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| The indictment of former President Donald J. Trump on charges of conspiring to overthrow the 2020 election ensures that a federal jury will determine whether he is held accountable for his elaborate, drawn-out and unprecedented attempt to negate a vote of the American people and cling to power. |
| 前总统特朗普被起诉串谋推翻2020年大选结果，这确保了将由联邦陪审团决定他是否要为自己的行为负责——为使美国人民的投票无效，从而继续掌权，特朗普2020年大选后的行动可谓精心策划、年深日久、前所未有。 |
| But it is tens of millions of voters who may deliver the ultimate verdict. |
| 但最终的裁决也许将由几千万选民做出。 |
| For months now, as prosecutors pursued criminal charges against him in multiple jurisdictions, Mr. Trump has intertwined his legal defenses with his electoral arguments. He has called on Republicans to rally behind him to send a message to prosecutors. He has made clear that if he recaptures the White House, he will use his powers to ensure his personal freedom by shutting down prosecutions still underway. |
| 几个月来，随着检察官们在多个司法管辖区对他提起刑事诉讼，特朗普将他的法律辩护与参选论点缠绕在一起。他呼吁共和党人团结在自己周围，向检察官们传送信息。他明确表示，如果重新入主白宫，他将使用手中的权力，终止仍在进行的诉讼，来确保他的人身自由。 |
| In effect, he is both running for president and trying to outrun the law enforcement officials seeking to convict him. |
| 实际上，他既是在竞选总统，也是在试图从寻求给他定罪的执法人员手中逃脱。 |
| That dynamic has transformed the stakes of this election in ways that may not always be clear. Behind the debates over inflation, “wokeness” and the border, the 2024 election is at its core about the fundamental tenets of American democracy: the peaceful transfer of power, the independence of the nation’s justice system, the meaning of political free speech and the principle that no one is above the law. |
| 这种态势以一种可能并不总是清晰的方式改变了这次大选的利害关系。在对通货膨胀、“觉醒”、边境等问题的争论背后，2024年大选的核心问题将是美国民主的基本原则：权力的和平移交、国家司法系统的独立、政治言论自由，以及任何人都不能凌驾于法律之上的原则。 |
| Now, the voters become the jury. |
| 现在，所有的选民都是陪审团。 |
| Mr. Trump has always understood this. When he ran for president the first time, he channeled the economic, racial and social resentments of his voters. But as his legal peril has grown, he has focused on his own grievances and projected them onto his supporters. |
| 特朗普一直明白这点。他第一次竞选总统时，就刻意引导了选民对经济、种族和社会问题的不满。但随着他的法律麻烦越来越多，他开始专注自己的抱怨，并将其投射到他的支持者身上。 |
| “If these illegal persecutions succeed, if they’re allowed to set fire to the law, then it will not stop with me. Their grip will close even tighter around YOU,” Mr. Trump wrote to supporters on Tuesday night. “It’s not just my freedom on the line, but yours as well — and I will NEVER let them take it from you.” |
| “如果这些非法迫害得逞，如果让他们将法律付之一炬的话，这种事情不会止于我。他们将更紧密地控制你们，”特朗普在周二晚写给支持者们的帖子中说。“这不仅关系到我的自由，也关系到你们的自由——我永远不会让他们夺走你们的自由。” |
| Mr. Trump’s arguments have so far been effective in his pursuit of his party’s nomination. After two previous indictments — over hush-money payments to a porn star and purloined classified documents — Republican voters rallied behind the former president with an outpouring of support and cash. |
| 到目前为止，特朗普这些观点在他争取获得党内提名的过程中一直卓有成效。这之前，他已两次被起诉，一次是涉嫌向成人片女星支付“封口费”，另一次是涉嫌偷窃机密文件，每次被起诉后，都有大量共和党选民团结在这名前总统周围，对他表示支持，为他捐钱。 |
| A New York Times/Siena College poll released this week found that Mr. Trump has a commanding lead over all his Republican rivals combined, leading Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida by a two-to-one margin in a theoretical head-to-head matchup. Mr. Trump, even as America’s best-known criminal defendant, is in a dead heat with Mr. Biden among general election voters, the poll found. |
