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| Official data from China offered a rare, but brief, glimpse of the true toll of Covid, indicating that nearly as many people may have died from the virus in a single province earlier this year as Beijing has said died in the mainland during the entire pandemic. |
| 来自中国的官方数据罕见但短暂地展示了新冠病毒导致的真实死亡人数，表明今年早些时候，一个省份死于新冠的人数可能几乎相当于北京所说的整个疫情期间中国大陆的死亡人数。 |
| The data was deleted from a provincial government website just days after it was published on Thursday. But epidemiologists who reviewed a cached version of the information said it was the latest indication that the country’s official tally is a vast undercount. |
| 该数据在周四发布于省政府网站，仅几天后就被删除。但流行病学家查看了该信息的缓存页面版本后表示，这是该国官方统计数字严重低估的最新迹象。 |
| The number of cremations in the eastern province of Zhejiang rose to 171,0000 in the first quarter of this year, the website said. That was 72,000 more cremations, a roughly 70 percent increase, than had been reported in the same period last year. |
| 该网站称，今年第一季度，浙江省的火化遗体数增至17.1万。与去年同期相比上升了7.2万，增幅约为70%。 |
| In February, China said the official death toll in the mainland since the start of the pandemic was 83,150 — a remarkably low number that independent researchers have said is not credible. Since then, the government has released only weekly or monthly death tolls that, when added up, raise the overall total to about 83,700. |
| 今年2月，中国表示，自疫情暴发以来，大陆的官方死亡人数为83150人——这个数字非常低，独立研究人员称其不可信。此后，政府仅每周或每月公布死亡人数，将这些数字加起来得到的死亡人数总计约为83700人。 |
| Covid surged across China late last year, forcing the government to abandon its strict pandemic restrictions in December. The government’s abrupt policy reversal, however, left hospitals and pharmacies unprepared for the onslaught and likely accelerated the spread of infections and a wave of deaths across the country. |
| 去年年底，中国新冠病例激增，迫使政府在12月放弃了严格的疫情限制措施。然而，政策的突然逆转让医院和药店对疫情的冲击措手不及，很可能加速了全国范围内的感染蔓延和死亡浪潮。 |
| That surge of Covid infections across China lasted for about two months. The majority of the deaths occurred in January, but many people died in December as well. Epidemiologists estimate that 80 to 90 percent of the population was infected. |
| 中国各地新冠病毒感染病例激增持续了大约两个月。大多数死亡发生在1月，但也有很多人在12月死亡。流行病学家估计80%至90%的人口被感染。 |
| The Zhejiang data offered a window into cremation figures that have been closely guarded by the Chinese government. While the data does not include the cause of death, researchers regularly use excess death statistics to estimate the impact of major deadly events like disasters and pandemics. Everybody who dies in Zhejiang is cremated, officials say. |
| 浙江省的数据为了解中国政府一直严加保密的火葬数据提供了一个窗口。虽然这些数据不包括死亡原因，但研究人员经常使用超额死亡统计数据来估计灾难和流行病等重大致命事件的影响。官员称，在浙江，所有死者都会被火化。 |
| Many local and national authorities have withheld regularly published cremation data since that first major Covid wave started late last year. It is unclear why Zhejiang Province published data for the first quarter of this year, but three days after it surfaced, the report was removed. |
| 自去年年底暴发中国第一波大规模新冠疫情以来，许多地方和国家有关部门都隐瞒了定期公布的火葬数据。目前还不清楚浙江省为何公布今年第一季度的数据，但在公布三天后，该报告就被删除了。 |
| Calls on Tuesday to multiple numbers at Zhejiang’s civil affairs bureau went unanswered. The Beijing-based media outlet Caixin reported on the figures Monday, but its article was also quickly taken down. |
| 周二，拨打浙江民政局的多个电话均无人接听。北京媒体财新周一报道了这些数据，但其文章也很快被撤下。 |
| An analysis by The New York Times published in February estimated that China’s recent Covid wave may have killed between a million and 1.5 million people, based on research from four teams of epidemiologists. |
| 《纽约时报》2月发表的一项分析估计，根据四个流行病学家小组的研究，中国当时的新冠疫情可能已导致100万至150万人死亡。 |
| The new data from Zhejiang — which is limited to a province of 65.8 million people — when extrapolated to the country’s population of 1.4 billion people, is roughly consistent with that range, experts from two of those teams said. |
| 其中两个团队的专家表示，将这份仅限于浙江省6580万人口的数据外推至全国14亿人口时，得出的死亡数据与他们的估算范围大体一致。 |
| Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong, said that the data can be used for a crude estimate of China’s nationwide death toll. “I’m not sure the impact would have been exactly the same in every province, but I think it would be useful for a rough extrapolation,” he said. “It’s consistent with the estimates of around 1.5 million.” |
