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| WASHINGTON — A year ago, the United States did something extraordinary — it released previously classified intelligence that exposed Russia’s plans to invade Ukraine. | 华盛顿——一年前，美国做了一件不同寻常的事：公布了暴露俄罗斯侵略乌克兰计划的情报，而该情报此前是保密的。 |
| Last week, Antony J. Blinken, the secretary of state, made a similar move when he warned China’s top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, against providing weapons to Russia. | 上周，国务卿布林肯做出了相似之举，警告中国最高外交政策官员王毅不要向俄罗斯提供武器。 |
| In a previous era, the warning might have remained private, at least for some time. But a new intelligence playbook honed just before and during the war in Ukraine has redefined how the United States uses its classified knowledge to undercut Russia and its partners. | 换做以往，这样的警告可能至少在一段时间内是私下的。但在乌克兰战争前和战争中打磨出的新情报战略重塑了美国利用机密情报打击俄罗斯及其伙伴国的方式。 |
| The playbook is not just about naming and shaming Russia and its allies; it has become a powerful tool in the United States’ arsenal to try to stymie the Kremlin’s offensive by exposing Russia’s military plans and in aligning support for Kyiv’s war effort in allied capitals. | 此战略不仅是为了公开谴责俄罗斯及其盟友；它已经成为美国的一种强大手段，通过暴露俄罗斯的军事计划，并在盟国首都为基辅的战争协调支援，以阻挠克里姆林宫的攻势。 |
| Ahead of Mr. Blinken’s meeting with Mr. Wang, the United States disclosed to allies intelligence normally held in tight secrecy. It included details about the ammunition and other weaponry China was considering providing Russia. Then Mr. Blinken shared the broad conclusion that China was considering giving military support to Russia publicly. | 布林肯与王毅的会晤开始前，美国向盟友披露了通常严格保密的情报。其内容包括中国考虑向俄罗斯提供弹药和其他武器的细节。随后，布林肯宣布了一个笼统的结论，即中国正在考虑公开向俄罗斯提供军事支持。 |
| “For the most part, China has been engaged in providing rhetorical, political, diplomatic support to Russia, but we have information that gives us concern that they are considering providing lethal support to Russia in the war against Ukraine,” Mr. Blinken told ABC News. | “在很大程度上，中国一直在为俄罗斯提供口头上、政治上和外交上的支持，但我们对获得的信息感到担忧，因为中国正在考虑为俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争提供致命性支持，”布林肯对ABC新闻表示。 |
| “And it was important for me to share very clearly with Wang Yi that this would be a serious problem.” | “对我来说，关键在于要向王毅清楚表明，这将是个性质严重的问题。” |
| The disclosure by Mr. Blinken was driven at least in part by the U.S. belief that public warnings and the declassification of additional intelligence about internal Chinese deliberations, could still deter Beijing from delivering to Russia weapon systems to aid Moscow’s military campaign. | 布林肯之所以披露此信息，至少在一定程度上是因为美国认为公开警告和解密更多关于中国内部考量的情报，仍可能阻止北京向俄罗斯提供武器系统、助力俄罗斯的军事行动。 |
| Some American officials insist that unlike Iran or North Korea — countries whose military support for Russia has been disclosed by U.S. officials — China cares about its international reputation. Because of its trade ties with Europe and the United States, which North Korea and Iran do not have, Beijing may be less willing to risk sanctions over weapon sales. | 一些美国官员坚称，与已被他们披露向俄罗斯提供军事支持的伊朗或朝鲜不同，中国重视其国际声誉。因为与欧美的贸易关系——对朝鲜和伊朗则不存在——北京或许没那么愿意承担出售武器带来的制裁风险。 |
