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德国批准首个对华战略,呼吁减少对中国依赖
Germany Says China Trade Could Create Perilous Dependence

来源:纽约时报    2023-07-14 12:27



        The German government approved its first national strategy on China on Thursday, defining the Asian superpower as “a partner, competitor and systemic rival” and calling for a significant reduction of dependency on Chinese goods while still maintaining economic ties worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
        德国政府周四批准了首个对华国家战略,将中国这个亚洲超级大国定义为“合作伙伴、竞争者和制度性对手”,并呼吁在维持价值数千亿美元的经济关系的同时,大幅减少对中国商品的依赖。
        The new policy calls for export controls and the screening of investments by German companies doing business in China to protect the flow of sensitive technology and know-how. But it fails to address exactly how Berlin plans to review Chinese investments in Germany, a point that has been a recent cause for concern.
        这一新政要求实行出口管制,并对在华德国企业的投资进行审查,以保护敏感和专有技术的流动。但该政策没有具体说明柏林将如何审查中国在德国的投资,这一问题近来引发了许多关切。
        Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government adopted the 61-page document on Thursday, after months of discussions and delays stemming from disagreements within his three-party coalition over how tough their position should be. The strategy echoes themes from the European Union that urge “de-risking” ties with China.
        德国总理朔尔茨领导的政府在周四通过了这份61页的文件,此前,由于三党执政联盟内部在对华立场的强硬程度上存在分歧,该文件经历了数月的讨论和拖延。该战略呼应了欧盟敦促对华“去风险”的政策主旨。
        The government said reducing reliance on Chinese producers and consumers would ultimately strengthen the German economy.
        德国政府表示,减少对中国制造商和消费者的依赖最终将提振本国经济。
        “We do not want to decouple from China, but minimize our risks. This includes strengthening our European economy as well as reducing dependencies,” said Annalena Baerbock, the foreign minister. “The more diverse trade and supply chains are set up, the more resilient our country is,” she added.
        “我们不想与中国脱钩,但希望将自身风险降到最低。这包括加强我们欧洲的经济,并降低依赖程度,”德国外长安娜莱娜·贝尔博克表示。“越是扩大贸易和供应链的多样化,我们的国家就越有韧性,”她补充说。
        The strategy takes a tougher line toward China than the one embraced by governments led by Chancellor Angela Merkel, who viewed China as a huge growth market for German goods.
        该战略采取了更为强硬的对华立场,与之相比,前总理默克尔领导的政府曾将中国视为德国商品的巨大增长市场。
        That push created a tight relationship with China, with more than a million German jobs that depend directly on China, and many more indirectly. Nearly half of all European investments in China are from Germany, and almost half of German manufacturing businesses rely on China for some part of their supply chain.
        这推动德国与中国建立了紧密关系,德国有上百万个工作岗位直接依赖于中国,间接依赖的还有更多。在欧洲对华投资中,近一半来自德国,近一半的德国制造企业的部分供应链也都依赖中国。
        But supply chain issues prompted by the coronavirus pandemic laid bare the extent to which Germany, and Europe, had grown dependent on China for goods, ranging from medicines to processed minerals essential for green technology. Russian’s invasion of Ukraine last year also raised fears that Beijing could take advantage of economic dependencies in ways similar to how Moscow weaponized Germany’s dependence on its natural gas exports.
        但新冠疫情引发的供应链问题暴露了德国与欧洲对中国商品的依赖程度,从药品到绿色科技所必须的加工矿物,无所不包。俄罗斯去年入侵乌克兰也引发了对中国可能会利用这种经济依赖的担忧,就像俄罗斯将德国对其天然气出口的依赖当作武器一样。
        Under the strategy, companies are called on to “more strongly internalize” the geopolitical risks of doing business in China, to prevent the need to tap state funds in the event of a crisis. The government said it was working to provide incentives to encourage German companies to diversify their businesses beyond China.
        在这一战略下,企业被要求将在华开展业务的地缘政治风险“更有力地内部化”,以免在发生危机时需要动用政府资金。政府表示正在出台激励措施,鼓励德国企业在中国以外实现业务多元化。
