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| WARSAW — When President Vladimir V. Putin announced at the end of a 100-minute speech on Tuesday that he would suspend Russia’s participation in the New START treaty — the last surviving arms control agreement between the two largest nuclear-armed powers — it was the latest sign that the decades-long era of formal arms control may be dying. |
| 华沙——周二，普京总统在持续100分钟的演讲结束时宣布，俄罗斯将暂停履行《新削减战略武器条约》，这是两个最大的核武国之间现存的最后一项军备控制协议，此举是长达数十年的正式军备控制时代可能消亡的最新迹象。 |
| Mr. Putin made clear that he was not pulling out of the treaty, which expires in February 2026. And hours after the speech, Russia’s Foreign Ministry declared the country had no intention to deploy more strategic nuclear arms — the kind that can soar across continents — beyond the limits of the treaty, which keeps both sides to 1,550 nuclear weapons. That set aside, at least for the next few years, the prospect of a resumed arms race between the two largest nuclear powers. |
| 普京明确表示，他不会退出这个将于2026年2月到期的条约。演讲结束数小时后，俄罗斯外交部宣布，该国无意部署超出条约限制数量的洲际战略核武器，条约将双方部署的核弹头限制在1550枚。至少在接下来的几年里，这排除了两个最大核大国之间恢复军备竞赛的前景。 |
| But the chances are rapidly diminishing that Russia and the United States, in the midst of the bitter war in Ukraine and mutual recriminations on a scale not seen in decades, can find their way to sit down to negotiate a replacement treaty, much less agree to one. And Mr. Putin’s declaration that he will block American inspectors from verifying treaty compliance made clear, once again, that he views his nuclear arsenal as a key element of power as he tries to revive his stumbling effort to take over a nation whose right to exist as an independent state he refuses to acknowledge. |
| 在乌克兰战争打得正酣时，俄美的相互指责到达了前所未见的程度，双方能够找到坐下来谈判替代条约的机会正在迅速减少，更不用说达成条约了。在普京拒绝承认另一个国家作为独立国家存在的权利并试图占领该国的努力踯躅不前之际，他宣布将阻止美国监督员核查俄方的条约遵守情况，这再次表明他将核武库视为权力的关键要素。 |
| He is also retreating from New START at a critical moment. China has made clear it is determined to build an arsenal the size of Washington and Moscow’s. International inspectors have now discovered new evidence that Iran is making rapid progress in making near-bomb-grade nuclear fuel. North Korea spent the weekend testing its own intercontinental ballistic missiles. Every sign indicates the world may be on the verge of a new era of nuclear breakout. |
| 他暂不履行该条约的时刻也很关键。中国已明确表示，它决心建立一个与美俄规模相当的核武库。国际监督员现在发现了新的证据，表明伊朗在制造接近武器级的核燃料方面取得了快速进展。朝鲜在周末试射了洲际弹道导弹。每一个迹象都表明，世界可能正处于核爆发新时代的边缘。 |
| More broadly, Mr. Putin sounded like a leader who was done with arms control after years of suspended inspections because of the pandemic, and then as confrontations with the United States and NATO escalated. |
| 更广泛地说，在先后经历了因疫情而暂停多年的核查工作、与美国和北约的冲突升级后，普京听起来似乎有心结束军备控制。 |
| If that attitude holds, whoever is sitting in the Oval Office when the treaty expires in a bit more than 1,000 days may face a new world that will look, at first glance, similar to the one of a half-century ago, when arms races were in full swing and nations could field as many nuclear weapons as they wanted. |
| 如果这种态度得以继续，当条约在1000多天后到期时，无论谁坐在椭圆形办公室，都可能面临一个新世界，乍一看，这个世界与半个世纪前的世界何其相似，当时军备竞赛如火如荼，各国想要部署多少核武器都可以。 |
| It was a reminder of how fragile the scant remaining restraints on nuclear weapons worldwide appear, 14 years after President Barack Obama, in a signature speech in Prague, called on all powers to work toward “a world without nuclear weapons.” While Mr. Obama acknowledged he might not see that day in his lifetime, it seemed, for a brief while, that the major nuclear powers were on a path to shrinking their arsenals — and relying less on nuclear weapons for defense and deterrence. |
| 这提醒人们，在奥巴马总统于布拉格发表标志性演讲、呼吁所有大国努力实现“一个没有核武器的世界”14年后，全世界对核武器仅存的限制是多么脆弱。虽然奥巴马承认他可能在有生之年看不到那一天，但有那么一阵，主要核大国似乎正在缩减核武库——并减少对核武器进行防御和威慑的依赖。 |
| That day appears over, at least for the foreseeable future. |
