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中国消费者回归,奢侈品牌在华销售重迎春天
In China, It’s Time to Splurge Again, and the Luxury Industry Is Relieved

来源:纽约时报    2023-05-04 10:39



        This time last year, Shanghai — China’s capital of fashion and luxury — was in the throes of a ruthlessly enforced Covid lockdown. The city’s glittering high-end malls and avenues lined with flagship stores stood practically empty.        去年的这个时候,中国的时尚和奢侈品之都上海正处于残酷无情的新冠疫情封控下。光彩夺目的高端购物中心和林立着品牌旗舰店的街道几乎空无一人。
        Today it is a different story. Huge crowds on a recent weekend flocked to top retail destinations on or near Nanjing Road, the hub of glamour in China ever since the country’s first large department stores began to open there in 1917.        如今的情况大不相同。最近的一个周末,大量人流涌进南京路或附近的高级购物场所,自从中国的第一家大型百货商店1917年在南京路开业以来,这里就一直是中国的魅力中心。
        “I splurge more extravagantly,” Sunny Zhang, 24, said as she waited in line to enter the Chanel store at Plaza 66 mall, where the corridors are lined with shops selling some of the world’s most expensive apparel. Ms. Zhang, who works for a consulting firm, used to buy six handbags a year. Now, she purchases up to five handbags a month.        “花钱更猛了,”24岁的苏妮·张(音)说道,她正排队等着进入上海恒隆广场的香奈儿专卖店,这个购物中心里尽是世界上最昂贵的服装品牌。张女士在一家咨询公司工作。在过去,她一年会买六个手袋。现在,她每月最多的时候买五个手袋。
        “I change my handbag every day,” Ms Zhang added. “I felt that everything was meaningless during the Shanghai lockdown, so we should enjoy the present moment in time.”        “每天换着背,”张女士补充道。“上海封城的时候就觉得没有意义,还是应该及时享乐为主。”
        Many Western fashion and luxury brands have been reaping the benefits of this renewed consumer mind-set. Last month, LVMH, the world’s largest luxury goods group by sales, and the owner of brands like Louis Vuitton, Tiffany & Company and Dior, posted a 17 percent increase in first-quarter revenue from a year earlier. Fashion and leather goods — the French company’s biggest division — were up 18 percent, driven in large part by the rebound in China.        消费者重新愿意花钱的心态已经令许多西方的时尚和奢侈品牌获益。上个月,全球销售额最大的奢侈品巨头LVMH公布的一季度收入同比增长了17%,该集团拥有路易威登、蒂芙尼和迪奥等品牌。这家法国公司的最大部门(时装和皮革制品)一季度收入同比增长了18%,这在很大程度上是受中国消费市场反弹的推动。
        Last week, LVMH shares soared to a record high, making it the first European company to surpass $500 billion in market value. Its French rival Hermès said sales in Asia (excluding Japan) were up 23 percent in the first quarter, “driven by a very good Chinese New Year.”        上周,LVMH股价飙升至历史新高,让其成为首家市值超过5000亿美元的欧洲公司。其法国竞争对手爱马仕表示,一季度的亚洲销售额(不包括日本)增长了23%,“这主要是受中国春季期间销量很好驱动。”
        And Brunello Cucinelli, purveyor of $4,000 blazers and the “quiet luxury” trend, posted a 56 percent surge in first-quarter sales. Luca Lisandroni, the Italian brand’s co-chief executive, called 2023 “a golden year” for the China market.        布鲁奈罗·库奇内利销售4000美元的西装外套和“低调奢华”潮流,其一季度销售额激增了56%。这个意大利品牌的联席首席执行官卢卡·利桑德罗尼表示,2023年对中国市场来说是个“黄金年”。
        Luxury spending in China is bouncing back even faster than the country’s overall economy. Retail sales of jewelry, gold and silver soared 37.4 percent in March from a year earlier, more than three times as fast as the rebound in overall retail sales, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. It was by far the biggest March on record for jewelry sales in China; indeed, March was the industry’s second-highest sales month ever outside the gift-giving season before Chinese New Year.        中国奢侈品消费的反弹速度甚至快于该国的整体经济。据中国国家统计局的数据,今年3月份珠宝、黄金和白银的零售额同比暴增了37.4%,是整体零售额反弹速度的三倍多。今年3月的珠宝销售额创下了中国的历史同期记录;实际上,今年3月的珠宝销售额仅次于春节前的送礼季。
