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| WASHINGTON — Finally, there is a peace deal of sorts in the Middle East. Not between Israel and the Arabs, but between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which have been at each other’s throats for decades. And brokered not by the United States but by China. |
| 华盛顿——中东终于达成了某种和平协议。不是在以色列和阿拉伯国家之间，而是沙特阿拉伯和伊朗，这两个国家几十年来一直针锋相对。此外，协议的达成不是由美国促成，而是中国。 |
| This is among the topsiest and turviest of developments anyone could have imagined, a shift that left heads spinning in capitals around the globe. Alliances and rivalries that have governed diplomacy for generations have, for the moment at least, been upended. |
| 大逆转超出了所有人的想象，让各国政府都感到匪夷所思。至少在目前，几十年来主导外交的联盟和对手关系被颠覆。 |
| The Americans, who have been the central actors in the Middle East for the past three-quarters of a century, almost always the ones in the room where it happened, now find themselves on the sidelines during a moment of significant change. The Chinese, who for years played only a secondary role in the region, have suddenly transformed themselves into the new power player. And the Israelis, who have been courting the Saudis against their mutual adversaries in Tehran, now wonder where it leaves them. |
| 在过去的四分之三个世纪里，美国人一直是中东的核心角色，有事发生时它几乎都在场，但现在却发现自己在一个出现重大变化的时刻被挤到了一边。多年来在该地区只扮演次要角色的中国人突然摇身一变成了新的重要选手。以色列人一直在讨好沙特人，以便对抗他们在德黑兰的共同对手，现在他们一时找不着自己的位置。 |
| “There is no way around it — this is a big deal,” said Amy Hawthorne, deputy director for research at the Project on Middle East Democracy, a nonprofit group in Washington. “Yes, the United States could not have brokered such a deal right now with Iran specifically, since we have no relations. But in a larger sense, China’s prestigious accomplishment vaults it into a new league diplomatically and outshines anything the U.S. has been able to achieve in the region since Biden came to office.” |
| “绕不过去的——这是一件大事，”华盛顿非营利组织中东民主项目的研究副主任艾米·霍桑说。“没错，美国现在不可能专门跟伊朗斡旋这样的协议，因为我们与伊朗没有外交关系。但从更大的意义上说，中国取得的这一卓越成就使其在外交方面上了一个台阶，并超越了自拜登上任以来美国在该地区取得的任何成就。” |
| President Biden’s White House has publicly welcomed the re-establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and expressed no overt concern about Beijing’s part in bringing the two back together. Privately, Mr. Biden’s aides suggested too much was being made of the breakthrough, scoffing at suggestions that it indicated any erosion in American influence in the region. |
| 拜登总统的白宫公开欢迎沙伊恢复外交关系，并没有对北京在促使两国重归于好的过程中所发挥的作用表现出公开的担忧。私下里，拜登的助手们表示，人们对这一突破评价过高，而且并不认为这就表明美国在该地区的影响力遭到了削弱。 |
| And it remained unclear, independent analysts said, how far the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran would actually go. After decades of sometimes violent competition for leadership in the Middle East and the broader Islamic world, the decision to reopen embassies that were closed in 2016 represents only a first step. |
| 独立分析人士表示，目前尚不清楚沙伊之间的和解究竟能走多远。重开2016年关闭的大使馆的决定只是第一步，此前，中东和更广泛的伊斯兰世界已经经历了数十年的领导权争夺，有时甚至不无暴力。 |
| It does not mean that the Sunnis of Riyadh and the Shiites of Tehran have put aside all of their deep and visceral differences. Indeed, it is conceivable that this new agreement to exchange ambassadors may not even be carried out in the end, given that it was put on a cautious two-month timetable to work out details. |
