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| The News |
| 新闻 |
| China’s economy slowed markedly in the spring from earlier in the year, official numbers released on Monday showed, as exports tumbled, a real estate slump deepened and some debt-ridden local governments had to cut spending after running low on money. |
| 周一发布的官方数据显示，中国经济在今春的表现相较于今年早些时候有大幅放缓，出口急剧下降，房地产萧条进一步加剧，一些债台高筑的地方政府因资金紧缺不得不削减开支。 |
| The new gross domestic product data for the second quarter — from April through June — underlined what has been apparent for weeks: China’s recovery after abandoning its extensive “zero Covid” measures will be harder to achieve than Beijing and many analysts had hoped. |
| 新公布的第二季度从4月到6月的国内生产数据强调了过去几周来已经显露的问题：中国在放弃大规模“清零”政策后的复苏会比北京以及许多分析人士希望的要更艰难。 |
| The Numbers |
| 数字 |
| Covid not only still hangs over China’s economy; it also skews some of its official data. The main G.D.P. number reported by Beijing on Monday, comparing this year with the same quarter last year, showed that the economy expanded 6.3 percent. But that reflected improvement from a sharp downturn in 2022’s second quarter, a period when China’s largest city, Shanghai, was in a two-month lockdown. |
| 新冠不但在中国经济中挥之不去，还扭曲了一些官方数据。和去年同一季度相比，北京在周一公布的主要GDP数字显示经济扩张了6.3%。但这只是说明经济与2022年第二季度的暴跌相比有了改善，当时中国最大城市上海正处于为期两个月的封锁中。 |
| Because of the huge impact of the closure of Shanghai, which has 25 million people, comparing this spring and last spring provides “a misleading picture of China’s economic performance,” said Diana Choyleva, the chief economist at Enodo Economics in London. |
| 伦敦伊诺多经济的首席经济学家戴安娜·乔伊利瓦表示，由于有2500万人口的上海封城产生了巨大影响，比较今年和去年春天会导致“对中国经济表现的误读”。 |
| Instead, analysts said, a more accurate measure of the economy emerges by comparing the second quarter of 2023 with the previous three months, after the “zero Covid” policy was scrapped. |
| 分析人士表示，事实上将2023年第二季度与之前三个月——停止“清零”政策之后——做比较，可以更准确地估量经济的复苏情况。 |
| And by that measure, output was only 0.8 percent higher in the second quarter than the first quarter. When projected out for an entire year, that is a growth rate of a little over 3 percent a year, down from about 9 percent in the first quarter. |
| 这样一来，第二季度经济产出仅比第一季度高出了0.8%。由此推算全年的增长率仅略微超过3%，相比之下第一季度得出的数字是9%。 |
| China’s economy is flashing many warning signs. |
| 中国经济正在显现许多令人警惕的迹象。 |
| Exports plunged, particularly in June. Weak spending is pushing China close to a dangerous trend known as deflation: Consumer prices are flat, and wholesale prices paid by companies are actually falling. |
| 出口急剧下滑，尤其是在6月。支出疲弱正将中国推向被称为通缩的危险趋势：消费价格持平，企业支出的批发价格其实在下跌。 |
| Housing prices have been slipping in smaller cities, and that decline spread to big cities in June. It was a further blow to the country’s real estate development and construction industries, which make up at least a quarter of the economy and have already been shaken by dozens of defaults on bonds issued outside of China. |
| 房地产价格在较小的城市出现下滑，并于6月波及到大城市。这对中国的房地产开发和建设行业造成进一步的打击，该行业占了经济的至少四分之一，此前已经因数十起海外债券违约而备受冲击。 |
| Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday showed that its 70-city index of housing prices fell at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in June, after eroding at an annual rate of only 0.2 percent in May. |
| 国家统计局周六公布的数据显示，70城房价指数在6月环比折年下降2.2%，此前的5月该降幅仅为0.2%。 |
| Investment has stumbled, with foreign companies in particular showing little appetite for putting more money into China. Local governments are short of cash. Baoding, a city of 12 million people in north-central China, had to suspend most bus service last week. |
