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| Turkey’s nail-biter election will go to a runoff, election officials announced on Monday, extending a pivotal vote that has demonstrated that the incumbent, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is still a formidable political force, despite his failure to secure a first-round victory. | 选举官员周一宣布，土耳其难分胜负的大选将进入决选阶段，这场关键表决进入延长赛表明，现任总统埃尔多安虽然未能确保在首轮票选中胜出，他所代表的政治势力依旧强大。 |
| Turkey’s Supreme Election Council said the runoff would be held May 28 after official preliminary results showed that Mr. Erdogan had won 49.5 percent of votes and his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 44.9 percent, with nearly all ballots counted. Mr. Erdogan, who has led Turkey for 20 years, appeared to be in a strong position to emerge with another five-year term. | 土耳其最高选举委员会表示，决选将于5月28日进行。此前官方初步计票结果显示，埃尔多安得票率49.5%，而他的主要对手凯末尔·克勒奇达尔奥卢得票率为44.9%，几乎所有选票都已清点。已经统治土耳其20年的埃尔多安似乎极有可能再赢得一个五年任期。 |
| After a tumultuous night during which the rival camps each accused the other of rushing to declare results in advance of official tallies, both sides said early on Monday that they would accept a runoff — and predicted they would prevail. | 在经历了前一天的混乱之夜后，对立阵营都指责彼此在官方计票之前匆忙宣布结果，而周一早些时候双方均表示，他们同意参与决选，也都预测自己将获胜。 |
| Sunday’s voting was closely watched around the world for how it could shape the course of Turkey, an important NATO ally with a wide array of diplomatic and economic ties across continents. Of particular interest was the fate of Mr. Erdogan, who has often flummoxed and frustrated his Western partners, including the United States, and faced growing discontent amid high inflation and the destruction wrought by earthquakes in February that killed more than 50,000 in southern Turkey. | 周日的投票受到了全世界密切关注，因为这将影响土耳其的未来方向，作为北约重要盟友，土耳其与各大洲有着广泛的外交和经济联系。埃尔多安的结局也值得特别关注，他经常让包括美国在内的西方伙伴感到困惑和沮丧，而高通胀和今年2月在土耳其南部造成5万多人死亡的地震带来的破坏，令他面临越来越多的不满情绪。 |
| Before the vote, most polls suggested a slight lead for Mr. Kilicdaroglu, the joint candidate of a newly formed alliance of six opposition parties. But the results showed Mr. Erdogan’s enduring appeal and influence. | 投票前的大多民调显示，克勒奇达尔奥卢略微领先，他是六个反对党派新成立的联盟推举的联合候选人。但选举结果表明，埃尔多安对选民的吸引力和影响力依旧坚挺。 |
| Here are some key takeaways: | 以下是关于这次选举的一些要点： |
| Turkey’s first runoff | 土耳其的首次决选 |
| This is the first election in Turkey’s history in which no presidential candidate secured a majority in the first round. It opens up a complicated two-week window during which the candidates will go all-out to pull more voters into their camps. | 这是土耳其大选历史上首次出现没有候选人在第一轮选举中得票率过半的情况。这导致选举进入了一个为期两周的复杂窗口期，候选人需要竭尽全力吸引更多选民支持自己的阵营。 |
| Sunday’s election was the country’s second since a 2017 referendum supported by Mr. Erdogan that changed Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential system. Mr. Erdogan won the last two presidential contests, in 2014 and 2018, outright and by significant margins. | 周日大选是土耳其自2017年埃尔多安支持的公投后的第二次选举，那次公投将土耳其从议会制改为了总统制。在此前两届总统大选中（2014年和2018年），埃尔多安都以绝对优势获胜。 |
| His inability to do so this time makes clear that he has lost some support. | 如今他未能复刻以前的成功，说明他已经失去了部分支持。 |
| Erdogan has the edge | 埃尔多安占据上风 |
| Mr. Erdogan appears to have the edge with his lead over Mr. Kilicdaroglu, just shy of an outright majority. The elimination of a third candidate, Sinan Ogan, leaves the 5.7 percent of voters who chose him, many of them from the right, up for grabs. Most, if they participate in a runoff, are likely to opt for Mr. Erdogan. | 面对克勒奇达尔奥卢，埃尔多安似乎占据了上风，只差一点就能拿下绝对多数。另一位候选人锡南·奥甘出局，使得给他投票的5.7%的选民（其中许多来自右翼）顿时成为香饽饽。如果这些选民参与决选，大多数人可能会支持埃尔多安。 |
| In the run-up to the election, Mr. Erdogan freely tapped state resources to improve his chances, raising civil servant salaries and the national minimum wage and unleashing other government spending in an effort to insulate people from the immediate effects of high inflation. He could deploy more such measures between now and the runoff. | 选举前夕，埃尔多安肆意动用国家资源为自己拉票，给公务员加薪，提高全国最低工资标准，并加大其他政府支出，以使民众免受高通胀的直接影响。到决选之前，他可能会采取更多此类措施。 |
