| 双语新闻 Bilingual News | 双语对照阅读 分级系列阅读 智能辅助阅读 在线英语学习 |
|
| 双语新闻 Bilingual News | 双语对照阅读 分级系列阅读 智能辅助阅读 在线英语学习 |
| [英文] [中文] [双语对照] [双语交替] [] |
| China’s population has begun to decline, a demographic turning point for the country that has global implications. Experts had long anticipated this moment, but it arrived in 2022 several years earlier than expected, prompting hand-wringing among economists over the long-term impacts given the country’s immense economic heft and its role as the world’s manufacturer. | 中国的人口开始下降，这是一个具有全球影响的人口转折点。专家们早就预料到了这一时刻，但它在2022年到来，比预期提前了几年，考虑到中国巨大的经济影响力和它作为世界制造商的角色，经济学家对其长期影响感到担忧。 |
| With 850,000 fewer births than deaths last year, at least according to the country’s official report, China joined an expanding set of nations with shrinking populations caused by years of falling fertility and often little or even negative net migration, a group that includes Italy, Greece and Russia, along with swaths of Eastern and Southern Europe and several Asian nations like South Korea and Japan. | 至少根据中国的官方报告，去年，中国的出生人口比死亡人口少了85万，中国加入了一个名单不断增长的国家行列，这些国家人口不断萎缩，原因是多年来生育率下降，净移民往往很少甚至为负，其中包括意大利、希腊和俄罗斯，还有东欧和南欧的一些地区，以及韩国和日本等几个亚洲国家。 |
| Even places that have not begun to lose population, such as Australia, France and Britain, have been grappling with demographic decline for years as life expectancy increases and women have fewer children. | 即使是澳大利亚、法国和英国等人口还没有开始减少的地方，多年来也面临人口结构恶化的难题，原因是预期寿命的增加和女性生育的减少。 |
| History suggests that once a country crosses the threshold of negative population growth, there is little that its government can do to reverse it. And as a country’s population grows more top-heavy, a smaller, younger generation bears the increasing costs of caring for a larger, older one. | 历史表明，一旦一个国家跨过人口负增长的门槛，政府就几乎无法扭转这一局面。而且，随着一个国家的人口结构变得越来越头重脚轻，年轻一代的人数会越来越少，将承担越来越高的成本来照顾越来越多的老一代人。 |
| Even though China’s birthrate has fallen substantially over the last five decades, it was long a country with a relatively young population, which meant it could withstand those low rates for a long time before starting to see population losses. Like many developed countries, China’s older population is now swelling — a consequence of its earlier boom — leaving it in a position similar to that of many wealthy nations: in need of more young people. | 尽管中国的出生率在过去50年里大幅下降，但长期以来，中国一直是一个人口相对年轻的国家，这意味着在人口开始减少之前，它可以在很长一段时间内承受低出生率。与许多发达国家一样，中国的老年人口正在膨胀——这是早期经济繁荣的结果——这使其处于同许多富裕国家类似的境地：需要更多的年轻人。 |
| Countries such as the U.S. and Germany have been able to rely on robust immigration, even with relatively low birthrates. But for countries with negative net migration, such as China, more people requires more babies. | 尽管美国和德国的出生率相对较低，但它们一直能够依靠强劲的移民。但对于中国等净移民为负的国家，想要更多的人口，就需要更多的婴儿。 |
| “The good news is that the Chinese government is fully aware of the problem,” said Yong Cai, a sociologist at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, who specializes in Chinese demographics. “The bad news is, empirically speaking, that there is very little they can do about it.” | “好消息是，中国政府充分意识到了这个问题，”北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校专门研究中国人口统计的社会学家蔡勇（音）说。“坏消息是，从经验上讲，他们对此无能为力。” |
| That’s because the playbook for boosting national birthrates is a rather thin one. Most initiatives that encourage families to have more children are expensive, and the results are often limited. Options include cash incentives for having babies, generous parental leave policies and free or subsidized child care. | 这是因为提高全国出生率的手段相当少。大多数鼓励家庭多生孩子的举措都是昂贵的，而且效果往往有限。选择包括对生孩子提供现金奖励、慷慨的产假政策以及免费或补贴的儿童保育。 |
