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| The World Bank said on Tuesday that the global economy remained in a “precarious state” and warned of sluggish growth this year and next as rising interest rates slow consumer spending and business investment, and threaten the stability of the financial system. |
| 世界银行周二表示，全球经济仍处于“不稳定状态”，并警告称今明两年经济将增长缓慢，因为利率上升减缓了消费者支出和企业投资，并威胁到金融体系的稳定。 |
| The bank’s tepid forecasts in its latest Global Economic Prospects report highlight the predicament that global policymakers face as they try to corral stubborn inflation by raising interest rates while grappling with the aftermath of the pandemic and continuing supply chain disruptions stemming from the war in Ukraine. |
| 世行在最新的《全球经济展望》报告中做出的温吞预测突显了全球政策制定者面临的困境，他们试图通过提高利率来遏制顽固的通胀，同时努力应对大流行的余波和乌克兰战争造成的供应链持续动荡。 |
| The World Bank projected that global growth would slow to 2.1 percent this year from 3.1 percent in 2022. That is slightly stronger than its forecast of 1.7 percent in January, but in 2024 output is now expected to rise to 2.4 percent, weaker than the bank’s previous prediction of 2.7 percent. |
| 世界银行预计今年全球经济增长将从2022年的3.1%放缓至2.1%。这略高于其1月预测的1.7%，但现在预计2024年产出将升至2.4%，低于世行先前预测的2.7%。 |
| “Rays of sunshine in the global economy we saw earlier in the year have been fading, and gray days likely lie ahead,” said Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist at the World Bank Group. |
| 世界银行集团副首席经济学家艾汉·科斯表示：“我们在今年早些时候看到的全球经济的缕缕阳光正在消退，前方的日子可能会很灰暗。” |
| Mr. Kose said that the world economy was experiencing a “sharp, synchronized global slowdown” and that 65 percent of countries would experience slower growth this year than last. A decade of poor fiscal management in low-income countries that relied on borrowed money is compounding the problem. According to the World Bank, 14 of 28 low-income countries are in debt distress or at a high risk of debt distress. |
| 科斯表示，世界经济正在经历“急剧而同步的全球放缓”，65%的国家今年的增长将低于去年。依赖借贷的低收入国家十年来的财政管理不善使问题更加复杂。根据世界银行的数据，28个低收入国家中有14个处于债务困境或面临陷入债务困境的高风险。 |
| Optimism about an economic rebound this year has been dampened by recent stress in the banking sectors in the United States and Europe, which resulted in the biggest bank failures since the 2008 financial crisis. Concerns about the health of the banking industry have prompted many lenders to pull back on providing credit to businesses and individuals, a phenomenon that the World Bank said was likely to further weigh down growth. |
| 美国和欧洲银行业最近的压力已经导致自2008年金融危机以来最大规模的银行倒闭，冲淡了今年经济反弹的乐观情绪。对银行业健康状况的担忧促使许多贷方停止向企业和个人提供信贷，世界银行表示，这种现象可能会进一步拖累经济增长。 |
| The bank also warned that rising borrowing costs in rich countries — including the United States, where overnight interest rates have topped 5 percent for the first time in 15 years — posed an additional headwind for the world’s poorest economies. |
| 该银行还警告，富裕国家的借贷成本上升给世界上最贫穷的经济体带来了额外的阻力，前者包括隔夜利率15年来首次超过5%的美国。 |
| The most vulnerable economies, the report warned, are facing greater risk of financial crises as a result of rising rates. Higher interest rates make it more expensive for developing countries to service their loan payments and, if their currencies depreciate, to import food. |
| 报告警告说，最脆弱的经济体因利率上升而面临更大的金融危机风险。更高的利率使发展中国家偿还贷款的成本更高，如果其货币贬值，进口食品的成本也更高。 |
| In addition to the risks posed by rising interest rates, the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine have combined to reverse decades of progress in global poverty reduction. The World Bank estimated on Tuesday that in 2024, incomes in the poorest countries would be 6 percent lower than in 2019. |
| 除了利率上升带来的风险外，大流行病以及乌克兰冲突的共同作用使全球减贫领域数十年来取得的进展倒退。世界银行周二估计，到2024年，最贫穷国家的收入将比2019年下降6%。 |
| “Emerging market and developing economies today are struggling just to cope — deprived of the wherewithal to create jobs and deliver essential services to their most vulnerable citizens,” the report said. |
| 报告称：“如今的新兴市场和发展中经济体只是在苦苦支撑，它们被剥夺了创造就业机会和向最弱势公民提供基本服务的资金。” |
| The World Bank sees widespread slowdowns in advanced economies, too. In the United States, it projects 1.1 percent growth this year and 0.8 percent in 2024. |
| 世界银行也看到发达经济体普遍放缓。在美国，它预计今年增长1.1%，2024年增长0.8%。 |
| China is a notable exception to that trend, and the reopening of its economy after years of strict Covid-19 lockdowns is propping up global growth. The bank projects that the Chinese economy will grow 5.6 percent this year and 4.6 percent next year. |
| 中国是这一趋势的一个明显例外，在经历了数年严格的新冠封锁之后，中国经济的重新开放正在支撑全球增长。该银行预计中国经济今年将增长5.6%，明年将增长4.6%。 |
| Inflation is expected to continue to moderate this year, but the World Bank expects that prices will remain above central bank targets in many countries throughout 2024. |
| 预计今年通胀将继续放缓，但世界银行预计，到2024年，许多国家的物价仍将高于央行目标。 |
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