| 这并不意味着利雅得的逊尼派和德黑兰的什叶派已经放下了心结。事实上，鉴于双方谨慎地安排了两个月的时间来敲定细节，就算这项重新派驻大使的协议最终无法执行，也并非不可想象。 |
| The key to the agreement, according to what the Saudis told the Americans, was a commitment by Iran to stop further attacks on Saudi Arabia and curtail support for militant groups that have targeted the kingdom. Iran and Saudi Arabia have effectively fought a devastating proxy war in Yemen, where Houthi rebels aligned with Tehran battled Saudi forces for eight years. A truce negotiated with the support of the United Nations and the Biden administration last year largely halted hostilities. |
| 根据沙特人告诉美国人的说法，该协议的关键是伊朗承诺停止对它的进一步袭击，并减少对以沙特为目标的激进组织的支持。伊朗和沙特实际上在也门打了一场伤亡惨重的代理人战争，在那里，与德黑兰结盟的胡塞叛军与沙特军队作战了八年。去年在联合国和拜登政府的支持下谈判达成的停战协议基本上停止了敌对行动。 |
| The U.N. estimated early last year that more than 377,000 people had died during the war from violence, starvation or disease. At the same time, the Houthis have fired hundreds of missiles and armed drones at Saudi Arabia. |
| 联合国去年初估计，战争期间有超过37.7万人死于暴力、饥饿或疾病。与此同时，胡塞武装向沙特阿拉伯发射了数以百计的导弹和武装无人机。 |
| Saudi Arabia had sought a suspension of hostilities with Iran for years, first through talks held in Baghdad that eventually went nowhere. Biden administration officials said the Saudis briefed them about the discussions in Beijing, but the Americans expressed skepticism that Iran will live up to its new commitments. |
| 多年来，沙特一直寻求暂停与伊朗的敌对行动，双方首先在巴格达举行了会谈，最终无果而终。拜登政府官员表示，沙特向他们介绍了北京的讨论情况，但美国人对伊朗是否会履行新承诺表示怀疑。 |
| Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia who had strong ties with President Donald J. Trump and has helped secure $2 billion in financing for the investment firm set up by Jared Kushner, the former president’s son-in-law, has been playing an intricate diplomatic game since Mr. Biden came to office. |
| 沙特阿拉伯事实上的领导人穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼王储与唐纳德·特朗普总统关系密切，并帮助这位前总统女婿贾里德·库什纳设立的投资公司获得了20亿美元的融资，自拜登上任以来，伊朗一直在进行复杂的外交博弈。 |
| Mr. Biden once vowed to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” state for orchestrating the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi columnist for The Washington Post living in the United States. But he reluctantly agreed to visit the kingdom last year as he was seeking to lower gas prices that had been elevated in part by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. |
| 由于沙特策划暗杀居住在美国的《华盛顿邮报》沙特专栏作家贾迈勒·卡舒吉一事，拜登曾发誓要让其成为一个“被孤立”的国家。但去年，他被迫同意访问该国，寻求降低天然气价格。在一定程度上，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰导致了天然气价格的上涨。 |
| In trying to smooth over relations with the Saudis, Mr. Biden endured blistering criticism for a much-publicized fist bump with the crown prince, who was determined by the C.I.A. to be responsible for Mr. Khashoggi’s murder and dismemberment. |
| 在试图缓和与沙特关系的过程中，拜登因为与王储被广泛报道的碰拳问好行为而受到激烈批评。中央情报局认定，王储应对卡舒吉的谋杀及肢解负责。 |
| But Mr. Biden and his team were infuriated when, in their view, the Saudis later breached the unannounced agreement reached during that visit and curbed oil production last fall to keep the price of gas elevated. In that instance, the U.S. officials believed Prince Mohammed was siding with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, and Mr. Biden threatened unspecified “consequences,” only to back off without imposing any. |
| 但在后来，拜登和他的团队认为，沙特违反了那次访问期间达成的未经宣布的协议，在去年秋天限制石油产量，以使天然气价格保持在高位，这让拜登及团队非常愤怒。有鉴于此，美国官员认为穆罕默德王储站在了俄罗斯总统普京一方，拜登威胁沙特要承担未指明的“后果”，但后来并没有任何动静。 |