| 香港大学流行病学家高本恩(Ben Cowling)表示，这些数据可以用来粗略估计中国全国的死亡人数。“我不确定每个省份受到的影响是否完全相同，但我认为这对于粗略推断是有用的，”他说。“这与大约150万的估计相符。” |
| Another team of researchers — Lauren Ancel Meyers, a professor of biology and statistics at the University of Texas at Austin and Zhanwei Du, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong — reached a rough estimate of 1.54 million deaths from December through March in mainland China, based on the cremation count. |
| 另一组研究人员——得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校生物学和统计学教授劳伦·安塞尔·迈耶斯和香港大学流行病学家杜占玮——根据火化遗体数粗略估计，从12月到3月中国大陆有154万人死亡。 |
| Last year, using an entirely different method based on tests of infections, vaccine effectiveness and other factors in China, the same research team estimated a most likely value of 1.55 million deaths for a slightly shorter period within a plausible range of 1.2 million to 1.7 million. The similarity of those figures to the current estimate probably indicates that Covid spread through all provinces in China in a similar way after the zero Covid policy ended, Ms. Meyers said. |
| 去年，该研究小组根据中国的感染测试、疫苗有效性和其他因素采用了一种完全不同的方法，在比前述估计稍短的时间范围内，估算最有可能有155万人死亡，波动在120万至170万的合理范围之间。迈耶斯说，这些数字与当前估计相似，这可能表明，在“清零”政策结束后，新冠病毒以类似的方式在中国所有省份传播。 |
| “The fact that you end up with these very similar numbers suggests that things were equally devastating around the country,” Ms. Meyers said. |
| 迈耶斯说：“最终得出了这些非常相似的数字，这一事实表明全国各地都遭受了同样的灾难性打击。” |
| Yong Cai, a demographer at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill who studies mortality in China, arrived at an estimate of 1.5 million deaths for the first quarter of the year, based on the cremation data, and said that to gauge total mortality during the surge, deaths in December of last year, when cases started to spike, needed to be factored in. |
| 北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校研究中国死亡率的人口统计学家蔡泳根据火葬数据估计，今年第一季度有150万人死亡，并表示要衡量感染激增期间的整体死亡率，去年12月的死亡人数需要考虑在内，这是病例开始激增的月份。 |
| He said he was surprised by Zhejiang’s cremation number. “It’s higher than I expected.” |
| 他说，他对浙江的火化遗体数感到惊讶。“这比我预期的要高。” |
| Zhejiang is one of China’s wealthiest provinces, with good health care and an elderly vaccination rate above the national average. Its age distribution population is roughly representative of China on the whole, with 19 percent of the population over 60. In December, as Covid spread widely, Zhejiang’s health authorities announced that the province was recording one million infections a day. |
| 浙江是中国最富裕的省份之一，医疗卫生条件良好，老年人疫苗接种率高于全国平均水平。其年龄分布大致可以代表中国的整体情况，60岁以上人口占总人口的19%。去年12月，随着新冠疫情的广泛传播，浙江省卫生部门宣布该省每天的感染人数已达100万。 |
| All four epidemiologists and demographers cautioned that there are caveats and uncertainties in extrapolating the cremation data. But without more reliable data from China, academics say they have to rely on imperfect information to estimate the impact of the virus. |
| 所有四位流行病学家和人口统计学家都警告，外推火化数据时有一些需要注意的地方以及不确定性。但由于没有来自中国的更可靠数据，学者们表示，他们不得不依靠有缺陷的信息来估计该病毒的影响。 |
| “We don’t have anything better,” Mr. Cai said. |
| “我们没有更好的方法，”蔡泳说。 |
| Other recent clues hint at the impact elsewhere in the country. Data released earlier this year showed a substantial decline in Shanghai’s life expectancy, from 84.1 in 2021 to 83.2 in 2022, for the first time at this scale since 1983. The drop is likely attributable to the December Covid surge combined with a stringent lockdown in the spring of that year, which prevented some residents from accessing medical care, Mr. Cai said. |
| 其他近期线索暗示了中国其他地区受到的影响。今年早些时候发布的数据显示，上海的预期寿命大幅下降，从2021年的84.1岁下降到2022年的83.2岁，这是自1983年以来首次出现这样的大幅下降。蔡泳表示，这一下降可能是由于12月新冠疫情激增以及那年春天的严格封锁措施造成的，这些措施导致一些居民无法获得医疗服务。 |
| “I sincerely hope that the Chinese government can publish all the data available, make it transparent so people can understand what’s going on,” he said. “They have the data. It’s sitting somewhere.” |
| “我真诚地希望中国政府能够公布所有现有数据，使其透明，以便人们能够了解发生了什么，”他说。“他们有数据。这些数据就在某个地方。” |
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