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| I’ll confess that when Apple introduced its mixed-reality Vision Pro headsets on Monday, one of my first thoughts was: Man, that thing looks weird. |
| 我承认，苹果周一推出融合数码与现实世界的Vision Pro头戴设备时，我最初的一个想法是：哇，这东西看上去怪怪的。 |
| I wasn’t alone. On social media, the reaction to the Vision Pro was less than kind. Skeptics mocked the device’s snowboard-goggle-like appearance, its steep price tag ($3,500) and Apple’s lofty pitch about the “spatial computing” era its arrival heralded. There were comparisons to the robot WALL-E, and Twitter memes about people watching pornography in virtual reality. |
| 这样想的不只我一人。社交媒体上对Vision Pro的反应并不友好。怀疑者嘲笑该设备像滑雪板护目镜一样的外观、过高的定价（3500美元），还嘲笑苹果的高调宣传（公司称Vision Pro宣告着“空间计算”时代的到来）。有人拿它与机器人WALL-E做了比较，还有人在Twitter上编了观看虚拟现实色情作品的段子。 |
| I get it. I’ve been a virtual reality skeptic for years, and I have long wondered why the technology hasn’t gone mainstream, even as headset quality has improved. I was always dubious about Mark Zuckerberg’s pitch for the metaverse, which had “personal conquest” vibes more so than “actual market demand” vibes. And if you had asked me before Monday’s announcement whether I thought Apple’s mixed-reality headset signified the beginning of a huge, earthshaking platform shift, on the order of the original iPhone’s arrival, I would have said no. |
| 我懂。多年来，我始终对虚拟现实持怀疑态度，我一直想知道，在头戴设备质量不断提高的情况下，为什么这个技术还没有成为主流。我总是对扎克伯格宣传的元宇宙持怀疑态度，那东西带有更多的“个人征服”的感觉，而非“实际市场需求”。如果有人在周一的发布会之前问我，怎么看苹果的这个混合现实头戴设备，它是否像第一代iPhone的到来那样，标志着一个巨大的、翻天覆地的平台转变的开始，我会给予否定的回答。 |
| But after seeing Apple demonstrate the Vision Pro on Monday — and reading the generally positive reviews from folks who have tested it — I now think it could be a big deal, and possibly even the first hint of a revolutionary new computing platform. |
| 但看了苹果周一的Vision Pro演示，读了试用者普遍给予的正面评价后，我现在觉得这可能是件大事，甚至可能是一个革命性的新计算平台的最初迹象。 |
| There are plenty of reasons the Vision Pro could flop. It could be too expensive, too ugly, too isolating. Persuading developers to build good, useful smartphone apps is easier than persuading them to build apps for a device you have to strap to your head, for an audience that has never really materialized at a meaningful scale. And Apple could discover what Meta has found so far with its forays into productivity-based V.R. apps — that there just aren’t a ton of people in the world who are interested in reading their emails in V.R. |
| 有很多让Vision Pro可能失败的原因。人们也许觉得它太贵、太难看、太让人与世隔绝。说服开发人员开发好的、有用的智能手机应用程序比说服他们为必须绑在用户头上的设备编写应用程序要容易得多，这类设备的用户从未真正达到过有明显意义的规模。苹果可能会发现Meta在进军基于生产力的虚拟现实（简称VR）应用程序时到目前为止已发现的东西：世界上没有多少人有兴趣在VR中读电子邮件。 |
| But I can’t dismiss the possibility that despite its limitations — such as the need to tote around a connected battery pack — the Vision Pro could be a hit. |
| 但我不能排除这样一种可能性：尽管用起来有局限性——例如需要随身携带相关电池组——但Vision Pro可能会大获成功。 |
| Is it expensive? Yes. But so are lots of first-generation gadgets, and the “Pro” in the name suggests that a less expensive, more consumer-oriented model may be on the way. |
| 它贵吗？是的。但许多设备的第一代产品都贵。该产品名字中的“Pro”暗示，一个不太贵、更面向消费者的型号也许即将到来。 |
