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中国一季度GDP同比增4.5%,“清零”后经济开始复苏
‘Zero Covid’ Behind It, China’s Economy Starts to Recover

来源:纽约时报    2023-04-18 04:17



        China’s consumers, while wary of big-ticket purchases like cars or apartments, are spending again. Many factories are still running below capacity, but exports have strengthened. Even as construction of new housing is slowing, investment in infrastructure and manufacturing is robust.        中国消费者虽然对汽车或公寓等大件商品持谨慎态度,但他们又开始消费了。许多工厂仍在低于产能的状态下运行,但出口已经加强。尽管新的住房建设正在放缓,基础设施和制造业的投资却很强劲。
         Economic growth in China recovered faster than expected during the first three months of the year, after the government abruptly lifted stringent “zero Covid” measures in early December.        中国政府在去年12月初突然取消严格的新冠“清零”措施后,今年前三个月,中国经济的复苏超出了预期。
        The Chinese economy grew 4.5 percent from January through March compared with the same months last year, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday. Retail sales, a barometer of consumers’ willingness to spend, jumped 10.6 percent in March from a year earlier despite a slump in car sales.        中国国家统计局周二表示,与去年同期相比,中国经济在一季度同比增长4.5%。作为消费者消费意愿晴雨表的零售销售额在3月较去年同期增长10.6%,尽管汽车销量出现下滑。
        The stakes for the rest of the world are high. China has been the single largest engine of global growth for most of the past two decades. Despite simmering tensions with the United States, and growing disagreements with Europe, China remains highly interdependent with both of their economies. The International Monetary Fund warned last week that the world faces an increasing risk of a painful slowdown this year as central bankers in the West raise interest rates and banks stumble.        世界其他地区面临的经济风险很高。在过去20年的大部分时间里,中国一直是全球增长的最大单一引擎。尽管与美国的紧张关系不断加剧,与欧洲的分歧也越来越大,中国与这两个经济体仍然高度相互依存。国际货币基金组织上周警告,随着西方央行加息和银行陷入困境,世界经济今年面临严重下滑的风险日益增加。
        Tuesday’s report on gross domestic product indicates that China, the world’s second-largest economy, is coming back to life.        周二的国内生产总值报告表明,世界第二大经济体中国的经济正在复苏。
        “The quarterly growth is beginning to show a hoped-for healthy rebound,” said Louise Loo, an economist specializing in China in the Singapore office of Oxford Economics. “A very decent 4.5 percent year-over-year growth pace at this early stage of the reopening also provides the space for authorities to provide support to weaker segments of the economy as needed.”        “季度增长开始显示出人们期待的健康反弹,”牛津经济研究院新加坡办事处专门研究中国的经济学家卢姿蕙说。“在这个重新开放的早期阶段,4.5%的同比增长速度非常不错,这也为当局提供了必要的空间,使其能根据需要,为经济中较弱的部门提供支持。”
        China has taken steps to stimulate growth. The government is spending on high-speed rail lines, highways, bridges and other infrastructure, money that helps boost jobs and consumers. The central bank, the People’s Bank of China, told commercial banks last month that they could hold slightly smaller reserves against possible losses, freeing them to lend more.