| 至少在可预见的未来，这样的日子似乎已经结束。 |
| “With Russia breaking treaties, China building up, North Korea testing missiles and Iran now close to weapons-grade uranium, it is a bad period for nuclear stability and restraint,” said Jon Wolfsthal, a senior adviser to Global Zero, a group that advocates the abolition of nuclear weapons, and a fellow at the Center for a New American Security. |
| “随着俄罗斯违反条约、中国加强制造、朝鲜试射导弹，以及伊朗现在接近获得武器级铀，眼下是一个不利于核稳定和核克制的时期，”主张废除核武器的全球零核运动高级顾问、新美国安全中心研究员乔恩·沃尔夫斯塔尔说。 |
| Mr. Wolfsthal, who worked for President Biden when he was vice president, and then for Mr. Obama’s national security council on arms control, said he feared Mr. Putin’s declaration, while more a political declaration than a military one, “is likely to stoke the growing calls for the U.S. to expand its nuclear arsenal to both compete with Russia and show China they cannot catch us.” |
| 沃尔夫斯塔尔曾在拜登总统担任副总统期间为其效力，后在奥巴马的国家安全委员会工作，负责军备控制。他说普京的声明令他担忧——虽然这更多是一份政治声明而不是军事声明，这“很可能引发越来越多的人呼吁美国扩大核武库，一方面跟俄罗斯竞争，另一方面向中国表明他们无法追上我们”。 |
| Even before Mr. Putin spoke, implementation of the New START treaty was already in deep trouble; the State Department announced last month that the Russians were out of compliance. But on Tuesday, the Russian leader made clear that the United States could now forget about inspecting Russian nuclear sites, a central element of verifying compliance with the treaty’s mandates. |
| 甚至在普京发表此番讲话之前，《新削减战略武器条约》的履行就已经陷入困境；美国国务院上个月宣布俄方没有遵守协议。但周二，俄罗斯领导人明确表示，美国现在不用再检查俄罗斯的核设施了，而这原本是核查履约情况的核心要素。 |
| Not surprisingly, Mr. Putin argued that he was forced into his decision by American action. “They want to inflict ‘strategic defeat’ on us,” he said, picking up a phrase that American officials have used to describe their desired outcome for Russia in the war against Ukraine, “and climb on our nuclear facilities.” |
| 不出所料，普京辩称他是被美方的行为逼迫做出这个决定的。他说：“他们想给我们造成‘战略失败’，并爬上我们的核设施。”美国官员曾用“战略失败”的说法来描述他们期待俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中所取得的结果。 |
| He also noted that the Ukrainians had already used drones to attack strategic air bases in Russia, where the Russian Air Force keeps the bombers that can deliver nuclear weapons. (Those attacks happened, though they appear to have done limited damage.) |
| 他还指出，乌克兰人用无人机攻击了俄罗斯的战略空军基地，俄罗斯空军在那里部署了可携带核武器的轰炸机。（这些袭击确实发生了，但似乎造成的损害有限。） |
| He said he wasn’t now about to allow inspectors to survey nuclear facilities, because they could pass their findings on to the Ukrainians to launch further attacks. |
| 他说，他现在不会允许检查人员视察核设施，因为他们可能会把调查结果交给乌克兰人，让他们发动进一步的袭击。 |
| “This is a theater of the absurd,” he said. “We know that the West is directly involved in the attempts of the Kyiv regime to strike at the bases.” |
| “这是一出荒诞剧，”他说。“我们知道，西方国家直接参与了基辅政权袭击这些基地的企图。” |
| None of this changes the status quo ante very much. Nuclear inspections were suspended during the Covid pandemic, when inspectors on either side couldn’t get into Russia or the United States. |
| 这些并没有对双方的势力状态产生太大的影响。在疫情期间，双方的核查人员都无法进入对方，因此核检查早已暂停。 |
| But over the past year, as travel restrictions lifted, Russians came up with reasons to deny inspections — and charged, as Mr. Putin did again on Tuesday, that the United States was not living up to its inspection requirements either. (American officials insisted several months ago that they have resolved access issues and would allow in Russian inspectors, as long as American inspectors had reciprocal rights.) |
| 但在过去的一年里，随着旅行限制的取消，俄罗斯人想出了拒绝检查的理由，并像普京周二再次做的那样，指责美国也没有达到检查的要求。（几个月前，美国官员坚称，他们已经解决了准入问题，只要美国核查人员享有对等权利，他们就会允许俄罗斯核查人员进入。） |
| The United States retains considerable visibility over the Russian arsenal, chiefly with satellites that keep track of Russian nuclear movements. But there is a deeper worry. The five-year extension of New START that President Biden and Mr. Putin agreed upon in the first month of the Biden presidency is the only one permitted under the agreement, which was negotiated during Mr. Obama’s tenure. |
