台湾2024年大选:国民党提名“温和派”侯友宜_OK阅读网
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台湾2024年大选:国民党提名“温和派”侯友宜
As China Looms Over Taiwan’s Presidential Race, the Opposition Picks a Moderate

来源:纽约时报    2023-05-22 12:57



        Once a dominant political force, Taiwan’s main opposition party lost the last two presidential elections in large part because it has promoted closer ties with China. Now, faced with voters who have been alarmed by Beijing’s aggression toward the island, the Kuomintang is placing its hopes on a new type of candidate: a popular local leader with a blank slate on the thorny question of China.
        台湾的主要反对党曾是当地占主导地位的政治力量,但在过去两次总统大选中失利,很大程度上是因为它倡导与中国大陆建立更紧密的关系。现在,面对因中国政府对台湾的好斗姿态而感到害怕的选民,国民党正在将希望寄托于一种新型候选人身上:一名广受欢迎、在如何处理与大陆关系的棘手问题上没有记录的地方领导。
        The Kuomintang, or Nationalist Party, on Wednesday nominated as its presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih, a 66-year-old, two-term mayor of New Taipei City and former police chief who has tried to strike a middle ground within the Kuomintang on the island’s relations with China. Mr. Hou launched his bid with a rallying call.
        国民党周三提名侯友宜为该党的总统候选人,现年66岁的侯友宜两度担任新北市市长,曾任警政署署长,在台湾与中国大陆的关系问题上试图寻找折中立场。侯友宜以呼吁团结的战斗口号宣布参加竞选。
        “We must unite for victory, especially at this stage when our country is facing fierce and dangerous international circumstances,” Mr. Hou said following the announcement of his nomination.
        “我们要团结获胜,现阶段我们的国家在国际情势兵凶战危,国内对立冲突,”侯友宜在国民党宣布他为总统提名人后说。
        His candidacy sets the stage for a tight race next January that could chart a new course for Taiwan in the big-power standoff between China and the United States and reshape tensions around the Taiwan Strait, one of the world’s most dangerous flash points. Under the seven-year leadership of President Tsai Ing-wen of the governing Democratic Progressive Party, Taiwan has come under intensifying military and diplomatic pressure from China and pushed back by bolstering ties with the United States.
        他的提名为明年1月的一场激烈竞选拉开了序幕,这场竞选可能会为处在中美大国对峙之间的台湾开辟一条新道路,重塑围绕台湾海峡的紧张局势,台湾海峡是世界上最危险的爆发点之一。在执政的民进党总统蔡英文领导的七年里,台湾受到来自中国越来越大的军事和外交压力,并通过加强与美国的关系来抵抗这些压力。
        Within the Kuomintang, Mr. Hou is regarded as a capable administrator with broad appeal, who “would generate the least internal party controversy, align with the general expectations of society and have the highest likelihood of winning in the presidential election,” said Huang Kwei-Bo, a professor of international relations at the National Chengchi University and a former deputy secretary-general of the Nationalist Party.
        国立政治大学国际关系学教授、曾任国民党副秘书长的黄奎博表示,在国民党内部,侯友宜被视为一名能干的行政官员,对选民有广泛的吸引力,他“在党内引起的争议最少,与社会的普遍预期一致,最有可能在总统大选中获胜”。
        Mr. Hou’s nomination pits him against Lai Ching-te, the governing party candidate and current vice president. A win for Mr. Lai would likely mean a continuation of China’s policies to freeze out Taiwan from any high-level engagement, as well as Taiwan’s continued closeness with the United States. A victory for Mr. Hou and the Kuomintang could reopen communication channels with China and tamp down military tensions, potentially reducing the pressure on Taiwan to strengthen ties with Washington.
        侯友宜的提名让他与执政党候选人、现任副总统赖清德展开竞争。赖清德获胜可能意味着中国将继续现行的台湾政策,将台湾排除在任何高层接触之外,而台美密切关系也将继续下去。侯友宜和国民党获胜可能会让中国重新打开与台湾沟通的渠道,缓和军事紧张局势,从而有可能减轻台湾加强与华盛顿关系的压力。
        Mr. Hou faced tough competition from Terry Gou, the founder of the iPhone and electronics manufacturer Foxconn, who failed despite holding rallies around the island to make his case for nomination. Analysts said Mr. Gou’s lack of experience in politics and his business interests in China made him an unviable candidate for the Kuomintang.