| The effort to declassify intelligence to expose Russia began just over a year ago when the Biden administration was trying to convince some skeptical allies in Europe that Russia was poised to invade Ukraine. The administration’s new intelligence sharing strategy did not stop the Russian invasion, but it succeeded in revealing Russian plans and aligning major Western powers behind measures to isolate Russia economically and diplomatically. | 用解密情报来揭露俄罗斯计划的努力是一年前开始的，当时拜登政府试图让一些持怀疑态度的欧洲盟友相信，俄罗斯的确准备入侵乌克兰。拜登政府的情报共享新战略虽未能阻止俄罗斯入侵，但成功暴露了俄罗斯的计划，并推动了主要西方大国在经济和外交上孤立俄罗斯。 |
| “It’s not a natural thing to share intelligence beyond a handful of our most trusted allies, but we knew that this effort was going to have to be broader and deeper than we had ever done before,” said Jon Finer, the deputy national security adviser. | “向除了少数最信任的盟友之外的国家分享情报并非传统，但我们知道，这项工作必须要做得比以往更广泛、更深入，”副国家安全顾问乔恩·芬纳表示。 |
| The shift toward disclosures is driven in part by lessons of the past, and startling technological changes that have made more information about wartime activities accessible than ever before, something intelligence officials say allows them to release more information without endangering secret sources. | 美国选择披露情报，部分原因在于历史的教训，以及速度惊人的技术变革让战时活动信息的获取比以往任何时候都更加容易，情报官员称，这让他们得以在不危及秘密来源的情况下公布更多信息。 |
| The strategy is also, in part, a product of past intelligence failures. Some failures, most infamously over claims of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, still color how Europeans view American spy agencies two decades later. Those doubts forced the United States and Britain to share more about what they knew about Russian capabilities and intentions to try to stave off European skepticism. | 在某种程度上，这一策略也是以往情报战略失败的结果。其中一些失策——最受诟病的就是宣称伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器——在20年后仍在影响欧洲人对美国间谍机构的看法。这些疑虑导致美国和英国不得不更多地将他们对俄罗斯军事能力及意图的了解公之于世，以打消欧洲的怀疑态度。 |
| Now, according to some diplomats, when those two allies declassify and release intelligence, it is more readily believed by allies in Europe who were previously uncertain of U.S. and British intelligence on Russia’s war plans. | 一些外交官透露，如今再看到这对盟友解密并公开情报，以往对美英的俄罗斯战争计划情报态度犹疑的欧洲盟国更倾向于相信它们。 |
| “Even though Russia was not deterred by the release of the intelligence information, what was achieved was that everybody was on the same sheet of music when the war started,” said Kaupo Rosin, the director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, which has also released declassified information. | “尽管公布情报信息未能阻止俄罗斯的行动，但还是让所有人在战争开始时都站在了同一战线，”爱沙尼亚外国情报局局长考波·罗辛表示，该国同样公布了解密信息。 |
| The U.S. release of intelligence has focused on various countries’ support for Russia’s war. In addition to the warning about China, the White House disclosed plans for Iranian trainers, missiles and drones to join the battlefield in Ukraine. And it shared information about North Korean artillery ammunition going to resupply Russia. | 美国公开情报的内容重点是各国对俄罗斯战争的支持。除了对中国的警告，白宫还披露了伊朗向乌克兰战场输送培训员、导弹和无人机的计划，并分享了朝鲜为俄罗斯提供火炮弹药补给的信息。 |
| The disclosures laid the groundwork for new sanctions by the U.S. and Europe on Iranian drone makers. More information releases are likely, officials said, whenever Russia is close to striking a deal for new weaponry. In addition to calling out countries who are considering supporting Russia, the United States plans to release information on Moscow’s battle plans and preparations, much as officials did in the months before the invasion. | 这些情报披露为美欧对伊朗无人机制造商实施新制裁奠定了基础。官员表示，只要俄罗斯接近达成新的武器交易，就可能有更多信息被公布。除了揭露有哪些国家正在考虑支持俄罗斯，美国还计划公开俄罗斯的作战计划和备战情况，正如入侵前几个月官员们所做的一样。 |
