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| President Biden left for Japan on Wednesday for a meeting of the leaders of seven major industrial democracies who get together each year to try to keep the world economy stable. | 周三，拜登总统启程前往日本，参加七大工业民主国家的年度首脑峰会，以维持全球经济稳定发展。 |
| But as it turns out, the major potential threat to global economic stability this year is the United States. | 但结果，今年可能对全球经济稳定产生重大威胁的因素正是美国自己。 |
| When Mr. Biden lands in Hiroshima for the annual Group of 7 summit meeting on Thursday, the United States will be two weeks from a possible default that would jolt not only its own economy but those of the other countries at the table. It will fall to Mr. Biden to reassure his counterparts that he will find a way to avoid that, but they understand it is not solely in his control. | 就在拜登周四抵达广岛参加七国集团年度峰会之时，美国或许将在两周后出现债务违约，这不仅会动摇国内经济，也可波及其他与会国家。拜登有必要向这些领导人保证，他会找到避免债务违约的办法，但领导人们都明白，这不是他一个人能决定的事。 |
| The showdown with Republicans over raising the federal debt ceiling has already upended the president’s international diplomacy by forcing a last-minute cancellation of two stops he had planned to make after Japan: Papua New Guinea and Australia. Rather than being the unchallenged commander of the most powerful superpower striding across the world stage, Mr. Biden will be an embattled leader forced to rush home to avert a catastrophe of America’s own making. | 在提升联邦债务上限的问题上与共和党僵持不下打乱了总统的国际外交部署，迫使他在最后一刻取消了访日之后的另外两站行程：巴布亚新几内亚和澳大利亚。拜登不是在国际舞台上昂首挺胸、一呼百应的最强超级大国的最高指挥官，而是一个焦头烂额的领导人，被迫要赶回国去避免一场美国自己折腾出来的劫难。 |
| He was at least bolstered before leaving Washington by signs of progress as both sides emerged from a White House meeting on Tuesday expressing optimism that an agreement was possible. In the preparations leading up to the G7 meeting, officials from the other participating countries have not struck U.S. officials as all that alarmed about the possibility of default, perhaps because they trust Mr. Biden, know that the moment of truth is still a couple weeks away and assume that Washington will get its act together in time. | 事情在他离开华盛顿之前有了一些向前推进的迹象，总算给了他一点鼓舞，两党在周二的白宫会晤后均对达成协议的可能性表示乐观。在七国集团峰会的筹备过程中，美国官员认为其他与会国家的官员并没有那么担心债务违约的可能性，或许是因为他们相信拜登，反正距离紧要关头还有几周时间，华盛顿肯定能及时拿出解决办法。 |
| But that simply underscores how much volatility has become the new norm in Washington. After generations of counting on the United States as the most important stabilizing force in world affairs, allies in recent years have increasingly come to expect a certain level of dysfunction instead. Extended government shutdowns, banking crises, debt ceiling fights and even political violence would once have been unthinkable but have prompted foreign leaders to factor American unpredictability into their calculations. | 但这只能凸显一个事实，那就是动荡已成为华盛顿的新常态。在过去的几个世代里，美国被视为全球事务中最关键的稳定力量，但最近几年，盟友对美国出现某种程度的运转失调愈发见怪不怪。曾几何时，长期政府停摆、银行危机、债务上限之争乃至政治暴力都是不可想象之事，但如今却让外国领导人不得不将美国的不可预测性纳入他们的考量。 |
| “I think our biggest threat is us,” said Jane Harman, a former Democratic representative from California who later served as the president of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. “Our leadership in the world is being eroded by our internal dysfunction. The markets are still betting against our defaulting, and that’s a decent bet. But if we only manage to eke out a short-term extension and the price is onerous budget caps — including on defense — we will be hobbled when Ukraine needs us most and China is building beachheads everywhere.” | “我相信美国最大的威胁就来自我们自己，”来自加州的前民主党众议员、后来担任伍德罗·威尔逊国际学者研究中心主任的简·哈尔曼说道。“我们的全球领导地位正在被国内纷争所侵蚀。市场仍在赌我们不会违约，赌赢的几率还是很高的。但我们若是只能勉强拿出一个短暂延期，并以繁重的预算上限——包括国防——作为代价，那我们就会在乌克兰最需要我们的时候陷入困顿，而中国则会在全球各地占据先机。” |
| The White House warned that a default would only embolden America’s adversaries, using the argument against Republicans, whom they blame for playing with fire. | 白宫警告债务违约只会让美国敌对势力更加胆大妄为，并以此来指责共和党人的玩火行径。 |
| “There’s countries like Russia and China that would love nothing more than for us to default so they could point the finger and say, ‘You see, the United States is not a stable, reliable partner,’” said John F. Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council. | “俄罗斯和中国这样的国家最盼望我们违约，这样他们就可以指着我们说，‘看吧，美国可不是靠谱的伙伴，’”国家安全委员会发言人约翰·F·柯比说。 |