        侯友宜在竞选提名时面临了来自郭台铭的激烈竞争,郭台铭是iPhone和电子产品制造商富士康的创始人,为获得提名曾在全岛各地举行集会但遭遇失败。分析人士称,郭台铭缺乏从政经验,加上他在中国有商业利益,这让他成为国民党的总统候选人变得不可行。
        The Kuomintang in recent years has struggled to balance its China-friendly leanings with the Taiwan population’s souring sentiment toward Beijing. That juggling act has been complicated by Beijing’s crackdown on Hong Kong in 2019 and its ramped-up military drills around Taiwan. The governing D.P.P. has positioned itself as a defender of Taiwan’s sovereignty and democracy, and pointed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an example of the urgent threat of authoritarian expansionism.
        近年来,国民党一直在其对中国友好的倾向与台湾民众对北京的厌恶情绪之间努力寻找平衡。北京2019年对香港的镇压以及在台湾周边增加军事演习的做法让这种平衡努力变得更加复杂。执政的民进党将自己放在台湾主权和民主捍卫者的位置,并以俄罗斯入侵乌克兰为例,来说明威权主义扩张所带来的紧迫威胁。
        But the Kuomintang scored big last year, prevailing in almost two-thirds of local mayoral elections contested, races in which geopolitics matter less than bread-and-butter issues. Mr. Hou handily won his re-election as mayor and has since topped multiple polls within the party for the candidacy.
        但国民党在去年的地方选举中大胜,赢得了几乎三分之二的市长选举,但地缘政治在地方选举中的重要性低于生计问题。侯友宜轻而易举地赢得了市长连任,此后他在党内针对总统候选人提名进行的多项民意调查中居首位。
        Unlike most politicians in Taiwan, Mr. Hou began his career as a police officer, in the 1980s. He rose through the ranks and was a key investigator into the 2004 assassination attempt against President Chen Shui-bian. In 2006, Mr. Chen’s administration promoted Mr. Hou to the position of chief of the island’s police force, the youngest officer ever to serve in the role.
        与台湾的大多数政客不同,侯友宜的职业生涯是从20世纪80年代当警察开始的。他从底层干起,之后不断晋升,他是调查2004年暗杀陈水扁总统未遂事件的主要调查员。2006年,陈水扁的政府将侯友宜提拔为警政署署长,使他成为有史以来担任该职的最年轻警官。
        In his turn to politics in 2010, he joined hands with Eric Chu, who was then the mayor of New Taipei City. Mr. Hou served as the deputy mayor under Mr. Chu and succeeded Mr. Chu as mayor in 2018. Mr. Chu is now the chairman of the Kuomintang.
        2010年转入政坛后,侯友宜与时任新北市市长的朱立伦联手。他在朱立伦手下担任新北市副市长,并于2018年接替朱立伦担任市长。朱立伦现为国民党主席。
        Supporters of Mr. Hou in New Taipei City say that he takes real actions to improve the lives of residents. Jax Chen, a 28-year-old nonprofit worker, referred to Mr. Hou’s effort to transform a giant, decades-old garbage dump into green park space as one example.
        侯友宜在新北市的支持者说,他用实际行动改善了居民生活。现年28岁的非营利组织工作人员贾克斯·陈(音)给的一了例子是,侯友宜把有几十年历史的巨型垃圾场改造成了绿色公园。
        “In Taiwan’s political scene, it seems like everyone is just talking too much,” he said. “But if there is a person who is pragmatic with capabilities to enforce policies, I believe it would be great and everyone would be willing to accept the person.”
        “台湾的政治舞台上似乎所有人都说话太多,”他说。“但如果有一个是务实、有政策执行能力的人的话,我相信那会很好,而且所有人都会愿意接受这个人。”
        Less well established are Mr. Hou’s views on major geopolitical questions such as how Taiwan should navigate its relationships with China and the United States. China claims Taiwan as its territory, to be absorbed with force if necessary, and accuses the D.P.P. of seeking formal independence. The Kuomintang has asserted that it is the party with the best chance of engaging China and avoiding war.