        “We expect China to be the luxury industry’s key growth engine this year, especially given a slight deceleration in other core markets like the U.S. and Korea,” Edouard Aubin, an equity analyst at Morgan Stanley, said on a call last week.        “我们预计中国将成为今年奢侈品行业的主要增长引擎,尤其是考虑到美国和韩国等其他主要市场销售略有放缓,”摩根士丹利股票分析师爱德华·奥宾上周在电话会议上说。
        He added that big brands “at the top of the pricing pyramid” with status-symbol value like Chanel, Hermès and Louis Vuitton were outperforming rivals. Those include Gucci and Burberry, both brands that have recently had a change of designer at their helm.        他还说,香奈儿、爱马仕和路易威登等“处于价格金字塔顶端”、具身份象征价值的大品牌表现优于竞争对手,比如古驰和博柏利,这两个品牌最近都换了设计师。
        “Much of the initial spend driving the rebound is, for now, less to do with the middle class of China and more to do with rich people spending more,” Mr. Aubin said, noting that he expected a resurgence in middle-class spending to kick in later this year.        “目前,推动反弹的大部分早起消费与中国中产阶级的关系不大,更多的是与富人消费有关,”奥宾说道,并指出,他预计中产阶级的支出将在今年晚些时候重新开始。
        This desire for big-name luxury in China isn’t new. For more than a decade, the country, with 1.4 billion consumers, powered the Western luxury market, contributing as much as a third of market revenue. Two-thirds of that spending took place outside mainland China, as Chinese tourists flocked to Hong Kong, Tokyo, Paris and elsewhere to avoid their country’s steep import tariffs and consumption taxes.        中国人渴望大牌奢侈品并不是新鲜事。十多年来,这个拥有14亿消费者的国家一直是西方奢侈品的主要市场,为它们贡献了多达三分之一的营收,其中三分之二的营收发生在中国大陆以外的地方,因为中国游客为躲避国内的高额进口关税和消费税,涌向香港、东京、巴黎和其他地方购买奢侈品。
        But then came 2020, the worst year on record for the industry, as China closed its borders in response to the pandemic. Now, after three years of relying largely on online purchases, many shoppers in China exult in being able to touch fabrics, try on handbags and sunglasses and simply share companionship with others.        但奢侈品行业在2020年遭受了有记录以来最糟糕的一年,原因是中国为遏制新冠病毒大流行而关闭了边境。现在,在度过了以网购为主的三年后,中国的许多购物者为能够触摸面料、试手袋和太阳镜,以及与他人分享购物乐趣而感到非常高兴。
        In the Zhang Yuan neighborhood, where heavily restored buildings have polished wood frames and elegant stone columns, a crowd gathered and waited outside the Dior store to watch for celebrities. The onlookers did not have to wait long: Annie Yi, the famous Taiwanese singer, walked out of the store accompanied by a young woman who carried a white Dior bag big enough to hold a flat-panel television.        在上海张园,保护修缮后的石库门建筑有着打磨一新的木门框和优雅的石柱,人群聚集在迪奥店外等候名人出现。围观者没等太久,台湾著名歌手伊能静就在一名年轻女子的陪同下走出了商店,她提着一个大到可以装下一台平板电视的白色迪奥包。
        Zoe Zhou, who was at the Dior store looking for a handbag owned by a member of the K-pop band Blackpink, said she had seen a frenzy to buy luxury goods in her home city, Nanjing, with people lining up outside of stores at downtown malls.        佐伊·周(音)在迪奥店里寻找韩国流行组合Blackpink成员用的手袋,她说,她在老家南京已看到了购买奢侈品的狂潮,人们在市中心的商店外排起了长队。
        “Now that restrictions have been lifted, there are a lot of people buying handbags,” said Ms. Zhou, who was disappointed that the bag she wanted was sold out. “You can also go abroad. The price difference between domestic and foreign countries is quite large.”        “疫情放开,买包挺多,”周女士说,她想要的包已经卖光,为此很失望。“现在可以出国,国内外价格差挺多。”
