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| Just three days ago, the Wagner mercenary group was advancing on Moscow, and Vladimir V. Putin’s two-decade rule over Russia appeared under threat. Then, in a stunning twist, the uprising’s leader, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, said that he was halting the insurrection and going into exile. | 就在三天前，瓦格纳雇佣兵集团还在向莫斯科进军，眼看就要威胁普京在俄罗斯长达20年的统治。此后发生了出人意料的转折，这场叛变的领导人叶夫根尼·V·普里戈任宣布他将停止叛乱，并流亡海外。 |
| As the dust settles, here is a look at what we know about the situation. | 尘埃落定之后，以下是我们了解到的情况。 |
| What will happen to Mr. Prigozhin? | 普里戈任会有怎样的下场？ |
| As of Tuesday morning, the most recent photographs to be released of Mr. Prigozhin showed him smiling at onlookers on Saturday as he was driven away from Rostov-on-Don, the southwestern Russian city that Wagner had claimed control over. | 截至周二上午，关于普里戈任最新的公开影像显示，他在周六当天驱车离开顿河畔罗斯托夫，并对围观者微笑。瓦格纳曾宣布占领这座俄罗斯西南部城市。 |
| At the time those pictures were taken, he was expected to go to Belarus under a deal announced by that country’s authoritarian leader, President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, a loyal ally of Mr. Putin’s. | 拍摄这些照片之时，他正准备按照白俄罗斯威权领导人卢卡申科总统宣布的协议前往该国，卢卡申科是普京的忠实盟友。 |
| On Tuesday afternoon, Mr. Lukashenko said that Mr. Prigozhin — a billionaire and himself a onetime friend of Mr. Putin’s — had arrived in the country. | 卢卡申科周二下午表示，普里戈任——一位亿万富翁，曾经也是普京好友——已经抵达白俄罗斯。 |
| Yet much is unknown about the immediate future of Mr. Prigozhin, not least where he will live, whether he will be free to travel within or outside Belarus and how much clout he will be able to wield as a political figure in Russia. | 但关于普里戈任眼下有何打算，还有很多不确定，比如他将住在何处，在白俄罗斯境内外有没有人身自由，以及他作为俄罗斯的政治人物能发挥多大的影响力。 |
| Perhaps most important, it is not clear how his relations with Moscow — and with Mr. Putin — will evolve. Some previous Putin allies who fell afoul of him have faced the wrath of Russia’s security services. | 他跟莫斯科——以及普京——的关系将如何演变，可能是最重要的问题。之前曾与普京发生冲突的一些前盟友都受到了俄罗斯安全部门的打压。 |
| It is also unclear what, if any, role Mr. Prigozhin will be allowed to play as leader of the Wagner Group, whose fighters were also offered entry into Belarus. | 普里戈任是否还会被允许以瓦格纳集团领导人的身份或其他任何身份行事，目前还不得而知，白俄罗斯已经提出该集团的武装人员可以进入该国。 |
| What will happen to Wagner? | 瓦格纳未来会怎样？ |
| Fomenting rebellion would normally be perilous in Mr. Putin’s Russia, where even modest acts of dissent are harshly punished. But the Russian authorities said on Tuesday that charges of “armed mutiny” against Mr. Prigozhin and the mercenaries were being dropped as part of the arrangement with Mr. Lukashenko. | 在普京治下的俄罗斯，即便是温和的异议之举也会受到严厉惩罚，煽动叛乱的后果通常很严重。但俄罗斯当局周二表示，根据与卢卡申科达成的协议，针对普里戈任和雇佣军的“武装叛变”指控将被撤销。 |
| On Sunday, the Russian state news media reported that Wagner troops had returned to their camps in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region, which Russia largely occupies and illegally annexed last fall. At the same time, Mr. Lukashenko said on Tuesday that he was offering Wagner fighters a base to use in Belarus, although it was unclear on what terms the offer had been made, how many of the mercenaries would accept it or what they would do there. | 周日，俄罗斯官媒报道称，瓦格纳部队已经返回了他们在乌克兰东部卢甘斯克地区的驻地。去年秋天，俄罗斯占领并非法吞并了该地区的大部分领土。同时，卢卡申科周二还宣称，他会在白俄罗斯为瓦格纳士兵提供一处基地，不过目前还不清楚此提议的条件是什么，有多少雇佣兵会接受，以及他们将在基地中做什么。 |
| Mr. Putin had said before the attempted uprising that all irregular units fighting in Ukraine, including Wagner, would have to sign contracts with Russia’s Defense Ministry, a move that Mr. Prigozhin cited this weekend as a key motivation behind his rebellion. | 在叛乱发生前，普京曾要求包括瓦格纳在内的所有在乌克兰作战的非正规部队都必须与俄罗斯国防部签订合同，普里戈任周末曾表示这是他叛变的一个关键原因。 |
| Given that, it is unclear how quickly — or even whether — Russia’s military can absorb them into its ranks. It calls into question the willingness of Wagner fighters to serve and potentially die under the new, official structure. | 有鉴于此，尚不确定俄军能以多快的速度吸纳这些士兵，连招安能否实现都是个问题。瓦格纳士兵是否愿意接受新的官方编制，冒上可能战死的风险仍是未知数。 |
| Only when they return to combat in Ukraine will it be possible to assess their continuing morale and drive. Some Ukrainian troops have considered them the best-equipped, most motivated and most tactically aggressive of all the Russian forces. | 只有当他们重回乌克兰战场，才可能看清他们继续战斗的士气和决心。有乌克兰部队认为，他们是俄军中装备最精良、战斗最积极、战术上也最具威胁性的部队。 |