| Two decades ago, Australia tried a “baby bonus” program that paid the equivalent of nearly 6,000 U.S. dollars a child at its peak. At the time the campaign started in 2004, the country’s fertility rate was around 1.8 children per woman. (For most developed nations, a fertility rate of 2.1 is the minimum needed for the population to remain steady without immigration.) By 2008, the rate had risen to a high of around 2, but by 2020, six years after the program had ended, it was at 1.6 — lower than when the cash payments were first introduced. | 20年前，澳大利亚试行了一项“婴儿奖金”计划，最高曾为每个孩子支付近6000美元。2004年这项运动开始时，该国的生育率约为每名女性1.8个孩子。（对于大多数发达国家来说，在没有移民的情况下，保持人口稳定所需的最低生育率为2.1。）到2008年，这一比率上升到2左右的高位，但到2020年，也就是该计划结束六年后，这一比率为1.6——比首次引入现金支付时还要低。 |
| By one estimate, the initiative led to an additional 24,000 births. | 据估计，该计划增加了24000个新生儿。 |
| Dr. Liz Allen, a demographer at the Australian National University, said that the program was largely ineffective and that publicly funded paternity leave and child care would have been a more effective use of taxpayer money. “Government intervention to increase fertility rates is best focused on addressing the issues that prevent people from having their desired family size,” she said. | 澳大利亚国立大学的人口统计学家利兹·艾伦表示，这个项目基本上是无效的，用公共资金资助陪产假和儿童保育本可以更有效地利用纳税人的钱。她说：“政府提高生育率的干预最好集中在解决那些阻碍人们拥有理想家庭规模的问题上。” |
| Experts say the most effective initiatives address social welfare, employment policy and other underlying economic issues. France, Germany and Nordic countries like Sweden and Denmark have had notable success in arresting the decline in birthrates, often through government-funded child care or generous parental leave policies. | 专家表示，最有效的措施是解决社会福利、就业政策和其它深层经济问题。法国、德国以及瑞典和丹麦等北欧国家在遏制出生率下降方面都取得了显著成功，它们一般都是通过政府提供育儿津贴或慷慨的产假政策来实现的。 |
| But even the success of those efforts has had limits, with no country able to reach a sustained return to the 2.1 replacement rate. (The U.S. rate fell below 2.1 in the 1970s, slowly rose back up to the replacement rate by 2007, then collapsed again after the Great Recession, to a current level just below 1.7.) | 但这些举措的成功仍然有限，没有一个国家的人口替代率能够持续恢复到2.1的水平。（美国的替代率在上世纪70年代跌至2.1以下，然后缓慢回升直到2007年，金融海啸引发的经济大衰退后再次下跌，目前的水平是1.7。） |
| “You’re not going to reverse the trend, but if you throw in the kitchen sink and make childbearing more attractive, you may be able to prevent the population from falling off a cliff,” said John Bongaarts, a demographer at the Population Council, a research institution in New York. | 纽约研究机构人口会议(Population Council)的人口学家约翰·邦加茨表示，“你不可能扭转这个趋势，但如果加大力度，让生育变得更具吸引力的话，或许就能防止人口坠崖式下降。” |
| Sweden is often cited as a model for increasing fertility rates, thanks to a government-boosted jump in its birthrate. After introducing nine months of parental leave in the 1970s and implementing a “speed premium” in 1980 (which incentivized mothers to have multiple children within a set period), Sweden saw fertility rise from around 1.6 early in the decade to a peak just above the replacement rate by 1990. (The country has since increased its parental leave to 16 months, among the highest in the world.) | 瑞典经常被视作提高生育率的典范，这要归功于政府的推动。它在上世纪70年代引入了9个月的产假，并在1980年推出“速度津贴”（鼓励母亲在规定的时间内生育多个孩子）之后，瑞典的生育率从那个十年之初的1.6左右上升到1990年的峰值，略高于替代率。（自那以后，瑞典的产假增加到了16个月，是世界上产假最长的国家之一。） |
| After that uptick, however, Sweden’s birthrate fell through the ’90s. Over the last 50 years, its fertility rate has fluctuated significantly, rising roughly in tandem with economic booms. And while the country still has one of the highest fertility rates among the most advanced economies, over the past decade it has followed a trajectory similar to that of most developed nations: down. | 然而，在那次上升之后，瑞典的出生率在整个90年代都呈下降趋势。在过去的50年里，它的生育率起伏很大，大致上在经济繁荣的时候生育率就上升。尽管在最发达的经济体中，该国的生育率仍然属于最高的国家，但在过去10年里，它与大多数发达国家的人口轨迹类似：下降。 |
