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俄罗斯兵变疑云犹存,莫斯科领导层“隐身”引关注
Gripped by Uncertainty After Mutiny, Russians Note Absence of Kremlin Leaders

来源:纽约时报    2023-06-26 02:10



        Confusion and uncertainty pervaded Russia on Sunday, with neither President Vladimir V. Putin nor Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the head of a mutinous mercenary group, appearing anywhere in public a day after the most profound government crisis in three decades — an open military rebellion — appeared defused.        周日,俄罗斯弥漫着困惑和不确定性,在30年来最深重的政府危机——一场公开的军事叛乱——似乎被化解后的一天里,总统普京和哗变的雇佣军集团头目叶夫根尼·普里戈任都没有出现在公众面前。
        Even as state television tried to trumpet the fact that Russian unity and “maturity” had prevailed, independent commentators assessing the damage concluded that Mr. Putin’s aura of infallibility and invincibility had been punctured. And some wondered aloud why much of Russia’s leadership was being neither seen nor heard.        尽管国家电视台大肆宣扬俄罗斯的团结和“成熟”,但评估损失的独立评论人士得出的结论是,普京无懈可击、不可战胜的光环已经被戳破。一些人大声质疑,为什么俄罗斯领导层的大部分人既没有露面,也没有发声。
        Aside from Mr. Putin, neither Sergei K. Shoigu, the minister of defense, nor Valery V. Gerasimov, the military chief of staff, had put in a public appearance since the uprising started on Friday night. Many heads of the country’s security services also proved invisible.        除了普京,国防部长谢尔盖·绍伊古和俄军总参谋长瓦列里·格拉西莫夫自周五晚上兵变开始以来都没有公开露面。该国安全部门的许多负责人最后也没有出现。
        “Where was the leadership of the Ministry of Defense during the approach of the armed unit to Moscow?” wrote Yuri Kotenok, one of a small tribe of influential military bloggers who have emerged as a supportive if critical voice regarding the war in Ukraine. Could a foreign enemy, he asked, march with equal ease on the capital?        “在武装部队接近莫斯科时,国防部的领导在哪里?”尤里·科特诺克写道。他是一小群有影响力的军事博主中的一员,他们对乌克兰战争表达支持但不乏批评的声音。他问道,外国敌人是否也能同样轻松地进军首都?
        World leaders also chimed in. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said on Sunday that Mr. Prigozhin’s rebellion had revealed cracks in Mr. Putin’s hold on power. “It was a direct challenge to Putin’s authority,” Mr. Blinken said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.’’        世界各国领导人也纷纷发表意见。国务卿布林肯周日表示,普里戈任的叛乱暴露出普京对权力的掌控出现了裂痕。“这是对普京权威的直接挑战,”布林肯在CBS台的《面对全国》(Face the Nation)节目中说。
        In the end, Mr. Prigozhin, the head of the mercenary force known as Wagner, called off his men after staging an armed uprising against the military’s leadership for nearly 24 hours this weekend. But the damage had been done, not least because his blistering criticism of the military leaders as incompetent included questioning the Kremlin’s justifications for invading its neighbor in the first place.        周末,领导着被称为瓦格纳的雇佣军的普里戈任发动了一场针对军方领导层的兵变,近24小时后,他最终下令取消行动。但损害已经造成,尤其是因为他猛烈批评军事领导人的无能,还质疑克里姆林宫首先入侵邻国的理由。
        Russians — and the world — had watched with alarm as his columns of armored vehicles inched ever closer to Moscow with little armed opposition, posing a threat to Mr. Putin and raising the specter of a civil war in the nuclear-armed state.        俄罗斯人——以及全世界——惊恐地看着他的装甲车队越来越靠近莫斯科,几乎没有遭遇武装对抗,这对普京构成了威胁,并且令人们担心这个拥有核武器的国家会爆发内战。
        “Putin and the state have been dealt a severe blow,” wrote Tatiana Stanovaya, the founder of the political analysis firm R.Politik. She predicted it would have significant repercussions for the regime.        “普京和国家受到了沉重的打击,”政治分析机构R.Politik的创始人塔蒂亚娜·斯坦诺瓦娅写道。她预测,这将对俄罗斯政权产生重大影响。
        Ms. Stanovaya noted that Mr. Prigozhin had reversed course only after Mr. Putin, a longtime ally, expressed fury at what the president described as a “stab in the back.” Mr. Prigozhin, she wrote, “found himself unprepared to assume the role of a revolutionary.”        斯坦诺瓦娅指出,在普京愤怒地称这是在“背后捅刀子”后,作为其长期盟友的普里戈任才停手。她写道,普里戈任“发现自己没准备好扮演一个革命者的角色”。
