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失势军阀的绝望一击:普里戈任为何叛乱
His Glory Fading, a Russian Warlord Took One Last Stab at Power

来源:纽约时报    2023-06-27 08:27



        Well before Yevgeny V. Prigozhin seized a major Russian military hub and ordered an armed march on Moscow, posing a startling and dramatic threat to President Vladimir V. Putin, the caterer-turned-mercenary-boss was losing his own personal war.        早在叶夫根尼·普里戈任占领俄罗斯一个重要军事中心,下令武装进军莫斯科,对普京总统构成惊人而戏剧性的威胁之前,这位供餐服务商出身的雇佣兵头目就已经开始输掉自己的个人战争。
        Mr. Prigozhin’s private army had been sidelined. His lucrative government catering contracts had come under threat. The commander he most admired in the Russian military had been removed as the top general overseeing Ukraine. And he had lost his most vital recruiting source for fighters: Russia’s prisons.        普里戈任的私人军队被排挤出局。他利润丰厚的政府餐饮合同受到了威胁。他在俄罗斯军队中最钦佩的指挥官被解除了对乌战争最高指挥官的职务。他还失去了最重要的征兵渠道——俄罗斯监狱。
        Then, on June 13, his only hope for a last-minute intervention to spare him a bitter defeat in his long-running power struggle with Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu was dashed.        他唯一的希望是在最后一刻进行干预,在与俄罗斯国防部长谢尔盖·绍伊古的长期权力斗争中免遭惨败,这个希望在6月13日破灭了。
        Mr. Putin sided publicly with Mr. Prigozhin’s adversaries, affirming that all irregular units fighting in Ukraine would have to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. That included Mr. Prigozhin’s private military company, Wagner.        普京公开站在普里戈任的对手一边,坚称所有在乌克兰作战的非正规部队都必须与国防部签订合同。其中包括普里戈任的私人军事公司瓦格纳。
        Now, the mercenary chieftain would be subordinated to Mr. Shoigu, an unparalleled political survivor in modern Russia and Mr. Prigozhin’s sworn enemy.        现在,这位雇佣兵首领将听命于绍伊古,一位有着在现代俄罗斯无与伦比的顽强政治生命的人物,也是普里戈任的死敌。
        “This must be done,” Mr. Putin told a gathering of government-friendly war correspondents at the Kremlin. “It must be done as soon as possible.”        “必须这么做,”普京在克里姆林宫同一群对政府友好的战地记者说。“这件事必须尽快完成。”
        What happened next stunned the world: Mr. Prigozhin mounted an armed insurrection that he insisted was aimed not at deposing Mr. Putin but at overthrowing the Kremlin’s military leadership.        接下来发生的事情震惊了世界:普里戈任发动了一场武装叛乱,他坚称这次叛乱的目的不是推翻普京,而是推翻克里姆林宫的军事领导层。
        The mutiny, however short-lived, has been widely viewed as an ominous political harbinger for Mr. Putin’s leadership, one that could presage more instability as the Russian president presses on with his costly war.        这场兵变虽然短暂,但被广泛视为对普京领导地位的一个不祥政治预兆,随着这位俄罗斯总统继续推进代价高昂的战争,这场兵变可能预示着更多的不稳定。
        But it is equally the personal story of an obstreperous and mercurial freelance warlord who undertook an emotional last-ditch attempt to win by force one of the most extraordinary Russian power struggles in recent memory.        但它同样也是个人的故事,讲的是一个不服管束、反复无常的“自雇”军阀做了一次情绪化的最后尝试,试图通过武力赢得俄罗斯相当长一段时间里最不寻常的权力斗争之一。
        Many powerful Russian figures have come out on the losing end of factional battles during Mr. Putin’s 23 years as Russia’s leader, ultimately receding into exile, prison or anonymity.        在普京担任俄罗斯领导人的23年里,许多有权势的俄罗斯人物在派系斗争中败下阵来,最终落得流亡、入狱或被人遗忘的下场。
