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| China dominates the global sale of solar panels and has caught up with Japan as the world’s largest car exporter. It is even gaining in the worldwide sale of low-tech products like shoes. | 中国主导着全球太阳能电池板的销售，并已赶上日本，成为全球最大的汽车出口国。它甚至在鞋类等低技术产品的全球销售方面也在增长。 |
| Now Beijing is weighing whether to deploy its considerable power as an exporter to try to stabilize an economy laboring under distinctly homegrown problems — a real estate crisis and weak spending by consumers still cautious after nearly three years of stringent pandemic restrictions. The decision could reverberate throughout the global economy and provoke a backlash among trading partners that are already under siege by China’s exports. | 现在，北京正在权衡是否动用其作为出口国的巨大权力，设法稳定正明显受到国内问题困扰的经济——一场房地产危机，以及在近三年的严格疫情限制措施后，消费者不愿花钱导致的消费支出疲软。这一决定可能会在全球经济中引起反响，并在已经受到中国出口冲击的贸易伙伴中引发反弹。 |
| “For the second-largest economy in the world to rely on the rest of the world to bolster its growth would not be a good portent for global economic prospects,” said Eswar Prasad, an economist at Cornell University. | 康奈尔大学经济学家埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德表示：“对于世界第二大经济体来说，依赖世界其他地区来支撑自己的增长，对全球经济前景来说不是一个好兆头。” |
| Top Chinese government officials have said they plan to invest in upgrading industries and in promoting more domestic commerce, and not just flood foreign markets with manufactured goods like electric vehicles. But economists say the experience of countries with consumer spending problems suggests that a wave of Chinese exports is likely. | 中国政府高层官员表示，他们计划投资产业升级和促进国内商业的发展，而不仅仅是让电动汽车等制成品涌入国外市场。但经济学家表示，其他存在消费者支出问题的国家的经验表明，中国可能会出现一波出口热潮。 |
| Relying on exports to juice growth is a tried-and-true formula for China. And Beijing has a powerful lever in its currency, the renminbi, which it has allowed to decline about 7 percent against the dollar since mid-January. That makes the relative cost of China’s goods cheaper to buyers in other countries. | 对中国来说，依靠出口来推动增长是行之有效的方法。而且，北京对人民币有着巨大的影响力，自1月中旬以来，它已经允许人民币兑美元汇率下跌了约7%。这使得中国商品的相对成本对其他国家的买家来说更便宜。 |
| “The normal way for a country to get out of a real estate slump is to export your way out,” said Brad Setser, a former international economics policymaker in the Obama and Biden administrations who is now at the Council on Foreign Relations. | “一个国家摆脱房地产衰退的通常方式是出口，”曾在奥巴马和拜登政府担任国际经济政策制定者、现就职于外交关系委员会的布拉德·塞策说。 |
| China’s property problems are entrenched. A glut of vacant and unfinished housing has led to a steep fall in construction, previously the country’s biggest industry. Developers are drowning in debt. On Friday, two Chinese property companies halted some payments on their overseas debt, and the shares of developers have sold off in recent days. An erosion in prices for homes, the main asset for Chinese households, has made hundreds of millions of households across the country more cautious about spending money at all. | 中国的房地产问题根深蒂固。大量空置和未完工的房屋导致建筑业急剧下滑，而建筑业曾是该国最大的行业。开发商为债务所困。上周五，两家中国房地产公司暂停偿还部分海外债务，而开发商的股票在最近几天遭到抛售。作为中国家庭主要资产的住房价格下跌，让全国数亿家庭在花钱方面变得更加谨慎。 |
| At the same time, local governments, which spent heavily during the pandemic, have sunk so far in debt that they are struggling to provide health care for residents and pay the salaries and pensions of civil servants. | 与此同时，地方政府在疫情期间花费巨大，现在负债累累，在为居民提供医保，以及支付公务员的工资和养老金方面都很困难。 |