| Daniel C. Kurtzer, a former ambassador to Israel and Egypt now at Princeton University, said the shifting dynamics represented by the Chinese-brokered pact still pose a challenge to the Biden administration when it would prefer to focus elsewhere. |
| 前美国驻以色列和埃及大使、目前在普林斯顿大学任职的丹尼尔·库尔策表示，当拜登政府更愿意把注意力放在其他地方时，中国促成的协议所代表的变化仍对拜登政府构成挑战。 |
| “It’s a sign of Chinese agility to take advantage of some anger directed at the United States by Saudi Arabia and a little bit of a vacuum there,” he said. “And it’s a reflection of the fact that the Saudis and Iranians have been talking for some time. And it’s an unfortunate indictment of U.S. policy.” |
| “这体现了中国的机敏，它利用了沙特阿拉伯对美国的一些愤怒，以及其中的一些真空，”他说。“这也反映出沙特和伊朗已经谈判了一段时间的事实。不幸的是，这是对美国政策的声讨。” |
| While its diplomatic efforts helped calm hostilities in Yemen, the Biden administration has failed to revive a nuclear agreement with Iran negotiated in 2015 by President Barack Obama and later abandoned by Mr. Trump. Two years of diplomacy have stalled and the U.N. watchdog agency says Iran now has enough highly enriched uranium to build several nuclear weapons if it chooses to, although it has not perfected a warhead yet. |
| 虽然拜登政府的外交努力有助于平息也门的敌对行动，但它未能恢复2015年由贝拉克·奥巴马总统与伊朗谈判达成的核协议，该协议后来被特朗普放弃。两年的外交努力陷入停滞，联合国监督机构表示，伊朗现在拥有足够的高浓缩铀，如果它愿意，可以制造几枚核武器，尽管它还没有完善核弹头的技术。 |
| Hampered by American sanctions, Iran has moved to deepen its relations with Russia and now China. Tehran has provided badly needed drones for Russia to use in its war in Ukraine, making it a more critical partner for Mr. Putin’s Moscow than ever before. |
| 由于受到美国制裁的阻碍，伊朗已经开始加深与俄罗斯的关系，现在又与中国增进往来。德黑兰为俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争中提供了其急需的无人机，从而成为普京领导下莫斯科的合作伙伴，比以往任何时候都更加重要。 |
| In turning to Beijing to mediate with the Saudis, Iran is elevating China in the region and seeking to escape the isolation imposed by Washington. And Israel finds its hopes for an anti-Iranian coalition with Saudi Arabia evidently dashed. |
| 通过求助北京与沙特进行斡旋，伊朗正在提升中国在该地区的地位，并寻求摆脱华盛顿施加的孤立。而以色列发现，它与沙特阿拉伯建立反伊朗联盟的希望显然破灭了。 |
| Biden administration officials say Iran is under real pressure and suffering from deep economic distress because of American sanctions. But that does not mean China, one of the signatories to the original nuclear deal, wants Iran to have a nuclear weapon either. If Beijing has new sway in Tehran, American officials hope perhaps it could use it to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. |
| 拜登政府官员说，由于美国的制裁，伊朗正面临真正的压力，并且遭受严重的经济困境。但这并不意味着作为最初核协议的签署国之一的中国也希望伊朗拥有核武器。如果北京对德黑兰有了新的影响力，美国官员希望，或许可以利用中国来遏制伊朗的核野心。 |
| Nonetheless, it is disconcerting for many veteran American policymakers to see China playing such an outsize role in a region after years of making inroads. |
| 尽管如此，对于许多资深的美国政策制定者来说，看到中国在一个地区经多年发展后产生如此大的作用，他们感到不安。 |
| “This is the latest reminder that the competition is on a global stage,” said Mara Rudman, executive vice president for policy at the Center for American Progress and a former Middle East envoy under Mr. Obama. “It is by no means limited to the Indo-Pacific, just as it is not limited to solely to economics, or security, or diplomatic engagement.” |
| “这再次提醒人们，竞争是在全球舞台上进行的，”美国进步中心负责政策的执行副主管、前奥巴马政府中东特使玛拉·拉德曼说。“它绝不局限于印太地区，就像它不仅仅局限于经济、安全或外交接触一样。” |
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