| Recent research suggests a reason Sweden’s fertility spikes were only temporary: Families rushed to have children they were already planning to have. Stuart Gietel-Basten, a demographer at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said financial incentives seldom increase the overall number of children born, but instead encourage families to take advantage of benefits that may not last. The spikes, he added, can have unforeseen consequences. “When you have 50,000 children born one year, 100,000 the next, and then 50,000 the year after that, it is really bad for planning and education,” he said. | 最近有研究指出，瑞典生育率只是暂时性飙升的一个原因是：家庭急于生育他们已经计划要的孩子。香港科技大学的人口学家斯图尔特·吉特尔-巴斯滕说，经济方面的激励措施很少会增加子女的总数，但会鼓励家庭利用可能不会持续的福利。他还说，这种出生率的飙升可能会产生意想不到的后果。他说：“如果一年有5万个孩子出生，接下来一年有10万个，后年又是5万个，这对规划和教育领域来说，真的很糟糕。” |
| Few countries have embraced pronatalist policies as vigorously as Hungary, whose right-wing populist leader, Viktor Orban, is dedicating 5 percent of the nation’s G.D.P. toward increasing birthrates. The government encourages procreation through generous loans that become gifts upon the birth of multiple children, tax forgiveness for mothers who have three children, and free fertility treatments. | 很少有国家像匈牙利那样大力推行生育鼓励政策，它的右翼民粹主义领导人欧尔班·维克托将国内生产总值的5%用来促进出生率的提高。政府通过慷慨的贷款（如果生育多个孩子可以免还贷款）、生三个孩子的母亲享有免税待遇、免费的生育治疗等方式鼓励生育。 |
| Around the time these efforts began under Mr. Orban in 2010, Hungary’s fertility rate was just over 1.2, among the lowest in Europe. Over the 2010s, that rate climbed to around 1.6 — a modest improvement at a high cost. | 大约在2010年欧尔班开始采取这些措施时，匈牙利的生育率仅略高于1.2，是欧洲生育率最低的国家之一。在2010年代，这一比率升至1.6左右——这是一个有限的进步，而且成本不菲。 |
| It remains to be seen how far China will go to stem its decline in population, which was set in motion when the country’s fertility rate began to plummet decades ago. That drop began even before the country’s family planning policies limiting most families to a single child, introduced in 1979. Those who defied the rules were punished with fines and even forced abortions. | 中国能在多大程度上遏制人口下降仍有待观察。中国的人口下降是在几十年前该国的生育率开始急剧下降后开始的。这一下降趋势甚至在1979年中国出台计划生育政策，规定大多数家庭只能生一个孩子之前就已经开始了。那些违反计生规定的人会受到罚款，甚至强制堕胎。 |
| The official end of Beijing’s one-child policy in 2016, however, has not led to a rise in births, despite cash incentives and tax cuts for parents. The country’s fertility rate rose slightly around that time, but has fallen since, according to data from the United Nations: from around 1.7 children per woman, on par with Australia and Britain, to around 1.2, among the lowest in the world. That recent drop could be a result of unreliable data from China or a technical effect of delays in childbearing, but it likely also reflects a combination of various pressures that have mounted in the country over time. | 然而，中国独生子女政策在2016年的正式结束并没有促使出生率上升，即使为父母提供了现金奖励和减税措施。根据联合国的数据，该国的生育率在那个时候略有上升，但此后一直在下降：女性生育率从与澳大利亚和英国持平的1.7降至约1.2，处于世界生育率排名末端。最近的下降可能是由于来自中国的数据不可靠或有意延迟怀孕的影响，但它也可能反映了该国受到的各种随着时间的推移而增加的压力的综合效应。 |
| Even though they are now allowed to, many young Chinese are not interested in having large families. Vastly more young Chinese people are enrolling in higher education, marrying later and having children later. Raised in single-child households, some have come to see small families as normal. But the bigger impediment to having a second or third child is financial, according to Lauren A. Johnston, an economist at the University of Sydney who studies Chinese demographics. She said many parents cite the high cost of housing and education as the main obstacle to having more children. “People can’t afford to buy space for themselves, let alone for two kids,” she said. | 尽管现在允许生育多孩，但许多中国年轻人对拥有大家庭不感兴趣。越来越多的中国年轻人正在接受高等教育，晚婚晚育。在独生子女家庭长大的一些人开始认为小家庭是常态。但悉尼大学研究中国人口统计的经济学家劳伦·A·约翰斯顿表示，生第二个或第三个孩子的更大障碍是经济条件。她说，许多父母认为高昂的住房和教育成本是生育更多孩子的主要障碍。“人们无力为自己购买居住空间，更不用说为两个孩子了，”她说。 |
