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| Why Are Food Prices So High in Europe? |
| 欧洲的食品价格为何如此之高？ |
| Agricultural and energy costs are falling, but basic items remain stubbornly expensive for consumers. |
| 农业和能源成本正在下降，但对消费者来说，基本用品的价格仍然居高不下。 |
| It is the most basic of staple food items: sliced white bread. In Britain, the average price of a loaf was 28 percent higher in April, at 1.39 pounds, or $1.72, than it was a year earlier. |
| 切片白面包是最基本的主食。4月份，英国一条面包的平均价格比去年同期上涨了28%，达到1.39英镑（约合12元）。 |
| In Italy, the price of spaghetti and other pasta, a fixture of the Italian diet, has risen nearly 17 percent from the year before. In Germany, the European Union’s largest economy, cheese prices are nearly 40 percent higher than a year ago, and potatoes cost 14 percent more. |
| 在意大利，面条等面食是日常饮食中不可或缺的一部分，其价格比前一年上涨近17%。在欧盟最大的经济体德国，奶酪的价格比一年前上涨了近40%，土豆的价格上涨了14%。 |
| Throughout the European Union, consumer food prices were on average nearly 17 percent higher in April than a year earlier, a slight slowdown from the previous month, which set the fastest pace of growth in over two and a half decades. The situation is worse in Britain than in its Western European neighbors: Food and nonalcoholic drink prices were 19 percent higher, the quickest pace of annual food inflation in more than 45 years. By comparison, the annual rate of U.S. food inflation was 7.7 percent. |
| 在整个欧盟，4月的食品消费价格平均比去年同期上涨近17%，比起上个月创下的25年来最快增长速度有所放缓。英国的情况比西欧邻国更糟：食品和非酒精饮料的价格上涨了19%，这是45年来食品年度通胀最快的一次。相比之下，美国食品年通胀率为7.7%。 |
| Persistent food inflation is squeezing low-income households and troubling European politicians. (In Italy, the government held a meeting this month to discuss soaring pasta prices.) |
| 持续的食品通胀挤压着低收入家庭，也困扰着欧洲政界人士。（意大利政府本月召开了一次会议，讨论面食价格飙升的问题。） |
| At the same time, the major costs that go into making food products, including fuel, wheat and other agricultural commodities, have been falling in international markets for much of the past year — raising questions about why food prices for consumers remain so high in Europe. And with rising labor costs and the possibility of profiteering, food prices are unlikely to come down anytime soon. More broadly, rising prices could also put pressure on central banks to keep interest rates high, potentially restraining economic growth. |
| 与此同时，在过去一年的大部分时间里，生产食品的主要成本，包括燃料、小麦和其他农产品，在国际市场上一直下降，这令人们质疑欧洲消费者的食品价格为何仍然如此之高。考虑到劳动力成本的上升和牟取暴利的可能性，食品价格不太可能很快下降。从更广泛的角度来看，物价上涨也可能给各国央行带来维持高利率的压力，从而可能抑制经济增长。 |
| What is driving up food prices? |
| 是什么推高了食品价格？ |
| Behind the sticker price for a loaf of bread includes the costs for not only key ingredients but also processing, packaging, transport, wages, storage and company markups. |
| 一条面包的标价不仅包括关键原料的成本，还包括加工、包装、运输、工资、储存和公司加价的成本。 |
| A United Nations index of global food commodity prices, such as wheat, meat and vegetable oil, peaked in March 2022, immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is one of the largest grain producers. The war disrupted grain and oil production in the region and had global impact, too, worsening food crises in parts of East Africa and the Middle East. |
| 联合国全球粮食商品价格指数，如小麦、肉类和植物油，在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后不久的2022年3月达到峰值。乌克兰是最大的粮食生产国之一。战争扰乱了该地区的粮食和石油生产，并对全球产生了影响，加剧了东非和中东部分地区的粮食危机。 |
| But the worst was avoided, in part because of a deal to export grain from Ukraine. European wheat prices have declined about 40 percent since last May. Global vegetable oil prices are down about 50 percent. But there is still a ways to go: The United Nations’ food price index was 34 percent higher in April than its 2019 average. |
| 但最糟糕的情况得以避免，部分原因是达成了一项从乌克兰出口粮食的协议。自去年5月以来，欧洲小麦价格已经下跌了大约40%。全球植物油价格下跌了大约50%。但仍有很长的路要走：联合国4月的食品价格指数比2019年的平均水平高出34%。 |
| Aside from commodity prices, Europe has experienced particularly harsh increases in costs along the food supply chain. |
| 除了大宗商品价格，欧洲还经历了食品供应链成本的大幅上涨。 |
| Energy prices soared because the war forced Europe to rapidly replace Russian gas with new supplies, pushing up the costs of food production, transport and storage. |
| 能源价格飙升是因为战争迫使欧洲迅速用新的供应取代俄罗斯的天然气，推高了食品生产、运输和储存的成本。 |
| Though wholesale energy prices have fallen back down recently, retailers warn there’s a long lag — perhaps up to a year — before consumers will see the benefits of that because energy contracts were made months before, most likely reflecting those higher prices. |
| 尽管批发能源价格最近有所回落，但零售商警告，消费者要看到价格回落的好处还需要很长一段时间——可能长达一年——因为能源合同是在几个月前签订的，很可能反映了较高的价格。 |
| And the tight labor markets in Europe with high job vacancy rates and low levels of unemployment are forcing employers, including food companies, to push up wages to attract workers. This in turn drives up costs for businesses, including in the food sector. |
| 欧洲劳动力市场紧张，职位空缺率高，失业率低，这迫使包括食品公司在内的雇主提高工资来吸引工人，反过来又推高了包括食品行业在内的企业成本。 |
| Is profiteering keeping prices high? |
