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为何中国的人口危机是一个全球问题
Why China’s Shrinking Population Is a Problem for Everyone

来源：纽约时报    2023-04-19 04:56



        Despite the rollback of China’s one-child policy, and even after more recent incentives urging families to have more children, China’s population is steadily shrinking — a momentous shift that will soon leave India as the world’s most populous nation and have broad rippling effects both domestically and globally.        尽管中国取消了独生子女政策，甚至在近年开始采取激励措施鼓励家庭生育更多子女，该国的人口仍在稳步减少——这一重大转变将很快使印度成为世界上人口最多的国家，并在中国和全球产生广泛的连锁反应。
        The change puts China on the same course of both aging and shrinking as many of its neighbors in Asia, but its path will have outsize effects not just on the regional economy, but on the world at large as well.
        这一变化使中国与许多亚洲邻国一样走上老龄化和萎缩的道路，但这条道路不仅会对地区经济产生巨大影响，而且会对整个世界产生巨大影响。
        Here’s why economists and others are alarmed by the developments.        以下是经济学家和其他人对事态发展感到担忧的原因。
        China’s shrinking work force could hobble the global economy.        中国不断萎缩的劳动力可能会拖累全球经济。
        For years, China’s massive working-age population powered the global economic engine, supplying the factory workers whose cheap labor produced goods that were exported around the world.        多年来，中国庞大的劳动适龄人口为全球经济引擎提供了动力，廉价的工厂工人生产出口到世界各地的产品。
        In the long run, a shortage of factory workers in China — driven by a better-educated work force and a shrinking population of young people — could raise costs for consumers outside China, potentially exacerbating inflation in countries like the United States that rely heavily on imported Chinese products. Facing rising labor costs in China, many companies have already begun shifting their manufacturing operations to lower-paying countries like Vietnam and Mexico.        从长远来看，中国工厂工人的短缺——由劳动力教育水平提高和年轻人不断减少所推动——可能会提高中国以外消费者的成本，潜在地加剧美国等严重依赖从中国进口产品的国家的通货膨胀。面对中国不断上涨的劳动力成本，许多公司已经开始将制造业务转移到越南和墨西哥等工资较低的国家。
        A shrinking population could also mean a decline in spending by Chinese consumers, threatening global brands dependent on sales of products to China, from Apple smartphones to Nike sneakers.        人口减少还可能意味着中国消费者支出的减少，威胁到从苹果智能手机到耐克运动鞋等依赖向中国销售产品的全球品牌。
        The data is bad news for China’s crucial housing market.        这些数据对中国至关重要的房地产市场来说是个坏消息。
        In the short term, a plunging birthrate poses a major threat to China’s real estate sector, which accounts for roughly a quarter of the country’s economic output. Population growth is a key driver of housing demand, and homeownership is the most important asset for many Chinese people. During widespread pandemic lockdowns that dampened consumer spending and export growth, China’s economy became even more dependent on the ailing housing sector.        在短期内，出生率下降对中国的房地产业构成了重大威胁，房地产业约占中国经济产出的四分之一。人口增长是住房需求的主要驱动因素，对许多中国人来说，住房是最重要的资产。在大范围的疫情封锁期间，消费支出和出口增长受到抑制，中国经济更加依赖于境况不佳的房地产行业。
        The government recently intervened to help distressed real estate developers, in an attempt to stem the fallout from its housing crisis.        政府最近出手干预，帮助陷入困境的房地产开发商，试图遏制其住房危机的影响。
        China’s shrinking work force may not be able to support its growing, aging population.        中国不断萎缩的劳动力可能无法养活不断增长的老龄化人口。
        With fewer working-age people in the long run, the government could struggle to sustain an enormous population that is growing older and living longer. A 2019 report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicted that the country’s main pension fund would run out of money by 2035, in part because of the shrinking work force.        从长远来看，由于劳动年龄人口的减少，日益老龄化和长寿的庞大人口可能令政府难以维持。中国社会科学院2019年的一份报告预测，该国的主要养老基金将在2035年之前耗尽，部分原因是劳动力萎缩。
        Economists have compared China’s demographic crisis to the one that stalled Japan’s economic boom in the 1990s.        经济学家将中国的人口危机与上世纪90年代导致日本经济停滞的人口危机相提并论。
        But China does not have the same resources as a country like Japan to provide a safety net for its aging population. Its households live on much lower incomes on average than in the U.S. and elsewhere. Many older Chinese residents rely on state pension payments as a key source of income during retirement.        但中国没有像日本等国那样的资源，来为其老龄化人口提供社会保障。中国家庭的平均收入远低于美国和其他国家。许多中国老年人依靠国家养老金作为退休期间的主要收入来源。
        China also has some of the lowest retirement ages in the world, with most workers retiring by 60. The situation has put a tremendous strain not only on state pension funds, but also on the country’s hospital system.        中国也是世界上退休年龄最低的国家之一，大多数工人在60岁之前退休。这种情况给国家养老基金和医院系统都构成巨大压力。
        The crisis has been decades in the making.        这场危机已经酝酿了几十年。
        China introduced the one-child policy in the late 1970s, arguing that it was necessary to keep population growth from reaching unsustainable levels. The government imposed onerous fines on most couples who had more than one child, and compelled hundreds of millions of Chinese women to have abortions. Many families favored boys over girls, often aborting baby girls or abandoning them at birth, resulting in a huge surplus of single men in the Chinese population.        中国在20世纪70年代末推出了独生子女政策，认为有必要防止人口增长达到不可持续的水平。政府对大多数生育一个以上孩子的夫妇处以巨额罚款，并迫使数亿中国女性堕胎。许多家庭重男轻女，经常打掉女婴，或在出生时抛弃她们，导致中国人口中单身男性大量过剩。
        China announced the relaxing of the family size restrictions in 2013, but many demographic experts said the change had come too late to change the country’s population trajectory.        中国在2013年宣布放宽家庭规模限制，但许多人口专家表示，这一变化来得太晚，无法改变中国的人口轨迹。
        There are no easy fixes.        没有简单的解决办法。
        The government’s efforts to start a baby boom to solve the demographic crisis — including offering cash handouts and easing the one-child policy to allow for three — have failed to stabilize falling birthrates. Educated Chinese women are increasingly delaying marriage and choosing not to have children, deterred by the high costs of housing and education.        政府试图启动婴儿潮，以此解决人口危机——包括提供现金补贴和放宽独生子女政策，允许生三胎——但依然未能稳定不断下降的出生率。由于高昂的住房和教育成本，越来越多受过教育的中国女性推迟结婚，选择不生孩子。
        China has also been unwilling to loosen immigration rules to boost the population, and has historically issued relatively few green cards to replenish its shrinking work force.        中国也不愿意放松移民政策来增加人口，而且历来很少发放绿卡来补充不断萎缩的劳动力。
        To address the labor shortage, China has been outsourcing low-skilled production to other countries in Asia, and adding more automation to its factories, hoping to rely more on artificial intelligence and technology sectors for future growth.        为了解决劳动力短缺问题，中国在将低技能的生产外包给亚洲其他国家，并在工厂中增加自动化程度，希望更多地依靠人工智能和技术部门来实现未来的增长。
                
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