| The aim would be to call out Russia’s efforts to step up or expand its offensive in the east or south of Ukraine, said U.S. officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Such a disclosure, which would take away the element of surprise, could help Ukraine prepare and galvanize a European response — either through additional economic steps or increased military assistance to Ukraine. | 要求匿名的美国官员表示，此举的目的是对俄罗斯在乌克兰东部或南部加强或扩大攻势的行动发出警告。这样的披露能够消除意外因素，有利于乌克兰进行准备，同时也能刺激欧洲做出回应——要么采取更多经济措施，要么增加对乌克兰的军事援助。 |
| Still, there are more limits now than a year ago. Ahead of the invasion, the United States was trying to prod Ukraine to take the threat of invasion more seriously. Now Ukraine is fighting with all its might, and U.S. officials say they want to make sure any disclosure of Russian movements or operational plans aids Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself, not complicate them. | 不过，如今的掣肘之处还是比一年前更多。入侵发生前，美国还在催促乌克兰更认真地对待入侵威胁。而乌克兰眼下正全力作战，美国官员表示，他们要确保任何关于俄罗斯部署或行动计划的披露都能对乌克兰自卫起到帮助，而不是将其复杂化。 |
| Part of the reason the U.S. government can disclose Moscow’s war plans, is in large measure because Washington-based think tanks like the Institute for the Study of War or the Russia Studies program at CNA, are scrutinizing various threads of information to examine Russia’s movements. | 美国政府之所以能够公开莫斯科的战争计划，很大程度上是因为战争研究中心和海军分析中心的俄罗斯研究项目等华盛顿智库正在仔细研究各种信息线索，以了解俄罗斯的动向。 |
| The surge of such open-source information, which includes images from commercial satellites as well as reports from Russian bloggers, social media posts analyzing weapons found in Ukraine and other information, has enabled the intelligence community to make more disclosures, officials said. | 官员表示，包括商业卫星影像、俄罗斯博客作者记录、分析在乌克兰发现武器的社交媒体帖子和其他信息在内，此类开源信息的激增让情报界能够做出更多披露。 |
| Many declassifications have come when the intelligence community can find open-source information that allows analysts to draw similar conclusions.U.S. officials say they are not aware of any sensitive sources of information that have been lost as a result of the releases — at least so far. | 许多解密内容都来自情报界能够找到的开源信息，从而让分析人士得出类似结论。美国官员称至少到目前为止，他们还没有发现因披露而损失任何敏感信息来源。 |
| In 2014, after Russia seized Crimea, the Obama administration took a more cautious approach when it came to sharing intelligence — than about Russian activities in the Donbas region of Ukraine — with skeptical European allies, a decision that some officials came to see as a mistake because it made it easier for Moscow to sow divisions in the West. | 2014年，在俄罗斯吞并克里米亚之后，奥巴马政府在向存有疑虑的欧洲盟友分享关于俄罗斯在乌克兰顿巴斯地区活动的情报时，采取了更谨慎的做法。一些官员认为这是决策失误，导致莫斯科更容易在西方制造分裂。 |
| “Obviously, Biden administration officials have learned from that firsthand experience that most of them had as part of the Obama administration,” said Evelyn Farkas, the top Pentagon official for Ukraine during the Obama years. “You can’t convince people to go along with your policies if they are suspicious about what those policies are based on.” | “显然，因为拜登政府的大多数官员都曾在奥巴马政府任职，他们从那次的亲身经历中吸取了教训，”奥巴马执政期间负责乌克兰事务的五角大楼高级官员伊夫林·法卡斯表示。“如果他人连这些政策的依据都抱有怀疑，那你当然无法说服他们认同你的政策。” |
| In the fall of 2021, many of the officials who were involved in Obama administration decisions on intelligence sharing were back in power, and they faced a similar dilemma. | 2021年秋天，当许多参与过奥巴马政府情报分享决策的官员重新掌权，他们面临着相似的困境。 |
