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| Weeks of scorching summer heat in North America, Europe, Asia and elsewhere are putting July on track to be Earth’s warmest month on record, the European Union climate monitor said on Thursday, the latest milestone in what is emerging as an extraordinary year for global temperatures. |
| 欧盟气候监测机构周四表示，北美、欧洲、亚洲和其他地区持续数周的酷暑使7月可能成为地球有记录以来最热的一个月，这将成为这个全球气温异常之年的最新里程碑。 |
| Last month, the planet experienced its hottest June since records began in 1850. July 6 was its hottest day. And the odds are rising that 2023 will end up displacing 2016 as the hottest year. At the moment, the eight warmest years on the books are the past eight. |
| 上个月，地球经历了自1850年有记录以来最热的6月。7月6日是最热的一天。2023年取代2016年成为最热年份的可能性正在上升。目前，记录上最热的八年正是过去的八年。 |
| “The extreme weather which has affected many millions of people in July is unfortunately the harsh reality of climate change and a foretaste of the future,” Petteri Taalas, the secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, said in a statement. “The need to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions is more urgent than ever before.” |
| 世界气象组织秘书长佩蒂里·塔拉斯在声明中表示：“不幸的是，7月对成百上千万人造成影响的极端天气是气候变化的残酷现实，也是未来的预兆。减少温室气体排放的需求比以往任何时候都更加迫切。” |
| The world has entered what forecasters warn could be a multiyear period of exceptional warmth, one in which the warming effects of humankind’s continuing emissions of heat-trapping gases are compounded by El Niño, the recurring climate pattern typically associated with hotter conditions in many regions. |
| 气象预报界警告称，世界已经进入了一个可能持续多年的异常变暖期，在此期间，人类持续排放温室气体的变暖效应与厄尔尼诺现象相结合，这种反复出现的气候模式通常与许多地区的高温天气有关。 |
| Even so, when global average temperatures shatter records by such large margins, as they have been doing since early June, it raises questions about whether the climate is also being shaped by other factors, said Karen A. McKinnon, a climate scientist and statistician at the University of California, Los Angeles. These elements might be less-well understood than global warming and El Niño. |
| 加州大学洛杉矶分校的气候科学家、统计学家卡伦·麦金农说，即便如此，当全球平均气温像6月初以来那样，以如此大的幅度打破记录时，还会引发气候是否也受到其他因素影响的问题，这些因素可能没有全球变暖和厄尔尼诺现象那么容易理解。 |
| “Do we expect, given those two factors, the record to be broken by this much? Or is this a case where we don’t expect it?” Dr. McKinnon said. “Is there some other factor that we’re seeing come into play?” |
| “即便在把这两个因素考虑进去之后，我们预计到记录会被打破这么多吗？抑或这是我们预料之外的情况？”麦金农说。“是否还有其他因素在起作用？” |
| Many parts of the world are continuing to swelter this week as July enters its final days. In the United States, a dangerous heat wave was taking shape on Thursday in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, the National Weather Service said, and high temperatures remained a concern in the Southwest and Central States. It’s been scorching in parts of North Africa, Southeastern Europe and Turkey. Wildfires, amplified by heat and dryness, have raged in Canada and around the Mediterranean. |
| 随着7月进入最后几天，本周世界许多地方依然酷热。美国国家气象局表示，周四，一股危险的热浪正在美国东北部和大西洋中部形成，西南部和中部各州的高温仍令人担忧。北非、东南欧和土耳其的部分地区持续炎热。高温和干燥加剧了野火在加拿大和地中海周围的肆虐。 |
| Researchers who analyzed this month’s punishing heat waves in the Southwestern United States, northern Mexico and Southern Europe said this week that the temperatures observed in those regions, over a span of so many days, would have been “virtually impossible” without the influence of human-driven climate change. |
| 研究人员分析了本月发生在美国西南部、墨西哥北部和南欧的热浪，他们本周表示，如果没有人为造成的气候变化影响，这些地区在这么多天内观察到的气温“几乎是不可能的”。 |
| Still, scientists will need to investigate further to fully understand the “alarming” extent to which the entire surface of the planet has, on average, been hotter than usual this summer, said Emily Becker, a climate scientist at the University of Miami. |
| 不过，迈阿密大学气候科学家艾米丽·贝克尔表示，科学家们还需要进一步调查，以充分了解今年夏天整个地球表面的平均气温比往年高到了何等“惊人”的程度。 |