| 暴利是否令价格居高不下？ |
| Suspicions are growing among consumers, trade unions and some economists that inflation could be kept needlessly high by companies raising prices above their costs to protect profit margins. The European Central Bank said that at the end of last year, corporate profits were contributing to domestic inflation as much as wage growth, but it did not say if any industries had made excessive profits. |
| 消费者、工会和一些经济学家越来越怀疑，企业为保护利润率而将价格提高到成本以上，可能会使通胀保持在不必要的高位。欧洲央行表示，去年年底，企业利润对国内通胀的贡献与工资增长一样大，但没有说明是否有任何行业利润过高。 |
| Economists at Allianz, the German insurer and asset manager, estimate that 10 to 20 percent of food inflation in Europe can be attributed to profiteering. “There is part of the food price inflation that we see which is not explainable, easily,” said Ludovic Subran, the chief economist at Allianz. |
| 德国保险公司和资产管理公司安联的经济学家估计，欧洲10%到20%的食品通胀可归因于暴利行为。安联首席经济学家卢多维奇·苏布兰表示：“我们看到，食品价格上涨有一部分是无法轻易解释的。” |
| But the lack of detailed data about corporate profits and supply chains has caused a rift in economic opinions. |
| 但由于缺乏有关企业利润和供应链的详细数据，经济观点出现了分歧。 |
| Some economists and food retailers have pointed fingers at big global food producers, which have sustained double-digit profit margins while raising prices. In April, the Swiss giant Nestlé said it expected its profit margin this year to be about the same as it was last year, about 17 percent, while it reported raising prices almost 10 percent in the first quarter. |
| 一些经济学家和食品零售商将矛头指向全球大型食品生产商，它们在提高价格的同时保持了两位数的利润率。今年4月，瑞士巨头雀巢表示，预计今年的利润率将与去年持平，约为17%，同时该公司报告称，第一季度将提价近10%。 |
| Even taking into account expenses like transport and accounting for pricing lags from farms to shelves, Mr. Subran said he would have expected food inflation to come down by now. |
| 苏布兰表示，他本来预计食品通胀目前会出现下降，即使考虑到运输等费用以及从农场到货架的价格滞后。 |
| In Britain, some economists are telling a different story. Michael Saunders, an economist at Oxford Economics and former rate-setter at the Bank of England, said in a note to clients in May that “greedflation” was not the culprit. Most of the increase in inflation reflects the higher cost of energy and other commodities, he said. |
| 在英国，一些经济学家给出了不同的解释。牛津经济研究院经济学家、前英国央行利率制定者迈克尔·桑德斯在5月给客户的一份报告中表示，“贪婪通胀”并非罪魁祸首。他说，通胀上升的主要原因是能源和其他大宗商品价格上涨。 |
| Rather than rising, total profits for nonfinancial companies in Britain, excluding the oil and gas industry, have fallen over the past year, he said. |
| 他说，过去一年，英国非金融企业（不包括石油和天然气行业）的总利润非但没有上升，反而出现了下降。 |
| Britain’s competition regulator also said that it hadn’t seen evidence of competition concerns in the grocery sector, but that it was stepping up its investigation into “cost of living pressures.” |
| 英国竞争监管机构也表示，它没有看到食品生鲜行业存在竞争问题的证据，但它正在加强对“生活成本压力”的调查。 |
| Have food prices peaked? |
| 食品价格见顶了吗？ |
| Despite well-publicized cuts to milk prices in Britain, food prices in general are unlikely to go down in the near future. |
| 虽然英国的牛奶降价广为人知，但总的来说，食品价格近期不太可能下降。 |
| Instead, policymakers are closely watching for a slowdown in the rate of increases. |
| 政策制定者正在密切关注的是价格上涨速度的放缓。 |
| There are tentative signs that the pace of food inflation — the double-digit increase in annual prices — has reached its pinnacle. In April, the rate fell in the European Union for the first time in two years. |
| 有初步迹象表明，食品通货膨胀的速度——每年价格以两位数增长——已经达到了顶峰。4月，欧盟的食品涨幅两年来首次下降。 |
| But the slowdown from here is likely to be gradual. |
| 但接下来，放缓可能是逐步的。 |
| “It appears to be taking longer for food price pressures to work their way through the system this time than we had expected,” Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, said this month. |
| 英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利本月表示：“这次食品价格压力在整个系统里发挥作用的时间似乎比我们预期的要长。” |
| Across the continent, some governments are intervening by capping prices on food essentials, rather than waiting for the economic debates about corporate profiteering to play out. In France, the government is pushing an “anti-inflation quarter,” asking food retailers to cut prices on some products until June. But the finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, said this month that he wanted food producers to contribute more to the effort, warning they could face tax penalties to recover any margins unfairly made at the expense of consumers if they refuse to return to negotiations. |
| 在整个欧洲大陆，一些政府正在通过限制基本食品的价格进行干预，而不是等待有关企业牟取暴利的经济学辩论得出结果。在法国，政府正在推动“反通胀季”计划，要求食品零售商在6月之前降低某些商品的价格。但财长布鲁诺·勒梅尔本月表示，他希望食品生产商为这项努力做出更多贡献，并警告，如果他们拒绝重返谈判桌，可能面临税收处罚，通过这种方式收回他们以牺牲消费者为代价获得的所有不公平利润。 |
| These efforts may help some shoppers, but on the whole there is little to comfort Europeans. Food prices are unlikely to decline — it’s likely only that the pace of increases will slow later this year. |
| 这些努力可能对部分购物者有所帮助，但无法给欧洲人带去多少安慰。食品价格不太可能下降——可能只是到今年晚些时候涨幅会有所放缓。 |
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