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| Washington: Credit portfolio managers are forecasting a rise in corporate defaults in the coming year while more than four-out-of-five participants see a chance of a US recession in 2023, according to a survey by the International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers. |
| The poll found that 81 percent of fund managers see defaults picking up in the next 12 months, compared with 80 percent in the survey last December, as reduced bank liquidity and credit risk concerns land on top of macroeconomic issues. For North American corporates, 86 percent of respondents see defaults rising, while 91 percent see defaults rising in Europe. |
| “Our members have expected to see the impact of rising interest rates for some time and we’re beginning to see more credit stress and defaults in corporate borrowers now,” Som-lok Leung, IACPM’s executive director, wrote in a statement. “Unfortunately, this could take some time to work its way through the system.” |
| Survey respondents are also predicting a recession in the US, with 84 percent expecting one to occur sometime this year. That’s higher than the 61 percent of participants who see a recession this year in Europe and the UK. |
| IACPM survey participants see certain industries like health care, medium-sized tech companies and defense manufacturers facing tough times in the current environment. Commercial real estate was also cited, given work-from-home trends lowering office occupancy rates and property owners having to refinance in a higher interest rate environment. |
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