        “He also wasn’t prepared for the fact that Wagner was about to reach Moscow, where his only option remained — to ‘take the Kremlin’ — an action that would inevitably result in him and his fighters being eradicated,” Ms. Stanovaya wrote.        “他也没有准备好面对瓦格纳即将抵达莫斯科的事实,在那里,他唯一的选择就是‘占领克里姆林宫’——这一行动将不可避免地导致他和他的战士被消灭,”斯坦诺瓦娅写道。
        A new analysis by a FilterLabs.AI, a firm that tracks public sentiment in Russia by monitoring social media and internet forums, found that Mr. Prigozhin was also subjected to a Kremlin propaganda assault. And access to Telegram channels that were controlled by Mr. Prigozhin or supportive of him became more difficult, with users reporting slowdowns.        FilterLabs.AI是一家通过监控社交媒体和互联网论坛来追踪俄罗斯舆情的公司,它的一项新分析发现,普里戈任也受到了克里姆林宫的宣传攻击。此外,访问由普里戈任控制或支持他的Telegram频道变得更加困难,用户报告说,这些频道的速度变慢了。
        Public support for Mr. Prigozhin and Wagner fell sharply, FilterLabs found.        FilterLabs发现,公众对普里戈任和瓦格纳的支持率大幅下降。
        “For Prigozhin’s campaign to have worked, he would have needed to see high support in Moscow,” the FilterLabs analysis said. “This did not materialize, despite his own base of support and media campaigns.”        “要想让普里戈任的行动奏效,他需要在莫斯科获得很高的支持,”FilterLabs的分析称。“尽管他有自己的支持基础和媒体宣传,但还是没有实现这一点。”
        Instead a deal was reached.        结果,双方达成了协议。
        The Wagner forces would turn around, and Mr. Prigozhin could go to neighboring Belarus and avoid criminal charges. The Wagner fighters, too, would be absolved.        瓦格纳部队会撤退,普里戈任可以前往邻国白俄罗斯,并且免受刑事指控。瓦格纳士兵也将获得赦免。
        The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, said the agreement had been struck to “avoid bloodshed, to avoid an internal confrontation, to avoid clashes with unpredictable consequences.” He did not indicate that the uprising would lead to any changes in the Russian military leadership, as Mr. Prigozhin had demanded, and said that Russia’s military operations in Ukraine would continue unchanged.        克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫表示,达成协议是为了“避免流血,避免内战,避免后果不堪设想的冲突”。他没有暗示此次兵变会导致俄罗斯军方领导层发生任何变动——如普里戈任要求的那样——并称俄罗斯将继续推进在乌克兰的军事行动。
        The deal that defused the hostilities was credited to Belarus’s leader, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, a Putin ally. Had Mr. Putin fallen, of course, Mr. Lukashenko would also have been vulnerable, so in aiding his patron, he was also aiding himself.        化解敌对行动的协议被认为是普京盟友、白俄罗斯领导人卢卡申科的功劳。如果普京倒台,卢卡申科当然也自身难保,所以帮助他的支持者也是在帮助自己。
        “Putin lost because he showed how weak his system is, that he can be challenged so easily,” said Pavel Slunkin, a former Belarusian diplomat and analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Prigozhin challenged, he attacked, he was so bold and then he retreated, looking like a loser. Only Lukashenko won points.”        “普京输了,因为他暴露了自己的体制有多么脆弱,他的权威是多么容易就受到挑战,”前白俄罗斯外交官、欧洲外交关系委员会分析师帕维尔·斯伦金表示。“普里戈任挑战了,进攻了,他是那么大胆,随后他选择撤退,看起来像个输家。只有卢卡申科是得利者。”
        The rebellion, even if aborted, may now affect Russia’s global standing as partners like China reassess the strength of Mr. Putin’s authority.        随着中国等盟友重新评估普京的权威,即便这场叛乱被中止,依然可能影响俄罗斯的国际地位。
        Mr. Prigozhin proved uncharacteristically quiet on Sunday, a day after he was seen driving away from the military headquarters in the southwestern city of Rostov-on-Don that his forces had seized during the uprising. An independent Russian broadcaster who asked Mr. Prigozhin’s spokesman for comment was told that he was unavailable, but that he would soon start responding to the press.        周日,普里戈任一反常态地保持了沉默,前一天,人们看到他驱车离开西南城市顿河畔罗斯托夫的军方总部,他的部队在叛变期间占领了那里。俄罗斯一家独立广播公司向普里戈任的发言人寻求置评,得到的答复是他暂时没空,但很快就会开始对媒体作出回应。
        It was unclear how safe Mr. Prigozhin might be in Belarus, given Mr. Putin’s track record of pursuing those whom he believes betrayed him, whether in Russia or abroad. As if to emphasize this point, Vesti Nedelu, the Kremlin’s signature weekly television show, broadcast an old clip on Sunday of Mr. Putin saying that the one thing he could never forgive was “betrayal.” A guest on another prominent talk show called for Mr. Prigozhin and his top military commander to be executed.        鉴于普京曾在国内外追捕在他看来背叛了自己的人,目前尚不清楚普里戈任在白俄罗斯是否安全。似乎是为了强调这一点,克里姆林宫的招牌电视节目《每周要闻》(Vesti Nedelu)周日放送了一段资料片,内容是普京说他永远不会原谅“背叛”的行为。另一档著名脱口秀节目上的一位嘉宾呼吁处决普里戈任和他手下的最高军事指挥官。