| 《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院本周发布的一项民意调查发现，特朗普的支持率遥遥领先于他所有共和党竞选对手的总和，在设想的两人交锋中，特朗普以2:1的优势领先佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯。这次民意调查还发现，尽管特朗普是美国最有名的刑事案被告，但他在大选选民中的支持率与拜登不相上下。 |
| About 17 percent of voters who said they preferred him over Mr. Biden supported Mr. Trump despite believing that he had committed serious federal crimes or that he had threatened democracy after the 2020 election. |
| 接受民意调查的选民中有约17%表示，与拜登相比，他们更喜欢特朗普，尽管他们认为特朗普犯下了违反联邦法律的严重罪行，或威胁到美国的民主制度。 |
| The prevailing Republican view is that the charges against Mr. Trump are a political vendetta. |
| 共和党人的普遍看法是，对特朗普的指控是政治迫害。 |
| Republicans have spent two years rewriting the narrative of the Capitol riots on Jan. 6, reimagining the violent attempt to disrupt the Electoral College vote count as a freedom fight against a Washington “deep state.” The result is that in many quarters of the Republican Party, Mr. Trump is more trusted than the prosecutors, special counsels and judges handling the cases against him. |
| 共和党人在改写2021年1月6日冲击国会事件的叙事上已花了两年时间，将破坏选举团计票的暴力企图重新想象为抵抗华盛顿“深层政府”的自由斗争。结果是，在许多共和党群体中，特朗普比那些处理他案件的检察官、特别检察官和法官更受信任。 |
| “Even those who were fence sitting or window shopping, many of them are of the belief that the justice system under President Biden is simply out to get the former president,” said Jimmy Centers, a former aide to former Gov. Terry Branstad of Iowa, a Republican who later served as Mr. Trump’s ambassador to China. “It has only strengthened his support in Iowa, to the point at which his floor is much more solid than what it was earlier this spring.” |
| “即使在保持中立或仍在观望的人中，也有许多人认为，拜登总统手下的司法部门只想加害这名前总统。这只会加强他在艾奥瓦州的支持率，让他的支持率与今年春天早些时候相比变得更加稳固。”曾为共和党人、艾奥瓦州前州长特里·布兰斯塔德担任助手的吉米·森特斯说。布兰斯塔德卸任州长后曾任特朗普的驻华大使。 |
| Whether Republicans continue to stand by Mr. Trump, as they have for months, remains to be seen in the wake of Tuesday’s indictment. |
| 周二的起诉书公布后，共和党人是否会像他们几个月来那样继续支持特朗普，仍有待观察。 |
| “At a certain point, are you really going to hitch your whole party to a guy who is just trying to stay out of jail?” asked former Representative Barbara Comstock, a Virginia Republican who lost her seat when suburban voters turned against Mr. Trump in 2018. “There may be another strategy that Republicans could come up with. And if they can’t, I think they lose.” |
| “到了一个时间点，人们会问，真要让整个政党被一个只是不想坐牢的人绑架吗？”曾任众议员的弗吉尼亚州共和党人芭芭拉·康斯托克说，她在2018年因郊区选民反对特朗普而失去席位。“共和党人也许能想出另一种策略。如果他们不能，我认为他们输定了。” |
| Strategists supporting rivals of Mr. Trump say that over time, the continued charges could hurt his standing with Republican voters, distract Mr. Trump from focusing on presenting his plans for the future and raise questions about his electability in the general election. |
| 支持特朗普对手的策略师们说，随着时间的推移，连续不断的指控会损害特朗普在共和党选民中的地位，分散他的注意力，让他不能专注于介绍他的未来计划，也会让人们怀疑他是否能在大选中获胜。 |
| “Even though people will rally around him in the moment, it starts to erode favorablity and his market share,” said Kristin Davison, chief operating officer of Never Back Down, the super PAC backing Mr. DeSantis. “More people will start to look forward.” |
| “即使此刻人们团结在他周围，但连续不断的指控会开始削弱他的好感度和他在全民中的支持率，”支持德桑蒂斯的超级政治行动委员会“永不退缩”的首席运营官克里斯汀·戴维森说。“更多的人将把目光转向未来。” |
| Or they may not. |
| 或许他们不会。 |
| Republicans’ responses to the third indictment have been similar to their complaints about the previous two — if slightly more muted. Loyal allies in Congress have rallied around Mr. Trump, blasting the Justice Department while most of his rivals for the party’s nomination declined to directly attack him over the charges. |