| 投资也在下跌，外国企业尤其显得不愿意将更多的钱投入到中国。地方政府现金短缺。有1200万人口的中国中北部城市保定上周暂停了大多数公交车服务。 |
| “It’s not a strong recovery; the economy is quite weak,” said Wang Dan, the chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China. |
| “这不是强劲的复苏，经济相当疲软，”恒生银行首席经济学家王丹说。 |
| Last year, after the Shanghai lockdown, retailers in the United States and Europe ordered as much as three months’ worth of inventory from Chinese factories to allow for delivery delays, said Richard Fattal, co-founder of Zencargo, a London logistics company. Companies are now ordering half that amount, temporarily depressing China’s exports. |
| 伦敦物流公司Zencargo联合创始人理查德·法塔尔说，去年上海封城后，美国和欧洲的零售商向中国工厂下了可维持三个月的囤货订单，以备货物交付出现延误。现在的企业订单只有当时数量的一半，给中国的出口造成暂时性的挤压。 |
| Some companies are also moving supply chains out of China, which will have a longer-lasting effect on exports, Mr. Fattal said. |
| 法塔尔表示，一些企业还将供应链迁出中国，给出口带来了更为持久的影响。 |
| Workers are struggling, too. The incomes of millions of people in China were severely depressed during the pandemic, and they remain weak. Unemployment among 16-to-24-year-olds, which was particularly acute last year, has hovered at the highest levels since China started announcing the statistic in 2018. |
| 工人的日子也十分难过。疫情期间，无数中国人的收入已经大幅下降，至今仍未好转。16岁至24岁群体的失业率一直徘徊在中国自2018年开始公布这项统计数据以来的最高水平，在去年尤为严重。 |
| The economy’s performance has been anemic enough in recent weeks that Lou Jiwei, a former finance minister, publicly suggested last week that the Chinese government needed to increase spending this year by between $208 billion and $277 billion to stimulate the economy. |
| 近段时间中国经济的疲软表现已经让前财政部长楼继伟在上周公开建言称，中国政府需要增加1.5至2万亿财政支出来刺激经济。 |
| A few hints of strength can still be found. Car sales were up 8.7 percent in June compared with the previous month, the sixth month of rising sales, said Cui Dongshu, the secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association. |
| 经济中仍有少数领域在发力。乘用车市场信息联席会秘书长崔东树透露，6月汽车销量较上月增长8.7%，实现连续第六个月的增长。 |
| Why It Matters |
| 有何影响 |
| China has a sizable influence on global growth. The government in recent years has pursued a self-reliance campaign to make more goods at home. Still, China remains the world’s largest importer of food, oil and many other commodities. |
| 中国对全球经济增长有着相当大的影响。近年来，中国政府一直推行自主政策，在国内制造更多产品。尽管如此，中国仍是全球最大的食品、石油和许多其他大宗商品的进口国。 |
| But there are many signs that Chinese families are not keen to spend — including the falling prices of staples like pork, and the drastic erosion of the housing market, which has long been the primary way to build wealth. |
| 但许多迹象表明中国家庭并没有大肆消费，包括猪肉等主要产品价格下跌和房地产市场的急剧萎缩，房地产长期以来都是积累财富的首要途径。 |
| Many economists say that China’s demand for goods and services going forward will depend on Beijing’s policy decisions. Some, like Mr. Lou, have called for the central government to unleash a spending program to create jobs and stimulate consumer activity. But a huge accumulation of debt, particularly at the level of local governments, has made that hard to do. Officials have relied instead on monetary policy measures like cuts in interest rates, which were already reduced last month and could be lowered further. |
| 许多经济学家表示，未来中国对商品和服务的需求将取决于北京的决策。楼继伟等人呼吁中央出台支出计划，创造就业机会，刺激消费活动。但巨额的债务累积——尤其是在地方——使得这一目标难以实现。官员们转而依赖于降息等货币政策措施，上个月已经下调利率，接下来可能会进一步降低。 |
| “If there is no policy response, including monetary response, then I don’t expect much of a recovery,” Ms. Wang said. |
| “要是没有包括货币政策在内的政策响应，那我对复苏不抱太大希望，”王丹表示。 |
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