| Is it fun and impressive to use? Early testers seem to think so, although they haven’t had much time with it, and they’re a fairly excitable group. The real test will come when the devices are shipped to users (early next year, according to Apple) and people start working them into their daily routines. |
| 用起来令人快乐且印象深刻吗？产品的早期试用者似乎这么认为，尽管他们并没有用太长的时间，而且他们是个相当容易对新东西兴奋的群体。真正的检验将是在用户能买到设备的时候——明年年初（据苹果公司的说法），也就是人们开始将其融入日常生活的时候。 |
| Part of my open-mindedness to the Vision Pro, I admit, is due to a kind of tech columnist PTSD. In 2013, before the first Apple Watch was released, I wrote a column confidently declaring that smartwatches were a dumb idea. I mocked their looks, dismissed them as expensive toys and boldly proclaimed that Apple would be crazy to invest heavily in a product category that I couldn’t imagine resonating beyond young, moneyed Silicon Valley nerds. (Apple is now the No. 1 watch brand in the world, and it sells an estimated 40 million watches every year. I wear one, as do many of my friends and relatives.) |
| 我承认，我愿意对Vision Pro持开放态度，部分原因是技术专栏作家的某种“一朝被蛇咬、十年怕井绳”。2013年，我曾在第一代Apple Watch发布前写了一篇文章，自信地宣称智能手表是个愚蠢想法。我嘲笑它们的外观，将它们斥之为昂贵的玩具，并大胆地宣称，苹果大笔投资这类产品是疯了，除了年轻、有钱的硅谷书呆子外，我无法想像谁会用它。（苹果现在是世界头号手表品牌，每年估计卖出4000万块。我现在就戴着一块，我的许多朋友和亲戚也都戴着。） |
| Obviously, my Apple Watch prediction was extremely, comically wrong, for a few reasons. |
| 显然，我对Apple Watch的预测是个极其可笑的错误。原因有以下几个。 |
| First, I underestimated Apple’s ability to expand a market, turning a niche product category into a mainstream one. In 2013, there were other smartwatches on the market, and none of them had been huge hits, so I came to the conclusion that the Apple Watch wouldn’t be a huge hit, either. I looked at the bulky, ugly aesthetics of existing smartwatches and concluded that the kinds of people who were willing to wear them on their wrists every day — nerds like me — weren’t a big enough market to matter. |
| 第一，我低估了苹果将小众产品变成主流产品的市场拓展能力。2013年时，市场上也有其他智能手表，但买的人都不多，所以我得出结论，买Apple Watch的人也不会多。我看着当时市场上智能手表笨重、难看的样子，认定那些愿意每天将它们戴在手腕上的人——像我这样的书呆子——形不成一个足以将产品做大的市场。 |
| But I neglected to remember that Apple is Apple, and that it has repeatedly demonstrated that it can, through sheer force of will, turn a niche product for nerds into a thing that everyone wants. |
| 但我忽略了苹果之所以是苹果，是因为它一再证明它能全凭意志力，将书呆子喜欢的小众产品变成每个人都想要的东西。 |
| That’s a testament to the company’s famous product and marketing prowess. And it’s part of why I’m reluctant to dismiss the Vision Pro’s chances. |
| 那是对这家公司大名鼎鼎的产品开发和营销能力的见证，也是我不愿轻易排除Vision Pro成功机会的部分原因。 |
| Sure, there are good virtual and mixed-reality headsets out there, and even some decent apps for them. But those headsets aren’t made by Apple, and they haven’t been seamlessly integrated into the entire Apple ecosystem the way that Vision Pro will be. Having all of your iPhone contacts, iMessages and iOS settings integrated into a mixed-reality headset from the moment you turn it on could mean the difference between a device you actually use every day, and a novelty toy you shove into a closet after a few weeks. |
| 的确，市场上有几款不错的虚拟现实和混合现实头戴设备，甚至还有一些不错的应用程序。但这些设备不是苹果制造的，它们也不像Vision Pro那样，将无缝地集成到整个苹果生态系统中来。能在将其打开的那一刻，就把iPhone上所有的通信录、iMessages，以及iOS设置集成到这个混合现实头戴设备上可能意味着一个分水岭：这是个每天实际使用的设备呢，还是用几次后就扔进贮藏室的新玩具？ |