| 共和党人对第三份起诉书的反应与他们对前两份起诉书的抱怨类似，只是稍微温和一些。特朗普在国会里的忠实盟友们已团结在他周围，猛烈抨击司法部，同时，大多数与他竞争党内提名的对手拒绝就新指控直接攻击他。 |
| Richard Czuba, a veteran pollster who conducts surveys for Detroit’s media outlets, said opinions about Mr. Trump on both sides of the aisle had long been cased in cement. Like the past three cycles, this election will probably be another referendum on Mr. Trump, he said, and the outcome is likely to depend on which side can best drive its voters to the polls — regardless of whether Mr. Trump faces three indictments or 300. |
| 为底特律的媒体做民意调查的资深民意调查员理查德·楚巴说，民主党人和共和党人对特朗普的看法很早以前就固化了。他说，与前三次选举（指2018年的中期选举、2020年的大选，以及2022年的中期选举——译注）一样，这次大选可能也将是对特朗普的一次全民公决，其结果很可能取决于哪个政党能动员最多的选民去投票，不管特朗普是面临三起、还是300起诉讼。 |
| “We have to be brutally honest: Donald Trump sucks all the oxygen out of the room,” Mr. Czuba said. “If you were with him, you’re with him. If you were against him, you’re against him.” |
| “我们不得不说句残忍的实话：特朗普吸引了所有的关注，”楚巴说。“以前支持他的人，将来也支持他。以前反对他的人，将来也反对他。” |
| Still, Democrats are hopeful that in a general election, the indictments might sway some small slice of independents or swing voters. There is little doubt that a steady drumbeat of news out of the various court proceedings will ensure that Mr. Trump’s legal troubles continue to dominate the news in 2024. Court appearances and legal filings will compete for attention with debates and policy rollouts. |
| 尽管如此，民主党人仍希望，这些起诉书可能会在大选中影响一小部分独立人士或摇摆选民。毫无疑问，有关不同法院诉讼程序的源源不断的新闻将确保特朗普的法律纠纷在2024年继续成为新闻焦点。出庭的消息和提交的法律文件将争夺人们对辩论和政策出台的注意力。 |
| Biden campaign officials and allies believe they can focus on topics with a more direct impact on the lives of voters — economic issues, abortion access and extreme weather — without explicitly addressing Mr. Trump’s issues. |
| 拜登竞选团队人员及其支持者认为，他们可以把重点放在对选民生活有更直接影响的话题上，比如经济问题、堕胎权、极端天气等，无需明确讨论特朗普的问题。 |
| About an hour after news of Mr. Trump’s indictment broke, Mr. Biden and his wife finished dinner at a seafood restaurant in Delaware, then went to the movies. The president did not address the indictment, just as he had stayed silent after reports broke of the first two. |
| 特朗普再次被起诉的消息传来大约一个小时后，拜登和夫人在特拉华州的一家海鲜餐厅吃完晚饭，然后去看电影。拜登没有对起诉书发表评论，就像他在前两份起诉书出来后一样保持了沉默。 |
| Still, Democrats believe there will be an impact. Representative Brendan Boyle, a Pennsylvania Democrat who is a member of the Biden campaign’s national advisory board, said prosecuting Mr. Trump for his actions leading up to the Jan. 6 attack has the potential to galvanize the country in a way that the other legal cases against Mr. Trump do not. |
| 尽管如此，民主党人相信这份起诉书将产生影响。宾夕法尼亚州众议员、民主党人布伦丹·博伊尔是拜登竞选团队的全国顾问委员会委员，他表示，针对特朗普导致1月6日冲击国会事件的行为对其提起诉讼有可能激励整个国家，这是其他针对特朗普的法律案件做不到的。 |
| Tens of millions of people tuned in last summer for the hearings of the House Select Committee’s investigation of the Capitol riot, he noted, and Mr. Trump’s approval ratings among persuadable voters dropped afterward. |
| 博伊尔指出，去年夏天，数以千万计的美国人收看了众议院调查冲击国会事件特别委员会的听证会，那之后，特朗普在摇摆选民中的支持率下降了。 |
| Although a federal trial would not be televised, a steady stream of news may be enough to remind voters of the stakes in electing a candidate who is also a defendant, he said. |
| 尽管联邦法院的审理不在电视上播放，但源源不断的新闻可能足以提醒选民，把票投给一名身兼被告的候选人事关重大。 |
| “When you see witness after witness, day after day," Mr. Boyle said, “I wouldn’t dismiss the possibility that that could end up changing things.” |
| “一天又一天，当人们看到一名又一名证人出庭时，我不排除最终产生改变的可能性，”博伊尔说。 |
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