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| It is a turning point the world has not seen in centuries, and is unlikely to see again for centuries more. | 这是几个世纪以来世界从未出现过的转折点，而且在今后几个世纪里也不太可能再次看到。 |
| India is on the cusp of passing China in population, according to the latest U.N. estimates. At 1.428 billion people, India has already edged past mainland China, the data show, and it will soon surpass the mainland and Hong Kong combined. | 根据联合国的最新估计，印度人口即将超过中国。数据显示，印度人口为14.28亿，已经超过中国大陆，并将很快超过中国大陆和香港之和。 |
| With China’s population declining, the margin between the two countries will only grow as India becomes the most populous country in history. What had long been the world’s largest democracy is now, simply, the world’s largest everything. | 随着中国人口减少，印度成为历史上人口最多的国家，两国之间的差距只会不断扩大。长期以来，印度一直是世界上最大的民主国家，现在简单地说，世界上最大的一切都可以放在它的名下。 |
| China has taken advantage of its immensity to change the world more than any other nation over the past generation. Will India do the same over the generation to come? | 在过去一代人的时间里，中国利用其体量庞大的优势，对世界的改变超出任何其他国家。在接下来的一代人时间里，印度也能做到同样的事情吗？ |
| Can India take advantage of its size? | 印度能否利用其规模优势？ |
| India’s growth curve is the envy of aging countries like China, but the demographic future differs by region of the country. | 印度的增长曲线令中国等老龄化国家羡慕不已，但该国的人口前景却因地区而异。 |
| There was a time when India and China wanted to suppress the rate of population growth, by reducing the number of births. That era has long receded. | 曾经有一段时间，印度和中国都希望通过减少出生人数来抑制人口增速。那个时代早已远去。 |
| The gentle slope of the demographic curve propelling India into first place looks enviable to the many developed nations that are rapidly aging. Indians are living longer, and the number of babies being born each year has barely budged. Unlike China, which is facing the hangover of its decades under the one-child policy, India faces no steep drop-off and accompanying economic and social dangers. It has a young and expanding work force as China’s grays and contracts. | 将印度推至首位的人口曲线呈平缓上升，这令许多正在迅速老龄化的发达国家羡慕不已。印度人的寿命延长了，而每年出生的婴儿数量几乎没有变化。中国正面临着几十年来独生子女政策的后遗症，而印度则不同，它没有出现人口的急剧下降以及随之而来的经济和社会危险。中国的劳动力出现了老龄化和萎缩，而印度却拥有年轻且不断扩大的劳动力。 |
| In some of India’s regions, the population is still growing too fast for their economies, producing many more able-bodied young people than there are jobs to occupy them. In other parts, however – especially the better-developed south, where women have more education and family planning programs have proved successful – the population has already peaked. There, young families rarely produce more than two children. | 在印度的一些地区，人口增长对当地经济来说仍然过快，工作机会的增长远赶不上身体健康的年轻人数量的增长。然而，在其他地区——尤其是在较发达的南方，女性受教育程度更高，计划生育项目也已证明取得了成功——人口数量已经达到顶峰。在那些地方，年轻的家庭很少生育两个以上的孩子。 |
| The physical needs of nearly a billion and a half people are imposing a terrible strain on India’s environment. But as the country lifts itself from deepest poverty, it is no longer subject to the famines of old. Instead, its future as far and away the world’s biggest work force is leading some to hope for an “Indian century” in the making. | 近15亿人的物质需求给印度的环境带来了可怕的压力。但是随着这个国家摆脱了极度贫困，它不再像过去那样遭受饥荒的影响。作为世界最大劳动力市场的未来，该国让一些人对“印度世纪”充满期待。 |
| Does India stand to reap a “demographic dividend”? | 印度是否可以收获“人口红利”？ |
| Having a fast-expanding young work force could be a big opportunity — or a disaster. | 拥有快速增长的年轻劳动力可能是一个巨大的机会，也可能是一种灾难。 |
| India is a country primed to work. More than two-thirds of all Indians are between the ages of 15 and 59. The country’s ratio of children and retirees to working-age adults is remarkably low. | 印度是一个劳动人口充裕的国家。超过三分之二的印度人年龄在15岁到59岁之间。该国的儿童及退休人员同劳动年龄成年人之间的比例非常低。 |
| But this opportunity comes with huge challenges. That “demographic dividend” could instead become something like a disaster. In some recent years, India has squeaked past China to claim the title of fastest-growing major economy. But it has never expanded fast enough to produce sufficient formal employment for everyone. The country needs about nine million new jobs every year just to keep pace; the annual shortfall helps relegate many to India’s old standby, agricultural work. | 但这一机遇也伴随着巨大的挑战。这种“人口红利”反而可能变成一场灾难。最近几年，印度勉强超过中国成为增长最快的主要经济体。但其增长速度从未快到足以为所有人提供足够的正式就业机会。印度每年需要大约900万个新增工作岗位才能跟上人口的增长；每年的职位短缺使得许多人不得不从事印度的传统工作——农业。 |