| Also helping Mr. Erdogan make his case is his party’s strong showing in Sunday’s parliamentary vote, which took place at the same time. | 在周日同时进行的议会选举中，埃尔多安所在政党表现强劲，这是他的另一大利好因素。 |
| Preliminary results suggested that Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party and its allies would keep their majority in the 600-seat Parliament. That would allow Mr. Erdogan to argue that he should win to avoid a divided government that could hamper the efficient functioning of the state. | 初步计票结果表明，埃尔多安的正义与发展党及其盟友将在600个议会席位中继续保持多数优势。这样一来，埃尔多安就可以宣称自己理应胜选，才能避免妨碍国家有效运转的分裂政府。 |
| For his part, Mr. Kilicdaroglu has predicted that he would prevail in a runoff, telling supporters early Monday: “We will definitely win and bring democracy to this country.” | 克勒奇达尔奥卢曾宣称自己将在决选中获胜，他在周一早些时候向支持者表示：“我们必将胜利，并为这个国家带来民主。” |
| Turks’ faith in elections remains high | 土耳其民众依然非常相信选举 |
| The election council said that turnout on Sunday surpassed 88.9 percent of the 64 million eligible voters in Turkey and overseas. Some endured long lines and returned to quake-destroyed neighborhoods to exercise what many see as a national duty. | 土耳其国内外的注册选民有6400万人，选举委员会表示，周日选举的投票率超过88.9%。有人甘愿排起长队，回到地震毁坏的社区，履行许多人心中的国民责任。 |
| The turnout figure is far greater than the 66.6 percent turnout in the 2020 presidential election in the United States. But such high numbers are not unusual in Turkey. | 这远高于美国2020年总统大选66.6%的投票率。但如此高的数字在土耳其并不罕见。 |
| In the last presidential and parliamentary elections, in 2018, around 85 percent of voters cast ballots. And since 1983, turnout in any election — including for mayors and city councils — has never fallen below 74 percent. | 在2018年的上届总统及议会选举中，约有85%的选民进行了投票。自1983年以来，土耳其每次选举（包括市长和市议会选举）的投票率从未低于74%。 |
| Many political scientists don’t consider Turkey a pure democracy, largely because of the tremendous power exercised by the president and his ability to shape the political playing field before the vote. | 土耳其在许多政治学者眼中算不上一个纯粹的民主国家，主要是因为总统行使了巨大权力，而且能对投票前的政治竞争环境产生巨大影响。 |
| But Turks still take elections very seriously. That includes Mr. Erdogan, who told supporters early Monday that he was prepared to face a runoff. | 但土耳其人依然非常重视选举。这也包括埃尔多安本人，他在周一早些时候告诉支持者，自己已经为决选做好了准备。 |
| “In my political life, I’ve always respected your decision,” he said. “I expect the same democratic maturity from everyone.” | “我在政治生涯中从来都尊重你们的决定，”他说。“我希望你们每个人都能具有同样的民主成熟度。” |
| Nationalism appeared to prevail | 民族主义似乎占据上风 |
| Turkish voters may not prioritize foreign policy at the ballot box, but Mr. Erdogan’s decision to step up nationalist rhetoric during the campaign appears to have paid off, both for him and for his conservative parliamentary alliance. | 外交政策可能不会成为土耳其选民最看重的事项，但埃尔多安在竞选期间加大力度宣扬民族主义的决定似乎得到了回报，对他本人和他的保守派议会联盟都起到了助益。 |
| During the campaign, Mr. Erdogan had a warship dock in central Istanbul for voters to visit. He escalated his criticism of the United States, even claiming on the eve of the elections that President Biden was seeking to topple him. | 竞选期间，埃尔多安命一艘军舰停靠在伊斯坦布尔市中心的港口，供选民参观。他升级了对美国的批评，在选举前夕甚至宣称拜登总统曾试图推翻他的政权。 |
| Mr. Erdogan and members of his party also openly accused the opposition of cooperating with terrorists because they received the support of Turkey’s main pro-Kurdish party. Turkish nationalists often accuse Kurdish politicians of supporting or cooperating with Kurdish militants who have been at war with the Turkish state for decades. | 埃尔多安及其政党内部成员还公开指责反对派与恐怖分子勾结，因为他们得到了土耳其主要的亲库尔德政党的支持。土耳其民族主义者经常指责库尔德政客支持或与库尔德武装分子合作，这些武装分子与土耳其政府交战了数十年。 |
| Mr. Ogan, the candidate in third place, also spoke about prioritizing ways to send home the millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey and criticized the opposition coalition over its Kurdish support. In a runoff, the candidate who more effectively espouses nationalist positions could pick up more of Mr. Ogan’s supporters. | 得票率第三的候选人奥甘也提到要优先考虑如何将土耳其的数百万叙利亚难民送回去，并批评反对派联盟对库尔德人的支持。在决选中唱民族主义赞歌越多的候选人，获得奥甘支持者的选票可能也就越多。 |
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