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| The world’s demographics have already been transformed. Europe is shrinking. China is shrinking, with India, a much younger country, overtaking it this year as the world’s most populous nation. | 世界的人口结构已发生了变化。欧洲的人口在萎缩。中国的人口在萎缩，而人口结构年轻得多的印度将在今年超过中国，成为世界上人口最多的国家。 |
| But what we’ve seen so far is just the beginning. | 但我们到目前为止看到的只是开端。 |
| The projections are reliable, and stark: By 2050, people age 65 and older will make up nearly 40 percent of the population in some parts of East Asia and Europe. That’s almost twice the share of older adults in Florida, America’s retirement capital. Extraordinary numbers of retirees will be dependent on a shrinking number of working-age people to support them. | 这些对未来人口数量的预测是可靠的，也是严峻的：到2050年时，65岁及以上的人口将在东亚部分地区和欧洲占总人口的近40%。这几乎是美国退休之都佛罗里达州老年人口比例的两倍。数量庞大的退休人员将依赖于数量不断减少的劳动年龄人口养活。 |
| In all of recorded history, no country has ever been as old as these nations are expected to get. | 在有记载的历史中，从未有国家的老龄化达到这些国家预计达到的程度。 |
| As a result, experts predict, things many wealthier countries take for granted — like pensions, retirement ages and strict immigration policies — will need overhauls to be sustainable. And today’s wealthier countries will almost inevitably make up a smaller share of global G.D.P., economists say. | 专家们预测，人口老龄化的结果是许多富裕国家曾认为理所当然的事情——比如养老金、退休年龄、严格的移民政策——将需要彻底改革，才能持续下去。经济学家说，今天的较富裕国家在全球GDP中占比几乎不可避免地会变小。 |
| This is a sea change for Europe, the United States, China and other top economies, which have had some of the most working-age people in the world, adjusted for their populations. Their large work forces have helped to drive their economic growth. | 这对欧洲、美国、中国，以及其他大型经济体来说，是个巨大的变化，这些国家曾拥有世界上最多的劳动年龄人口（相对于其人口而言）。庞大的劳动力帮助推动了这些国家的经济增长。 |
| Those countries are already aging off the list. Soon, the best-balanced work forces will mostly be in South and Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East, according to U.N. projections. The shift could reshape economic growth and geopolitical power balances, experts say. | 这些国家的老龄化已让它们从劳动年龄人口占比高的名单上消失。据联合国的预测，在不久的将来，劳动力人口最平衡的国家将主要集中在南亚和东南亚、非洲，以及中东地区。这种转变可能会重塑经济增长和地缘政治力量平衡，专家们说。 |
| In many respects, the aging of the world is a triumph of development. People are living longer, healthier lives and having fewer children as they get richer. | 从许多方面来看，世界老龄化是经济发展的巨大成就。随着人们变得更加富裕，他们的寿命越来越长，身体越来越健康，生的孩子越来越少。 |
| The opportunity for many poorer countries is enormous. When birth rates fall, countries can reap a “demographic dividend,” when a growing share of workers and few dependents fuel economic growth. Adults with smaller families have more free time for education and investing in their children. More women tend to enter the work force, compounding the economic boost. | 许多较贫穷国家面临着巨大机遇。出生率下降后，劳动人口比例增加、需要赡养的人口减少，这将推动经济增长，国家能在这个时期收获“人口红利”。成年人养育的孩子少了，让他们能把更多的空闲时间花在教育和对孩子的未来投资上。更多女性往往会加入劳动大军中来，从而进一步推动经济增长。 |
| Demography isn’t destiny, and the dividend isn’t automatic. Without jobs, having a lot of working-age people can drive instability rather than growth. And even as they age, rich countries will enjoy economic advantages and a high standard of living for a long time. | 人口结构并不决定一切，人口红利也不是必然的。如果没有就业机会，拥有大量劳动年龄人口可能会导致社会不稳定，而不是经济增长。虽然正在老龄化，但富裕国家也将在未来很长一段时间里享受经济优势和高生活水平。 |
| But the economic logic of age is hard to escape. | 但人口结构的经济逻辑难以逃脱。 |
| “All of these changes should never surprise anyone. But they do,” said Mikko Myrskylä, director of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. “And that’s not because we didn't know. It’s because politically it’s so difficult to react.” | “所有这些变化都不应该让任何人感到惊讶。但它们确实令人惊讶，”马克斯·普朗克人口研究所所长米科·米尔斯屈莱说。“这不是因为我们不知道会发生这些变化。而是因为做出反应在政治上有难度。” |
| As in many young countries, birth rates in Kenya have declined drastically in recent years. Women had an average of eight children 50 years ago, but only just over three last year. Demographically, Kenya looks something like South Korea in the mid-1970s, as its economy was beginning a historic rise, although its birth rate is declining somewhat more slowly. Much of South Asia and Africa have similar age structures. | 与许多人口结构年轻的国家一样，肯尼亚的出生率已在近年来急剧下降。50年前，肯尼亚女性平均生育八个孩子，但去年的平均生育率只是三个多一点。从人口结构来看，肯尼亚与 20世纪70年代中期的韩国有些相似，当时韩国经济已开始了其历史性的增长，虽然出生率的下降要慢一些。南亚和非洲大部分地区有类似的人口年龄结构。 |