| Most people in India lack the means to be “unemployed” – in the work force but without a job. Underemployment is the more discreet danger. Wages have been stagnant for eight years, according to an analysis by Jean Drèze, an economist at Delhi University. Economic growth without an equivalent increase in jobs makes India’s massively unequal society even more so, raising the potential for unrest. | 大多数印度人不具备“失业”条件（失业是指身为劳动力大军一员，但没有工作）。就业不足是一种更为隐蔽的危险。德里大学经济学家让·德罗兹的分析显示，该国工资水平已经停滞了八年。经济增长而就业岗位却没有相应地增加，这使得印度严重不平等的社会变得更加不平等，增加了动荡的可能性。 |
| Can India get more women into the work force? | 印度能让更多女性进入劳动力市场吗？ |
| Women work outside the home at lower rates in India than almost any other country, a huge roadblock for economic expansion. | 在印度，女性外出工作的比例几乎比所有其他国家都低，这是经济扩张的一个巨大障碍。 |
| India has one of the world’s lowest rates of formal employment for women: about one in five. China’s is almost double that rate, higher than the United States’ and the world average. An economy cannot meet its potential when it draws on the contributions of so few women. | 印度是世界上女性正式就业率最低的国家之一：大约是五分之一。中国的女性正式就业率几乎是印度的两倍，高于美国和世界平均水平。如果女性的贡献如此之少，一个经济体就无法发挥其潜力。 |
| Also worrisome, the rate has actually declined in India even as most of the country’s economic conditions have improved. The explanation favored by economists is that the jobs most women take are so poorly paid that as soon as a family can do without the extra income, wives stop working outside the home. | 同样令人担忧的是，尽管印度大部分地区的经济状况有所改善，但女性正式就业率实际上有所下降。经济学家认同的解释是，大多数女性所从事的工作报酬太低，以至于一旦家庭不再需要额外收入，妻子们就会停止外出工作。 |
| That does not mean women in India do not work hard. They are a visible presence in the 41 percent of society that is still in agriculture, and they carry nearly all of the household burdens. But so long as these women remain outside the formal work force, they cannot enter its most productive categories, in industry and services. Improved access to family planning, better education, efforts to change societal attitudes and measures to ensure women’s safety could help more women take on formal work. | 这并不意味着印度女性不努力工作。她们在仍从事农业生产的41%人口中占据显著位置，而且她们几乎承担了所有的家务负担。但是，只要这些女性仍然处于正规劳动力大军之外，她们就无法进入工业和服务业等生产力最高的领域。提高获得计划生育的机会、改善教育、努力改变社会态度，以及采取措施确保女性安全可以帮助更多女性从事正规工作。 |
| Can India chart its own path to prosperity? | 印度能找到自己的繁荣之路吗？ |
| India’s economic story will not be a repetition of China’s — which could offer advantages. | 印度的经济故事不会是中国的翻版——这一点可能带来优势。 |
| In the early 1990s, when China accelerated market reforms, it roughly followed the template of others in East Asia – Japan, South Korea, Taiwan – and became a champion of export-driven manufacturing. It built an economy that today is more than five times the size of India’s. | 上世纪90年代初，当中国加速市场改革时，它大致遵循了日本、韩国、台湾的东亚模式，成为出口导向型制造业的优胜者。如今，中国的经济规模是印度的五倍多。 |
| Western countries are now rushing to embrace India as an alternative to China. But the obstacles that have kept India from following the same program over the past 30 years remain in place: ineffective governance, insufficient infrastructure, scanty spending on primary education and health, and laws constraining the use of land and labor. | 现在，西方国家正争先恐后地把印度作为中国的替代品。但在过去30年里阻碍印度实现和中国同样增长计划的障碍仍然存在：治理效率低下、基础设施不足、初级教育和卫生支出不足，以及限制土地和劳动力使用的法律。 |
| A “Make in India” program championed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, now in its eighth year, has been slow to take off. Vietnam and Bangladesh have eaten up more of the work that has left China’s factory floors as labor costs there have risen. | 印度总理莫迪倡导的“印度制造”计划目前已进入第八个年头，但进展缓慢。随着中国劳动力成本的上升，越南和孟加拉国接下了更多从中国转移出来的工作。 |
| India’s economic story, however it turns out, will not be a repetition of China’s. There are many ways in which India can rise, especially with industrial manufacturing no longer occupying the central role in the world economy that it once did. | 无论结果如何，印度的经济故事都不会是中国的翻版。印度崛起的方式有很多，尤其是在工业制造业不再像过去那样在世界经济中占据中心地位的情况下。 |
| Services now make up a huge and exciting part of the Indian economy, augmented by a low-cost digital infrastructure that India developed on its own. Other glimmers are also emerging: Chip makers are looking to India as a high-end substitute for China; online services are allowing millions of young Indians to work abroad without leaving home; and even life in India’s villages is becoming more urbanized by the year. | 服务业现在是印度经济中令人兴奋的巨大组成部分，加上印度自己开发的低成本数字基础设施使得服务业得到了增强。其他曙光也在浮现：芯片制造商正将印度视为中国的高端替代品；在线服务让数以百万的印度年轻人不用离开家就能得到海外工作；甚至印度农村的生活也在逐年城市化。 |
| The only certainty about the new biggest country in the world is that it will be unlike any that came before it. | 唯一可以确定的是，这个新的世界人口最大国将不同于以往的任何一个国家。 |
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