        中国已采取措施刺激经济增长。政府正在为高速铁路、高速公路、桥梁和其他基础设施支出,这些钱有助于增加就业和消费者。中国央行中国人民银行上个月告诉商业银行,可以略微减少针对潜在亏损的准备金,从而使它们能够增加放贷。
        Growth in the first months of this year was a considerable improvement from the 2.9 percent pace in the final quarter of last year, when a wave of illness swept across the country in December after pandemic controls were lifted.        与去年第四季度2.9%的增长率相比,今年头几个月的增长有了相当大的改善。去年12月,在疫情控制解除后,一波疾病席卷了全国。
        So far, spending this year has been strongest for services like travel and meals. Big hotels in Beijing and Shanghai that turned off elevators last year and often had a single diner in 200-seat restaurants now find themselves with lines of people waiting for a table at breakfast. Most of that activity has been driven by Chinese consumers, as flights into the country have been slow to resume.        到目前为止,今年在旅游和餐饮等服务方面的支出最为强劲。去年,北京和上海的大型酒店关闭了电梯,200个座位的餐厅里经常只有一个人用餐,现在早餐时就有很多人排队等位。这些活动大部分是由中国消费者推动的,因为飞往中国的航班恢复得很慢。
        By contrast, a slow-motion housing crash remains a considerable drag on the economy. Construction of new homes, offices and stores shrank 5.8 percent in the first quarter compared to the same period last year.        相比之下,房地产的缓慢崩溃仍是经济的一大拖累。与去年同期相比,第一季度新住宅、办公用房和商店的建设减少了5.8%。
        The local economy in Suzhou, a city on the Yangtze River near Shanghai, shows many of the national trends. Consumers and companies are spending again. But there are considerable differences from neighborhood to neighborhood and even from business to business.        在位于上海附近的长江沿岸城市苏州,经济的很多方面体现出了这种全国性的趋势。消费者和企业重新开始花钱。但不同的社区,甚至不同的企业之间,存在着相当大的差异。
        Consumer spending picks up, but unevenly.        消费者支出有所回升,但并不均衡。
        At a street market in Suzhou, a butcher named Jiang Yongming stood behind a table covered in slabs of raw pork and complained about the lingering frugality of his neighborhood’s residents. People buying meat ask him to chop a large filet into two or three pieces and then buy only one of the pieces, he said.        在苏州的一个街市上,一位名叫蒋永明(音)的肉贩站在摆满生猪肉的桌子后面,抱怨邻里仍然舍不得花钱。他说,买肉的人会让他把一大块肉切成两到三块,然后只买一块。
        Liu Zhongyou, a catfish and clams vendor at a street market in Suzhou, has had a very different experience. He lost all his sales for a month last year when nearby restaurants were shut because of pandemic restrictions, but now the same eateries have resumed placing big orders.        同一个街市上卖鲶鱼和蛤蜊的刘忠友(音)的经历非常不同。去年,由于疫情限制,附近的餐馆都关门了,他失去了一个月的全部销售额,但现在,同样的餐馆又恢复了大额订单。
        “We were losing money during the epidemic — we had no customers,” Mr. Liu said. “It’s good now.”        “疫情期间我们一直在赔钱——我们没有客户,”刘忠友说。“现在好了。”
        The disparate experiences of two small businesses in the same market are indicative of China’s recovery — strong but uneven.        两家小商贩在同一个市场上截然不同的经历映射了中国经济的复苏——强劲、但不均衡。
        Retail sales in China had climbed only 3.5 percent in January and February compared with the same months last year. So the double-digit increase in March represented the first sign of a robust recovery. But the big jump is in comparison to an actual decline in March 2022, when Covid cases were rising, leading to the start of Shanghai’s two-month lockdown.        与去年同期相比,中国1月和2月的零售额仅增长了3.5%。因此,3月份的两位数增长代表了经济强劲复苏的第一个迹象。但这一大幅增长是与2022年3月的实际下降相比的,当时新冠病例上升,导致上海开始了为期两个月的封锁。
        And some sectors have not recovered at all from the pandemic. Movie theaters have been particularly hard hit: A third of them went under. Box office revenues were down 55 percent last month compared with the same month four years ago, according to Maoyan Entertainment, an online ticketing company in Beijing that tracks the broader industry.        一些行业还没有从疫情中恢复过来。电影院受到的打击尤其严重:有三分之一的影院倒闭。据追踪更广泛行业信息的北京在线票务公司猫眼娱乐的数据,上个月的票房收入与四年前同比下降了55%。
        The incomes of millions of Chinese were severely depressed during the pandemic, and remain weak. Unemployment among 16- to 24-year-olds actually increased in March, to 19.6 percent, from 18.1 percent in February, as many recent college graduates struggle to find white-collar jobs and are wary of working in factories. Many households are holding down spending until they rebuild savings.        疫情期间,成百上千万中国人的收入严重下降,目前仍很低。3月,16岁至24岁年轻人的失业率实际上有所上升,从2月的18.1%上升至19.6%,因为许多刚离校的大学毕业生很难找到白领工作,且不愿意接受工厂的岗位。许多家庭会抑制支出,直到重新存下一笔积蓄。