        But with his rebellion over the weekend, Mr. Prigozhin chose a different path, allowing his anguish and anger to play out for the world to see as he took actions uniquely available to someone with a national megaphone — and a well-armed, aggrieved private army.        但在周末的叛乱中,普里戈任选择了一条不同的道路,让他的痛苦和愤怒在世界面前表现出来,他采取的行动是只有当一个人拥有可以向全国广播的扩音器——以及一支装备精良、愤愤不平的私人军队——时,才能做到的。
        “Prigozhin’s rebellion wasn’t a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin,” Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, wrote in an analysis of the events. “It arose from a sense of desperation; Prigozhin was forced out of Ukraine and found himself unable to sustain Wagner the way he did before, while the state machinery was turning against him.’’        “普里戈任的叛乱不是为了夺权,也不是为了推翻克里姆林宫,”卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心高级研究员塔季扬娜·斯坦诺瓦娅在对事件的分析中写道。“它源于一种绝望的感觉;普里戈任被迫离开乌克兰,他发现自己无法像以前那样维持瓦格纳,而国家机器正在开始针对他。”
        “To top it off,’’ she added, “Putin was ignoring him and publicly supporting his most dangerous adversaries.”        “最糟糕的是,”她补充说,“普京无视他,公开支持他最危险的对手。”
        Mr. Prigozhin had built a sizable financial and military empire. But as his political defiance grew, the flow of money from the Defense Ministry and other government contracts was at risk of drying up. And he chafed at the prospect of taking orders from people whom he considered incompetent.        普里戈任建立了一个规模庞大的金融和军事帝国。但随着他在政治上的反抗越来越强烈,来自国防部和其他政府合同的资金流面临枯竭的风险。想到要听命于他认为无能的人,他感到恼火。
        Still, when Mr. Putin denounced his actions on Saturday as treason, Mr. Prigozhin appeared to have been caught off-guard, unprepared to be a true revolutionary or continue a march on the Kremlin that he realized would almost certainly end in defeat, Ms. Stanovaya wrote.        尽管如此,斯坦诺瓦亚写道,当普京周六谴责他的行为是叛国罪时,普里戈任似乎措手不及,没有准备好真的做一名革命者,也没有准备好继续向克里姆林宫进军,他意识到这几乎肯定会以失败告终。
        And so when Mr. Prigozhin was offered a chance to end the crisis by withdrawing his forces, he took it.        因此,当普里戈任有机会通过撤军来结束危机时,他抓住了这个机会。
        “Prigozhin’s mutiny was ultimately a desperate act of someone who was cornered,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at the Virginia-based research group CNA. “His options were narrowing as his bitter dispute intensified.”        “普里戈任的叛变说到底是一个被逼入绝境的人的铤而走险,”弗吉尼亚研究组织CNA的俄罗斯研究主任迈克尔·科夫曼说。“随着他的激烈争执加剧,他的选择越来越少。”
        Over the years, with his connections to Mr. Putin and the Kremlin, Mr. Prigozhin was able to secure lucrative contracts to provide food for the Moscow school system and Russian military bases, amassing great wealth. At the same time, he engaged in foreign adventurism through Wagner that suited the Kremlin, advancing Moscow’s aims — and his own — in the Middle East and Africa, where his fighters have been accused of indiscriminate killings and atrocities.        多年来,普里戈任凭借与普京和克里姆林宫的关系获得了利润丰厚的合同,为莫斯科学校系统和俄罗斯军事基地提供食品,积累了巨额财富。与此同时,他通过瓦格纳从事有利于克里姆林宫的对外冒险主义,在中东和非洲推进莫斯科的目标——以及他自己的目标,他的战士被指控在这些地区肆意杀戮,犯下暴行。
        He also shepherded the Internet Research Agency, the infamous St. Petersburg troll farm that interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.        他还管理着臭名昭著的圣彼得堡网络巨魔农场(troll farm)“互联网研究机构”,后者曾干预2016年美国总统选举。