| 美国对俄罗斯的核武库保持着相当大的关注程度，主要是通过卫星跟踪俄罗斯的核活动。但还有一个更深层次的担忧。在拜登总统任期的第一个月，拜登和普京达成一致，将《新削减战略武器条约》延长五年，该协议是在奥巴马任内谈判达成的，依据协议规定，它只可延长一次。 |
| That means an entirely new treaty would have to be pieced together. And while American officials insist that they want to negotiate a new agreement, it is increasingly hard to imagine that happening in the next three years. |
| 这意味着必须达成一份新协议。尽管美国官员坚称，他们希望通过谈判达成这个目标，但越来越难以想象未来三年内会发生这种情况。 |
| The reasons are numerous. First, there is virtually no communication between the two countries. The “strategic stability talks” that Mr. Biden and Mr. Putin agreed upon in June 2021, at their only face-to-face meeting as presidents, started off with a promising dialogue. |
| 原因有很多。首先，两国之间几乎没有沟通。2021年6月，拜登和普京以总统身份举行的唯一一次面对面会谈中商定的“战略稳定会谈”，以充满希望的对话开始。 |
| The two sides agreed, briefly, to talk about traditional arms control and what to do with “novel” weapons, including a range of new nuclear devices under development by Russia. The Russians, in turn, want limits on what the United States calls “upgrades” to its own weapons. But those discussions never got off the ground; they were suspended after the invasion of Ukraine. |
| 双方大致同意讨论传统军备控制问题，以及如何处理“新型”武器，包括俄罗斯正在研发的一系列新型核装置。反过来，俄罗斯则希望限制美国对本国武器的所谓“升级”。但这些讨论从未启动，并且在入侵乌克兰后暂停。 |
| Second, trust between the two countries is virtually nonexistent. Mr. Putin and Mr. Biden have not spoken directly in more than a year. In the ensuing time, Mr. Biden has described the Russian leader as a war criminal, and Mr. Putin has called the American president the aggressor in Ukraine. In private, American officials sometimes concede that even if they negotiated a treaty, it would be almost impossible to imagine the Senate ratifying it under these conditions. |
| 其次，两国之间几乎不存在信任。普京和拜登已经一年多没有直接交谈了。随后，拜登称这位俄罗斯领导人是战犯，普京则称美国总统是乌克兰的侵略者。私下里，美国官员有时也承认，即使他们通过谈判达成了一项条约，在这种情况下，几乎不可能想象参议院会批准它。 |
| Third, the treaty as it stands does not cover the nuclear weapons the world worries about most in conflicts such as in Ukraine — the “battlefield nukes,” or tactical nuclear weapons, that Mr. Putin has episodically threatened to employ against Ukrainian forces. Russia has 2,000 or so; the United States has a few hundred. |
| 第三，目前的条约并不包括世界在乌克兰冲突等情况下最担心的核武器——“战场核武器”或战术核武器，普京不时威胁要动用它来对付乌克兰军队。俄罗斯大约有2000枚这种核武器；美国有数百枚。 |
| Finally, another treaty only between Moscow and Washington no longer makes sense to many nuclear experts. The Pentagon now estimates that China, which is rapidly expanding its arsenal, could deploy 1,500 weapons in the next dozen years, matching the American and Russian arsenals. So an arms control treaty that left out one of the three major powers would be all but useless. And so far, China has showed no interest in joining negotiations — if there were any. |
| 最后，在许多核专家看来，仅在莫斯科和华盛顿之间签订另一项条约已不再有意义。五角大楼现在估计，正在迅速扩大核武库的中国可能会在未来十余年部署1500枚核弹，与美国和俄罗斯的数量相当。因此，如果一个军备控制条约不全部包括这三个大国，将是毫无用处的。到目前为止，中国没有表现出加入谈判的兴趣——如果有谈判的话。 |
| Still, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said on Tuesday, after Mr. Putin spoke, that he would be willing to negotiate a new treaty that was “clearly in the security interests of our country” and, he added, “in the security interests of Russia.” |
| 尽管如此，在普京发表讲话后，国务卿布林肯周二表示，他愿意就一项“显然符合我国安全利益”的新条约进行谈判，他还说，该条约也将“符合俄罗斯的安全利益”。 |
| Mr. Putin’s announcement, he added, was “deeply unfortunate and irresponsible.” But he suggested that the United States would not change its compliance with the treaty, no matter what Russia did. |
| 他表示，普京的声明是“非常不幸和不负责任的”。但他表示，无论俄罗斯做什么，美国都不会改变对该条约的遵守。 |
| “I think it matters that we continue to act responsibly in this area,” he said. “It’s also something the rest of the world expects of us.” |
| “我认为，我们继续在这个领域采取负责任的行动很重要。这也是世界其它国家对我们的期待，”他说。 |
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