        Factories catch up on orders.        工厂在赶订单。
        Next to one of Suzhou’s iconic canals lined with weeping willows sits a repair shop for tabletop electric motors. The shop has long supplied the many small workshops nearby that make nails and screws for the city’s huge industrial sector.        在苏州一条垂柳成行的标志性运河旁,有一家台式电机维修店。长期以来,这家店一直为附近的许多小厂提供服务,这些厂为该市庞大的工业部门生产钉子和螺丝。
        The shop’s proprietor, who gave his family name, Guo, said that some workshops had failed during the pandemic but that the survivors were back in business. “It is basically much better than before, and the ones that have not closed down have basically recovered,” Mr. Guo said.        维修店的老板只透露自己姓郭(音),他说,疫情期间,一些小厂倒闭了,但幸存下来的那些得以重新开业。“基本上比以前好了很多,没有倒闭的基本恢复了,”郭先生说。
        Industrial production — the output of factories, mines and power plants — rose 3.9 percent in March from last year, an improvement from 2.4 percent in January and February. But industrial growth in March was still anemic by China’s standards. A sharp slowdown in the car industry was one of the main culprits.        工业生产——工厂、矿山和发电厂的产出——3月同比增长为3.9%,比1月和2月的2.4%有所改善。但以中国的标准衡量,3月的工业增长依然乏力。汽车工业的急剧放缓是主要原因之一。
        Car sales fell 13.4 percent in the first quarter. At the end of December, China let national subsidies expire for electric cars and reinstated a sales tax on gasoline-powered cars that had been suspended during the country’s “zero Covid” measures.        第一季度汽车销量下降13.4%。去年12月底,中国对电动汽车的国家补贴到期,并恢复了在中国“清零”措施期间暂停征收的汽油动力汽车销售税。
        Overall, exports are recovering, including a 14.8 percent jump in March compared with a year earlier. Factories are catching up on a backlog of orders that had accumulated during “zero Covid” lockdowns.        总体而言,出口正在复苏,3月同比增长14.8%。工厂正在赶“清零”封锁期间的积压订单。
        China is building rail lines, not apartments.        中国正在修建铁路,而不是住宅。
        Investment in new apartment buildings, roads, factories and other so-called fixed assets has long been a mainstay of the Chinese economy. Overall fixed-asset investment is growing, including a 5.1 percent increase in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. But investment is not following a pattern welcomed by Beijing.        长期以来,对新住宅楼、道路、工厂和其他所谓固定资产的投资一直是中国经济的支柱。整体固定资产投资正在增长,其中第一季度同比增长5.1%。但投资并未遵循中国政府所乐见的模式。
        Government spending on new rail lines, roads and other infrastructure rose 8.8 percent in the first quarter compared to the same months last year, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Manufacturing investment was up 7 percent.        国家统计局表示,与去年同期相比,政府一季度在新建铁路、公路和其他基础设施上的支出增长了8.8%。制造业投资增长了7%。
        But after running out of cash over the past two years and defaulting on dozens of overseas bonds, developers of residential real estate are starting very few new housing projects, although housing prices are starting to stabilize.        但在过去两年现金枯竭、出现数十项海外债务违约后,住宅房地产开发商几乎没有启动新的住宅项目,尽管房价正开始企稳。
        They are focused on finishing the apartment buildings they already started, many of which have been delayed. Stock market investors remain wary of the sector, with one big developer, Sunac China Holdings, seeing its share price fall 59 percent last week when it resumed trading after being suspended for a year.        开发商专注于完成已经开工的住宅楼,其中许多的进度已经滞后。股市投资者仍对该行业保持谨慎态度,大型开发商融创中国控股有限公司在停牌一年后,上周复牌时股价下跌59%。
        Even people who take delivery of new apartments from developers are often reluctant to spend money on painting and furnishing. At a paint store down the street from Mr. Guo’s electric repair shop, customers have disappeared.        即使是从开发商手中接过新公寓的人,也往往不愿意花钱粉刷和装修。在郭先生的电器修理店那条街上的一家油漆店里,完全见不到顾客。
        “We have no business now,” said the store owner, who gave her family name, Lu. “Nobody comes.”        “我们现在没有生意了,”自称姓陆(音)的店主说。“没有人。”
                
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