| But he sought to play down the effects of the dispute on the G7 meeting, saying that he doubted it would “dominate the discussion” and maintaining that other leaders “don’t need to worry about that part of it.” The president’s counterparts would understand his need to cut short his trip, he said. | 但他试图淡化债务上限争端对七国集团峰会的影响，称他不认为此事将“成为讨论主题”，并坚称他国首脑“无需担心这方面的问题”。他表示，与总统会谈的领导人会理解他缩短行程的必要。 |
| “They know that our ability to pay our debts is a key part of U.S. credibility and leadership around the world,” Mr. Kirby said. “And so they understand that the president also has to focus on making sure that we don’t default and on having these conversations with congressional leaders.” | “他们都知道，偿付债务的能力是美国维持全球信誉和领导地位的一大关键，”柯比说。“因此他们也明白，总统必须集中精力确保我们不违约，并就此问题与国会领导人进行协商。” |
| Even if they understand, though, they see consequences. Mr. Biden’s decision to head home early reinforces questions about American commitment to the Asia-Pacific region and leaves a vacuum that China may exploit, according to analysts. A presidential visit to places like Papua New Guinea, where no U.S. leader has gone before, speaks loudly about diplomatic priorities — as does the failure to follow through. | 即便他国首脑能够理解，但后果是显而易见的。分析人士称，拜登提前回国的决定导致美国对亚太地区的重视程度受到更多质疑，并给了中国可乘之机。美国领导人从未出访巴布亚新几内亚这样的国家，拜登若能成行，将明示美国外交优先事项所在——而他未能成行，也会带来同样的效果。 |
| This is not the first time an American president has scrubbed a foreign trip to deal with domestic concerns. President George H.W. Bush canceled a two-week trip to Asia in 1991 to show he was focused on a lagging economy at home, while President Bill Clinton scrapped a trip to Japan during a government shutdown in 1995. President Barack Obama delayed a trip to Indonesia and Australia in 2010 to focus on health care legislation, then skipped an Asia-Pacific summit meeting in 2013 during a government shutdown of his own. | 这不是美国总统首次为处理国内问题而取消出访。老布什总统在1991年取消了为期两周的亚洲之行，以表明他要专注于提振国内低迷的经济；而克林顿总统在1995年取消出访日本，当时正值美国政府停摆。奥巴马总统曾在2010年推迟对印尼和澳大利亚的访问，以专注于医疗改革立法，在之后的2013年，他又在自己的政府停摆期间缺席了一场亚太峰会。 |
| The perpetual culture of crisis in Washington, however, has grown only more intense since the arrival of President Donald J. Trump, who threatened to unravel bedrock alliances and embraced longstanding adversaries abroad while disrupting democratic norms and economic conventions at home. | 不过，特朗普总统上任后不但威胁要瓦解美国的联盟根基，拥抱长久以来的海外敌对势力，同时还在国内破坏民主规范和经济公约，导致华盛顿根深蒂固的危机文化愈演愈烈。 |
| The debt ceiling showdown between Mr. Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy has underscored to the president’s peers that however much he may seek to restore normalcy, U.S. politics has not returned to the steady state of the past — not least because Mr. Trump seeks to reclaim office in next year’s election. | 拜登与众议院议长凯文·麦卡锡在债务上限问题上的针锋相对也向他国首脑表明，无论他多么努力想要恢复常态，美国政治还是没有回到过去的稳定局面——尤其考虑到特朗普还在寻求在明年大选中重新掌权。 |
| By contrast to his predecessor, Mr. Biden has conducted a far more conventional foreign policy familiar to world leaders, and foreign officials see him as a more traditional U.S. president. But they also understand that he is presiding over a country whose democracy has been tested and found to be fragile. And they see a fractious politics in Washington that values confrontation over compromise, even at the risk of something that would have once been unimaginable, like a default. | 拜登的外交政策远比他的前一任更符合惯例，为世界各国领导人所熟悉，而外国官员也认为他是位更典型的美国总统。但他们也明白，在拜登所领导的美国，其民主制度已经受到考验并暴露出脆弱之处。他们还看到了华盛顿的动荡政局将对抗冲突置于折中让步之上，即使冒上违约这种以往不可想象的风险也在所不惜。 |
| “I don’t think many European governments are very concerned, presumably because these crises come round quite often but never end in disaster,” said Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform in London. “Cutting short the trip is a bad signal, but there is such good will to Biden in most capitals that they are prepared to cut him some slack.” | “我认为很多欧洲政府并不是十分担心，大概是由于这样的危机时有发生，但从未以灾难收场，”伦敦欧洲改革中心主任查尔斯·格兰特说。“缩短行程是个糟糕的信号，但大多国家对拜登都拿出了巨大的善意，是不会在这件事上为难他的。” |
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