        So secretive was Mr. Prigozhin about his activities that he long denied any association with Wagner and even sued Russian media outlets for reporting on his connection to the group.        普里戈任对自己的活动讳莫如深,以至于他长期否认与瓦格纳有任何关系,甚至起诉报道他与该组织关系的俄罗斯媒体。
        All that changed last year with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.        去年,随着对乌克兰的全面入侵,这一切都发生了变化。
        In September, Mr. Prigozhin went public for the first time as the man behind Wagner.        9月,普里戈任首次公开了他作为瓦格纳幕后领导人的身份。
        Less than two weeks later, Mr. Putin appointed Gen. Sergei Surovikin to lead the war effort in Ukraine, a boon for the mercenary chief, who had worked with the general in Syria. Mr. Prigozhin described the new leader as a legendary figure and the most capable commander in the Russian army.        不到两周后,普京任命谢尔盖·苏罗维金将军领导乌克兰战争,这对这位瓦格纳领导人来说是个福音,他曾在叙利亚与这位将军共事。普里戈任形容这位新领导人是一位传奇人物,也是俄罗斯军队中最有能力的指挥官。
        Mr. Prigozhin’s own stature was growing, too, as his fighters appeared to be making progress in the drawn-out battle for the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, while the Russian military had little to show. . Russian commentators lavished positive coverage upon the mercenary group, and a glass tower in St. Petersburg was rebranded Wagner Center. Recruitment posters for the outfit went up across the country.        普里戈任自己的地位也在不断提高,因为他的战士们似乎在乌克兰城市巴赫穆特旷日持久的战斗中取得了进展,而俄罗斯军队却几乎没有什么表现。俄罗斯评论员对雇佣兵组织进行了大量正面报道,圣彼得堡的一座玻璃塔被重新命名为“瓦格纳中心”。全国各地都张贴着该组织的招募海报。
        But by the beginning of this year, Mr. Prigozhin’s adversaries in the Ministry of Defense began reasserting their power.        但到了今年年初,普里戈任在国防部的对手开始重新确立自己的权力。
        In January, Mr. Putin appointed Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov, to replace General Surovikin as the top commander of operations in Ukraine. Mr. Prigozhin frequently belittled General Gerasimov in his Telegram audio messages, implying that he was an office-bound official of the kind that smothers regular soldiers with bureaucracy.        1月,普京任命瓦列里·V·格拉西莫夫将军接替苏罗维金将军,担任乌克兰行动最高指挥官。普里戈任经常在Telegram音频消息中贬低格拉西莫夫,暗示他是个坐办公室的官员,用官僚主义压得普通士兵喘不过气来。
        The enmity appears to date at least to Moscow’s intervention in Syria’s civil war, when Wagner and regular Russian soldiers sometimes clashed as they competed for resources and the spoils of war, according to the published memoirs of two Wagner veterans. Mr. Prigozhin himself went public about these tensions in Syria last year.        根据两名瓦格纳退伍战士出版的回忆录,这种敌意似乎至少可以追溯到莫斯科对叙利亚内战的干预,当时瓦格纳和俄罗斯普通士兵有时会在争夺资源和战利品时发生冲突。去年,普里戈任本人公开谈论了叙利亚的紧张局势。
        In February, Mr. Prigozhin acknowledged that his access to Russian prisons to recruit had been cut off. The Defense Ministry would later begin recruiting prisoners there itself, adopting Mr. Prigozhin’s tactic.        今年2月,普里戈任承认,他进入俄罗斯监狱招募新兵的渠道已被切断。国防部后来开始效仿普里戈任的策略,在那里招募囚犯。
