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中国经济复苏迎利好，制造业强势反弹
China’s Factories Report Surge in Activity After Lockdowns End

来源：纽约时报    2023-03-02 01:16



        After being brutally battered by the coronavirus pandemic last year, Chinese factories bounced back with unexpected vigor last month.
        在去年因新冠病毒大流行遭受重创后，中国工厂上个月以意想不到的活力反弹。
        The official index of manufacturing activity, based on surveys of purchasing managers at companies in China, shot up in February from the month before to its highest level in more than a decade. The index of service sector activity also rose. Both measures suggested that business had expanded for a second straight month, after contracting during the Covid restrictions.
        根据对中国企业采购经理的调查，在2月，官方制造业活动指数较前一个月猛增，达到十多年来的最高水平。服务业活动指数也有所上升。这两项措施都表明，在新冠限制措施期间收缩的业务已经连续第二个月扩大。
        After a year of unrelenting lockdowns, quarantines and coronavirus testing that paralyzed much of the country, Beijing lifted restrictions without warning in early December. The abrupt reversal in policy resulted in a rampage of infections, and rough estimates suggest that up to 1.5 million people have died in the Covid wave. But it also freed the economy to begin a revival.
        一年持续的封锁、隔离和新冠病毒检测使该国大部分地区陷入瘫痪后，北京在12月初毫无预警地取消了限制。政策的突然逆转导致感染暴发，据粗略估计，多达150万人死于那次新冠浪潮。但它也让经济开始复苏。
        “Overnight we’ve seen a decent change in momentum for risk as upbeat China data has revived optimism for the reopening trade that has been flagging of late,” analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote after the statistics were released. The Hang Seng stock index in Hong Kong rose more than 4 percent on Wednesday.
        德意志银行分析师在统计数据发布后写道：“一夜之间，我们看到风险势头发生了相当大的变化，因为向好的中国数据令人们对重新开放贸易再度产生乐观情绪，之前人们的看法一直低迷。”香港恒生指数周三上涨超过4%。
        The upbeat news came just days before China’s leaders gather for the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress.
        这一乐观消息是在中国领导人齐聚一年一度的全国人民代表大会之前几天前宣布的。
        China is the second-largest economy in the world, after the United States, but its manufacturing capacity is gargantuan, producing more of the globe’s factory output than the United States, Germany and Japan combined.
        中国是仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体，但其制造能力非常庞大，其工厂产量全球占比超过美国、德国和日本的总和。
        The health of China’s economy ripples through other economies. “China’s economic resurgence, coming after the disruptions caused by the zero-Covid policy and then its abrupt reversal, is a positive omen for the global economy’s prospects this year,” said Eswar Prasad, a trade policy professor at Cornell.
        中国经济的健康会波及其他经济体。康奈尔大学贸易政策教授埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德表示：“中国经济在遭到’清零’政策的破坏和该政策突然逆转后复苏，这是今年全球经济前景的积极预兆。”
        China’s economic growth rate of 3 percent in 2022 was one of its worst showings in nearly half a century. Economists expect growth to rebound this year, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting an expansion of 5.2 percent. Investors betting on a recovery have pushed Chinese stocks higher this year.
        中国2022年经济增长率仅为3%，是近半个世纪以来最糟糕的表现之一。经济学家预计，今年经济增长将出现反弹，国际货币基金组织预测增长5.2%。押注经济复苏的投资者今年推高了中国股市。
        The manufacturing data released on Wednesday further fed some analysts’ optimism: Schroders, an investment manager, raised its forecast for economic growth in China this year to 6.2 percent, from 5 percent.
        周三公布的制造业数据令一些分析师感到更加乐观：投资管理公司施罗德将今年中国经济增长预期从5%上调至6.2%。
        But the damage from three years of China’s “zero Covid” policies will take time to heal. Extended lockdowns forced small businesses to permanently shutter, and wide-scale testing burdened government finances.
        但中国三年的“清零”政策造成的损害需要时间来愈合。长期封锁迫使小企业永久关闭，大规模检测给政府财政带来负担。
        Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley noted that China’s national statistics bureau cautioned that demand remained weak. It may become clear this weekend whether the political leadership decides to offer support that would prop up private firms, the sagging real estate sector and infrastructure investment.
        三菱日联摩根士丹利分析师指出，中国国家统计局警告称，需求依然疲软。政治领导层是否决定提供支持，以支撑私营企业、低迷的房地产行业和基础设施投资，这一点在本周末可能会变得清晰。
        Despite the weaknesses, the recent news suggested that China could see relatively good growth this year, Mr. Prasad of Cornell said. He added that the latest figures “will ease some of the pressure on the country’s leadership to announce significant stimulus measures at the forthcoming meeting of the National People’s Congress.”
        康奈尔大学的普拉萨德表示，尽管存在这些弱点，但最近的消息表明中国今年可能会出现相对较好的增长。他还说，最新数据“将减轻国家领导层在即将召开的全国人民代表大会上宣布重大刺激措施的压力。”
        
        
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