| Fossil-fuel emissions, which cause heat to build up near Earth’s surface, are certainly playing a role. Since the Industrial Revolution, humans have pumped 1.6 trillion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This has caused the world to be about 1.2 degrees Celsius, or 2.2 Fahrenheit, warmer than it was in the second half of the 19th century. |
| 化石燃料的排放导致地球表面附近的热量积聚，这肯定是一个原因。自工业革命以来，人类已经向大气中排放了1.6万亿吨二氧化碳。这导致全球气温比19世纪下半叶升高了1.2摄氏度。 |
| But the way this extra heat is distributed around the globe is still shaped by a complex brew of factors spanning land, sea and air, plus a certain amount of random chance. Which is why untangling the specific factors behind this summer’s severe heat will take time, Dr. Becker said. “There’s going to need to be quite a lot of research to understand it, and understand if we’re going to be seeing this again next year or 10 years from now.” |
| 但是，这些额外的热量在全球范围内的分布方式仍然受到陆地、海洋和空气等复杂因素的影响，再加上一定的随机因素。贝克尔说，这就是为什么要弄清今夏酷热天气背后的具体因素需要时间。“需要进行大量的研究来理解它，并了解我们是否会在明年或10年后再次看到这种情况。” |
| One factor that probably hasn’t been very important so far this summer, at least not in North America, is El Niño, Dr. Becker said. The cyclical phenomenon emerges when the surface of the central tropical Pacific is hotter than normal. Its arrival, which this year occurred in late spring, triggers a cascade of changes to wind patterns and rainfall around the globe. But its most immediate effects are felt in the tropical and far western Pacific, in places like Indonesia. |
| 贝克尔说，今年夏天到目前为止，有一个因素可能还不是很重要，至少在北美不是，那就是厄尔尼诺现象。当热带太平洋中部表面温度高于正常水平时，这种周期性现象就会出现。今年的厄尔尼诺现象发生在春末，引发了全球风场类型和降雨的一系列变化。但最直接的影响发生在热带和远西太平洋，比如印度尼西亚等地。 |
| “In terms of North America, this El Niño is really just getting started,” said Dr. Becker, who contributes to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s El Niño and La Niña forecasts. Winter is when North America experiences El Niño’s most prominent effects, including wetter conditions in the Southern United States. |
| “就北美而言，厄尔尼诺其实才刚刚开始，”作为美国国家海洋和大气管理局厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜预报专家的贝克尔说。冬季是北美受厄尔尼诺影响最明显的季节，包括美国南部较潮湿的天气。 |
| This summer’s record heat could still affect the way this El Niño plays out later this year and into 2024, Dr. Becker said. Large areas of the planet’s oceans have been warmer than average. If this continues into fall and winter, it could lead to even stronger storms, with even heavier rain, in places that typically receive more storms during El Niño, Dr. Becker said. |
| 贝克尔说，今年夏天创纪录的高温仍可能影响厄尔尼诺现象在今年晚些时候乃至2024年的发展。地球上大片海洋的温度已高于平均水平。贝克尔说，如果这种情况持续到秋冬季，在厄尔尼诺现象期间通常会出现更多风暴的地方，可能会出现更强的风暴，带来更大的降雨。 |
| When it comes to factors besides global warming that may also be worsening heat waves, scientists have been examining potential changes in the jet streams, the rivers of air that influence weather systems around the planet. |
| 除了全球变暖之外，还有其他可能加剧热浪的因素，科学家们一直在研究高速气流的潜在变化，高速气流一种是影响全球天气系统的空气流。 |
| In the Northern Hemisphere, the differences in temperature between the Arctic and the Equator keep the subtropical jet stream moving. As humans warm the planet, those temperature differences are narrowing, which could be causing the jet stream to weaken and hot spells to last longer. |
| 在北半球，北极和赤道之间的温差使亚热带高速气流保持移动。随着人类使地球变暖，这些温差正在缩小，这可能会导致高速气流减弱，热浪持续更长时间。 |
| So far, though, the evidence for this is inconclusive, said Tim Woollings, a professor of physical climate science at the University of Oxford. “It’s really not clear that the jet has been getting weaker,” he said. |
| 不过，牛津大学物理气候科学教授蒂姆·伍林斯表示，到目前为止，这方面还没有确凿的证据。他说：“高速气流是否变得越来越弱，这一点确实还不清楚。” |
| In a study published in April, Dr. Woollings and four other scientists found that human-caused warming might have shifted the jet streams in both hemispheres toward the poles in recent decades. More research is needed to understand this potential shift, he said. But if it continues, it could make subtropical regions susceptible to greater heat and drought, he said. |
| 在今年4月发表的一项研究中，伍林斯和其他四位科学家发现，近几十年来，人类活动引起的变暖可能使两个半球的高速气流向两极转移。他表示，需要更多的研究来了解这种潜在的转变。但他说，如果这种情况持续下去，可能会使亚热带地区更容易受到高温和干旱的影响。 |
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