| At first, they were somewhat unconvinced of the dire predictions of U.S. intelligence agencies about a possible Russian invasion. | 起初，他们有点不相信美国情报机构关于俄罗斯可能入侵的凶险预测。 |
| But as they were presented with more evidence, Jake Sullivan, who served as Mr. Biden’s national security adviser when he was vice president, and Mr. Finer, his deputy, came to the conclusion that the Biden administration should not allow a repeat of 2014, and needed to find a way to prevent Russia from dividing the West and catching the world by surprise. | 但随着更多证据出现，拜登任副总统时担任其国家安全顾问的杰克·沙利文和他的副手芬纳得出结论，拜登政府不应该允许2014年的事情重演，需要找到一种方法，防止俄罗斯分裂西方，让世界措手不及。 |
| Mr. Biden agreed and directed that U.S. intelligence about Russia’s war plans be declassified so they could be shared with a broad group of allies. | 拜登对此表示同意，并指示将美国有关俄罗斯战争计划的情报解密，以便与广泛的盟友共享。 |
| “He turned to us in the intelligence community and said, ‘You’ve got to share,’” Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence, recalled in a speech last week. “‘You have to get out there and start sharing because we’ve got to help them see what you’re seeing.’” | “他对我们情报界的人说，‘你们必须分享，’”国家情报总监埃夫里尔·海恩斯在上周的演讲中回忆。“‘你们必须走出去，开始分享，因为我们必须帮助他们看到你们所看到的东西。’” |
| In contrast to 2014, when U.S. officials were largely caught off guard by Russia’s lightning seizure of Crimea, intelligence agencies saw the 2022 invasion coming. As a result, Biden administration officials knew they had weeks, if not months, to lay the groundwork with reluctant allies and to pre-empt Moscow by exposing its plans. | 与2014年俄罗斯闪电占领克里米亚，让美国官员措手不及的情况相反，情报机构预料到了2022年俄罗斯的入侵。因此，拜登政府的官员们知道，他们有几周甚至几个月的时间来给不情愿的盟友做工作，并通过曝光莫斯科的计划来先发制人。 |
| “There were really strong arguments for going one step further and actually downgrading and declassifying some information so that we can also start to prepare the public landscape,” Mr. Finer said. | “我们有非常充分的理由相信，应该更进一步，将一些信息降级并解密，这样我们也可以开始为公共环境做好准备，”芬纳说。 |
| U.S. intelligence agencies are generally reluctant to share their secrets, but they agreed to do so after taking steps to ensure that the disclosures would not expose their most valuable sources. | 美国情报机构通常不愿分享秘密，但在采取措施，确保披露信息不会暴露他们最重要的消息来源后，他们同意分享秘密。 |
| The new playbook appears to be here to stay: Biden administration officials say they will continue to disclose sensitive information when it is in America’s strategic interest. But that does not mean the administration and intelligence officials will always agree on what to release. | 新的策略似乎会持续下去：拜登政府官员表示，只要符合美国的战略利益，他们将继续披露敏感信息。但这并不意味着政府和情报官员总会就公布什么内容达成一致。 |
| In a talk at the Munich Security Conference, William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, said the decisions to release intelligence had an important impact on the course of the war. But he said intelligence should be released only after an evaluation of the potential benefits and risks of each disclosure. | 在慕尼黑安全会议上的一次讲话中，中央情报局局长威廉·伯恩斯表示，公布情报的决定对战争进程产生了重要影响。但他表示，只有在评估了每项情报的潜在利益和风险后，才应该公布情报。 |
| “As I’ve learned over many years, the surest way to lose sources of good intelligence is to be reckless in your handling of them,” Mr. Burns said. “There’s always a temptation to think that anything worth doing is worth overdoing. So in this case, I think we have to be careful and case-by-case.” | “正如我多年来学到的，情报处理上的疏忽大意最容易导致优质情报源损失，”伯恩斯说。“总有一种诱惑，认为任何值得做的事情都值得大做特做。所以在这种情况下，我认为我们必须谨慎行事，根据具体个案处理。” |
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