        Beyond that, Mr. Prigozhin’s ambitions as a military leader might clash with the goals of Mr. Lukashenko, who has tried to keep his country out of the war.        除此之外,作为一名军事领导人,普里戈任的野心可能会与卢卡申科的意图发生冲突,后者一直试图避免白俄罗斯被卷入战争。
        “It will be dangerous for Lukashenko to have Wagner in Belarus,” said Dmitry Bolkunets, a Belarusian political scientist who taught at an elite Moscow university before becoming an opposition activist.        “对卢卡申科来说,让瓦格纳驻扎在白俄罗斯是非常危险的,”白俄罗斯政治学者德米特里·博尔库涅茨表示,他曾在莫斯科一所精英大学任教,后来成为反对派活动人士。
        “Prigozhin is a Z patriot,” Mr. Bolkunets said, referring to the letter that has come to symbolize the conflict in Ukraine. “He is a guy who supports the war, who wants an empire, and Lukashenko is afraid of the empire.”        “普里戈任是一名‘Z’爱国者,”博尔库涅茨说,“Z”字母已成为乌克兰冲突的象征符号。“他支持这场战争,想要打造一个帝国,但卢卡申科害怕那样的帝国。”
        Wagner fighters were seen streaming out of Rostov-on-Don, the military hub, to the sound of residents chanting the group’s name. It was unclear where they were headed.        在当地居民高喊“瓦格纳”的口号中,瓦格纳士兵陆续离开了顿河畔罗斯托夫这一军事要塞。尚不清楚他们将前往何方。
        The group of mercenaries that spearheaded some of Russia’s most effective military campaigns in Ukraine said they had already been facing a choice: to submit to, and be controlled by, the country’s Defense Ministry — an agency they openly despise — or be disbanded.        这个雇佣兵组织曾在俄罗斯一些最高效的对乌军事行动中充当先遣军,他们称自己正面临抉择:要么臣服于他们公开鄙视的俄罗斯国防部并被其控制,要么就被解散。
        Nikolai A. Pankov, Russia’s deputy defense minister, said on June 10 that the country’s numerous “volunteer regiments” would have to sign contracts with the ministry by the end of the month. Days later, Mr. Putin told a group of pro-military bloggers that the contracts should be signed as soon as possible.        俄罗斯国防副部长尼古拉·潘科夫6月10日表示,该国的众多“志愿兵团”需在本月底之前与国防部签署合同。几天后,普京告诉一群亲军方博主,合同应尽快得到签署。
        Mr. Prigozhin had no intention of bowing to the Russian military commanders he had frequently accused of corruption and incompetence. “No one will sign the contracts,” he said in a statement on June 14.        普里戈任无意向俄罗斯军事指挥官低头,他经常批判后者的腐败无能。“没有人会签这些合同,”他在6月14日的声明中表示。
        On Sunday, it was unclear if that held true.        到周日,他的这番话不知是否还能作数。
        For Ukraine, although the upheaval could strain Russia’s war effort, analysts thought it would create less of an opportunity than if the Russian military had been forced to withdraw reserve units from the front to protect Moscow.        对乌克兰而言,尽管这场兵变可能会影响俄罗斯的战争行动,但分析人士认为,如果俄军没有被迫撤走前线预备部队去保护莫斯科,如今的形势就不算太大的机会。
        Attacks continued. Russian shelling hit a five-story apartment building before dawn in Ukraine’s southern region of Kherson, killing a 44-year-old man and trapping a woman under the rubble, local officials said.        俄军攻势仍在继续。当地官员称,俄军在黎明前炮击了乌克兰南部赫尔松地区的一栋五层公寓楼,造成一名44岁男子死亡,一名女性被困在废墟之下。
        President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine seized on the brief rebellion to reemphasize his message that his country is fighting an unstable neighbor on behalf of all of Europe.        乌克兰总统泽连斯基抓住了这场短暂叛乱的机会,再次重申他的信息,即乌克兰正在代表欧洲与一个动荡的邻国作战。
        “Today the world saw that the bosses of Russia do not control anything,” Mr. Zelensky said in a video address late on Saturday. “Nothing at all. Complete chaos. Complete absence of any predictability.”        “今天,全世界都看到了俄罗斯的领导人对一切失去控制,”泽连斯基在周六晚间的视频讲话中说道。“完全的无能为力。彻头彻尾的混乱。根本没有任何可预测性。”
        Mr. Zelensky mocked Mr. Putin, without naming him.        虽然没有指名道姓,泽连斯基嘲讽了普京。
        “I will say it in Russian: The man from the Kremlin is obviously very afraid and probably hiding somewhere, not showing himself,” he said.        “这番话我要用俄语说:克里姆林宫的那个男人显然非常恐惧,他可能正躲在某个地方,不敢露面,”他说。
                
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