| The upside is enormous. | 这种人口年龄结构的好处是巨大的。 |
| A similar jump in the working-age population may explain about a third of the economic growth through the end of the last century in South Korea, China, Japan and Singapore, according to the best estimates — an enormous amount of economic growth. | 据最佳估计，上世纪末韩国、中国、日本、新加坡经济增长的很大一部分——约三分之一——是由类似的劳动年龄人口增长推动的。 |
| Many of these demographic changes are already baked in: Most people who will be alive in 2050 have already been born. | 这些人口结构变化在许多国家已经发生：大多数到2050年时仍活着的人已经出生了。 |
| But predictions always involve uncertainty, and there is evidence that sub-Saharan African countries’ fertility rates are dropping even faster than the U.N. projects — meaning that those African countries could be even better positioned in 2050 than currently expected. | 但预测总会涉及不确定性，而且有证据表明，撒哈拉以南非洲国家生育率的下降速度甚至比联合国预测的快，这意味着，到2050年时，这些非洲国家的情况可能比目前预测的要好。 |
| But without the right policies, a huge working-age population can backfire rather than lead to economic growth. If large numbers of young adults don’t have access to jobs or education, widespread youth unemployment can even threaten stability as frustrated young people turn to criminal or armed groups for better opportunities. | 但如果没有正确的政策，庞大的劳动年龄人口可能会带来事与愿违的后果，而不是经济增长。如果大量年轻人得不到工作或教育机会，大范围的年轻人失业甚至可能给稳定造成威胁。为寻找更好的机会，沮丧的年轻人可能会走向犯罪或加入武装团伙。 |
| “If you don’t have employment for those people who are entering the labor force, then it’s no guarantee that the demographic dividend is going to happen,” said Carolina Cardona, a health economist at Johns Hopkins University who works with the Demographic Dividend Initiative. | “如果那些进入劳动力市场的人没有就业机会，那么就不能保证人口红利会发生，”参与人口红利倡议的约翰·霍普金斯大学健康经济学家卡罗琳纳·卡多纳说。 |
| East Asian countries that hit the demographic sweet spot in the last few decades had particularly good institutions and policies in place to take advantage of that potential, said Philip O’Keefe, who directs the Aging Asia Research Hub at the ARC Center of Excellence in Population Aging Research and previously led reports on aging in East Asia and the Pacific at the World Bank. | ARC人口老龄化研究中心的亚洲老龄化研究中心主任、曾负责世界银行的东亚和太平洋地区老龄化报告撰写的菲利普·奥基夫表示，在过去几十年中，达到了人口结构最佳位置的东亚国家拥有特别好的制度和政策来利用这一潜力。 |
| Other parts of the world – some of Latin America, for example – had age structures similar to those East Asian countries’ but haven’t seen anywhere near the same growth, according to Mr. O’Keefe. “Demography is the raw material,” he said. “The dividend is the interaction of the raw material and good policies.” | 奥基夫表示，世界其他地区，例如拉丁美洲的一些地区，人口的年龄结构与东亚国家相似，但远未出现类似的增长。“人口结构是原材料，”他说。“红利来自原材料和良好政策的相互作用。” |
| Today’s young countries aren’t the only ones at a critical juncture. The transformation of rich countries has only just begun. If these countries fail to prepare for a shrinking number of workers, they will face a gradual decline in well-being and economic power. | 当今年轻人口居多的国家并不是唯一处于关键岔口的国家。富裕国家的转型才刚刚开始。如果这些国家未能做好应对劳动力数量减少的准备，它们将面临福祉和经济实力的逐渐下降。 |
| The number of working-age people in South Korea and Italy, two countries that will be among the world’s oldest, is projected to decrease by 13 million and 10 million by 2050, according to U.N. population projections. China is projected to have 200 million fewer residents of working age, a decrease higher than the entire population of most countries. | 根据联合国人口预测，到2050年，韩国和意大利这两个国家的劳动年龄人口预计将分别减少1300万和1000万，这两个国家将成为世界上最年长的国家之一。中国的劳动适龄居民预计将减少2亿，降幅高于大多数国家的总人口。 |
| To cope, experts say, aging rich countries will need to rethink pensions, immigration policies and what life in old age looks like. | 专家表示，为了应对这一问题，富裕国家需要重新考虑养老金、移民政策以及老年生活。 |
| Change will not come easy. More than a million people have taken to the streets in France to protest raising the retirement age to 64 from 62, highlighting the difficult politics of adjusting. Immigration fears have fueled support for right-wing candidates across aging countries in the West and East Asia. | 改变并不容易。法国已有超过100万人走上街头，抗议将退休年龄从62岁提高到64岁，凸显了改变过程中的政治难度。对移民的担忧加剧了西亚和东亚老龄化国家对右翼候选人的支持。 |
