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对手还是合作伙伴?欧洲人如何看待中国
Europeans Now See Russia as an Adversary, but Not China

来源:纽约时报    2023-06-08 12:22



        When Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France recently made separate but friendly visits to China, it sparked considerable dismay among their fellow leaders in Europe and Washington.        不久前,德国总理朔尔茨和法国总统马克龙分别对中国进行了友好访问,这在欧洲和华盛顿的领导人当中引发了相当大的不安。
        Especially given Beijing’s “no-limits partnership” with Russia, the efforts to treat China as what Mr. Macron called “a strategic and global partner,” rather than as a rival, were met with sometimes caustic criticism.        尤其考虑到中俄“没有止境的伙伴关系”,像马克龙那样将中国称为“战略和全球伙伴”而非对手有时会遭到严厉批评。
        Yet, an extensive opinion poll released on Wednesday, shows that Europeans tend to agree with them.        然而,周三公布的一项广泛的民意调查显示,欧洲人倾向于同意马克龙等人的观点。
        Even as Beijing moves closer to Moscow, and despite the war in Ukraine, a majority of Europeans still see China predominantly as “a necessary partner,” according to the poll of more than 6,000 people in 11 E.U. member states carried out in April by the European Council on Foreign Relations.        欧洲对外关系委员会在4月份对11个欧盟成员国的6000多人进行的调查显示,尽管北京正在向莫斯科靠拢,尽管乌克兰发生了战争,但大多数欧洲人仍将中国主要视为“一个必要的合作伙伴”。
        The poll indicates that majorities in all 11 countries are unwilling to support the United States against China if there were to be a military escalation between these two powers and would wish to remain neutral.        民意调查显示,如果两个大国之间的军事冲突升级,所有11个国家的大多数人都不愿意支持美国对抗中国,而是希望保持中立。
        At the same time, Russia is increasingly seen as an adversary or rival, a view held by some 64 percent of respondents, an increase from about a third of respondents when the same question was posed in a 2021 poll.        与此同时,俄罗斯越来越被视为敌手或对手,约64%的受访者持这一观点,而在2021年的一次民意调查中,这一比例约为三分之一。
        “Europeans clearly see the Russia-China alliance and that it’s formed against the West, but they treat them differently,” said Jana Puglierin, co-author of the report accompanying the poll. “That only changes if China supplies arms to Russia.”        “欧洲人显然看到了俄中联盟,认为它是针对西方的,但他们对中俄的态度不同,”调查报告的合著者亚娜·普格利林说。“只有中国向俄罗斯提供武器,情况才会改变。”
        Indeed, 41 percent of Europeans would support economic sanctions against China if Beijing were to provide significant military aid to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, while 33 percent would oppose that step.        事实上,如果北京向入侵乌克兰的俄罗斯提供大量军事援助,41%的欧洲人支持对中国实施经济制裁,33%的人反对这一举措。
        The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points in larger countries and plus or minus three percentage points in smaller ones.        该调查在较大国家的误差幅度为正负两个百分点,在较小国家的误差幅度为正负三个百分点。
        While wishing to cooperate with Beijing on global issues like climate change, European leaders officially consider China a “systemic rival” and “economic competitor,” according to their “strategic compass,” the European Union’s strategy paper.        虽然希望在气候变化等全球问题上与北京合作,但根据欧盟的战略文件“战略指南针”,欧洲领导人正式将中国视为“系统性对手”和“经济竞争对手”。
        Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, in a speech in late March, took a tough line on Beijing, saying that it was entering a new era of “security and control,” had a policy of “divide and conquer” and that Europe must “de-risk” key sectors from dependence on China.        欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在3月底的一次演讲中对北京采取了强硬立场,称中国正在进入一个“安全和控制”的新时代,其政策是“分治法”, 欧洲必须为关键部门“去风险”,使其不再依赖中国。
        Her views are closer to those of the Biden administration, but European opinion is closer to the views of Mr. Macron, Ms. Puglierin said.        普格列林说,冯德莱恩的观点更接近拜登政府的观点,但欧洲的舆论更接近马克龙的观点。
        Yet Mr. Macron was widely criticized for his comments after visiting China’s president Xi Jinping in April, when he said that Europe should not be “followers” on Taiwan or “adapt ourselves to an American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction.”        然而,马克龙在4月访华后的言论受到了广泛批评,他说欧洲不应该在台湾问题上做“追随者”,或者“让我们自己适应美国的节奏和中国的过度反应”。