| And Ukraine is just part of Wagner’s portfolio. The group operates in the Central African Republic, Mali and Sudan, and in each country it has offered military assistance in exchange for payment, partly in terms of access to the countries’ natural resources. In Mali, evidence suggests that they participated in a massacre of civilians last year, while in the Central African Republic they are accused by The Sentry, a Washington-based group that seeks to expose corruption, of possible war crimes. | 瓦格纳参与的战争远不仅限于乌克兰。该集团还在中非共和国、马里和苏丹活动，用军事援助以换取报酬，包括获取这些国家的自然资源。在马里，有证据表明他们去年参与了一场针对平民的屠杀，而致力于揭露腐败的华盛顿“哨兵”组织指控他们可能在中非共和国犯下了战争罪。 |
| Wagner appeared to operate in Africa on the Kremlin’s behalf, and it is unclear whether Wagner will now press ahead with its contracts on the continent or pull back. | 瓦格纳似乎代表俄罗斯在非洲开展业务，目前尚不清楚该集团会否继续执行在非洲大陆的合同，或是将会退出。 |
| Is Mr. Putin stronger or weaker? | 普京是更强了还是更弱了？ |
| There is no shortage of experts who say that Mr. Putin is a diminished figure because of the uprising, which was perhaps the most public security threat of his rule of more than two decades. Analysts note that, for a leader who strives to project toughness, his vow on Saturday to bring the mercenaries to justice, only to speedily cut a deal in which they will apparently avoid prosecution, made for a noteworthy climb down. | 有不少专家表示，由于这场兵变，普京的影响力正在减弱。这可能是普京执政20多年来面临的最严重的公共安全威胁。分析人士指出，对于一个努力表现出强硬态度的领导人来说，他在周六誓言要将雇佣军绳之以法，结果却迅速达成了协议，雇佣军看起来可以避免被起诉，这是一个值得注意的让步。 |
| But since then, Mr. Putin has tried to project unity and strength. On Monday, he billed Mr. Prigozhin as a traitor and said that the Russian state had “at all levels” consolidated against the uprising. On Tuesday, Mr. Putin thanked the Russian military for having “essentially stopped a civil war.” | 但自那以来，普京一直试图展现团结和力量。周一，他称普里戈任是叛徒，并表示俄罗斯政府“各个层面”都在联合起来反对兵变。周二，普京感谢俄罗斯军方“实际上阻止了一场内战”。 |
| It is not clear how any potential weakening of Mr. Putin’s grip on power might manifest, or how quickly and in what form any challenge to his authority could come. | 目前尚不清楚普京可能的权力削弱将会如何体现，也不清楚对他权威的挑战会以多快的速度或何种形式出现。 |
| He is judged in part by Russia’s success, or lack thereof, on the battlefield in Ukraine, and the ability of Moscow’s troops to withstand a Ukrainian counteroffensive that started this month will provide a test of his authority over the military. But Mr. Putin’s principal audience is domestic. | 人们对普京的评价部分取决于俄罗斯在乌克兰战场上成功与否，而莫斯科军队能否抵挡乌克兰本月开始的反攻，将是对普京军事权威的一次考验。但普京的主要受众是国内民众。 |
| One analyst, Abbas Gallyamov, a former Kremlin speechwriter turned political consultant, said the speech on Monday was an “extremely weak performance.” | 分析人士阿巴斯·加利亚莫夫曾是克里姆林宫的演讲撰稿人，后来成为政治顾问。他说，普京周一的演讲“表现极其疲弱”。 |
| That said, after a two-day period during which every hour appeared to deepen Mr. Putin’s peril this weekend, the coming days and weeks could give him opportunities to reassert an aura of stability. | 话虽如此，在周末两天时间里，每时每刻，普京的危机似乎都在加深，但未来几天和几周，他可能有机会重新树立稳定的光环。 |
| That certainly seemed to be his aim on Tuesday, when he delivered a grandly choreographed speech to soldiers and security troops standing at attention on the Kremlin grounds — a rare public appearance that included a red-carpet arrival. | 这似乎就是普京周二的目标，当天，他向在克里姆林宫前立正站好的士兵和安全部队发表了一篇精心编排的演讲。这是一次罕见的公开露面，地上还铺了红毯。 |
| How will it affect the war in Ukraine? | 它将如何影响乌克兰战争？ |
| At the very least, the Wagner Group has faced a turbulent few days. And for Ukraine’s military, whose counteroffensive is gathering steam, that can’t hurt. | 至少，瓦格纳集团这几天经历了动荡。这对于正在为反攻聚集力量的乌克兰军队来说不是坏事。 |
| The question is how much Kyiv can capitalize on any signs of wavering within the Wagner group’s morale. The fact that some Wagner troops will be brought under Russian military command starting July 1 could shake-up the organization, at least in the short term. | 问题是，基辅能在多大程度上利用瓦格纳集团内部士气动摇的迹象。从7月1日开始，部分瓦格纳部队将转由俄罗斯军方指挥，这一事实至少在短期内可能会撼动该组织。 |
| Then there is the question of what happens to the Wagner fighters’ battlefield strength. The mercenaries led the way for Russia in months of fighting for the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, suffering tens of thousands of casualties along the way. | 接下来的问题是，瓦格纳战士的战场实力会发生什么变化。在争夺乌克兰东部城市巴赫穆特的长达数月的战斗中，这些雇佣军作为俄罗斯的突前力量，全过程伤亡数万人。 |
| It remains to be seen whether that can be reproduced within Russia’s armed forces, who are generally paid less than the mercenary fighters. | 这种情况能否在俄罗斯武装部队中重现还有待观察，俄罗斯武装部队的薪酬通常低于雇佣兵。 |
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