        人们不太确定的是侯友宜对台湾应如何处理与中国和美国的关系等重大地缘政治问题的看法。中国声称台湾是自己的领土,必要时将用武力收复,并指责民进党寻求正式的独立。国民党声称自己是最有可能与中国进行接触、避免发生战争的政党。
        In an apparent effort to thread the needle, Mr. Hou has said he both opposes Taiwan independence and the “one country, two systems” formulation proposed by China to absorb Taiwan. The position eschews two extremes but leaves open a huge number of possible viewpoints on the existential issue of cross-strait relations.
        侯友宜表示,他既反对台湾独立,也反对中国提出的“一国两制”安排,这显然是在找平衡。虽然这个立场避免了两个极端,但在两岸关系这个事关生存的问题上保留了大量可能的观点。
        The lack of clarity about his stance on China has already been criticized by some observers, a potential disadvantage for him on top of his lack of experience in foreign affairs, said Paul Chao-hsiang Chu, a politics professor at National Taiwan Normal University who studies party politics and voters’ behavior.
        侯友宜对中国的立场不够明确已经受到一些观察者的批评,这对他来说是缺乏外交事务经验之外的一个潜在不利因素,台湾师范大学研究政党政治和选民行为的政治学教授曲兆祥说。
        At the same time, Mr. Hou’s reticence could make him more appealing to centrist voters, said Liao Da-chi, an emeritus professor of political science at the National Sun Yat-Sen University. That is in contrast to Han Kuo-yu, the Kuomintang’s presidential candidate in 2020, who made rousing speeches and pledged to restore closer relations with China but lost in a landslide to President Tsai.
        与此同时,侯友宜在两岸关系问题上沉默寡言可能让他对中间派选民更有吸引力,国立中山大学政治学荣誉退休教授廖达琪说。这与国民党在2020年总统大选中的候选人韩国瑜形成鲜明对比,韩国瑜曾发表激动人心的竞选演说,承诺恢复与中国大陆更密切的关系,但以压倒性劣势输给了蔡英文总统。
        Overall, Mr. Hou has had very few interactions with the United States, said Bonnie Glaser, a Taiwan expert and managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Mr. Hou has said that he has met with officials at the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto embassy for the United States, at least eight times. But American congressional delegations to Taiwan since its reopening have not been able to meet with him.
        总的来说,侯友宜与美国的互动很少,台湾问题专家、美国的德国马歇尔基金会印太项目主任葛来仪(BonnieGlaser)说。侯友宜表示,他与美国在台协会(美国事实上的大使馆)的官员已至少见了八次面。但自台湾重新开放以来访台的美国国会代表团一直未能与他见面。
        As Beijing stokes tensions in the Taiwan Strait, the Kuomintang’s contact with China has sometimes put it in an awkward position.
        随着北京加剧台海紧张局势,国民党与中国进行接触的做法有时使其处于尴尬境地。
        Earlier this year, just as President Tsai traveled to the United States, Ma Ying-jeou, a former president of Taiwan and an influential leader in the Kuomintang, headed for China on an unofficial trip. Mr. Ma was criticized in Taiwan for appearing to kowtow to China on an inappropriately timed visit. (In retaliation for Ms. Tsai’s visit to the United States, China sent record numbers of military aircraft, as well as naval ships and an aircraft carrier, near Taiwan to conduct military drills.)
        今年早些时候,就在蔡英文出访过境美国的时候,台湾前总统、国民党内颇具影响力的领导人马英九也前往中国大陆进行非正式访问。马英九在这次不合时宜的访问中对中国卑躬屈膝的样子在台湾受到批评。(为报复蔡英文访美,中国派出数量创纪录的军机、海军舰艇和航空母舰到台湾附近进行军事演习。)
        “To win the election, it is imperative for the Kuomintang to persuade the people that voting for them is the safer and more promising choice in achieving peace,” Dr. Chu said. “At the same time, how it would convince the Taiwanese people they will not betray Taiwan or allow China to completely swallow up Taiwan’s sovereignty presents a significant challenge for Kuomintang.”
        “要赢得总统选举,国民党必须说服民众,投票给他们是实现和平的更安全、更有希望的选择,”曲兆祥说。“与此同时,如何让台湾人民相信他们不会出卖台湾或允许中国完全吞并台湾的主权,对国民党来说是一个重大挑战。”
        
        
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