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| The world’s two largest economies — China and the United States — are moving in sharply different directions. Both are a risk to financial markets. | 世界上最大的两个经济体——中国和美国——正朝着截然不同的方向发展。两者都对金融市场构成风险。 |
| Investors are wary of China’s weakening growth, deflation and precarious real estate market, but they have largely shrugged off these concerns so far. Investors are, however, flinching at signs that the U.S. economy is unexpectedly strong, which could prompt a stronger response by the Federal Reserve as it tries to rein in inflation. | 投资者对中国增长疲软、通货紧缩和不稳定的房地产市场存有疑虑，但到目前为止基本上还是不为所动。然而，投资者却被美国经济出人意料的强劲迹象吓得驻足不前，可能促使美联储在试图控制通胀时采取更强硬的应对措施。 |
| The S&P 500 stumbled on Tuesday, falling 1.2 percent and extending the decline recorded this month to more than 3 percent. That pullback put a small dent in the rally for the benchmark stock index since the start of the year, which has still gained about 16 percent over that time. | 标准普尔500指数周二下跌1.2%，使本月跌幅超过3%。这次下跌对基准股指自年初以来的涨势造成了小幅削弱，该指数在此期间仍有16%的上涨。 |
| The move on Tuesday came amid several signs of weakness in China. The country lowered some interest rates to try and prop up its economy, which has been under pressure from strict pandemic restrictions and then a weak recovery after lockdowns were lifted, as well as a teetering housing market causing considerable worry. | 在周二美国股市波动之时，中国正显出种种疲软迹象。该国降低了一些利率，试图支撑其经济，此前一直承受着严格防疫措施的压力的经济，在解除封锁后复苏乏力，摇摇欲坠的房地产市场引起了相当大的担忧。 |
| Also on Tuesday, the Chinese government said it would stop publishing data on youth unemployment, which was expected to set another record high, raising concerns about how the tightening control of information was making it harder to invest and do business in China, a major U.S. trading partner. | 同样在周二，中国政府表示将停止发布青年失业率数据，预计该数据将再创历史新高，这引发了人们担忧信息控制的收紧将加大在中国——美国主要的贸易伙伴——投资和做生意的难度。 |
| Janet Yellen, the Treasury secretary, warned on Monday that China’s slowing economy was a “risk factor” for the United States. But the country’s woes hadn’t altered Ms. Yellen’s upbeat outlook for the U.S. economy, she added, despite the potential spillover effects. | 美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦周一警告称，中国经济放缓对美国来说是一个“风险因素”。但耶伦补充说，尽管可能存在外溢效应，但中国的困境并没有改变她对美国经济的乐观前景。 |
| Some investors echoed Ms. Yellen’s sentiment, saying that the slump in stock prices on Tuesday morning stemmed more from fresh data showing the resilience of the U.S. economy, raising fears that the Fed may take more drastic action on interest rates to slow it down and rein in inflation. | 一些投资者赞同耶伦的观点，称周二早间美股暴跌更多源于新的数据显示美国经济的回弹性，引发人们担心美联储可能会采取更严厉的利率措施以减缓下跌并遏制通货膨胀。 |
| Daniel Morris, chief market strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, called it “pretty amazing” that “the second-biggest economy in the world is having a lot of problems and that I don’t think global markets are paying much attention.” | 法国巴黎银行资产管理公司首席市场策略师丹尼尔·莫里斯表示，“世界第二大经济体遇到了很多问题，而且我认为全球市场并没有对此给予太多关注”，这“非常令人惊讶”。 |
| U.S. retail sales in July rose faster than economists had expected, according to data released on Tuesday, rising 3.2 percent from a year earlier. “This robust increase won’t comfort Fed officials and keeps the risk of tighter monetary policy very much on the table,” Oren Klachkin, the lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a research note. Minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting are set to be released on Wednesday, giving more insight into policymakers’ thinking. | 周二公布的数据显示，美国7月零售额增长速度快于经济学家预期，同比增长3.2%。牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家奥伦·克拉奇金在一份研究报告中写道：“这种强劲的增长不会让美联储官员感到安心，而且货币政策收紧的风险仍然摆在桌面上。”美联储最新会议纪要将于周三发布，届时可以更深入地了解政策制定者的想法。 |
| The retail sales data helped push Treasury bond yields higher. The 10-year yield, which underpins everything from mortgage rates to how companies are valued, touched a high for the year on Tuesday. | 零售额数据推动国债收益率走高。10年期国债收益率周二触及年内新高，该收益率决定了从抵押贷款利率到公司估值等方方面面的利率。 |
| In Britain, which is also struggling with inflation, wage growth was higher than forecast, spooking investors. | 在同样受通胀困扰的英国，工资增长高于预期，令投资者感到恐慌。 |
| The concerns are that interest rates may need to rise further, and remain at lofty levels for longer, if growth remains strong and inflation moderates only gradually. | 人们担心，如果经济增长保持强劲，而通胀只是逐渐放缓，那么利率可能需要进一步上升，并在更长时间内保持在高位。 |
| Mortgage rates in the United States are near their highest levels in more than two decades, amplifying fears over homeowners’ and commercial property owners’ ability to refinance their loans. Some companies are also struggling to keep up with higher interest payments on their debt. | 美国的抵押贷款利率接近20多年来的最高水平，加剧了人们对房主和商业地产所有者贷款再融资能力的担忧。一些公司也难以跟上更高的债务利息付款。 |
| If high interest rates help tip the U.S. economy into recession, China’s weakness could compound the stress. | 如果高利率导致美国经济陷入衰退，那么中国的疲软可能会加剧压力。 |
| Already, weakness in China’s economy has helped push up the value of the dollar, which hurts emerging economies that rely on dollar-denominated imports like oil and food, and reduces the value of overseas profits for U.S. companies. | 中国经济的疲软已经推高了美元的价值，这损害了依赖石油和食品等以美元计价的进口产品的新兴经济体，降低了美国公司的海外利润价值。 |
| “If the dollar gets too strong while the global economy is on a weaker foot, the U.S. won’t be immune to the backdraft,” said George Goncalves, global macro strategist at MUFG Securities. | 三菱日联证券全球宏观策略师乔治·贡萨尔维斯表示：“如果美元在全球经济疲软的情况下变得过于强势，美国将无法在逆流中幸免。” |
| Mr. Goncalves warned that the full effect of the Fed’s interest rate increases to date, rising from near zero last year to above 5 percent, have yet to flow through the economy, and that could mean there are more weaknesses to come. | 贡萨尔维斯警告称，迄今为止，美联储的加息举措将去年接近零的利率升至5%以上，其全部影响尚未体现在经济中，这可能意味着未来还会出现更多疲软。 |
| Some analysts urged caution about reading too much into recent market moves. August is often a choppy trading month, when many traders are on vacation and markets can swing sharply because of thinner trading volumes. Over the past week, there have been signs of investors increasing hedging positions that guard against a sudden fall in the stock market. | 一些分析师敦促不要过度解读最近的市场走势。8月通常是一个交易波动较大的月份，许多交易者都在休假，市场可能会因交易量减少而大幅波动。过去一周，有迹象表明投资者增加了对冲头寸，以防范股市突然下跌。 |
| “August is often a perplexing month in the market,” Mr. Goncalves said. “It’s not quite crisis mode, but something is up.” | “在股市里，8月通常是令人困惑的月份，”贡萨尔维斯说。“危机模式还不至于，不过是有些不妙。” |
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