引发了新的担忧。这也是中国经济出了问题的警告信号。 |
| Country Garden, the country’s biggest developer by sales, has been pummeled in the markets twice in the past week. Investors are panicked by two events: On Aug. 1, the company scrapped a plan to inject cash into the business, something it needs. This week, it missed two interest payments on bonds. The bond payments, which are owed in U.S. dollars, are relatively small in value, but by missing them, the company put itself at risk of default. |
| 按销售额计算，碧桂园是中国最大的开发商，它在过去一周遭遇了两次市场重挫。投资者对两件事感到恐慌：8月1日，该公司取消了向业务注资的计划，而注资正是它所需要的。本周，它错过了两笔债券利息支付。这些债券价值相对较小，以美元支付，但如果逾期，该公司就会面临违约风险。 |
| Country Garden’s market value has been more than halved since the start of the year. Traders were swapping some of its bonds for as little as 10 cents on the dollar this week, a sign of doubt that they expected to be paid back in full. |
| 碧桂园的市值自年初以来已缩水一半以上。本周，交易员将部分债券以每1美元面值低于10美分的价格出售，这表明他们对碧桂园能否全额支付存有疑虑。 |
| Investors are alarmed because Country Garden had largely benefited from measures to bolster the real estate market last year that included more financial support. For some time, the Chinese authorities designated it as a model developer. This made lending to the company more palatable, when many other Chinese developers were in trouble. |
| 投资者感到震惊，因为碧桂园在很大程度上受益于去年提振房地产市场措施，其中包括更多的财政支持。有段时间，中国当局曾将其誉为模范开发商。在许多中国开发商陷入困境时，这令贷款方更愿意借钱给该公司。 |
| But recent events have led Country Garden to a point of distress that was unthinkable a year ago, when it was making nearly $50 billion in sales. The worry now is that even as Beijing has pledged more support to the real estate market, the measures may not be enough. |
| 一年前，碧桂园的销售额接近500亿美元，但最近发生的事件让碧桂园陷入了彼时难以想象的困境。现在的担忧是，尽管北京承诺为房地产市场提供更多支持，但这些措施可能还不够。 |
| Much of the squeeze on Country Garden’s financial position has come from a drop in sales of its apartments. Fewer people in China are interested in buying homes. The company issued a profit warning in July, saying it most likely had lost money in the first half of this year, in part because of a “downward trend of real estate sales.” |
| 碧桂园财务状况受压，很大程度上是因为公寓销量的下降。中国有兴趣买房的人越来越少。该公司7月发布盈利预警，称今年上半年很可能出现亏损，部分原因是“房地产销售呈下降趋势”。 |
| Country Garden is facing a cash crisis when the real estate sector is in the dumps and China’s leaders are trying to rev it up. There had been some optimism in July when top government decision makers pledged policies to help. Much of the initiative is in the country’s biggest cities, like Shenzhen and Shanghai, and the measures are unlikely to benefit Country Garden, which operates more in small cities. |
| 碧桂园面临现金危机之际，整个房地产行业正陷入低迷，中国领导人试图提振该行业。7月，政府最高决策者承诺采取政策提供帮助，曾让人感到一些乐观情绪。这些举措大部分是针对深圳、上海这样的大城市，不太可能使更多在小城市开展业务的碧桂园受益。 |
| The two bond payments that Country Garden missed this week do not amount to a lot of money for the company, which also has a 30-day grace period. But a default could scare those who have lent it money in the past. The company did not respond to a request for comment. |
| 碧桂园本周错过的两笔债券支付对该公司来说并不算多，该公司还有30天的宽限期。但违约可能会让那些过去借钱给它的人感到惊慌。该公司没有回应置评请求。 |
| As Sandra Chow, co-head of Asia-Pacific Research at CreditSights, put it: “The developer’s struggle to address even a modest coupon payment underscores the extent of its cash crunch.” |
| 正如CreditSights亚太研究联席主管周珊卓所言：“开发商连支付小额的息票付款都很困难，这凸显了其现金紧张的程度。” |
| More broadly, Country Garden’s potential default is another ominous sign for China’s economic outlook as its leaders look to reboot the economy after three years of stringent Covid prevention measures that suppressed activity. Home sales were down in the first half of the year, a decline that accelerated last month. One in five young Chinese is out of work. People are not spending money, leading companies to slash prices. In smaller cities, where Country Garden continues to build its sprawling residential complexes, authorities are facing an oversupply of housing and a steady decline of population. |
| 更广泛来说，因严格的疫情防控措施导致经济活动受到抑制三年后，中国领导人希望重启经济，而碧桂园的潜在违约是中国经济前景的又一个不祥之兆。上半年房屋销售下降，上个月下降速度加快。五分之一的中国年轻人找不到工作。人们不消费，导致企业大幅降价。碧桂园在小城市继续建设规模庞大的住宅区，而当局正面临着住房供应过剩和人口稳步下降的问题。 |
| Nervous investors will make Country Garden’s financial pressures more pronounced. The company has fared worse than the broader market and developers that concentrate in bigger cities, where the real estate slowdown has not been as acute. Country Garden’s sales under contract plunged nearly a third over the first six months of the year. |
| 紧张的投资者将使碧桂园的财务压力更加明显。该公司的表现比大盘和集中在大城市的开发商更糟糕，因为大城市的房地产放缓程度没有那么严重。今年前六个月，碧桂园的合同销售额下降了近三分之一。 |
| Even if Country Garden manages to make the interest payments on these bonds in the coming weeks, it is not out of the woods. It has bond payments due every month for the rest of the year, according to Moody’s, and some $2.4 billion of bonds owed to investors in China and $2 billion of bonds owed to foreign investors by the end of 2024. |
| 即使碧桂园能够在未来几周内支付这些债券的利息，它也还没有摆脱困境。评级机构穆迪表示，今年剩余时间里，该公司每月都有债券偿还，到2024年底，该公司欠中国投资者的债券约为24亿美元，欠外国投资者的债券约为20亿美元。 |
| The prognosis is not great. Investors fear contagion from Country Garden’s deepening troubles. Shellshocked creditors who have continued to lend to developers might think twice before giving them more money. Home buyers may stay away from a company on the precipice of collapse. They’ve seen this movie before. |
| 前景不容乐观。投资者担心碧桂园日益严重的问题会蔓延开来。继续向开发商提供贷款的债权人可能会在提供更多资金之前三思而后行。购房者可能会远离濒临倒闭的公司。他们早已见过类似的一幕。 |
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