| “Much of the challenges at the global level are questions of distribution,” Dr. Myrskylä said. “So some places have too many old people. Some places have too many young people. It would of course make enormous sense to open the borders much more. And at the same time we see that’s incredibly difficult with the increasing right-wing populist movements.” | “全球层面的挑战大部分都跟分布问题有关，”米尔斯屈莱说。“有些地方老人太多了。有些地方年轻人太多了。进一步开放边界当然意义重大。与此同时，我们看到随着右翼民粹主义运动的日益增多，这变得极其困难。” |
| The changes will be amplified in Asian countries, which are aging faster than other world regions, according to the World Bank. A change in age structure that took France more than 100 years and the United States more than 60 took many East and Southeast Asian countries just 20 years. | 世界银行表示，这些变化将在亚洲国家进一步放大，这些国家的老龄化速度比世界其他地区更快。法国经历了100多年、美国经历了60多年的年龄结构变化，许多东亚和东南亚国家只用了20年。 |
| Not only are Asian countries aging much faster, but some are also becoming old before they become rich. While Japan, South Korea and Singapore have relatively high income levels, China reached its peak working-age population at 20 percent the income level that the United States had at the same point. Vietnam reached the same peak at 14 percent the same level. | 亚洲国家不仅老龄化速度更快，而且一些国家还未富先老。虽然日本、韩国和新加坡的收入水平相对较高，但中国达到劳动年龄人口峰值时的收入水平仅为美国达到峰值时的20%。越南也达到了劳动年龄人口峰值，收入水平为美国达到峰值时的14%。 |
| Pension systems in lower-income countries are less equipped to handle aging populations than those in richer countries. | 与富裕国家相比，低收入国家的养老金体系在应对人口老龄化方面的能力较差。 |
| In most lower-income countries, workers are not protected by a robust pension system, Mr. O’Keefe said. They rarely contribute a portion of their wages toward retirement plans, as in many wealthy countries. | 奥基夫说，在大多数低收入国家，工人得不到健全的养老金制度的保护。他们很少像许多富裕国家那样将部分工资用于退休计划。 |
| “That clearly is not a situation that’s going to be sustainable socially in 20 years’ time when you have much higher shares of aged population,” he said. “Countries will have to sort out what model of a pension system they need to provide some kind of adequacy of financial support in an old age.” | “20年后，当老年人口比例大幅提高时，这种情况在社会上显然是不可持续的，”他说。“各国必须弄清楚他们需要什么样的养老金制度模式，以便为老年人提供某种充分的财政支持。” |
| And some rich countries won’t face as profound a change — including the United States. | 包括美国在内的一些富裕国家不会面临如此深刻的变化。 |
| Slightly higher fertility rates and more immigration mean the United States and Australia, for example, will be younger than most other rich countries in 2050. In both the United States and Australia, just under 24 percent of the population is projected to be 65 or older in 2050, according to U.N. projections — far higher than today, but lower than in most of Europe and East Asia, which will top 30 percent. | 例如，略高的生育率和更多的移民意味着到2050年，美国和澳大利亚的人口将比大多数其他富裕国家更年轻。根据联合国的预测，到2050年，美国和澳大利亚65岁或65岁以上的人口比例将略低于24%，远高于目前的水平，但低于欧洲和东亚大多数国家的比例，后者将超过30%。 |
| Aging is a tremendous achievement despite its problems. | 尽管老龄化存在诸多问题，但它仍是一项巨大的成就。 |
| “We’ve managed to increase the length of life,” Dr. Myrskylä said. “We have reduced premature mortality. We have reached a state in which having children is a choice that people make instead of somehow being coerced, forced by societal structures into having whatever number of children.” | “我们成功地延长了寿命，”米尔斯屈莱说。“我们降低了过早死亡率。我们达到了这样一种状态——生育是人们自己的选择，而不是以某种方式，被社会结构逼着非要生多少个孩子。” |
| People aren’t just living longer; they are also living healthier, more active lives. And aging countries’ high level of development means they will continue to enjoy prosperity for a long time. | 人们不仅活得更长，而且活得更健康、更积极。老龄化国家的高度发展意味着他们将在很长一段时间内继续享受繁荣。 |
| But behavioral and governmental policy choices loom large. | 但行为选择和政府的政策选择影响很大。 |
| “You can say with some kind of degree of confidence what the demographics will look like,” Mr. O’Keefe said. “What the society will look like depends enormously on policy choices and behavioral change.” | “在某种程度上，你可以有把握地说出人口结构会是什么样子，”奥基夫说。“社会将变成什么样子，则在很大程度上取决于政策选择和行为改变。” |
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