        Tension between Wagner and the Russian military — long alluded to by Russian military bloggers — exploded into the open. By the end of February, Mr. Prigozhin was publicly accusing Mr. Shoigu and General Gerasimov of treason, claiming that they were deliberately withholding ammunition and supplies from Wagner to destroy it.        对瓦格纳与俄罗斯军方之间的紧张关系,俄罗斯军事博主早有暗示,如今则彻底公开化了。到2月底,普里戈任公开指责绍伊古和格拉西莫夫大将叛国,称他们故意拒绝提供弹药和物资,意在整垮瓦格纳集团。
        At the end of February, Mr. Putin tried to settle the feud by calling Mr. Prigozhin and Mr. Shoigu into a meeting, according to leaked intelligence documents .        泄露的情报文件显示,2月底,普京曾试图召集普里戈任和绍伊古会面来解决争端。
        But the rivalry would only escalate. No longer able to recruit prisoners, Wagner was forced to rely increasingly on its limited supply of skilled veteran fighters to continue waging battle in Bakhmut, according to Ukrainian and Western officials.        但敌对持续升级。据乌克兰和西方官员称,由于无法再招募囚犯,瓦格纳被迫越来越多地依靠数量有限的老兵在巴赫穆特继续作战。
        Isolated from the Moscow power center, Mr. Prigozhin increasingly turned to his bully pulpit: social media. His messages also grew far more political as he began appealing directly to the Russian people. He began voicing criticisms that, in a country with a law against discrediting the armed forces, few others dared make.        被孤立于莫斯科权力核心之外的普里戈任则越来越多地求助于他的舆论阵地:社交媒体。他开始向俄罗斯民众直接喊话,所传递的信息也愈发政治化。他开始公开批评,在一个法律禁止抹黑军队的国家,很少有人敢这样做。
        What had once been sharp-tongued trolling of the Russian brass over time turned into regular eruptions of bile.        随着时间推移,他对俄罗斯高层的尖酸嘲讽逐渐变成了频繁泄愤。
        “You stinking beasts, what are you doing? You swine!” he said in one recording in late May. “Get your asses out of your offices, which you were given to protect this country.’’        “你们这些恶臭的混蛋到底在干什么?一群猪猡!”他在5月底的一份录音中说道。“滚出你们的办公室吧,你们的职务本来是要保家卫国的。”
        He went on to lambast the Russian defense leadership for “sitting on their big asses smeared with expensive creams” and to say the Russian people had every right to ask questions of them. He posted gruesome images of Wagner soldiers killed in action. He gave ultimatums about pulling his troops out of Bakhmut. He even took what was widely viewed as a swipe at Mr. Putin, without naming him, with a reference to a “grandpa’’ who might be “a complete jackass.‘’        他还猛烈抨击了俄罗斯国防领导人,说他们“安居高位的巨大屁股上涂满了昂贵的润肤霜”,还说俄罗斯人民有权发出质问。他将瓦格纳阵亡士兵的血腥照片公诸于世。他发出最后通牒,要求让瓦格纳撤离巴赫穆特。他甚至提及某位可能是个“大蠢材”的“老头子”,虽然没有指名道姓,但这被广泛视为对普京的抨击。
        Kremlinologists were puzzled as to why Mr. Putin did not just sweep the Wagner chief aside, or intervene and rein him in; some analysts suggested that he favored competing factions operating underneath him, with none gaining too much power. Others wondered if the Russian leader had become too isolated to solve the problem or simply did not have sufficient control.        令克里姆林宫问题专家感到困惑的是,普京为何没有将这位瓦格纳头子扫地出门,或是出手将他控制住;一些分析人士认为,普京乐于看到手下不同派系之间相互斗争,这样就没有谁能掌握太多的权力。还有人则怀疑,这位俄罗斯领导人是否因过于闭目塞听而无法解决这个问题,或者只是因为他的控制权还没大到那个地步。
        Mr. Prigozhin’s forces captured Bakhmut at the end of May and soon after departed the battlefield, accusing the Russian military of mining the road they used to leave and briefly apprehending a Russian lieutenant colonel on the way out. That left Mr. Prigozhin newly vulnerable. Wagner was no longer needed to finish off a battle that had been played up by the Russian media.        普里戈任的部队在5月底占领巴赫穆特,不久就撤出战场,指责俄军在他们惯常的撤退路线上布置地雷,还在撤离时一度逮捕了一名俄军中校。这一切都让普里戈任更加脆弱。俄罗斯不再需要瓦格纳来打完这场被国内媒体大肆渲染的战争了。