| Thailand and other Southeast Asian nations exported their way out of economic trouble after the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and 1998. Ireland and Spain did the same after the global banking collapse in 2008 and 2009. Greece did so after Europe’s financial troubles in the following years. | 在1997年和1998年亚洲金融危机后，泰国和其他东南亚国家通过出口摆脱了经济困境。爱尔兰和西班牙在2008年和2009年全球银行业崩溃后也采取了同样的做法。随后几年里，欧洲金融危机爆发后，希腊也是如此。 |
| Yet China could invite political blowback from countries worried that a flood of exports could erode their own economies, costing workers their jobs and companies their market share. | 然而，中国可能会招致一些国家的政治反弹，这些国家担心大量商品的涌入可能会侵蚀本国经济，导致工人失业，企业失去市场份额。 |
| In Europe, a key market for China for a wide variety of goods, officials and business leaders have signaled that they are wary of China’s surging trade surplus because they are already struggling to cope with an influx of Chinese cars. And China’s close partnership with Russia, a country now reviled across much of Europe for its invasion of Ukraine, has caused alarm in Europe about the continent’s reliance on China. | 欧洲是中国多种商品的重要市场。在欧洲，官员和商界领袖已经表示，他们对中国激增的贸易顺差感到担忧，因为他们已经在艰难应对中国汽车的涌入。中国与俄罗斯的密切伙伴关系，已在欧洲引起了对欧洲大陆依赖中国的警觉。俄罗斯目前因入侵乌克兰而受到欧洲大部分国家的谴责。 |
| China is stepping up exports instead to Southeast Asia, which does further processing of these goods and sends them on to Europe and the West, said Deborah Elms, the executive director of the Asian Trade Center, a trade consulting firm in Singapore. | 新加坡贸易咨询公司亚洲贸易中心的执行董事黛博拉·埃尔姆斯说，中国正在加大对东南亚的出口，东南亚对这些商品进行进一步加工，然后将它们运往欧洲和西方。 |
| But there is also a practical challenge for China: Its trade surplus in manufactured goods is so large — equal to a 10th of the entire Chinese economy, by Mr. Setser’s calculations — that it may be hard to expand it further. | 但中国也面临着一个实际的挑战：它在制成品方面的贸易顺差如此之大（根据塞策的计算，相当于整个中国经济的十分之一），因此可能很难进一步扩大。 |
| According to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, China accounts for almost a third of the entire world’s manufacturing output. | 根据联合国工业发展组织的数据，中国的制造业产出几乎占到全球的三分之一。 |
| Further growth may be especially hard now because some of China’s biggest export markets are showing signs of weakness after interest rate increases to fight inflation. | 实现进一步增长在当下看来可能尤其困难，因为中国最大的一些出口市场在为对抗通胀而加息后均出现疲软迹象。 |
| “The demand is weaker compared to that of last year,” said Zhou Shaopeng, a sales manager at a plastic pipe production company in Hebei Province. | “和去年比，需求弱一些，”河北省一家塑料管材公司的销售经理周少鹏（音）表示。 |
| But the recent slide in China’s currency could set off a rebound in exports. Government statements in recent weeks have emphasized plans to streamline commerce within China’s borders, and not just exports. | 但近期的人民币贬值可能带来出口反弹。政府最近几周的公告都在强调优化中国境内贸易，而不仅限于出口。 |
| “China is realizing how to put these two together, how to integrate them — maybe this is more important than just foreign trade,” said Zhan Yubo, director of the Western Economics Research Office at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, a government advisory institution. | “中国正在搞清楚如何将这二者结合起来，如何将之整合可能比只靠对外贸易更重要，”政府咨询机构上海社会科学院西方经济学研究室主任詹宇波表示。 |