        He said that it would be “a trap for Europe” to get caught up in crises “that are not ours.” Europeans should continue to develop their own strategic autonomy and become a “third pole” in the world order, and not risk becoming “vassals” in a U.S.-China confrontation. Like Mr. Scholz, Mr. Macron downplayed any rivalry and said that China was “a strategic and global partner.”        他说,陷入“不属于我们的”危机将落入“为欧洲设置的陷阱”。欧洲人应该继续发展自己的战略自主权,成为世界秩序的“第三极”,而不是冒险成为美中对抗的“附庸”。和朔尔茨一样,马克龙淡化了竞争,称中国是“战略和全球合作伙伴”。
        Still, while France and Germany are the main partners for Beijing, “the reality is that French businesses are disillusioned with the Chinese market, and the long-term picture for Sino-French economic partnership looks gloomy at best,” cautioned Philippe Le Corre, a scholar of China with the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.        然而,尽管法德是北京的主要合作伙伴,“现实情况是,法国企业对中国市场的幻想破灭了,中法经济伙伴关系的长期前景充其量也是黯淡的,”亚洲协会政策研究所中国分析中心的中国问题学者陆克(Philippe Le Corre)警告。
        For him, the most important finding of the survey is that French and German respondents have fairly negative views of China, with only 31 percent of the French and 33 percent of Germans seeing China as a “partner,” while 50 percent of Germans and 41 percent of the French see China as a rival or an adversary.        在他看来,这个调查最重要的发现是法德受访者对中国的看法相当负面,只有31%的法国人和33%的德国人将中国视为“伙伴”,而50%的德国人和41%的法国人将中国视为对手或敌手。
        That would seem to leave both leaders, even if more in tune with European sentiments, on more challenging ground at home, but perhaps making it easier for Germany in particular to reduce its significant economy dependency on trade with China, especially in the key automotive sector.        这似乎会让两位领导人在国内面临更大的挑战——尽管他们与欧洲的情绪更加一致,但可能会使得德国更容易减少对中国贸易的严重依赖,尤其是在关键的汽车行业。
        Elsewhere, Mr. Le Corre said, Europeans were either “largely apathetic” about China or wary, especially of Chinese investment in European infrastructure, tech companies and the media. “Europeans do not want an increase in Chinese foreign direct investments — so much for the Belt and Road Initiative,” Mr. Le Corre said, referring to China’s push to build ports, rail lines and telecommunications networks around the world.        陆克说,在其他方面,欧洲人要么对中国“基本上漠不关心”,要么持谨慎态度,尤其是对中国对欧洲基础设施、科技公司和媒体的投资。“欧洲人不希望中国增加对外直接投资—— ‘一带一路’没什么戏了,”陆克说道。“一带一路”指的是中国推动在世界各地建设港口、铁路和电信网络的计划。
        Views on Russia have hardened, with majorities seeing Russia as an adversary, with growing doubts about Moscow even in traditionally sympathetic France and Italy, pointed out Pawel Zerka, a co-author of the report.        该报告的合著者帕维尔·泽尔卡指出,对俄罗斯的看法已经变得强硬,大多数人将俄罗斯视为对手,即使在传统上同情俄罗斯的法国和意大利,对莫斯科的怀疑也越来越大。
        Roughly half of all respondents believe that even after a peace in Ukraine, future relations with Russia should be “limited.” But in Bulgaria and Hungary a majority of respondents viewed Russia as an “ally” or “partner” and in general would like to cooperate with Moscow after the war.        大约一半的受访者认为,即使乌克兰实现和平,未来与俄罗斯的关系也应该是“有限的”。但在保加利亚和匈牙利,大多数受访者将俄罗斯视为“盟友”或“伙伴”,总体上愿意在战后与莫斯科合作。
        While views of the United States as an ally have improved from 2021, when Donald J. Trump was president, roughly three-quarters of respondents believe that Europe should reduce its security dependence on Washington and invest more in its own defense. Some 56 percent of all respondents said that the re-election of Mr. Trump would weaken trans-Atlantic relations.        虽然比起2021年特朗普担任总统时,把美国视作盟友的看法有所改善,但大约四分之三的受访者认为,欧洲应该减少对华盛顿的安全依赖,加大对自身防务的投资。约56%的受访者表示,特朗普连任会削弱跨大西洋关系。
        In general, Ms. Puglierin said, “Europeans are ready to praise the trans-Atlantic relationship and see more benefits than risks, but don’t see that it comes with obligations. They don’t see that Taiwan is considered a fundamental part of U.S. strategy or that it is linked with Ukraine,” or to the protection of the Pacific sea lanes on which European trade depends.        普格列林说,总的来说,“欧洲人乐于赞扬跨大西洋关系,他们认为利大于弊,但不认为它伴随着义务。”他们没有看到台湾被视为美国战略的一个基本组成部分,也不觉得台湾与乌克兰存在关联”,此外,他们也不认为台湾与保护欧洲贸易所依赖的太平洋航道有关。
        “There is little awareness that it would be problematic not to side with the U.S. after it has invested so much in Europe,” she said. “They see neutrality as an option.”        “几乎没有人意识到,在美国对欧洲投资了这么多之后,不站在美国一边会有问题,”她说。“他们把中立视为一种选择。”
                
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