        By June, his isolation became palpable.        到6月,他的孤立处境已经显而易见。
        Mr. Prigozhin signaled a rift with the Ministry of Defense over his military catering contracts, which have helped fuel his wealth and influence for more than a decade. In a publicized letter to Mr. Shoigu dated June 6, Mr. Prigozhin said the food he had supplied to Russian military bases and institutions since 2006 had amounted to a total of 147 billion rubles — $1.74 billion — a figure that is impossible to verify. Now, he complained, “high-level people” were trying to force him to accept companies associated with them as his suppliers. He also said a new system of “loyal suppliers”threatened his cost structure and could deliver a blow to his business reputation.        普里戈任暗示他与国防部在军队供餐合同问题上出现分歧,十几年来,这些合同帮助他积累了大量财富和影响力。在一封日期为6月6日的致绍伊古的公开信中,普里戈任称,自2006年以来,他向俄罗斯军事基地及机构供应的食品总价值为1470亿卢布(约合17.4亿美元),这一数字无法得到核实。如今他抱怨称,“高层人士”试图强迫他接受与他们有关系的公司作为供应商。他还表示,由“亲信供应商”构成的新体系威胁到了他的成本结构,并可能损害他的商业声誉。
        His desperation seemed to be growing.        他的绝望似乎与日俱增。
        On June 10, one of Mr. Shoigu’s deputies announced that all formations fighting outside the Russian military’s formal ranks would need to sign a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry by July 1.        6月10日,绍伊古的一名副手宣布,所有不在俄军正式编制内作战的部队都必须在7月1日前与俄罗斯国防部签署合同。
        Mr. Prigozhin initially refused, but then Mr. Putin backed Mr. Shoigu’s plan. In the days that followed, Mr. Prigozhin released several audio and video messages showing what appeared to be attempts to reach a deal on his terms.        普里戈任起初十分抗拒,但后来普京支持了绍伊古的计划。在随后的几天里,普里戈任发布了数条音频和视频信息,似乎想通过讨价还价达成协议。
        In one video, published on June 16, he shows himself delivering a “contract” to the Ministry of Defense in Moscow, but a receptionist behind a caged booth quickly closes the window in his face.        在6月16日发布的一段视频中,他做出向莫斯科的俄罗斯国防部递交“合约”的样子,但密闭隔间里的一名接待员当着他的面一把关上了窗户。
        In the days before he led Saturday’s uprising, Mr. Prigozhin began expressing feelings of resignation, saying that none of the problems plaguing the Russian military would be fixed. He also talked about the nation rising up, saying that Mr. Shoigu should be executed and suggesting that the relatives of those killed in the war would exact their revenge on incompetent officials.        在周六他带头叛乱的前几天,普里戈任流露出颓丧情绪,称俄罗斯军队的顽疾根本无法得到解决。他还谈到了民族崛起,称绍伊古应被处决,并暗示在战争中失去至亲的民众将对无能官僚进行报复。
        “Their mothers, their wives, their children will come and eat them alive when the time comes,” he said in a June 6 video interview, suggesting there might be a "popular revolt.”        “时机成熟时,他们的母亲、妻子和孩子会将这些人生吞活剥,”他在6月6日的一段视频采访中表示,暗示可能出现“民变”。
        He added, “I can tell you, honestly, I think we have only about two to three months before the executions.”        他还说,“我可以实话告诉你,我相信只要再过两三个月,这些人的大限就要到了。”
                
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