| Another error I made with the Apple Watch back in 2013 was that I forgot that human behavior is not fixed, and that our ideas of what is considered fashionable and socially acceptable change all the time in response to new technologies. |
| 2013年时，我写Apple Watch的文章犯的另一个错误是，我忘了人类行为不是固定不变的，我们对什么被视作时尚、什么是社会可接受的东西的想法总是在随着新技术的出现而变化。 |
| Back then, part of what I was reacting to was a social norm. At the time, it might have been considered rude to glance at your watch during a meeting, or while having dinner with your family. But a decade later, that action no longer registers (to me, at least) as inappropriate, because so many people now have Apple Watches that many people have developed new norms around it. |
| 我当时部分是在对一种社会规范做出反应。那时候，在开会期间或与家人共进晚餐时，时不时看手表可能被认为不礼貌。但十年后，这种行为（至少对我而言）不再被认为不合适，因为现在有Apple Watch的人这么多，许多人已围绕它形成了新的规范。 |
| Now, we assume that people who check their watches at dinner are probably trying to avoid pulling out their phones, which would be ruder and more disruptive. In other words, mass adoption killed the taboo. |
| 我们现在的假设是，那些晚餐时看手表的人也许是在尽量避免看手机，那会更没礼貌、更打搅他人。换句话说，用的人多了，以前的禁忌就不存在了。 |
| The same thing could happen with mixed-reality headsets. Sure, you might feel self-conscious putting on a Vision Pro today. But a few years from now, if a third of your co-workers are joining Zoom calls with their headsets, and you see people watching V.R. movies on every flight you take, it might not feel so dumb. |
| 同样的事情也可能发生在混合现实头戴设备上。当然，今天戴上Vision Pro可能会让人感到不自在。但在今后几年里，如果你有三分之一的同事戴着这个设备来参加Zoom会议，你每坐飞机时都看到有人看VR电影的话，你可能就不会觉得这个设备傻里傻气了。 |
| Apple has a knack for entering a product category at just the right time. The iPhone wasn’t the first smartphone in 2007, or even the first touch-screen smartphone. The iPad wasn’t the first tablet. But in both cases, the company brought excitement and sex appeal to products that hadn’t previously had it. Apple let other companies make some of the expensive mistakes, and it focused on making a great product. |
| 苹果有在恰当的时间进入某个产品类型的本领。2007年时，iPhone并不是第一款智能手机，甚至不是第一款触摸屏智能手机。iPad也不是第一款平板电脑。但就这两类产品而言，苹果都给它们带来了以前未曾有过的兴奋和性感。苹果让其他公司先犯一些代价高昂的错误，然后集中力量打造出色产品。 |
| The same thing could happen with Apple and the Vision Pro. Meta, Magic Leap and other companies have plowed billions of dollars into basic research and development for virtual and mixed reality headsets, learning from the failures of earlier devices like Google Glass. They’ve improved many of the device components, and the actual headsets are now more attractive. But they haven’t had a huge commercial hit. |
| 同样的事情也可能发生在苹果的Vision Pro上。Meta、Magic Leap和其他公司已在虚拟现实和混合现实头戴设备的基础研究和开发上投入了数十亿美元，这些公司从早期设备（如谷歌眼镜）的失败中吸取了教训，对许多地方进行了改进，让现在的头戴设备更具吸引力。但它们还没有在商业上取得巨大成功。 |
| That may be because virtual and augmented reality are fundamentally bad ideas, and the market for these devices may be destined to remain small. But it could be that the market just needed Apple to arrive. A few years from now, if you’re reading this on your Vision Pro, or in an Apple device attached directly to your corneas, don’t say I didn’t warn you. |
| 这可能是因为，虚拟现实和增强现实从根本上来说不是好想法，因此这类设备的市场注定不会大。但也可能是这个市场需要苹果的到来。如果几年后，你正在用Vision Pro或用直接贴在你角膜上的Apple设备阅读这篇文章的话，别说我没有事先告诉你。 |
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