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| Leak or hack? Information or disinformation? A coup for Russia or a ploy by the United States? |
| 是泄密还是黑客？是信息还是虚假信息？是俄罗斯的政变，还是美国的阴谋？ |
| Days after U.S. intelligence documents, some marked “top secret,” were found circulating on social media, questions remain about how dozens of pages from Pentagon briefings became public and how much stock to put in them. |
| 一些美国情报文件，其中部分标有“绝密”，已在社交媒体上流传数日，关于五角大楼的这些数十页简报如何被公之于世，以及其中内容的可信度，仍有许多疑问。 |
| Here is what we know about the documents. |
| 以下是我们对这些文件的了解。 |
| Are the documents real? |
| 这些文件是真的吗？ |
| Yes, officials say — at least, for the most part. |
| 是的，官员们声称至少大部分是真的。 |
| U.S. officials are alarmed at the exposure of secret information, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation is working to determine the source of the leak. |
| 美国官员对这些机密信息的泄露感到惊讶，联邦调查局正在确定泄露的源头。 |
| Some of the documents appear to have been altered, officials say. It is unclear who doctored the reports or why they did so. Whatever the reason, some of the material, military analysts, say, overstates American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understates how many Russian troops have been killed since Moscow’s invasion of its neighbor last year. |
| 官员称部分文件似乎被篡改。尚不清楚篡改者是何人，也不清楚此举的目的。军事分析人士称，不论原因何在，其中一些材料夸大了美国对乌克兰战争死亡人数的估计，并低估了俄军自去年入侵邻国以来的阵亡人数。 |
| Where did the materials come from? |
| 这些材料出自何处？ |
| The evidence that this is a leak, and not a hack, appears strong. |
| 有充分证据指出，这是一次泄密而非黑客事件。 |
| The material may be popping up Whac-a-Mole style on platforms like Twitter, 4chan and the Telegram messaging app — to say nothing of a Discord channel dedicated to the video game Minecraft — but what is being circulated are photographs of printed briefing reports. |
| 这些材料源源不绝地出现在Twitter、4chan和Telegram等通讯应用平台，连Discord一个专门讨论电子游戏《我的世界》(Minecraft)的频道都不能幸免。但流传开来的内容实际上是纸质报告的照片。 |
| The look like hastily taken photographs of pieces of paper sitting atop what appears to be a hunting magazine. Former officials who have reviewed the material say it appears that a classified briefing was folded up, placed in a pocket and then taken out of a secure area to be photographed. |
| 照片似乎是在匆忙间拍下的，这些纸张看起来被放在了一本狩猎杂志上。看过材料的前任官员表示，这份机密简报可能被折叠起来放入衣袋，然后在一个安全地点被拿出来拍照。 |
| Some documents were specifically marked for U.S. eyes only, increasing the likelihood that an American official leaked the information. |
| 一些文件被特别标记为仅限美国政府查阅，因此泄露者是美国官员的可能更大。 |
| What did we learn about the war in Ukraine? |
| 我们由此能对乌克兰战争有些什么了解？ |
| Though the documents may not fundamentally alter the understanding of what is happening on the battlefield, they may offer insights — or at least tantalizing clues — to the trained eye of a Russian war planner. |
| 尽管这些文件可能不会彻底颠覆对战场情况的认知，但仍可能让敏锐的俄罗斯战争规划者收获一些洞见——或至少是有利的线索。 |
| The documents do not contain specific battle plans, including about the Ukrainian counteroffensive expected in the next month so. But they detail secret American and NATO plans for building up the Ukrainian military ahead of that offensive. |
| 这些文件不涉及具体作战计划，比如乌克兰预计在下个月进行的反攻，但仍详细介绍了美国和北约在反攻前加强乌克兰军事力量的计划。 |
| They also suggest that the Ukrainian forces are in more dire straits than their government has acknowledged publicly. |
| 文件还表明乌军处境比乌克兰政府公开承认的要更困难。 |