| China’s government could ease the burden on young families through housing subsidies, extended parental leave and increased funding for education and pensions, experts say. Other policy changes, like reforming the country’s restrictive household registration system and raising the official retirement age — female blue-collar workers must retire at 50, for example — could boost the nation’s working-age population, alleviating some of the economic strain that comes with population decline. | 专家表示，中国政府可以通过住房补贴、延长育儿假以及增加教育和养老金资金来减轻年轻家庭的负担。其它政策变化，比如对限制性的户籍制度进行改革和提高法定退休年龄——例如，女性蓝领工人必须在50岁退休——可能会增加该国的劳动年龄人口，缓解人口下降带来的一些经济压力。 |
| Though the Chinese are unlikely to find more success than the Swedes in recovering a high fertility rate, “there is low-hanging fruit that can allow them to squeeze more productivity and higher labor force participation from the population,” said Gerard DiPippo, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. | 尽管中国人在恢复高生育率方面不太可能获得比瑞典人更多的成果，但“有一些唾手可得的成果可以让他们从人口中榨取更高的生产力和更高的劳动力参与率”，战略与国际研究中心高级研究员杰拉德·迪皮波说。 |
| All this points to a Chinese population, currently 1.4 billion, that is likely to continue shrinking. In contrast to economists who have cast China’s population decline as a grim sign for global growth, many demographers have been more sanguine, noting the benefits of a smaller population. | 所有这些都表明，目前14亿的中国人口可能会继续减少。经济学家将中国人口下降视为严重威胁全球增长的迹象，相比之下，许多人口学家相对乐观，他们注意到人口减少的好处。 |
| John Wilmoth, director of the Population Division at the United Nations, said that after decades of exponential growth in which the world’s population doubled to more than seven billion between 1970 to 2014, the doom-and-gloom assessments about declining fertility rates and depopulation tend to be overstated. Japan has been battling population decline since the 1970s, he noted, but it remains one of the world’s largest economies. “It has not been the disaster that people imagined,” Mr. Wilmoth said. “Japan is not in a death spiral.” | 联合国人口司司长约翰·威尔莫斯表示，经过数十年的指数增长，世界人口在1970年至2014年期间翻了一番，超过70亿，关于生育率下降和人口减少的悲观绝望的评估倾向于被夸大了。他指出，自1970年代以来，日本一直在与人口下降作斗争，但它仍然是世界上最大的经济体之一。“这并不是人们想象中的灾难，”威尔莫斯说。“日本没有陷入死亡漩涡。” |
| Worldwide, fertility remains above the replacement rate, which means that allowing more immigration will continue to be an option for many developed nations, even those that historically haven’t relied on it: Before the pandemic, net migration into Japan, while relatively low, had been increasing steadily. | 在世界范围来看，生育率仍然高于替代率，这意味着允许接收更多移民将继续成为许多发达国家的一个选择，即使是那些历史上不依赖移民的国家：在大流行之前，日本净移民数字虽然相对较低，但一直在稳步增长。 |
| Without immigration, pragmatic and noncoercive measures that encourage parents to have families while pursuing careers — as well as policies that allow people in their 60s and 70s to keep working — are the key to managing negative population growth, Mr. Wilmoth said. “Population stabilization is overall a good thing,” he said. “All societies need to adapt to having older populations. What really matters is the speed of change, and how fast we get from here to there.” | 威尔莫斯表示，如果没有移民，以务实和非强制措施鼓励夫妇在追求事业的同时生育孩子，以及允许60多岁和70多岁的人继续工作的政策，是应对人口负增长的关键。“总体而言，人口稳定是一件好事，”他说。“所有社会都需要适应人口老龄化。真正重要的是变化的速度，用多少时间从现在发展到那个状态。” |
OK阅读网 版权所有(C)2017 | 联系我们