        The policy also called for reassessing export guarantees, to ensure the protection of sensitive technology, and it stressed Germany’s intent to draw up a list of technology used in fields including cybersecurity and surveillance that would be subject to export controls.
        该政策还要求重新评估出口担保,确保对敏感技术的保护,并强调德国打算制定一份用于网络安全和监控等领域的技术清单,并对这些技术实施出口管制。
        “We have understood that it is in our own national interest to take care of our economic security,” Ms. Baerbock said. She added that Germany could not afford to find itself needing to “pay more than 200 billion euros to get out of a dependency,” as happened when Russia cut off gas flows to Western Europe.
        “我们已经清楚认识到,保护自身经济安全符合我们的国家利益,”贝尔博克说。她还表示,德国不能重蹈俄罗斯切断对西欧天然气供应时的覆辙,需要“支付超过2000亿欧元才能摆脱依赖”。
        The Chinese government, through its embassy in Berlin, on Thursday pushed back against how it had been described in the policy, insisting that it was a partner with Germany, not a rival.
        周四,中国政府通过驻柏林使馆反驳了该政策对中国的描述,坚称德国是中国的合作伙伴而非对手。
        The embassy said in a statement that it “firmly opposes” efforts to “interfere in China’s internal affairs, distort and smear China, and even damage China’s core interests.”
        该使馆在声明中表示,“坚决反对干涉中国内政,歪曲抹黑中国,甚至损害中方核心利益”的行为。
        Whether and how companies will support the policy remains a question. Some midsize and family-led businesses have said geopolitical risks have complicated their business in China, but leading industrial players, such as BASF and Volkswagen, have doubled down on Chinese investments in China.
        企业是否以及如何支持这项政策仍是未知数。一些中型企业和家族企业表示,地缘政治风险使其在中国的业务复杂化,但巴斯夫和大众等工业领头羊均大幅增加了对华投资的力度。
        “Volkswagen Group will continue to invest in China,” said Ralf Brandstätter, Volkswagen’s head of China and a member of the board.
        “大众集团将继续在中国投资,”大众集团中国区总裁兼董事会成员贝瑞德(Ralf Brandstätter)表示。
        “China is a dynamic growth market and a key technological innovation driver,” he said, adding that it is “ultimately crucial for the global competitiveness of Volkswagen and the entire German automotive industry.”
        “中国是一个充满活力的增长市场,也是关键技术创新的驱动者,”他表示,并称中国“对大众集团乃至整个德国汽车行业的全球竞争力都至关重要”。
        The strategy will now move to Parliament, where lawmakers are expected to begin debating it when they reconvene in September.
        这项战略现将提交议会,预计议员将在9月议会重新召开时对此进行辩论。
        Last month, Germany unveiled its first national security strategy, calling for a “robust” defense and other policies. But the government had separated China from the overall strategy, given its importance as Germany’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade volumes last year reaching nearly €300 billion, or about $334 billion.
        德国上个月出台了首份国家安全战略,呼吁采取“强有力的”国防和其他相关政策。但这份总体战略并没有囊括中国,毕竟中国享有德国最大贸易伙伴的重要地位,去年两国双边贸易额接近3340亿美元。
        The strategy makes clear that Berlin has no intention of changing its opposition to China’s claim of sovereignty over Taiwan. “The status quo of the Taiwan Strait may only be changed by peaceful means and mutual consent. Military escalation would also affect German and European interests.”
        该战略表明,在中国对台湾主权主张的问题上,柏林无意改变其反对立场。“台海现状只能通过和平手段和双方认可的方式才能改变。军事升级也将影响德国与欧洲的利益。”
        Coming more than a year after Mr. Scholz decided to take a more critical stance toward Russia after the invasion of Ukraine, the China strategy is the latest step in recalibrating Germany’s foreign policy, said Mikko Huotari, executive director of the Mercator Institute for China Studies.
        墨卡托中国研究所执行主任胡谧空(Mikko Huotari)表示,距离朔尔茨决定对入侵乌克兰的俄罗斯采取更严厉立场过去了一年多时间,此次出台的对华战略是德国重新调整外交政策的最新举措。
        “Looking at China from a risk-oriented perspective is a huge step in a different direction,” Mr. Huotari said. “It is a major shift for Germany.”
        “从风险导向的角度看待中国,是朝着不同方向迈出的一大步,”胡谧空表示。“这对德国来说是一个重大转变。”
        
        
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