| Without an influx of munitions, the documents show, the air defense system that has keep the Russian Air Force at bay may soon collapse, allowing President Vladimir V. Putin to unleash his fighter jets in ways that could change the course of the war. |
| 文件显示，如果没有大量弹药补充，遏制俄罗斯空军的防空系统可能很快就会崩溃，从而让普京总统派出他的战机，改变战争的进程。 |
| And the mere fact that the materials leaked — and in particular the confirmation they offered that the U.S. government spies on allies and adversaries alike — may prove damaging to the generally unified coalition that has emerged to help Ukraine fend off the Russian invasion. It may also make allies think twice about sharing sensitive information. |
| 光是这些材料被泄露的事实——尤其是它们证实了美国政府对盟友以及对手的监视——就可能损害为帮助乌克兰抵御俄罗斯入侵而形成的大体统一的同盟。这也可能导致盟友对于分享敏感信息更加迟疑。 |
| Has the U.S. penetrated Russian intelligence? |
| 美国是否渗透了俄罗斯情报机构？ |
| The leaked Pentagon documents reveals how deeply the United States has burrowed into Russia’s security and intelligence services, allowing Washington to warn Ukraine about planned strikes and gain insights into the strength of Moscow’s war machine. |
| 泄露的五角大楼文件揭示了美国对俄罗斯安全和情报部门的深入了解，以至于华盛顿能够就计划好的袭击向乌克兰发出警告，同时也能洞察俄罗斯战争机器的实力。 |
| The material reinforces an idea that intelligence officials have long acknowledged: The United States has a clearer understanding of Russian military operations than it does of Ukrainian planning. |
| 这些材料印证了一种情报官员一直认可的观点，即美国对俄罗斯军事行动的了解比对乌克兰的计划更加清楚。 |
| The military apparatus is so deeply compromised, the documents suggest, that American intelligence has been able to obtain daily real-time warnings on the timing of Moscow’s strikes and even its specific targets. |
| 这些文件说明俄罗斯军事机器已经严重受损，以至于美国情报机构每天都能获取有关俄罗斯何时发动袭击、甚至其袭击具体目标的实时警告。 |
| That may now change. |
| 接下来情况可能就不同了。 |
| The leak has the potential to do real damage to Ukraine’s war effort by exposing which Russian agencies the United States knows the most about, giving Moscow a potential opportunity to cut off the sources of information. |
| 此次泄密事件可能会对乌克兰的备战造成巨大打击，因为它暴露了美国最了解哪些俄罗斯机构，从而让俄罗斯有机会切断信息来源。 |
| Disinformation? If so, whose? |
| 虚假信息？如果存在，来自何方？ |
| Officials in Washington have described the documents’ release as a major intelligence breach, but in Kyiv and Moscow, there is agreement on two things: The information is suspect, and the goal is subterfuge. They just don’t agree on who is behind it. |
| 华盛顿官员将这些文件的泄露称为一次重大情报泄露，但基辅和莫斯科在两件事上有共识：这些信息是可疑的，目的是为了混淆视听。双方只是在谁是幕后黑手的问题上意见相左。 |
| In a statement to The New York Times, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said the documents were filled with “fictional information.” |
| 乌克兰总统泽连斯基的顾问米哈伊洛·波多利亚克在给《纽约时报》的一份声明中表示，这些文件满是“编造的信息”。 |
| “There is not the smallest doubt that this is yet another element of hybrid warfare,” he said. “Russia is trying to influence Ukrainian society, sow fear, panic, mistrust and doubt. It’s typical behavior.” |
| “毫无疑问，这是这场混合战争的另一个要素，”他说。“俄罗斯正在试图影响乌克兰社会，播下恐惧、惊慌、不信任和怀疑的种子。这是典型的手段。” |
| The goal, the Ukrainians say, is to undercut the coming counteroffensive. |
| 乌克兰方面声称，此举目的在于破坏即将发起的反攻。 |
| In Russia, pro-war military bloggers also pointed to the Ukrainian counteroffensive — but drew a different conclusion. |
| 在俄罗斯，支持战争的军事博主也提到了乌军的反攻，但得出了不同的结论。 |
| A post on Grey Zone, a Telegram channel associated with the Wagner militia, said: “We should not exclude the high probability that such a leak of classified information at the exact moment of the intensification of hostilities, and after the fact of the accomplished events displayed in the documents, is disinformation of Western intelligence in order to mislead our command to identify the enemy’s strategy in the upcoming counteroffensive.” |