| While increasing exports poses political risks, experts said, there is one area where China has room to expand its overseas sales: new technologies. China has quadrupled its car exports in just two years, to more than $6 billion per month, through its clout in electric vehicles. The value of its car exports passed smartphone exports for the first time last month. | 专家表示，虽然增加出口会带来政治风险，但中国在一个领域仍有扩大海外销售的空间，那就是新技术。凭借在电动汽车领域的实力，中国的汽车出口在短短两年内翻了两番，月均出口额超过60亿美元。上个月，中国汽车出口额首次超过了智能手机。 |
| Two decades of heavy investments in electric cars and other innovations are producing rising sales and growing employment, as can be seen at factories on the eastern outskirts of Shanghai. | 20年来，中国在电动汽车和其他创新领域的大笔投入，带来了销售上升和就业增长，上海东郊的工厂就是明证。 |
| Tesla has a vast factory in Shanghai and already exports large numbers of cars across Europe and Asia in addition to supplying the Chinese market. General Motors also has big factories in the city. Underpinning those operations is a dense web of suppliers. | 特斯拉在上海设立了一家巨型工厂，除供应中国市场外，还向欧洲和亚洲出口大量汽车。通用汽车也在上海拥有大型工厂。支撑这些工厂业务的是一个密集的供应商网络。 |
| One of those companies, Kunyi Electronics Technology, which makes specialized tools for researchers working on autonomous cars, invested 45 percent of its revenues last year in research and development, said Chen Zhongming, its chief executive. The company has tripled employment in the past three years, to 450 people. | 为自动驾驶汽车研发人员制造专用工具的昆易电子就是其中一家供应商，公司总经理陈忠明表示，去年该公司将45%的收入都用于研发。过去三年，公司员工增加了两倍，达到450人。 |
| Domestic and foreign automakers in China, he said, are now “willing to put much more of their revenues into research and development.” | 他说，国内外的汽车制造商现在都“愿意将更多收入用于研发”。 |
| SinoFuelCell, a Shanghai company that makes hydrogen-based propulsion systems mostly for freight trucks, has focused on reducing costs to make fuel cells more competitive with internal combustion engines. | 主要为货运卡车制造氢动力系统的上海神力科技一直专注于降低成本，使燃料电池相对于内燃机更具竞争力。 |
| “One guy used to take care of one machine — now, one guy can take care of two machines,” said David Dai, the general manager, as he walked past a factory row of machines that assembled the fuel cells. “Next month, a robot will take care of six machines.” | “过去一个人负责一台机器，现在一个人可以管两台，”总经理戴威在走过一排组装燃料电池的机器时说。“下个月，一个机器人就可以管六台了。” |
| Green energy is another area where China is thriving. Its exports of solar panels have tripled in the past three years, to nearly $5 billion per month. Even though countries in the European Union, in North America and elsewhere are ramping up their own production, China’s exports are likely to continue growing, said Yan Qin, an energy analyst at the London Stock Exchange Group. | 绿色能源是中国正在蓬勃发展的另一个领域。过去三年里，中国的太阳能电池板出口增长了两倍，月均出口额达到近50亿美元。伦敦证券交易所集团分析师秦炎表示，尽管欧盟、北美和其他地区的国家都在提高产量，但中国的出口预计将继续增长。 |
| Experts at the World Bank and elsewhere have said China should try to shore up its domestic economy by strengthening health insurance, pensions and other aspects of the social safety net, so that Chinese households will feel more confident to spend money. | 世界银行和其他机构的专家表示，要提振国内经济，中国应着手加强医疗保险、养老和社会保障网其他方面的福利，这样中国家庭的消费信心才会提高。 |
| But that kind of shift would take time. For now, China is still sinking money into investments, including ever more roads and rail lines but also lots of factories. | 但这样的转变需要时间。目前，中国仍在把钱用于投资，包括建设更多公路铁路，以及许多工厂。 |
| “Investment creates jobs,” Mr. Zhan said. “Jobs create income and salaries, income and salaries will create consumption.” | “投资创造就业，”詹宇波说。“就业带来收入和工资，收入和工资又会创造消费。” |
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