        Many luxury brands have raised prices in recent months, notably in China. But traveling outside China remains far more difficult than it was before the pandemic.        近几个月来,许多奢侈品牌纷纷提价,尤其是在中国市场。但出国旅行仍然比新冠病毒大流行前困难得多。
        Airfares are higher, with a significantly reduced overseas flight schedule. As part of a national security campaign, the Chinese government has made it harder to obtain or renew passports.        现在的机票价格更高,飞往海外的航线明显减少。中国政府加强国家安全的努力也加大了人们获得或更换护照的难度。
        As domestic destinations like the duty-free tropical island of Hainan continue to gain popularity, and retail hot spots like Chengdu and Hangzhou continue to emerge, the pivot by Chinese shoppers to buying more domestically is expected to continue. Social media posts about stock shortages and long lines have also become common.        随着像热带岛屿海南岛的免税区等国内目的地继续受欢迎,成都和杭州等零售热门地点不断涌现,中国购物者转向境内消费的趋势预计将继续下去。社交媒体上,时常可以看到关于缺货和排长队的帖子。
        “The domestic recovery may be well underway, but international travel is still far from pre-Covid levels, nor do we think Chinese tourists will be returning at the volumes they once did to Europe any time soon,” said Thomas Chauvet, head of luxury goods research at Citi. Short-haul destinations like Hong Kong, Macau and possibly Japan, given the weak Japanese yen, may see the return of Chinese spending sooner, he added.        “国内奢侈品消费反弹也许已在顺利进行,但出国旅行仍远未达到新冠疫情前的水平,我们认为中国游客在短期内不会以之前的数量返回欧洲,”花旗研究奢侈品部门的负责人托马斯·肖韦说。他还表示,短途目的地可能会更快地看到中国消费者的回归,比如香港、澳门,考虑到日元目前疲软,可能还有日本。
        Not everyone has been coming out on top. Muted quarterly results last week from Kering, the home of Gucci and Balenciaga, reminded investors that a rising tide in China won’t necessarily lift all brands. The Paris-based group’s revenue grew 1 percent in the first three months of 2023, hampered by a slowdown in its U.S. and wholesale business, the dwindling popularity of Gucci and continuing fallout from a controversial advertising campaign published by Balenciaga at the end of last year.        并不是每个奢侈品牌的销售都在增长。上周,古驰和巴黎世家的母公司开云集团的季度业绩表现平平,这提醒了投资者,中国奢侈品市场水涨并非一定船高。总部位于巴黎的开云集团2023年前三个月的收入只增长了1%,原因是其在美国的业务和批发业务放缓、古驰人气下降,以及巴黎世家去年年底发布的广告活动引发的争议仍在发酵。
        According to Antoine Belge, an analyst at BNP Paribas Exane, “Strong brands with serious brand desirability are getting stronger.”        BNP Paribas Exane的分析师安特温·贝尓格说,“有巨大品牌吸引力的强有力品牌正变得越来越强大。”
        “Being bigger helps,” he added.        “品牌做大有帮助,”他补充道。
        The same goes for luxury markets. Claudia D’Arpizio, a senior partner at the consultancy Bain, estimated that the population of middle- and high-income consumers in mainland China will double to 500 million by 2030. By then, she predicted, the country will account for around 40 percent of global luxury purchases.        奢侈品市场也如此。贝恩咨询公司高级合伙人克劳迪娅·达尔皮齐奥估计,到2030年时,中国大陆中高收入消费者的数量将翻一番,达到5亿。她预测,届时中国人购买的奢侈品将占到全球的40%左右。
        “While African and Southeast Asian countries might be emerging luxury markets,” Ms. D’Arpizio said, “the sheer size of the China luxury market makes it unique and of great strategic importance.”        “虽然非洲和东南亚国家可能是新兴的奢侈品市场,”达尔皮齐奥说,“但中国奢侈品市场的庞大规模使其独一无二,而且在战略上具有重要意义。”
                
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