| 在与瓦格纳集团有关的Telegram频道“灰色地带(Grey Zone)”中，有篇帖子这样写道：“不应排除一种很可能的情况，即在恰逢敌对行动升级的时刻，在文件所述事件已经实现之后，这样的机密信息泄露是西方情报部门放出的烟雾弹，目的是误导我军指挥对敌方准备发起的反攻战略的判断。” |
| In other Russian Telegram channels, prominent voices say the original documents showed higher Russian losses, part of a “Western influence” operation intended to “ to instill poor morale in Russia and Russian forces,” according to the head of a British firm that tracks disinformation. |
| 一家追踪虚假信息的英国公司的负责人表示，在其他俄罗斯Telegram频道中，一些知名人士宣称原文件显示俄罗斯损失更大，这属于“西方的影响”行动，旨在“打击俄罗斯和俄军的士气”。 |
| What other countries are named? |
| 还有哪些国家被提及？ |
| The leak appears to go well beyond classified material on Ukraine. Security analysts who have reviewed the documents on social media sites say the growing trove also includes sensitive briefing material on Canada, China, Israel and South Korea, in addition to the Indo-Pacific military theater and the Middle East. |
| 此次泄露事件的相关内容似乎远不止于乌克兰问题的机密材料。对社交媒体上流传的文件进行过审查的安全分析人士表示，越来越多的文件还涉及到关于加拿大、中国、以色列、韩国的敏感简报材料，还有印度-太平洋战区和中东的情况。 |
| Among the disclosures: |
| 被披露的内容包括： |
| • A hacking group under the guidance of Russia’s Federal Security Service may have compromised a Canadian gas pipeline company in February and caused damage to its infrastructure. |
| • 受命于俄罗斯联邦安全局的一个黑客组织在今年2月入侵了加拿大一家天然气管道公司，并对其基础设施造成了破坏。 |
| • A Pentagon assessment concluded that the leadership of the Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service, had encouraged the agency’s staff and Israeli citizens to participate in the antigovernment protests that roiled the country in March. Israel officials disputed the report. |
| • 五角大楼的一项评估得出结论，以色列对外情报机构摩萨德的领导层鼓励该机构人员和以色列公民参加今年3月席卷该国的反政府抗议活动。以色列官员否认了这一情况。 |
| • Officials in South Korea, a key American ally, torn between Washington pressure to help supply ammunition to Ukraine and its official policy of not providing lethal weapons to countries at war, feared that the United States might divert South Korean arms to Kyiv. |
| 美国重要盟友韩国的官员担心美国可能将韩国的武器转移到基辅，在华盛顿要求向乌克兰提供弹药的压力和不向交战国提供致命性武器的官方政策之间纠结不已。 |
| • The Russian military may be flailing, but the private Wagner mercenary group — led by an ally of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia — is flourishing in much of the world. Wagner is working to thwart American interests in Africa and has explored branching out to Haiti, right under the nose of the United States. |
| 俄军可能节节败退，但由俄罗斯总统普京的一个盟友领导的私人雇佣军组织瓦格纳正在全世界许多地区大行其道。瓦格纳正努力阻挠美国在非洲谋取利益，并尝试向海地扩张势力，给美国制造近忧。 |
| • To brace for the introduction of advanced NATO-supplied tanks on Ukraine’s battlefields, Russian forces are preparing to pay a bonus to troops who manage to damage or destroy one. |
| • 为了应对乌克兰战场上将出现的由北约提供的先进坦克，俄军计划向破坏或摧毁任一坦克的士兵发放奖金。 |
| • One of the documents lays out an American assessment of scenarios that could lead Israel to provide weapons to Ukraine, in contravention of current Israeli policy. |
| • 其中一份文件列出了美国对可能促使以色列向乌克兰提供武器的几种情形做出的评估，提供武器违背了以色列目前的政策。 |
| • U.S. officials prepared a dire assessment of one of the longest-running battles of the war, in Bakhmut. |
| • 美国准备了一份十分悲观的巴赫穆特战况评估，这是乌克兰战争中持续时间最长的战役之一。 |
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